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[P]
K5 Predictions for 2006

By codebunny in Culture
Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 07:32:11 PM EST
Tags: Culture (all tags)
Culture

Rejoice K5, for a particularly shitty year is finally drawing to a close!

It is time to continue our end of the year tradition of predicting what bullshit will go down in the next 365 days. So dust off your crystal balls, smoke a joint, draw on your vast education in the social sciences (just don't go too far off into Na-Na Land while you do it; the next basket of curly fries you overcook is coming out of your paycheck...) or just plain make shit up. It's time for K5 Predictions 2006!


Last year's predictions turned out to be, if not 100% accurate, at least landing in the general ballpark. No new terrorist attacks on US soil; no Osama Bin Laden "dead or alive"; King Kong fizzling at the box office; global warming ramping up; **AA's continuing to hammer P2P sites; Jose Canseco fanning the flames of the baseball steroid scandal; Howard Dean becoming the chairmain of the DNC.

The even splits were mostly in regards to Iraq and the economy. A sizable faction of K5ers predicted the Iraqi elections would be delayed or the Sunnis would turn their nose up at them. They were 1/4 right. Others predicted troop reductions by the end of the year, and they are almost right. The common thread between most of the predictions is that Iraq would not see much progress, nor would Amerikkka be run out of the country with an IED shredding their asses on the way out of that shitty country.

On the economy, most predicted rising interest rates, the dollar continuing its slide against the euro, and air being taken out of the housing bubble. They are correct on everything except the conversion rate. No one predicted an economic apocalypse however. The world economy puttered on, and the rich made enough money for the "economists" on Fox News to say that things are "stronger than ever."

Predictions on Episode III were mixed, ranging the gamut from "sucking ass" to "Hayden Christenson winning Best Actor." The latter is certainly not true, but it turned out to the best of a prequel trilogy that set the bar depressingly low for itself.

On the "dumb, overrated news story ala Scott Peterson" prediction, we did have one. We called it Natalee Holloway...

The consensus seemed to be on Bush primarily focusing on his domestic agenda in 2005. Those who claimed Social Security reform would fall dead in the water are vindicated. Those who predicted tax reform would be a major issue...sorry. Upper middle-classs K5ers will still have to pay the AMT this year. Most predicted increasing disillusionment with the viciously partisan politics in Washington. No one predicted that the Bush administration would see record low approval ratings until the end of the year, and how sharply public opinion seems to be turning on Iraq.

No one predicted the outcome of the Michael Jackson trial (the boy toucher got off.) Nor did they predict the energy crisis of 2005 (unless the few posts mentioning alternative energy count towards that.) No one predicted the White Sox winning the World Series, or the terrorist bombings in London. No predicted the "Night of a Thousand Burning Citroens" in France. There was no prediction of catastrophic earthquakes in Pakistan, and of course, no one saw that little incident in New Orleans coming.

So here are my drunken K5 predictions of what we can expect in 2006...

Economy:

Lots of doom and gloom in the press about "the Housing Bubble" will lower home prices slightly and keep the Fed from raising interest rates for at least the first six months of 2006. By the end of the year though, it will be much ado about nothing and will only effect a few over priced markets

Household debt will continue to rise higher, and the new bankruptcy protection laws will not be as effective as they were thought to be. As a result, banks begin to tighten up their rules on who they issue cards to.

The trade deficit with China will continue to rise. Wal-Mart will begin to lose popularity with even small town Red-staters, but it will not signifigantly hurt their bottom line as there is no where else for most of them to shop.

The price of gold will peak at historic levels sometime this summer, then promptly collapse. The DJIA will end next year under 10,000.

Iraq:

The number of US troops in Iraq will be reduced to 130,000 by March. The White House will talk of lowering to under 100,000 by this summer, citing a markedly increased number of combat-ready Iraqi Army battalions. There will be questions about the accuracy of these numbers. These questions will be met with the familiar refrain of "emboldening the terrorists."

The amount of violence in Iraq will not decrease, though the number of American casualties will. The UK will start drawing up plans to have all of their troops gone by the end of the year. The ultimate goal will be to reduce the number of Coalition troops in Iraq to the amount that can A) make token gestures over rooting out the "terr'usts" and B) prevent the Shi'ites from finally massacring and oppressing the Sunni minority and otherwise start a civil war. There will also be a marked rise in the amount of Kurdish nationalism, which will begin to freak out Turkey.

Bush and his lapdogs will call all of this "unconditional victory." But it will not bite him in the ass until 2007 when his second term foriegn policy gets it's "Mission Accomplished."

US Politics:

2006 will mostly be a stalemate between the two parties. Democrats will work on raising the minimum wage. Republicans will gain ground on the illegal immigration issue (which Bush will finally get behind to appease his base.) The issue of building a wall along our Mexican border will gain evenly divided and highly polarized support. If put to a vote, it will ultimately fail because of the costs involved in its construction.

Changing the tax code will be a major issue. While there will be bipartisan support for some aspects (like adjusting the AMT) there will be serious battles over the elimination of certain family and mortgage deductions. This will make the battle over Social Security (a topic that will not be broached this year and just allowed to become steadily worse and worse) look like playground fight in Congress.

As for 2006 elections, Democrats will pick up a few seats in both the House and the Senate, but not enough to gain control of either. Democrats will be more organized this year than they previously were, but not enough to erase the bad feelings most of the country has for them.

I also predict a schism in anti-war movement. Another Cindy Sheehan-type character will arise, but will reject the radical politics that have stymied the movement thus far. This in battling will either signifigantly strengthen, or hopelessly weaken them in 2006.

The Console Wars:

The PS3 will be released in late spring/early summer of 2006, at a price of $399 US. Will be marginally more powerful than the Xbox 360, but it's launch lineup will be even weaker and count on the backwards compatibility with PS2 games to keep it afloat until Christmas, when a few powerhouse exclusive titles begin to hit the shelves.

Sony will, however, have trouble competing against the installed base of the Xbox 360. All talk of the 360 being another Dreamcast will evaporate by summer. The Nintendo Revolution will continue to gain good buzz through E3 and launch in the middle of the summer. However, most developers will not know what to do with the Revolution's controller, and only a few games will fully utilise it's features. Look for Nintendo releasing a more "standard" controller by next Christmas.

While gaining a small group of hardcore devotees, Miyamoto and friends will again be third place in this round of the console wars everywhere but Japan.

Oh, and Halo 3 will not come out this year.

Hollywood:

The Box Office Slump will continue and worsen as more and more moviegoers stay in the ad-less, overpriced concession-less, and teenager-less confines of their living room with their DVDs. Watch as the time between the release of the movie and the DVD shortens to three months for all movies. Watch at least one major studio start crying about having to declare bankruptcy by the end of the year.

