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[P]
Predictions for 2002

By chipuni in Culture
Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 09:29:53 AM EST
Tags: You Know... (all tags)
You Know...

The new year is a time for predictions. Kuro5hin is a nearly perfect time box to hold our predictions: we can add to it at any time, but it's hard to remove anything.

I'd like to start an annual tradition: What do you feel will happen in 2002? I've posted my guesses (based on my American perspective) for 2002 in the main body of this text, but I welcome your predictions.


Computers

Linux will continue to grow as a server operating system for mail, the Web, and what it does now. However, by the end of the year, Microsoft will have made exclusive contracts for encrypted communications between their operating system and either a very popular game, or another major consumer device.


Economics

The Argentinian default will ripple through the world, just as the Asian crisis did several years ago. This will keep the U.S.'s economy in a recession through 2002. Europe's economy will be unstable as the Euro becomes accepted. At least one country will have their conversion rate to and from the Euro revised.

The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq will end the year about 5% below their current levels. However, at the end of the year, people will still say that "The recovery is about six to nine months ahead."


Internet

By July, a web-log will uncover a major U.S. government secret project. It will be broken first on a log, then revealed in a newspaper, and finally broadcast on television.


Politics

The Democrats will retain their narrow majority in the Senate, and they will also take over the House of Representatives. However, their majorities in both Houses will be so narrow that conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans, like now, will hold the sway over what bills are passed.


Religion

American Christian preachers will start attacking the growing number of Muslims in America. Hate crimes will continue to rise against Muslims.


War

Another major attack against the U.S. will happen by May, spurring the War Against Terrorism once more.

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Predictions for 2002 | 62 comments (58 topical, 4 editorial, 0 hidden)
Pointless (3.88 / 9) (#1)
by joecool12321 on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 03:19:18 AM EST

I'm not a particularly big fan of unjustified speculation, especially a vast amount of it. Also, there is no point. The only possible thing that could happen is that someone gets lucky, and can say "I told you so" while ignoring the countless wrong predictions. There's really no point to doing this. A much more interesting story would be about the "state of things" -- a time-capsule of ideas, thoughts and emotions. Oh wait, we already have diaries.

Don't make Rusty store needless guesses for eternity.

--Joey

Past Predictions (3.20 / 5) (#5)
by CaveMan on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 04:02:06 AM EST

I'm not a particularly big fan of unjustified speculation
But I am. I find it interesting to see what people (myself included) thought that the future would bring. "unjustified speculation" speaks volumes about a persons hopes and fears. It is similar to the "state of things" in that a prediction is often a restatement of current perceived trends. "Linux will continue to dominate the as a web server" and "Linux currently dominates as a web server" provide similar data, but the former also shows the optimism of the time.

I admit that I'm new to this forum, but it seems that a story like this would centralize a series of predictions (and resulting debate about those predictions) far better than a series of diary entries.

[ Parent ]

It's entertainment for some people ... (3.66 / 3) (#22)
by joegee on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 04:26:44 PM EST

... nothing more, nothing less.

I can understand this form of entertainment is not appealing to you, but entertainment is probably one of the most basic functions of most online communities. Why would people go to a site that did not offer them something that could benefit them, whether that benefit is association, information, or entertainment?

<sig>I always learn something on K5, sometimes in spite of myself.</sig>
[ Parent ]
About the Euro (4.33 / 3) (#2)
by ggeens on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 03:21:45 AM EST

Europe's economy will be unstable as the Euro becomes accepted.

Maybe, maybe not. Most of the international money markets work in Euro for a long time. January 1st is just the day the coins and bills will change. Having real Euro currency (as opposed to only fixed conversion rates) might actually strengthen it.

I don't expect a lot of influence outside of the conversion period.

At least one country will have their conversion rate to and from the Euro revised.

I don't see how this could be possible. The Euro has no fixed exchange rate against any currency (AFAIK). Since the national currencies of the 12 countries in the Euro zone will cease to exist, they can no longer back out.


L'enfer, c'est les huîtres.


The Euro Again (5.00 / 6) (#11)
by linca on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 10:48:50 AM EST

Not only will they cease to exist, they have already did so. The Franc, Deutsce Mark, Lira, Peseta, etc... Have stopped to exist has independant currencies in 1999. The coins were kept, but the currencies weren't traded on the international markets ; their rates were set to that of the end of 1998.

[ Parent ]
CFA Franc (3.00 / 1) (#57)
by AndrewH on Wed Jan 02, 2002 at 09:14:38 AM EST

The CFA franc is the currency of several former French colonies in Africa. Its exchange rate is fixed at 655.957F = €1.
John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr — where are you now that we need you?
[ Parent ]
Predictions Part II (3.87 / 8) (#3)
by n8f8 on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 03:27:53 AM EST

Computers

Mainstream PCs will break through the $500 barrier. AMD and Intel will continue to duke it out leading to 3Ghz demos by fall COMDEX. Apple will introduce a low end G4 to compete with the new lower priced PCs. Notebook sales will continue to soar and will drive a trend toward smaller PCs.

Due to worldwide economic recsession many vendors will consolidate in the commodity hardware and software industries.