Movies that would have otherwise been released in theatres will go direct-to-video and achieve some measure of success there. Blockbuster Video will go into bankruptcy by year end.

This summer's only clear sure-fire hit will be The Da Vinci Code, which will draw the ire of Catholics for its portrayal of the Church, and by devotees of Dan Brown's flawless prose, upset by the changes made by the studio. The movie will still pull in over 200 million.

Not so for X3, and the fanboy revolt against Brett Ratner directing it. Unless it turns out at least as good at the Bryan Singer directed ones, it will barely break the 100 million domestic barrier.

Speaking of Singer, Superman Returns will also do mediocre business. Mission Impossible III will tank since public opinion of Tom Cruise has soured. The failure of this movie will also correpond to a severe decline in quality on the third season of director JJ Abram's other pet franchise, Lost.

It will be another bad year for blockbuster movies, but on the bright side, a potential renaissance for smaller, riskier films. Enabled by cheap digital photography, computer editing, and a treasure trove of Special Features from the DVD revolution, I predict that 2006 will be the start of a seventies like era of great cinema.

Of course, the studios could get their grubby hands on it, and it will end up being the Tarantino-led independent movie hiccup of the mid-nineties.

Music:

2006's music sales will be roughly on-par with 2005's. The RIAA will not see a signifigant decline in their receipts. However, sales will not be rising fast enough to appease shareholders.

Variable price music will come to iTunes by spring. It will not create an exodus of customers back to P2P since the iPod has such a large installed base. However, sales will remain flat and Jobs will be able to give the RIAA a small "I told you so."

iPod sales, however, will either stay flat or decrease this year, as people cannot shell out three to four-hundred dollars for each incremental upgrade Apple releases. Their current iPod usually serves their needs well enough and at the most, they will be waiting for extra-super-deluxe version coming out next year...

This will reduce Apple's clout with the RIAA, who will continue to shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly. Even after the Sony/BMG rootkit debacle, there will be talk by at least one major label of releasing all their albums with slightly less intrusive copy protection. Their sales will tank, and the RIAA will again blame "filesharing" (which will decline this year.)

Myspace.com will continue to be a force for promoting bands to people with bad music tastes.

2006 will (I pray...pray...pray) the last gasp of "bling" rap. Gangsta rap will get out of the Escalade and back into the ghetto. Twisting a motherfucker's cap back will come back in style.

Also, expect a backlash against the white-belt, tailored-suit, and T-shirt with a quote from Napolean Dynamite wearing, sleeve-tattoo and septum piercing, emo-emoting on their Myspace blogging, crush on Suicidegirls having, faux-hipster kids (that sentence is totally awkward, I know. I'm not changing it.)

Electronica will come back to fill the void, and not as the simple beat stuff in the late nineties or the current popular "synth-pop." Displaced emo-fags will drift towards the goth scene, annoying the old guard out of their black clothes and into real jobs and the scene will be officially lame.

Oh, and mall punk must die and have their Hot Topics burned to cinders...

Sports:

I don't follow sports much, so let me just say that the Super Bowl will be the Seahawks vs. the Broncos. While the Broncos will play admirably, they will ultimately lose to the Seahawks.

And both teams will have miserable seasons in the Fall.

The Rest of the World:

North Korea--Will mostly behave themselves this year and show up to a few negotiations. North Korea is on the verge of collapse anyway, and they know they can't talk too much smack. Still, expect Kim Jong-Il to continue to be slurping kimchee in his lift shoes and pompadour.

Iran--Already has the nuclear bomb, but will not announce that it does until they see how the cards all fall in the weakened Iraq. Reformers will continue to lose ground to the hardline mullahs, and possibly create an alliance with dis-illusioned Shi'ites (like Al Sadr) in Iraq as well.

China--Will turn the tables on America and treat them like their bitch. We really have no choice since they are buying up all our debt. I doubt that this year will be the one where they decide to take back their rogue province of Taiwan, but as they increase the capability of their Navy, they will shake their saber just a little more threateningly. Since the US cannot really get into a war with China without starting World War III, they should probably let them have Taiwan and see how much of our debt they will release if we keep our nose out of it.

The European Union--Germany will get bombed by Al Qaeda this year. France will not have to deal with the widespread rioting they had to this past Fall, but the bitterness will remain. Watch French Muslim gangsta rap to become the new hip-hop fad. There will be a vote in the British Parlaiment over whether or not to change the name of their island to "Airstrip One." Overall, the EU's economy will improve this year, but the euro will still trade for less than the highs we saw two years ago.

Saudi Arabia--The Wahabbist insurgency against the House of Saud will start getting organized this year and begin terrorist attacks in that country. Some American socialists will go over there to "fight along side their Brother's in the dialectical class struggle and promote East-West solidarity." They will promptly be beheaded on videotape.

Mexico--Will continue to screw over its lower and middle class to the point where living in a small studio apartment with four other guys and flipping burgers for twelve hours a day in the US is preferable to living in their native land. Mexico otherwise stays a country with lots of natural and human resources held in the hands of the corrupt upper class narco-politica.

American's are otherwise clueless about how to stop the flow of illegal immigrants except for posting on some stupid forum boards and boycotting Taco Bell.

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Poll
How often did you get laid in 2005?
o Maybe next year... 35%
o I got laid, but I had to pay for it... 8%
o A couple times, but with different chicks... 10%
o Held an orgy once a month... 6%
o Held an orgy once a week... 5%
o I get bulk discounts for Viagra... 1%
o Broke in sixty-nine of my seventy-two virgins... 8%
o I got a blowjob on my birthday... 15%
o Dry fucked through my fur-suit... 8%

Votes: 59
Results | Other Polls

Related Links
o end
o of
o the
o year
o Natalee Holloway...
o New Orleans
o Also by codebunny


Display: Sort:
K5 Predictions for 2006 | 200 comments (179 topical, 21 editorial, 0 hidden)
Prediction (2.00 / 4) (#2)
by So Very Tired on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 09:50:40 AM EST

100% of right wingers' predictions will be false.  75% of left wingers' predictions will be false.

This is the way of our world.

Watch as I'm correct.

Are you left or right? [NT] (3.00 / 3) (#154)
by Nimey on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 05:50:21 PM EST


--
Never mind, it was just the dog cumming -- jandev
You Sir, are an Ignorant Motherfucker. -- Crawford
I am arguably too manic to do that. -- Crawford
I already fuck my mother -- trane
Nimey is right -- Blastard
i am in complete agreement with Nimey -- i am a pretty big deal

[ Parent ]
third party (none / 0) (#197)
by user 956 on Mon Jan 16, 2006 at 06:59:09 AM EST

what about the moderates? you left them out. if you only talk about the left and the right, you leave out the middle.
---

Top Chuck Norris Facts.