Linux server installations will increase aided by EU adoption of the platform. Desktop installs will continue to stagnate. Windows XP sales will remain lackluster. Bill gates will clone himself and name the clone Steve Jobs.

Economics

Economic recession will continue to expand at a slower pace throughout the world. Central Asian economies will recover from the recession first and the rest of the world ecomomies will slowly follew their trend.

The music industry will continue to blame poor sales on Napster. In September the heads of all major recording studios will attend a joint conference, actually listen to the music they sell and and loudly proclaim to the press that the music just sucks.

Janet Jackson will announce her retirement from music. Six months later for the "good of the industry" she will come out of retirement. Six months after that she will again retire. On a whim she will try to start a new career in Opera only to quit, retire again and finally get back into pop music.

Internet

World governments will continue to crack down on illicit trade on the internet. Warez sites will be hounded. Porn sites will be attacked with increased enforcement of new and existing securities laws. Salon.com will be prosecuted for kiddie-porn.

Dot bomb companies will continue to consolidate or fade into nothingness.

Politics

Republicans will gain control of the Senate. Due to an ever increasing number of moderate politicians party extremists in both the Democratic and Republican parties will become marginialized.

George Bush will continue to see good poll numbers throught the Spring, but as Summer starts both national and international support for military action will begin to erode. The CIA will quietly continue the war against terrorism.

Religion

Usama bin Laden will be sighted sporadically thoughout the world. A man in Kalamazoo Michigan will earn the $25mil bounty when he goes to the corner 7-11 and discovers bin Laden working behind the counter. Mullah Omar will be discoverd a week later when he is busted by Orlando Police for ripping off Japanese tourists riding in his Taxi.

The Pope will continue to appologize for all politically incorrect acts of the Church.

Sig: (This will get posted after your comments)

Re: Predictions (4.25 / 8) (#8)
by Matrix on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 07:58:01 AM EST

I'd personally write the politics section as follows:

Politics

The Republicans or the Democrats will gain control of the Senate or Congress. Few will notice, or even care, and the impact on the quality and content on legislation coming out of both houses will be minimal.


Matrix
"...Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny. Free men pull in all kinds of directions. It's the only way to make progress."
- Lord Vetinari, pg 312 of the Truth, a Discworld novel by Terry Pratchett
[ Parent ]

2002 (4.25 / 8) (#4)
by m0rzo on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 03:33:23 AM EST

I fear that 2002 will be a destructive year. Growing hostilities between Pakistan and India could lead to the first ever nuclear war and I'm just waiting for the next terrorist attack, which I predict shall next be in my country, the United Kingdom. It will be colossal, and may even make the events of Sept.11th seem minor in comparison.

Al Quada has been far too quiet lately for a group that are being attacked full-on by the UK and USA. Their latest jihadistic attack, believed to be in the form of a sleeper known as Richard Reid, with c4 packed inside a shoe, shows that they are capable of circumventing all security procedures.

Is it really simply a matter of time, before a nuclear device is detonated in one of our cities? Or, a sinister chemical is released into the atmosphere?

I also believe that in this coming year, perhaps in February, NATO will attack Iraq in its own personal holy war against terrorism.

On a lighter note, Morpheus and Kazaa will be closed down. This will come as no surprise to most. The good news is that whatever gets closed down, will manifest itself in some other country, with far friendlier laws to information exchange.
My last sig was just plain offensive.

Don't be so sure (4.00 / 2) (#13)
by quartz on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 12:08:51 PM EST

The good news is that whatever gets closed down, will manifest itself in some other country, with far friendlier laws to information exchange

Like, say, Ukraine?



--
Fuck 'em if they can't take a joke, and fuck 'em even if they can.
[ Parent ]
My prediction (2.66 / 12) (#6)
by qpt on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 04:18:55 AM EST

In 2002, Jin Wicked and I will consummate our relationship with a 72 hour long bout of wild lovemaking.

There will be no webcast, much to the chagrin of the Kuro5hin.org community.

Domine Deus, creator coeli et terrae respice humilitatem nostram.

In retaliation... (2.50 / 2) (#27)
by ragabr on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 05:13:56 PM EST

I predict you will make love to nothing more foreign to you than your left hand.

Merry New Year. ;-)

-------
And my tongue would be made of chocolate. Mmmmm. Chocolate.
-rusty
[ Parent ]
Hah! (3.00 / 1) (#37)
by qpt on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 12:54:21 AM EST

Considering that I lost my left hand in a car accident as an infant, it would be fair to say that it is quite foreign to me.

Of course, I have no idea if that is how I really lost it. That is just what I have been told. It is a bit creepy to think about, no?

Domine Deus, creator coeli et terrae respice humilitatem nostram.
[ Parent ]

The reason I chose your left hand.. (none / 0) (#51)
by ragabr on Tue Jan 01, 2002 at 05:13:14 PM EST

is because I'm the one who took it from you. I'm also your real mother.

-------
And my tongue would be made of chocolate. Mmmmm. Chocolate.
-rusty
[ Parent ]
My Prediction (4.14 / 7) (#7)
by YesNoCancel on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 07:20:34 AM EST

I predict that 95% of all predictions will be wrong.