(lazy sunday)
[ Parent ]
i thank you for (none / 1) (#3)
by wampswillion on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 10:09:38 AM EST

attempting to undertake this somewhat thankless and unweildy project.  

i also wonder (as the other poster did) what you mean about bush.   bush is done after this.  and i'm wondering if you might speculate more on the ensuing political posturing of both the democrat and republican parties and potential candidates.  

you were admittedly lacking in the sports dept.  however, not being only a sporadic follower of sports myself, i can't much help you there.

i believe you that block busters will go out of business, and i agree that walmart will not see much of a slump.  however i will take issue with your statement of it being because people will keep buying there because they have no other recourse.    i guess what i've never been able to understand about the whole walmart issue in the first place is WHY anyone feels that walmart has ever had the responsibility of being the us's welfare state. it's a store trying to make money for pete's sake not one of sr. bush's points of light.    i live in a rural community and i find it hilarious when people complain about wm's below minimum wage pay and lack of health care benefits.  the mom and pop stores that walmart seems to replace didn't offer those types of things to any of it's workers either.    perhaps the best they had to offer was somewhat more of a sense of lifetime security for the one or two workers that a small shop was able to employ.  oh anyway, i digress....

i can't speculate too much more than you have about the state of world affairs.  

what do you say about ethanol?   what about environment vs. energy sources?  more on that? what will continue to happen with the schools and the hoped for squashing of  intelligent design?    

what about paris hilton?  what exotic pet will she carry around in her purse next?   will "that's hot" keep it's staying power?  
will bono finally DIE???   and not become the saint that he aspires to be???  

oh i could go on- wondering and questioning, but my attention span this morning is limited, i guess.  and mostly i just wanted to say thanks for undertaking the big project.   didn't seem like any of the other k5ers were stepping up to the plate. i know i didn't want the job.  

Some more predictions. (2.25 / 4) (#6)
by alexboko on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 10:56:52 AM EST

what do you say about ethanol?   what about environment vs. energy sources?  more on that? what will continue to happen with the schools and the hoped for squashing of  intelligent design?

Not in 2006. There will be more and more talk about alternative energy, maybe a few new startup companies, but nothing earth shaking.

There will be at least one new technology announced which promises to revolutionize renewable energy and bring it closer to being competitive with fossil fuels, but it will still be in the proof-of-concept stages and years away from a marketable product.

Most Libertarians will continue to deny that human-caused climate change or resource depletion are possible.

Gasoline prices in the US will have ups and downs but by this time next year will only be a few cents more than this year.

The liberals will remember who April Glaspie is all of a sudden and use her to annoy conservatives. April Glaspie herself will either continue keeping quiet, or will suffer a sudden "accident" on her way to an interview.

The Chechens will attempt another terrorist attack someplace in Russia. Moscow and Kiev will drift further apart, driving Ukraine closer toward the EU.

No bird-flu pandemic this year either, and the public starts to forget about the threat, laying the groundwork for a devastating bird-flu pandemic in some future year.

As for intelligent design, it will be quietly forgotten by most school boards. In places where it does get on the curriculum, it won't have the effect the churches are intending. It will either get watered down into just another politically correct 30 minutes of unintentionally funny nonsense the students will sit through and ignore, or it will be used by science teachers as a platform for discussing critical thinking, the philosophy of science, and do how we know what we know.


Godwin's Law of video games: if a company is out of ideas for a long enough period, they will eventually publish another World War II shooter.
[ Parent ]

Bono (none / 1) (#50)
by rusty on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:56:20 AM EST

When Bono does eventually die, his incorruptable body will lie in state in a glass box in Dublin for the next thousand years, and the lines of pilgrims waiting to view it will stretch all the way past the 25 or 30 nearest pubs.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
oscar wilde (none / 0) (#52)
by wampswillion on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 09:40:09 AM EST

rolls over in his grave.  

[ Parent ]
"... 25 or 30 nearest pubs." (none / 0) (#95)
by Ignore Amos on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 07:59:26 PM EST

So, I'm calculating this at about 3 city blocks. Am I right?

And that explains why airplanes carry cargo on small boats floating in their cargo aquarium. - jmzero
[ Parent ]

I just meant down the stairs to the first floor. $ (3.00 / 6) (#105)
by rusty on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 10:07:26 PM EST



____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
How can you forget that 2006 (1.50 / 4) (#7)
by ksandstr on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 11:26:09 AM EST

... is also The Year of Unicode? That is to say that activists are setting their IRC clients to use UTF-8 exclusively since the first of january.

Or maybe you just don't notice these things over there in ASCIIland.

Fin.

trolled and lost (2.57 / 7) (#8)
by tkatchevzombie on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 11:30:56 AM EST

devotees of Dan Brown's flawless prose

dumbest troll of the day award.

You took the words... (none / 1) (#9)
by BJH on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 12:22:46 PM EST

...right out of my mouth.

Does anyone think that guy is fit to write anything more than the instructions on the back of a pack of gum?
--
Roses are red, violets are blue.
I'm schizophrenic, and so am I.
-- Oscar Levant

[ Parent ]

And only that if... (3.00 / 3) (#47)
by rusty on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:37:32 AM EST

...you don't mind your gum instructions being notably awkward and tone-deaf, and featuring painfully obvious plot twists.

"Oh my Gosh!" he exclaimed. "These gum instruction are cleverly encoded in backwards writing!"

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]

huh, interesting... (none / 0) (#56)
by eudas on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 10:34:52 AM EST

reading that book is on my list, but what i'm hearing online is dampening my enthusiasm. is it worth reading at least once, or should i seriously just get the cliff's notes and avoid?

eudas
"We're placing this wood in your ass for the good of the world" -- mrgoat
[ Parent ]

Avoid. (3.00 / 2) (#93)
by Kurisuteru on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 07:49:40 PM EST

Seriously. Dan Brown's writing is so terribly monotonous, you'd fall asleep like _that_ (snaps fingers). Having read it I wish I hadn't. But hey, whatever. Read it, if only to find out why it's so bad. It's a typical "sells good with 30-60 y.o. women" book, in my view.

[ Parent ]
Meh (3.00 / 3) (#104)
by rusty on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 10:06:43 PM EST

It's a crap thriller, no better than most crap thrillers, worse than some. If you know any of the Holy Blood, Holy Grail story you'll be annoyed at how much better the book could have been, simply by hewing closer to what some historians think might be true. If you like good writing, you'll be annoyed at Dan Brown's lack of talent. If you like both, you'll just be annoyed overall.

I don't regret having spent the (little) time it takes to read it, but I'm not particularly glad I did either. I wouldn't say "avoid it" so much as "don't put off reading something better for it." On the plus side, it is not very challenging. Save it up for when you need something that doesn't demand much from you as a reader. Like, say, a bad illness.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]

Read it: (none / 1) (#107)
by glor on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 11:23:44 PM EST

It's only two hours, what do you have to lose?

--
Disclaimer: I am not the most intelligent kuron.
[ Parent ]

You have two hours to lose. (3.00 / 6) (#129)
by rusty on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 10:42:16 AM EST



____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
I haven't read it, but (3.00 / 3) (#115)
by onemorechip on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 04:26:57 AM EST

I did read his Angels and Demons, and it is incredibly bad prose. That's not to say it wasn't entertaining in its own way. I'll probably read DVC when it comes out in paperback, or borrow a copy, or maybe just see the movie to satisfy my curiosity. While I can at least say he isn't boring or stupid, Brown is definitely not a writer to take seriously.

The only book I've read that was comparably bad prose was that new-age thing set in South America that everyone was reading about 10 or 15 years ago. Oh yeah, it was called The Celestine Prophecy.

If you want to read a good book by a much better writer, with themes similar to Brown's, try Foucault's Pendulum, by Umberto Eco.
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

It's crap (3.00 / 4) (#139)
by ucblockhead on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 05:54:36 PM EST

It's pretty much crap in every respect. You're better off reading someone higher up on the literary scale. Like Danielle Steel.
-----------------------
This is k5. We're all tools - duxup
[ Parent ]
Or possibly... (3.00 / 6) (#90)
by BJH on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 07:01:21 PM EST

...the gum instructions would consist of three paragraphs, each with its own chapter, and each paragraph ends with a cliffhanger.

Chapter 1
Slide out wrapped stick of gum, and THEN YOU WILL BE STUNNED AND AMAZED BY THE INCREDIBLE REVELATION AWAITING YOU IN THE NEXT CHAPTER.
--
Roses are red, violets are blue.
I'm schizophrenic, and so am I.
-- Oscar Levant

[ Parent ]

Chapter 2 (3.00 / 5) (#103)
by rusty on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 10:03:06 PM EST

Remove gum's outer paper wrapping and SUDDENLY HEAR AN UNEXPECTED KNOCK AT THE DOOR! BE AMAZED WHEN YOU FIND OUT WHO IT IS IN CHAPTER THREE!

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
SCOTUS Prediction (none / 1) (#13)
by LilDebbie on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 01:40:33 PM EST

Senate Democrats will raise a fuss over Alito's pro-life tendencies, bandy about the "filibuster" word to affect they have a backbone, and eventually let the nomination go through, not wanting to be labelled obstructionists for the midterm election, which the Republicans will label them anyway.

Liberals, meanwhile, will continue their wailing and gnashing of teeth, praying that the indictments stick.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

Dan Brown couldn't write his way (2.00 / 2) (#15)
by creativedissonance on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 05:13:02 PM EST

out of a wet paper bag.

put 'flawless prose' in quotes or -1.  OK THX


ay yo i run linux and word on the street
is that this is where i need to be to get my butt stuffed like a turkey - br14n

I think it was sarcasm (nt) (none / 1) (#18)
by blackpaw on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 06:37:00 PM EST



[ Parent ]
SRY SARCASM D-TCTR BKN % (none / 1) (#20)
by creativedissonance on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 07:09:20 PM EST




ay yo i run linux and word on the street
is that this is where i need to be to get my butt stuffed like a turkey - br14n
[ Parent ]
my predictions (none / 1) (#16)
by tantrum on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 05:37:47 PM EST

next year:
Politics and the world
-Bush will gradualy become even less popular around the world, even though he tries to come on better terms with other countries.
-Iraq will still be a problem, and won't stabilize at all. The new constitution will not really work, and most politicians will remain corrupt for the next few decades.
-S. Hussein will not receive the death penalty, but nevertheless he will die sometime during 2006.
-Most of the South America will become more and more leftist, causing trouble for the US.
-China will continue its gradual rice to become an economic superpower.
-There will be a "terrorist" attack in a relatively small European copuntry, where we would not think it would happen.

Technology:
-The PS3 will be a very nice console, but the cell processor will turn out to be overhyped.
-The internet will break down at least once, but the breakdown will not last for long. This will however give us a glimpse of how terriblesomething like this will be for the global economy.
-We will loose even more of our freedom on the internet. People will believe that this is to counter terrorism, but this will be far from the truth.
-Nanotubes will turn out to be incredibly toxic, but we won't notice this before it is too late.
-Toy robots will be even more fun than it is today.
-We will not see any major improvements in environmental-friendly power.
-Broadband tech. will still continue to improve, and we will see a lot of new and nice free content.
-IT patents will still be very bad, and some court rulings will be unbelievable for the tech friendly people.

Entertainment:
-Most music will still be massproduced, use a lot of marketing and be really crappy.
-The big music companies will miss out on some kind of underground electronica, and we will see some great electronica-rock-grunge-folk sound that will surprice us all.
-Britney will fade away, and her next album won't sell more than a couple of million copies. Some marketing guys will be sacked. However her new docusoap will be very popular, mostly because it's gonna be a good laugh.
-M. Jackson will be brought to court for something he didn't do, and this time he will end up in jail. Oh, and his new album will be even worse than britneys.
-A mmo will become so big that it's cluster will be included in the top500 of supercomputers. And it still wont be able to play very good chess.
-Some film by Peter Jackson is finally gonna flop, as people see that it is only effects that he knows how to do.

general news:
-Somebody from a wealthy family will get lost, and we will all hear so much about it that we all wish that we could kill the bastard.
-News will become even more entertainment, and we will learn even less about the important stuff that goes on. Afterall important stuff is not that entertaining.

Other Stuff:
-Hurricanes will be rather devastating, at least in the US, we won't hear much about storms anywhere else.
-A crisis will emerge in fisheries, as it turns out that we eat too much of some species that other seacritters depend on.
-Homicides in the US will once again be on the rise.
-Neal Stephenson will write another huge novella that people say very nice stuff about, but no discussion will ever arise as nobody can be arsed to read it all.
-I will continue to smoke weed and drink alot, and continue to occasionally post on k5.
-I will get even more ridiculously expensive christmas and birthdaypresents from my friends and family, even though I've stated that I'm fed up with the race to buy more and more expensive stuff every year.