My stupid predicition. (4.80 / 5) (#10)
by Icehouseman on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 10:47:33 AM EST

I predict that I won't care what you predict. There's no proof it's going to happen. I will only make one predicition: the year 2002 will start on January 1 and end on December 31. What will happen between those days are up in the air.

However, in the spirit of predicting for the year 2002, I'll make mine.

1. The Pittsburgh Pirates will win the World Series.

2. The Libertarian Party will gain majorities in the house and Senate.

3. I will become a multi-billionare with some clever idea I have.

4. After I win the lottery of course.

5. The Steelers will win the Super Bowl (the most likely of all of these)

6. I'll get married.

7. Pigs will replace birds as flying animals. The birds, scared of running in to pigs will stick to the ground with the attitude: "Flying is for the pigs". Of course flying pigs will lead to many wierd things happening including up to 15 girls I knew in high school having to date me stating to me earlier that they'll date me when pigs fly.

8. I'll quite drinking.
----------------
Bush's $3 trillion state is allegedly a mark of "anti-government bias" on the right. -- Anthony Gregory
[ Parent ]

How to make predictions (4.73 / 15) (#9)
by Paul Johnson on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 09:05:33 AM EST

In the interest of improving predictions, I'd like to make some suggestions as to how to go about it. I don't make any very strong claims about their effectiveness, but I reckon they have to be better than "my favoured cause will do better"/"my hated enemy will get stronger" variety we are seeing a lot of here.

  • Trendspotting. For example, look at jobs advertised for particular technologies and see which ones are small but growing exponentially. Look for other signs of exponential growth. For example a very good way of predicting recessions is to count newspaper articles which mention them. The correlation is high, and newspaper mentions precede recessions by several months. Moore's Law is another particularly famous example of trendspotting.

    The key here is exponential growth from a small base. That indicates the start of an "epidemic" growth curve where new cases first grow exponentially, then level out, and then fall off as fast as they started. However you can never tell from the exponential phase just how far this trend is going to go. Beware unconstrained extrapolation and try instead to figure out what the potential host population looks like.

  • Identify a tipping point. This is the point at which a previously linear trend suddenly goes exponential, or a trend in one direction reverses. Tipping points are harder to spot than trends, but look for previously unstoppable things that are starting to show cracks in the armour. When Linux started showing up as a cheap odd-job server in corporate IT centres, that suggested that there might be a tipping point coming along. Bear in mind that tipping points are very hard to date, so avoid trying to put precise timescales on them.
  • Strategic analysis: look at the major players in a game (e.g. MS vs DoJ) and look at their long and short term game plans. How might the players act in the immediate future? What possible counter-moves exist? What other parties and other games might these moves affect? Don't look for simplistic winning moves. Instead look for strategic positions which leave players with lots of room for manouver, because in an uncertain world manouvering room is what lets you gain the winning position.
Hope people find this useful.

Paul.
You are lost in a twisty maze of little standards, all different.

And some predictions... (4.00 / 1) (#52)
by Paul Johnson on Tue Jan 01, 2002 at 05:40:21 PM EST

OK, I've outlined my prediction methodology in the previous article. Now to try applying it:

Western Governments will carry on abridging civil rights in the name of the War on Terror.

This is a combination of trend-spotting and strategic analysis. The trend is clear. We have the War on Drugs as a precedent, and the War on Terror is obviously continuing in the same way. Strategic analysis is a bit more sophisticated:

Like drugs, terror is a shadowy target with no way to reach anything resembling victory or negotiated peace (althoug specific terrorist organisations can be negotiated with, there is always one more terrorist who isn't party to this). The only other outcomes are loss (i.e. the destruction of western civilisation) or stalemate. Terror organisations are unlikely to have the wherewithall to bring down western civilisation, although a credible threat to nuke some unspecified cities might do the trick. Hence the most likely outcome is long-term stalemate.

In such a stalemate governments are faced with the problem of demonstrating progress to an aggreived population. Failing progress, at least they need to demonstrate zealous activity. High profile arrests and military actions are problematical, but more draconian laws are easy to pass. Hence these laws will be passed.

Note that this scenario does not require anything more than a desire on the part of government officials to do what the public wants. The public is more interested in safety than civil liberties for those perceived to be the problem.

Paul.
You are lost in a twisty maze of little standards, all different.
[ Parent ]

Just one thing.... (4.14 / 7) (#12)
by plastic on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 11:31:01 AM EST

The only thing I want out of the next year is a flying car.

I remember quite specifically being told as a child that there would be flying cars in the year 2001. Now, I understand that everyone has been very busy lately, and I know how schedules have a tendancy to slip, so I'm granting a 12-month extension on this thing. But that's it.

It had better be a good flying car, too, I'm talking Jetsons-style, no more of this crappy exploding-drops-of-fuel-makes-metal-parts-whirl-around stuff. No one wants that, even the Insight and the Prius are totally half-assed attempts to appease the hippies. Plus, they don't fly.

So there you have it. Sometime in the year 2002, someone will absolutely have to produce a flying car. Now get to work!

- plastic

Re: Flying cars (3.66 / 3) (#15)
by Wolfkin on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 01:06:52 PM EST

Well, this site claims to have such cars, but not in mass production. The problem seems to be a misguided focus on making sure that not one ever kills a pilot or passenger. Oh, and he's been pushing this design for well over 10 years.