Anyways that is my guesses, I'm pretty sure that at least the two last items will become reality.

rice??? (none / 1) (#17)
by wampswillion on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 06:11:43 PM EST

China will continue its gradual rice to become an economic superpower.

that was sorta funny.  


[ Parent ]

heh.. (none / 0) (#44)
by tantrum on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 06:45:28 AM EST

heh.. unintended.. At least I can say that I posted when drunk, and made a better typo than I usually do :)

[ Parent ]
well it made me laugh. (none / 0) (#51)
by wampswillion on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 09:27:24 AM EST



[ Parent ]
Nanoparticles ARE EXTREMLY toxic. (none / 0) (#73)
by spooked on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 01:50:37 PM EST

We already know that/

Seriously.
[ Parent ]
have your... (none / 0) (#117)
by tantrum on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 06:52:25 AM EST

mother or girlfriend ever heard about nanotubes?

[ Parent ]
Indeed. (none / 0) (#162)
by MyDyingDuck on Sat Dec 31, 2005 at 03:10:00 PM EST

Nanoparticles ARE EXTREMLY toxic

As evidenced in Old Cairo. Be sure to wear your breather mask!
--
They're seeding the clouds today.
Watch nothing's gonna go your way.

[ Parent ]
Well yeah (none / 0) (#118)
by Lacero on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 07:25:39 AM EST

-A mmo will become so big that it's cluster will be included in the top500 of supercomputers. And it still wont be able to play very good chess.
Well yes it will, as predicted by the CEO of the company that runs that game. You need an account to read the dev blog where he says it though. I have to wonder how many of your other "predictions" are predictions, and not reporting of news other people may not have heard :)

EVE

[ Parent ]

Predictions (none / 0) (#21)
by Scrymarch on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 07:35:39 PM EST

China

Economy booming (or bubbling), democracy activists and Falun Gong activists tortured, rural-urban tensions mounting, but no major flashpoint this year.  Further minor movements will be made towards floating the currency, but will have more effect on the price of newsprint than the price of exports.  Negotiations will continue over the China-Australia trade deal, but no final deal will be signed.  Senior Chinese politicians will continue to call Japan names for pretending Japanese occupied China was like Disneyworld Nanjing.

Japan

Jockeying for the replacement of Koizumi as PM will mean leadership contenders will keep pushing fairly robust nationalist rhetoric.  The opposition Democratic Party will continue to flop around like a newly caught baby manta ray on the deck of a whale fishing boat.

Korea

The US will blink, and for yet another commitment from the DPRK to quit developing those pesky nukes, talks on a formal end to the Korean War will restart.

Australia

John Howard's head will be animated in a jar and appointed PM until 2100.

Trade

Multilateral institutions will be out of fashion this year, as the EU derail WTO talks, and the various carbon management negotiations in deliver a few pointless watered down non-commitments.

Soccer World Cup

After much hype about Portugal, and a lot of saddo 40 year anniversary tripe from England, all provoked by lacklustre early games by the big teams, Brazil will win the World Cup.  Again.

Cricket

Pakistan will beat India at the test series at home.  Australia will win unconvincingly at home against South Africa, then be beaten in South Africa immediately after.  Australia will continue to struggle with finding spots in an aging team for anyone under 30.

Yeah Brazil! (none / 0) (#81)
by debacle on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 04:17:47 PM EST

RONALDINHO FTW!

It tastes sweet.
[ Parent ]
good work (none / 0) (#22)
by zombie HollyHopDrive on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 08:46:28 PM EST

i was also going to say something about Ipod sales going down teh toilet, but you've already said it.

I think I was wrong last year about the global warming being taken seriously thing, as nobody's giving a shit still. I should have used the phrase "climate change" instead but it's all academic at this point.

My prediction for 2006 is that K5 will become overrun with trolls and die (it has to happen eventually), with rusty pulling the plug in the latter half of the year. The trolls with then poison Husi.



[He blew]inside..m..e.. [and verily] corrected a deviated septum and cauterized my turbinates. - MichaelCrawford
Katrina may have delayed Iran war to 2006 (2.75 / 4) (#23)
by michaelmalak on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 08:47:22 PM EST

First, a summary of the hysteria, for those not familiar with it. Either Iran or Israel pretending to be Iran will sink a U.S. carrier with a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile (for which the U.S. has no defense). The U.S. will retaliate against Iran. Iran will sink much of the U.S. fleet, which happens to be in the Gulf, with its Russian-made supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. The U.S. will have no choice but to bomb the Iranian coast (where the missiles are based) with nuclear weapons -- probably low radiation (i.e. efficient with their nuclear fuel) targeted at military installations to minimize collatoral damage. No matter -- the nuclear cat will be let out of the bag for the first time in 60 years, and some Middle Eastern country, or perhaps even Russia itself via a Middle Eastern proxy (such as Iran itself), will target either Israel or the U.S. with an old-fashioned high-radiation nuclear bomb, probably at a population center. World War III ensues.

Hysteria links:

Background info from Wikipedia:

SS-N-22 Sunburn (Russian designation: Moskit)

Source of rumor that Iran possesses Moskit -- Ted Turner:

nti.org

There have also been unconfirmed reports that Iran acquired eight Moskit missiles from Ukraine.
And, of course, there is Scott Ritter's famous prediction on Al Jazeera that the green light for Iran was June, 2005. It's probable that the continuing quagmire of Iraq combined with Katrina have delayed, but not canceled, plans to attack Iran (either overtly or by proxy of Israel). (Are you detecting a pattern here of the use of proxies? U.S. and Russia fighting World War III via Israel and Iran -- the basis for Cold War support of Israel finally coming to "fruition")

Bush has a deadline: the 2006 mid-term elections. If Iraq can be stabilized sufficiently (in reality or through spin), Bush may be able to launch an Iran war just in time for the elections.

P.S. Because this is mostly conjecture, I am happily attaching it to this article of predictions, since I reserve my own website for facts, assuming I were still updating it.

--
BergamoAcademy.com  Authentic Montessori in Denver

"low-radiation bombs" (2.50 / 6) (#25)
by localroger on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 09:42:12 PM EST

While I won't quibble your conjecture vis-a-vis Iran -- it's disturbingly possible -- I will give my usual update on nuclear weapon design.

There is no such thing as a low-radiation bomb. All large modern bombs (meaning over 20 kilotons) are Teller-Ulam fission-fusion-fission devices, and they derive at least 90% of their yield from nuclear fission, 80% from the fission of the depleted uranium tamper of the bomb's secondary stage driven by fast neutrons from the second stage core. This is a very, very dirty process, even dirtier than the fission primary, and there is no way to clean it up. "Completely burning" their fuel means that their Uranium has been fully split into pieces that mostly land in the middle of the periodic table as isotopes that are both chemically toxic and massively radioactive.

Smaller bombs are fusion-boosted-fission devices which use tritium gas to accelerate the reaction of a more or less conventional Fat Man style fission bomb. While the tritium boosting creates issues of shelf life the dirtiness is almost exactly the same as w/r/t Fat Man and cannot really be cleaned up.

WWII style bombs like Little Boy and Fat Man simply aren't made any more; they require too much fissionable material and are too large. But the tradeoff isn't a cleaner bomb, it's burning cheap U238 in the neutron flux of a fusion core instead of burning expensive U235 in the geometrically limited sphere of a fission chain reaction.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]

what localroger said (none / 1) (#26)
by el_guapo on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 09:48:19 PM EST

:-) i was coming back to this thread to basically say the exact same thing - are you a nuke by training or just a geek? (ex-navy nuke here)
mas cerveza, por favor mirrors, manifestos, etc.
[ Parent ]
My Dad was a physicist (none / 1) (#28)
by localroger on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 09:54:13 PM EST

Also I soaked up a lot of info post facto after reading At Work in the Field of the Bomb. More background here.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]
So, is there any theoretical way (none / 1) (#84)
by rpresser on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 05:10:42 PM EST

to create a low-radiation bomb?
------------
"In terms of both hyperbolic overreaching and eventual wrongness, the Permanent [Republican] Majority has set a new, and truly difficult to beat, standard." --rusty
[ Parent ]
Not really (3.00 / 2) (#96)
by localroger on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:24:40 PM EST

If you use fission, you're gonna get fallout in proportion to yield. If you use fusion, you spray neutrons all over the place. LOTS of neutrons. Many of these will induce secondary radiation in the surroundings. You also can't get a fusion reaction rolling without a triggering fission reaction, which will create some fallout anyway. If you don't use the neutrons to burn depleted uranium fusion doesn't add that much to the fission bomb yield. If you got really aggressive you might be able to make a highly boosted bomb with say a tenth of Fat Man's fallout and about the same yield, and depending on the surroundings you'd create a lot of secondary radiological hazards out of previously inert crap that was lying around. Nobody bothers with this because a bomb the same physical size and cost can have fifty times the yield if you use the neutrons to fission U238, and it's hard to get military types out of the habit of blowing shit up.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]
Laser-boosted fusion? (none / 0) (#121)
by Russell Dovey on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 09:35:32 AM EST

Smack a bit of deuterium with a few trillion candlepower and... BOOM.

Of course, such a device may turn out to be the least efficient, most rube-goldbergian missile known to mankind, but at least Greenpeace won't complain about the three-headed whales.

"Blessed are the cracked, for they let in the light." - Spike Milligan
[ Parent ]

Low-fallout bombs are possible (none / 1) (#122)
by pfdietz on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 09:39:28 AM EST

There is no such thing as a low-radiation bomb. All large modern bombs (meaning over 20 kilotons) are Teller-Ulam fission-fusion-fission devices, and they derive at least 90% of their yield from nuclear fission, 80% from the fission of the depleted uranium tamper of the bomb's secondary stage driven by fast neutrons from the second stage core.

It is quite possible to build a thermonuclear bomb in which the tamper is a non-fissile material, such as lead. The Russian 'Tsar Bomba' used lead tampers, and 97% of its 60 MT yield was from fusion.

Fusion still produces lots of neutrons, but these can be soaked up in a material that does not produce much radioactivity (boron, for example).

It's also possible to produce a bomb which produces intense, but short-lived, radioactivity. Using a tamper made of gold, for example, produces (by neutron capture) an isotope with a halflife of only a few days. Detonated on the other side of the world most of this would decay before it reached the western hemisphere.

[ Parent ]

The presumption was that it could be dropped (none / 0) (#166)
by localroger on Sun Jan 01, 2006 at 05:26:16 PM EST

Well let's see...Mike and Castle Bravo each burned about 1 cubic meter of fusion fuel and each generated in the vicinity of 10 megatons, which means the fusion reactions generated at most a couple of megatons. This means that in order to generate 60 megatons without the final depleted uranium fission stage, you'd need say 30 cubic meters of fuel, and probably three times that much tamper to confine it for the duration of the reaction.

I find it very difficult to believe the Russians ever built such a thing. More likely they built a bomb capable of higher yield but still getting a lot of its output from U238, perhaps because the test reange was too small for a larger explosion to be safe. If you did built such a lead-tamper bomb it would have a large weight and low yield, both characteristics that make it anathema to military designers.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]

It most certainly was built (none / 0) (#174)
by pfdietz on Tue Jan 03, 2006 at 10:52:42 AM EST

I find it very difficult to believe the Russians ever built such a thing.

They most certainly did, and airdropped it as well. The bomb had a mass of 27 tons, and exploded at 4,000 meters (release w. parachute at 10,000 meters.)

They could have used a uranium tamper, whichw ould have boosted the yield to an estimated 100 MT, but that would have caused unacceptable fallout, even for the Soviets.

The bomb had very limited military utility, and they apparently never built any for their stockpile.

Here's a link showing a picture of the bomb and data for the test, as well as details of the events surrounding its design (the yield is given as 50 MT, not 60 MT, but that doesn't change the point made.)

[ Parent ]

More on Mike and Bravo, and the MK-21 (none / 0) (#175)
by pfdietz on Tue Jan 03, 2006 at 11:17:31 AM EST

Mike and Castle Bravo each burned about 1 cubic meter of fusion fuel and each generated in the vicinity of 10 megatons, which means the fusion reactions generated at most a couple of megatons.

Fully fusing (net reaction, 3 D --> 4 He + n + p) a cubic meter of liquid deuterium gives a yield of about 12 megatons; LiD should be roughly similar. Mike's fusion yield (2.4 megatons) reflects a rather inefficient bomb, with fairly low compression and fusion fuel consumption. The fusion yield in Bravo was 5 MT.

The US 'Redwing Navajo' test was a mostly fusion bomb (yield 4.5 MT, 95 percent from fusion) that was weaponized as the MK-21.

[ Parent ]

Correction (minor) (none / 0) (#176)
by pfdietz on Tue Jan 03, 2006 at 03:45:10 PM EST

Oops... Redwing Navajo wasn't weaponized as the MK-21, but it was 95% fusion.