[ Parent ]
Whether it's useful or not, it's certainly fun (3.25 / 8) (#14)
by Wondertoad on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 12:14:52 PM EST

Entertainment

The consolidation in cable system ownership will start more serious wars in licensing fees. The number of channels available for home viewers may even shrink (for the first time in how long?) as either channel operators find it hard to make enough to stay afloat OR as cable system operators drop them as the next stage in the wars.

The "next big thing" will arrive in popular music, coalescing a new youth culture - and to the amazement of previous generations, it will NOT be about rebellion, disorder, etc. but will go in the opposite direction: orderly, clean, safe, and even to be played at moderate volumes. (something apropos for the coming-of-age of the Barney generation.)

Technology

Microsoft Passport will fail to capture the interest of both the public and any large enough number of vendors to create the necessary critical mass MS needs to turn it into anything near a monopoly.

Mozilla and Mozilla-based browsers will have 10% market share by the end of the year.

World

The US will retain the backing of its international coalition while broadening the war on terrorism to at least one more country - which probably not be Iraq. Unrest will increase in smaller countries who wonder if they're next, with leaders who don't know which way to direct the public opinion.

Castro will die or become infirm and Cuba will become a Democracy. Within 5 years it will be one of the most stunning turnarounds in the world, producing not just great economic growth but remarkable achievements in the arts.

Colin Powell will architect a major peace initiative somewhere in the world and will win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Politics

The Democratic party will win seats in both houses of congress.

Ashcroft will make what is interpreted as a major mistake, will basically be told to resign, and will do so.

Ashcroft (2.00 / 2) (#18)
by Weezul on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 02:13:57 PM EST

<i>Ashcroft will make what is interpreted as a major mistake, will basically be told to resign, and will do so. </i>

Ok, the Linux zelotry had me doubting, but now I just gota say: wish List.

Ashcroft has taken and will take many many actions which historians will see as major mistakes. I would not even be surprised if he made a blunder which the public recognised. I seriously doubt that he would ever be forced to resign over his blunders though. He is Bush's token extreamist christian so he's got a pretty solid position. Indeed, his blunders are making the christians happy, so he is doing his job.
"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
[ Parent ]
Linux zealotry? (3.00 / 1) (#20)
by Wondertoad on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 04:02:22 PM EST

Any Linux zeal you find in my post is imagined by you. The failure of Passport doesn't mean anything for OSes, and neither does the success or failure of Mozilla.


[ Parent ]
Christians? (4.00 / 1) (#46)
by Matrix on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 01:02:44 PM EST

I'm a Christian, and so are a number of others I know. I knew very few people indeed who are even remotely happy with what Ashcroft's doing. And most of them are self-proclaimed athiests. I think you wanted to say 'fundamentalist extremist Christians'. There are other kinds, you know.


Matrix
"...Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny. Free men pull in all kinds of directions. It's the only way to make progress."
- Lord Vetinari, pg 312 of the Truth, a Discworld novel by Terry Pratchett
[ Parent ]

Just a gut instinct... (4.00 / 3) (#26)
by ragabr on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 05:12:14 PM EST

and I don't care enough to actually look up numbers, but I doubt Mozilla and it's descendents will come near to 10% market share.

I'm making this claim because as more computers are bought by people not already browsing, it's much more likely they'll be using IE. Alongside this, I know more people using alternatives to Mozilla and it's descendents (Konq, Opera, and many who will only use lynx or other text only browsers) on *NIX.

-------
And my tongue would be made of chocolate. Mmmmm. Chocolate.
-rusty
[ Parent ]
That's a very good point (3.50 / 2) (#31)
by Wondertoad on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 05:57:06 PM EST

And I'll almost retract the prediction.

There's one trump card still out there: if AOL is too threatened they could pull IE, which could change the horse race really quickly.

[ Parent ]
AOL Threatened (5.00 / 2) (#45)
by Matrix on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 01:00:34 PM EST

AOL and Microsoft are both going to be companies to watch this year. With both of them expanding the scope of their operations, they're going to come into conflict much more often. Microsoft's branching out into entertainment and the basic newbie net services that have been AOL's domain. And AOL, after their entry into the entertainment industry, has to be looking for somewhere else to spread to. Eventually, there's going to be some kind of conflict they're not going to be able to peacefully resolve, and they're going to start fighting. AOL's first move, I think, would be to pull IE, but what they'd use instead is still up in the air.

It'll be interesting to watch... From a safe distance, of course.


Matrix
"...Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny. Free men pull in all kinds of directions. It's the only way to make progress."
- Lord Vetinari, pg 312 of the Truth, a Discworld novel by Terry Pratchett
[ Parent ]

Not in America :-) (3.00 / 2) (#44)
by UncleMikey on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 12:30:35 PM EST

Ashcroft will make what is interpreted as a major mistake, will basically be told to resign, and will do so.

American politicians don't resign for their mistakes. They cover them up, bluster through them, or occasionally just admit, "OK, I was wrong." and then go on like nothing has happened (except, hopefully, not making the same mistake again). They cling to power, and their bosses (if they're not already at the top) let them. The American political ideal is that you support your colleagues in government even when you think they're wrong (cf. Al Gore's hypocracy in defence of Bill Clinton).