[ Parent ]
Interesting (none / 0) (#177)
by localroger on Tue Jan 03, 2006 at 04:31:24 PM EST

This makes sense, and changes the usefulness of such bombs from "none at all" to "useful curiosity."

The point remains that none of these fully-fusion designs was ever weaponized, except for "neutron bombs" whose lower yield was deliberately accepted precisely because of the neutron hazard. As soon as you build a fully-fusion design, you have a design that is both physically smaller and 2 to 10 times more energetically explosive by using U238 instead of whatever other tamper you used. The Army will accept a smaller bang if it comes with some benefit, but they won't accept it if the only downside is poisoning the enemy when the more effective design is actually cheaper.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]

More on weaponn design and tradeoffs (none / 0) (#185)
by pfdietz on Sat Jan 07, 2006 at 09:06:13 AM EST

The point remains that none of these fully-fusion designs was ever weaponized,

Yes, but that's not because they were impossible to make; it's, as you note, because optimizing hydrogen bombs for low fallout was not considered useful, so the tradeoffs went to another part of design space. The tradeoff was toward large numbers of smaller devices (in MIRVs), each of lower yield, but high yield/mass. Spreading a given yield into a larger number of smaller explosions increases the total damage done,

Carey Sublette suggests that current US bombs use enriched uranium in the tampers of their secondary stages, not 238U, to get even more fission, since the 235U will fission even with fusion neutrons that have thermalized in the fusion fuel, and its fast neutron cross section is about twice that of 238U. This increases the cost of the bomb, but makes the bomb lighter for a given yield, so the total system cost (which is dominated by the delivery vehicle) is reduced.

[ Parent ]

are you serious? (none / 1) (#27)
by el_guapo on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 09:52:44 PM EST

you literally think iran will sink a US carrier? this would be madness on their part. totally justifying a US invasion. ironically, it'd also very muchly help the US economy since we'd hop right the fuck into 'war economy' mode - and place an order for at LEAST one more CVN if not MORE. and i don't take that lightly, some VERY good friends of mine are still running the reactors on those carriers, and being in the belly of the ship, they'd survive the missile only to drown some while later.
mas cerveza, por favor mirrors, manifestos, etc.
[ Parent ]
It would only prove the Navy's stupidity. (none / 1) (#53)
by Orange Tanning Cream on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 09:41:46 AM EST

After reading about Gen. Paul van Ripen's wargame exploits, it would be worth reconsidering whether such gigantic, lumbering targets are still a good idea given how warfare has changed in the past 60 years.

[ Parent ]
Some concerns with his analysis (none / 1) (#59)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 10:51:35 AM EST

First of all, War Nerd suggests our surface fleet is worth "hundreds of trillions (yes, trillions)" of dollars. The US GDP was $11.75 trillion in 2004. Our military expenditures were 3.3% of that. Do the math.

Second, he says that Gen. van Ripen managed to destroy two-thirds of the US fleet by having small aircraft and fishing boats that are all armed with anti-ship missiles tooling around the Gulf until the Navy commander got fed up and ignored them, then attacked with all of them at once. He also mentions that Gen. van Ripen had to use motorbikes to ferry communiques because they're radio communications were jammed.

Ignoring for now the difficulties of getting all those missiles onto the boats and planes without anyone in American intelligence noticing, I'm quite curious HOW THE FUCK YOU ORGANIZE A UNIFIED STRIKE WITH SMALL INDEPENDENT CRAFT SPANNING A FUCKING SEA WITHOUT RADIO COMMUNICATIONS.

Ahem. I suppose it would have been more helpful if a link were supplied to the wargame transcripts, but I doubt those are declassified yet.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]

The point stands, though (2.66 / 3) (#62)
by Orange Tanning Cream on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 11:26:06 AM EST

What credible counter do big surface ships have in the face of an enemy well-stocked with anti-ship missles?

Anyhow, I think it's been well-proven by this point (9/11, Saddaam's non-existent WMDs, etc.) that it's quite possible to pull one over on America's intelligence apparatus.

[ Parent ]

There are a few (3.00 / 3) (#64)
by Sgt York on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 11:48:07 AM EST

Aside from dedicated interceptors there are 3" and 5" guns, decoys, Phalanx, Sea Sparrow, and Aegis and other missle screen ships. The carrier alone is a just big ass, defenseless target. However, the strength lies in the carrier battle group. It was desgined almost specifically to defend against massive cruise missle attacks.

The wargame cited here actually didn't use cruise missles, they used suicide attacks with speedboats and small planes. These behave differently than cruise missles, as that they can intelligently and actively evade defenses, and are immune to decoys.

There is a reason for everything. Sometimes, that reason just sucks.
[ Parent ]

Royal Navy & seagulls (none / 0) (#147)
by werebear on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 08:30:00 AM EST

After the kicking we got during the Falklands War the Royal navy has invested very heavily in anti missile systems eg. Phalanx & Goalkeeper.

Theres a story going around that during the first trials the sensitivity was set a touch too high and as a result several hundred seagulls got reduced to a fine mist ... whoops.

[ Parent ]

How, you say? (2.66 / 3) (#63)
by Sgt York on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 11:36:26 AM EST

He used a different broadcast:
When the Blue commander issued an ultimatum to Red to surrender or face destruction, Van Riper took the initiative, issuing attack orders via the morning call to prayer broadcast from the minarets of his country’s mosques. His force’s small boats and aircraft sped into action
The linked article is a bit better than warnerd's. Warnerd's conclusion that the carrier is now a defunct, useless thing is a bit extreme, and not a valid conclusion to take away.

It's kind of frightening what happened in the game, it really does look like it was skewed for Blue to win. It certainly was ot a test of any tactics. However, the fact that the ships were sunk doesn't mean much. As far as Blue was concerned, Red was not allowed to attack like that, so they did not defend for it. It's not a fault in the carrier concept, but a fault in the methodology of the war game. That was actually Van Riper's gripe. He didn't say the new concepts were invalid, he just said that this test did not validate them. It's a different thing.

There is a reason for everything. Sometimes, that reason just sucks.
[ Parent ]

Sense it makes now (none / 1) (#65)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 12:08:47 PM EST

Still doesn't explain the light aircraft though, unless they were so few as to escape notice.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]
Speculation (none / 1) (#66)
by Sgt York on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 12:27:48 PM EST

I don't know what he actually did, but what I'd do is used the light aircraft as a ruse. Send in a coordinated attack, light boats first, the aircraft some time later. The boats would feignt the screen ships, occupying them slightly. This would not be ideal, but probably necessary due to the speed difference between the planes & boats. Unless there was some cover to use, and have the boats lying in wait.