In any Parliamentary democracy, Bill Clinton would have either resigned at the first hint of scandal or been forced out by a Vote of No Confidence in his government. Questions of actual guilt or innocence would have been left for the courts. In America, because he insisted he was legally innocent (tho' morally tainted), he clung to power, and Congress was forced to impeach and attempt to convict him -- an attempt which had no chance of success, yet became a ridiculous distraction for government and the entire nation.

Ashcroft will be in office as long as Bush is, unless he violates the law in such a blatantly egregious way as to merit impeachment.
--
[ Uncle Mikey | Radio Free Tomorrow ]
[ Parent ]

politicians and a prediction... (none / 0) (#59)
by rantweasel on Wed Jan 02, 2002 at 07:34:11 PM EST

Politicians don't always resign, but appointees quite frequently do resign under threat of being fired. Look at H.R. Haldeman (Nixon staff), John Ehrlichman (Nixon staff), Jocelyn Elders (Clinton Surgeon General), etc. Haldeman and Ehrlichman in particular were entrenched, and the only reason that they left was Nixon facing such a public outcry that he had no choice but to fire them/demand resignations. Ashcroft is in pretty snug, and he has a reasonalby secure position, but there is no such thing as a politician than can't be shot down by proof of wrongdoing. He's certainly no more secure than Haldeman or Ehrlichman. (Having said that, I think that only political actions are relevant, and going after Clinton, Gingrich, and so on for having affairs is stupid and a waste of money). I don't think it's likely, though, because I think Ashcroft is smart enough to keep himself out of serious trouble.

My prediction - marijuana legalization in at least one more industrialized country by the end of the year, accompanied by further federal prosecution of medical marijuana users/suppliers in the US.

mathias

[ Parent ]
Next 10 years (4.00 / 4) (#16)
by Weezul on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 01:11:14 PM EST

We will start to see a slight move away from advertising based sales as (1) Ebay sales of new items grow, (2) "comparison" sites become more popular, and (3) advertisment blockers become more popular (and TV dies to the net).

The Biotech industry will become more importent then the computer industry and big pharma will find ways to compeat with the illegal drug trade for "entertainment drugs," i.e. Viagra, fat removers, improve your focus, and make you smarter or more creative type drugs. The countries which notice that these new drugs are "entertainment" and ban them as bad will see ever higher rates of drug abuse. The countries which allow big pharma to market anything non-addictive will have amazingly low rates of abuse for illegal drugs.

It's possible that people will figure out that the phone company is ripping them off. (A guy sitting in Australia is paying for phone calls to the U.S. when he pays his ISP, so why should he pay the ridiculous phone company rates.)

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
Well duh! (3.00 / 1) (#30)
by jabber on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 05:46:47 PM EST

The countries which allow big pharma to market anything non-addictive will have amazingly low rates of abuse for illegal drugs.

Did you ever notice how the first place you find something is usually the last place you look for it?

[TINK5C] |"Is K5 my kapusta intellectual teddy bear?"| "Yes"
[ Parent ]

Tautology (3.00 / 1) (#32)
by Weezul on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 06:17:34 PM EST

Yes, I notice that that line was a bit of a tautology, but I did not feal like explaining the following points:

1) The FDA could always force big pharma to make "Viagra" less addictive or have less side effects.

2) There would be disproportionatly less money in the illegal drug trade if the middle class users were all paying for "creativity boosters." A crack house is not a self sustaining buisness unless a lot of middle class prepies stop by to buy stuf.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
[ Parent ]
Not in 1 Year... (4.00 / 1) (#36)
by snowlion on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 12:18:36 AM EST

I think you're compressing too much; I'd give it a 4-5 year range.

Halucigenic drugs will not be accepted as entertainment by most people for a very long time. I think we'll see head connections to computers and hallucinations that way before people accept a little bit of LSD..!


--
Map Your Thoughts
[ Parent ]
read title (4.00 / 1) (#38)
by Weezul on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 01:50:51 AM EST

I said next 10 years. Also, I never said hallucinagins. I said drugs to make you more creative, smarter, more focused etc. ala coffie. That has absolutly nothing to do with hallucinogins. Understand, I'm saing that the prepies will all be taking drugs which help them achieve as opposed to pure entertainment. Clearly, there will always be a market for pure entertainment drugs, but I think the big pharmas will win in this "competition of industries." Here are some reasons:

(a) When MDMA or LSD has nasty side effects with your "coffie" will you seriously consider taking them? Indeed, the big pharma "coffie" will have little or no side effects as compaired to modern recreational drugs.

(b) When your "coffie" costs $10 per cup and really dose make you more self confident or make your breasts bigger will you be spending money on MDMA? Face it, illegal drugs are a fraud when it comes to what people really want.

The bottom line is that Americans care about far far more then getting high and getting high will suffer when it has to compeat with the kind of stuff biotech is making possible.

BTW> Big pharma may need to figure out how to market effective drugs without the need for prescription, but I think they have mastered that with the alertness pills & hair tonics they are currently selling. Plus, prescriptions for something like Viagra are vauge enough that you can just switch doctors untill you get it.

BTW2> I do not expect the War on Drugs to end in this time frame. I expect the police to be quite surprised when they are no longer making as much money off their raids. Once the cops are not making as much money, there may be serious talk about ending the War on Drugs.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
[ Parent ]
Religion (4.12 / 8) (#17)
by Neuromancer on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 01:51:32 PM EST

I know it's popular to bash Christianity as one massive hate group, but let me remind you that many preachers treasure freedom of religion, and not just their own. I have seen both preachers who wanted to protest a major local wiccan festival and preachers who defended the wiccan's rights. I strongly doubt that legitimate preachers will contribute to hate crime, but I can think of a few people with political agendas and the word reverend before their name who will.

Absolutely Right (4.66 / 3) (#35)
by snowlion on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 12:14:20 AM EST

Most Christian groups and churches that I know about in this area (Seattle) are actively defending Muslims and their temples. Many churches are calling for an end to the bombing for the purpose of food shipments. The church groups in this area are one of the largest sources of activism, it seems. (I can't speak authoritatively, I have no statistics or data. But this is what it seems like.)


--
Map Your Thoughts
[ Parent ]
Shure (4.00 / 1) (#41)
by Weezul on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 02:21:41 AM EST

but when you hear about some state banning evolution or abortion you know who did it.. just like you know who did it when a bus blows up in Jeruselum. It's almost a property of language evolution that a group is tied to it's most extream members.

Indeed, it took a pseudo civil war for the early Jewish settelers in Israel to stop their own terrorists. The IRA vs. the Real IRA is going to be a simillar story. Why should it take any less for moderate christians to reclaim their identity from the fundies?

Well fundies don't kill people (oftin) so it would not be a war, but it might take a seriously agressive advertising/smear campaign by prominent christian leaders to convince the general non-practicing public that extreamists are "wrong" and "bad."

You did not see white civil rights activists sitting around saing "Ho hum I wish those racists whites would go away" during the civil rights movement. No, there was a very agressive minority of whites who provided major assistance to the civil rights movement and were not affraid to fight (or sometimes be killed by) racists.. and effectivly cleared the name of all non-racist whites.

The name of christianity might not be cleared untill the fundies have killed a few vocally christian pro-choice activists, but a popular christian leader publicly condeming Ashcroft's prayor in the office would be a good step.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
[ Parent ]
Somewhere will get nuked in 2002 ... (3.63 / 11) (#19)
by joegee on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 03:03:10 PM EST

... Islamabad, Karachi, New Delhi, Calcutta, Bombay: I fear at least one of these cities will join Hiroshima and Nagasaki as targets of nuclear weapons by the end of 2002.

Other things: some are just extrapolations of trends or roadmaps, some are gut feelings. This is off the cuff, knee-jerk stuff, buyer beware. :)
  • al Qaeda will move violence into Europe in an attempt to weaken support for anti-terror efforts, and a major European structure (or event) will be severely damaged.
  • bin Laden will *not* be found.
  • al Qaeda will be declared exterminated, and a new organization will takes its place as the international media bogeyman.
  • The G8 will begin a modest economic recovery, but it will be slowed by Europe working to keep the Euro stable.
  • Legal challenges against anti-terror legislation will force large portions of the U.S. and U.K. laws to be discarded.
  • Israel will completely rescind concessions made during negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, and over a thousand Palestinians will die as a result of "mob control" and "self defense."
  • A cloned human will be born. A scientist will be arrested shortly thereafter.
  • At least one major satellite launch will fail.
  • Apple computer will announce a version of OS X for PC.
  • HDTV's will fall below the thousand dollar mark.
  • The God particle will not be found.
  • NASA will try to ramp up excitement about the possibilities of life on Mars and Europa in an attempt to increase funding for its planetary science missions.
  • NASA will face a choice: the ISS will face deeper budget cuts that will cause at least one major partner to back out.
  • By the end of '02 17" LCD displays will fall below $500 in price.
  • The first large size organic LED displays will debut in notebooks.
  • Chip speeds in raw megahertz will hit 3000 or greater.
  • eBay will take advantage of the recovery and seek diversification in a non-Internet related field. eBay branded 3-d real estate offices?
  • One more major U.S. air carrier will fold.
  • Microsoft will attempt to acquire a large retail chain like Radio Shack to bypass intermediaries.
I think I will hit about 80% accuracy with these. I hope with at least three of them that I am proven wrong. :/

<sig>I always learn something on K5, sometimes in spite of myself.</sig>
OS X... (4.50 / 4) (#24)
by ragabr on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 05:03:53 PM EST

most definitely will not be released for the PC. Partially because of it's continued failure to remain highly stable on it's native architecture but mostly because Apple survives by selling computer *systems*, the complete machine and and operating system closely coupled together. It's where they've maintained their niche for, well basically forever. It's extremely unlikely that they'll change this in 2002 or ever.

-------
And my tongue would be made of chocolate. Mmmmm. Chocolate.
-rusty
[ Parent ]
That one was a flight of fantasy for me :) (3.00 / 2) (#25)
by joegee on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 05:12:07 PM EST

You make good points regarding proprietary architecture, driver problems, and system sales.

I am amazed at the large number of applications that are still *not* available as native OS-X apps. Adobe Photoshop and Microsoft Office (maybe not as big a surprise as Adobe) leap to mind. I figured Apple might go somewhere with x86 Darwin other than using it to entice a few people over to the PowerPC platform.

I am not sure if x86 Darwin has the hooks necessary to add Carbon, or if it's mainly just a way of Apple saying "look, we're reaching out to everyone" and getting some free labor from the x86 talent pool.

<sig>I always learn something on K5, sometimes in spite of myself.</sig>
[ Parent ]
x86 Darwin... (3.00 / 1) (#33)
by ragabr on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 08:42:57 PM EST

I think Apple's support of them has been genuine, though they weren't completely unexpectant for publicity.

I also don't think they were ever planning on putting any real work into it.

That said, while I don't know much about the tech, I wouldn't be suprised if a OSS implementation of Cocoa gets started and even becomes moderately successful.

-------
And my tongue would be made of chocolate. Mmmmm. Chocolate.
-rusty
[ Parent ]
Cocoa / GNUStep (3.00 / 1) (#42)
by thedward on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 02:27:31 AM EST

I imagine that gnustep would be a good starting point for implementing a free software version of Cocoa. You should theoretically already be able to write programs that will compile under both fairly easily.

[ Parent ]
Getting nuked ... (5.00 / 1) (#55)
by aphrael on Wed Jan 02, 2002 at 01:58:46 AM EST

To be perfectly honest, i expected one of those to happen between Christmas and New Years; the fact that it *didn't* makes me less worried. The worst of it seems, today at least, to have passed. With luck, maybe the south Asians of the future will look at this last December as their Cuban Missile Crisis.

[ Parent ]
I concur ... (none / 0) (#60)
by joegee on Wed Jan 02, 2002 at 10:39:36 PM EST

... I think we may avoid that unhappy scenario for a while at least. Maybe, just maybe we can get India and Pakistan to sit down at the negotiating table and actually come to constructive agreements before they each end up losing hundreds of thousands of citizens. I'd be delighted to be wrong on this one.

<sig>I always learn something on K5, sometimes in spite of myself.</sig>
[ Parent ]
Another Prediction: (3.20 / 5) (#23)
by YesNoCancel on Sun Dec 30, 2001 at 04:45:03 PM EST

I predict that this prediction will be correct.

Call it an infinite prediction loop.

And I predict (4.00 / 1) (#54)
by fluffy grue on Wed Jan 02, 2002 at 12:00:11 AM EST

This prediction will not come true.
--
"Is not a quine" is not a quine.
I have a master's degree in science!

[ Hug Your Trikuare ]
[ Parent ]

Worst Episode Ever (4.00 / 8) (#39)
by Lode Runner on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 02:12:09 AM EST

Come May 2002, we're going to hear even more whining about Attack of the Clones than its predecessor.

Episode II will be pretty and it will be relatively dark, but it won't even hold a candle to geekdom's unreasonable demand for Empire Strikes Back2, a Lucasfilm production ghostwritten by J.D. Salinger (what else could he have possibly been working on all these decades?) and secretly directed by Stanley Kubrick, who faked his death so that he could focus on the task of conveying through this film paradigm-smashing ideas that could otherwise never even be articulated.

The anger generated by episode II's general failure to bring to manchildren the wonderment episodes IV-VI brought to them during their biological childhoods will be projected onto a number of specific scapegoats. Some are:

  • George Lucas, who will blow his chance to "make amends" for RotJ and PM by not taking AotC seriously as a cultural icon.

  • Anakin Skywalker qua Hayden Christensen qua the teenage Darth Vader (sic), whose cliche adolescent yearnings will make him more annoying than Jake Lloyd's Anakin and Ahmed Best's Jar Jar Binks combined. Already I cringe at the thought of the angst-ridden, pubescent Anakin, who in a fit of pique, joins the Dark Side .

  • The long and hungrily awaited Clones who won't live up to expectations.

  • Not enough Samuel L. Jackson or Palpatine or Yoda or Boba Fett

  • Too much Jar Jar
Well, y'all get the idea.

As for non-Star Wars stuff next year, I have only one word for you: Wolfram.



A New Kind of Science (none / 0) (#40)
by thedward on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 02:21:22 AM EST

I am eagerly awaiting my preordered copy. It should definitely be interesting.

[ Parent ]
Teenage Anakin (3.00 / 1) (#53)
by Michael_Cox on Tue Jan 01, 2002 at 07:07:04 PM EST

Anakin Skywalker qua Hayden Christensen qua the teenage Darth Vader (sic), whose cliche adolescent yearnings will make him more annoying than Jake Lloyd's Anakin and Ahmed Best's Jar Jar Binks combined. Already I cringe at the thought of the angst-ridden, pubescent Anakin, who in a fit of pique, joins the Dark Side.
"Screw you! I'm old enough to join whatever side I want!"

[ Parent ]
worse than I imagined (none / 0) (#62)
by Lode Runner on Thu Jan 03, 2002 at 03:48:17 AM EST

It's only January 3, and things do not bode well for episode II.

I'm afraid George Lucas has officially announceed that he's cast boy band 'N Sync as Jedi knights.

It's official.

The good news is that it's only a cameo and apparently 'N Sync gets vaporized. But I still fear what else may have creeped into the film.



[ Parent ]

Religion (2.83 / 6) (#43)
by CrazyJub on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 11:23:04 AM EST

Atheism will grow to be the largest world religion (Or non-religion, whatever) in 2002.

Gazing into my Palantir... (2.66 / 3) (#47)
by Canar on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 02:37:50 PM EST

Computing
  • The US attempts to police the peer-to-peer networks sprawling over the Net. FastTrack is shutdown, while a new, stable project begins, running on FreeNet.
  • Windows XP does well.
  • Hackers defeat XPs security measures, and the programs are distributed worldwide.
  • The PC gaming market is sparked by the XBox, which appears to be pulling a Sega.
  • More money is thrown at the XBox and advertisers.
  • Due to similarities in architecture, an anonymous programmer creates an XBox emulator, and "XBox roms" become widely traded in Warez circles.
  • A quantum turing machine is designed, with plans for it to be working by 2004.
  • ATI revamps its graphics cards' memory architectures, leading to unheard of speeds and a general perception shift among chip designers and graphics programmers.
Politics & Economics
  • The war on terrorism fades along with its public support. The anti-war protests get stronger, and the war supporters diminish.
  • Several more, albeit less extreme terrorist attacks occur to the US, one of which will be appear to be domestic, and one of which is prevented through government intervention. People begin to wonder what all the fuss was about a year ago.
  • Public support for marijuana legalization also rises, placing more pressure on politicians. One half of the Republicrat party begins to seriously consider decriminalization.
  • As a result, occurrances of club drugs occur more in the media, positively through film, and more ambivalently than previously through the news media.
  • The world economy begins to swing towards expansion again, with the US's less-than-friendly foreign policies leading to a somewhat diminished place for the nation.
  • Politics worldwide will note an increased distance between parties on the left and parties on the right, excepting the United States, where the two parties will become less differentiated. More specialist parties will take the forefront.
-=Canar=-

Actually...see how people fared last year... (4.50 / 2) (#48)
by SIGFPE on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 07:57:01 PM EST

To see how people did with last year's predictions check where I started this tradition last year.

My main question was whether or not I could put all of my mp3 collection onto a cigarette pack sized gadget by the end of 2001. I think the answer is almost (I need just over 10Gb and something like the iPod holds only 5Gb AFAIK).

As for my other questions...
NASDAQ certainly didn't recover and Palm is still going (just barely IMHO). Digital music still isn't secure (of course) and I'm yet to see a 64 bit PC. And I don't have a 2GHz machine on my desk (more like 1.5GHz).
SIGFPE

my predictions (1.00 / 8) (#49)
by Professor Mom on Mon Dec 31, 2001 at 11:37:16 PM EST

1) Everyone who posts to k5 will continue to get laid with attractive women several times per week. This applies doubly to sexy studs like ucblockhead and signal 11.

2) Everyone who posts to slashdot with a UID of less than 10,000 will also get laid on a more-than-regular basis.

3) The brilliant posters of k5 will continue to blame attacks on terrorist muslims on God-fearing Christians.

Professor Mom


Mac Office (3.83 / 6) (#50)
by gexen on Tue Jan 01, 2002 at 12:12:29 PM EST

I still don't understand why people are saying that there is no Microsoft Office for OS X...it's been out for months, Microsoft Office X. It's native, doesn't run under Classic or anything like that, and the UI topples all other versions of Office. Everything is simply superb and very stable. And since when is OS X considered not stable? I've been using it non-stop for 5 months in very cpu and memory extensive applications and have not crashed once.
-- Will Platnick
http://www.tflsolutions.com
"Finding the truth is a lot like picking raspberries, you miss a lot if you approach it from only one angle."

My predictions (4.00 / 2) (#56)
by scanman on Wed Jan 02, 2002 at 03:47:02 AM EST

Computing
  • Linux growth will pick up as it becomes easier to use, and people introduce their friends to it.
  • The Microsoft antitrust case will fizzle out under the Dubya administration.

    Politics

  • The SSSCA will pass, and Linux will become illegal in the US.
  • This will cause geeks to start a massive publicity/passive resistance campaign.
  • The "war on terror" will drag on, fueled by the herd mentality of the public.

    "[You are] a narrow-minded moron [and] a complete loser." - David Quartz
    "scanman: The moron." - ucblockhead
    "I prefer the term 'lifeskills impaired'" - Inoshiro

  • illegal and popular (3.00 / 1) (#61)
    by robotic on Thu Jan 03, 2002 at 02:19:53 AM EST

    Linux will get more popular, but linux will be made illegal? Which will happen first? (Will linux become popular because it became illegal?) -robotic
    Sig: Maybe someday...
    [ Parent ]
    My one prediction (2.00 / 1) (#58)
    by mickj on Wed Jan 02, 2002 at 12:48:59 PM EST

    Aaron Russo will get elected governor of Nevada, causing a surge for all 3rd parties in america.

    Predictions for 2002 | 62 comments (58 topical, 4 editorial, 0 hidden)
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