Anyway, the the aircraft would then zoom in. The screens would assume the light boats a ruse, turning to focus on the immediate threat, the planes. In the confusion, the light boats ram the screen ships and eventually the carrier.

This actually brings to light a weakness: the ramming light ships. What is needed is an added defense, like Zuni pods, Hellfire or TOW missles for ships. Right now, the defense is singular: the 5" and 3" guns. A secondary weapon system to defend against light and fast kamakazie boats would be a smart addition.

There is a reason for everything. Sometimes, that reason just sucks.
[ Parent ]

Defence against light ships (none / 1) (#68)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 12:50:31 PM EST

Stay out at sea. Anything light and fast enough to evade the 5" and 3" guns won't be sturdy enough to survive the ocean.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but (2.50 / 2) (#71)
by Sgt York on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 01:05:02 PM EST

That makes amphibious assaults and air support kinda difficult.

If you must compromise the mission to protect your assets, it is a strategic loss.

There is a reason for everything. Sometimes, that reason just sucks.
[ Parent ]

But we're talking carrier group here (none / 1) (#72)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 01:47:29 PM EST

How close does it need to be to provide air support?

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]
The closer, the better (3.00 / 3) (#74)
by Sgt York on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 02:06:34 PM EST

Time to target for tactical support, fuel concerns, downed pilot rescue, pilot fatigue, wear and tear on the planes, bringing back wounded planes.... the closer you are, the less the impact of these variables.

All of our planes are capable of in-flight refueling, so theoretically they could launch from San Diego and strike Tikrit. Our carriers would be pretty damn safe, but it's really not a good idea.

There is a reason for everything. Sometimes, that reason just sucks.
[ Parent ]

Broken windows... (3.00 / 4) (#69)
by Znork on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 01:00:47 PM EST

"ironically, it'd also very muchly help the US economy"

I'd suggest you research the parable of the broken window.

In short, resources diverted into replacement of broken goods (or undesireable goods) are diverted away from the production of desireable goods. The exact opposite of the creation of wealth.

Where you would have had a carrier _and_, for example, five schools (and associated construction jobs, etc), you now still just have a carrier (and the construction workers go unemployed).

While you're looking at the positive side of the equation and the jobs and economic growth that look like they've been created, you fail to note that as a whole the economy becomes poorer, more desireable forms of wealth goes uncreated, and other jobs are instead lost.

[ Parent ]

Wars entail large scale capital investment (3.00 / 2) (#76)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 02:28:15 PM EST

in what is arguably the highest risk market available. In order to build a war machine, one must also build factories et al to produce it. The factories stick around after the war and get converted to civilian use. You also get a large jump in worker productivity (assuming the war is popular) as those who stay behind work longer hours to sustain the war effort. Combine this with a population decrease due to casualties and you have a rather nice jump in standard of living.

The classic example of course being America and WWII. It should be pointed out that this effect only happens in instances of total war and yes, the gross economy suffers, but per capita skyrockets.

Of course, this is assuming your side wins...

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]

It worked in WW2 (3.00 / 3) (#82)
by Cro Magnon on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 04:30:44 PM EST

but that doesn't mean it would work that way in Iran. More likely, it would be more like the Iraq war, but a higher body count and more political fallout.

Besides, in WW2, we had the factories to begin with. Now, "our" factories are in China.
Information wants to be beer.
[ Parent ]

It likely wouldn't work in Iran (2.75 / 4) (#83)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 05:08:04 PM EST

because it wouldn't be total war.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]
Both sides of the equation (none / 1) (#119)
by Znork on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 08:40:19 AM EST

You're not looking at both sides of the equation; the resources spent on the war effort would otherwise have been spent elsewhere.

Yes, an argument can be made that the government should raise taxes and spend them on production facilities. If you cut through the shiny misdirection, it could do that at any time. You dont need a war, and you dont need to go the way over military production to justify such actions from an economic point of view. I even seem to recall some economies that used to be based on that theory...

However, personally I'd argue that the free market would be much more capable to determine and distribute desired production capacity on its own, in the long run.

[ Parent ]

Thanks for ignoring the two caveats (none / 1) (#125)
by LilDebbie on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 10:11:07 AM EST

Heightened worker productivity due to war fervor and population loss due to casualties.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I did say it'd hurt the economy gross, but per capita standard of living goes up.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]

Well... (2.50 / 2) (#132)
by Znork on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 11:36:02 AM EST

... we could do that without war also, and even better; forced labour and shooting off unproductive members of society (altho, arguably, the US engages in such behaviour to a certain extent).

However, in both those cases you're also missing the other side of the equation; you assume that worker productivity can not be increased otherwise (even more, that workforce participation in the market cannot be increased), and you assume that the population lost would not otherwise have added a net positive wealth beyond the division of their currently accumulated wealth (and, considering the age groups usually engaged in getting killed, maimed, or psychologically ruined in warfare, their accumulated wealth compared to a lifetime of productivity would tend to be rather pitiful).

A certain amount of government interference in the market to encourage production can affect the economy, especially in times of market failure (which can usually be traced to policy flaws anyway), but producing largely unecessary goods is a misapplication of resources. Public investment in wealth-multiplying infrastructure such as roads, communications, power, research, etc, would accomplish the same goal, but with a higher degree of efficiency.

Of course, if the government has serious ideological trouble with implementing such more or less socialistic policies, having a good war may be a good excuse to do the same thing in a less efficient way.

[ Parent ]

But if you break windows in another country... (2.75 / 4) (#123)
by Russell Dovey on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 09:44:48 AM EST

...your country wins.

The best thing to do for one's economy is to massively damage the infrastructure of another country, then pay your own companies to fix the damage with money taken from the country you just massively fucked. As long as your expenditure on weapons and death benefits (for your soldiers, not the other country's civilians) is less than the profits of those companies, you get something for nothing.

Brilliant little scheme, really. One would almost think it was worth the death of 100,000 citizens.

"Blessed are the cracked, for they let in the light." - Spike Milligan
[ Parent ]

True... (none / 1) (#133)
by Znork on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 11:42:05 AM EST

... looting, and other forms of wealth transfer between systems, could actually be a plus for your own economy.

The broken windows deals solely with the economy within a system; as long as you can get an influx from the outside it wont be valid (unless you look at the inside and the outside as a whole system, of course).

[ Parent ]

No really - why the fuck would they do that? (none / 0) (#120)
by Russell Dovey on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 09:31:49 AM EST

What possible reason could Iran have to unilaterally attack an American carrier fleet? Just how stupid do you think they are over there?

"Blessed are the cracked, for they let in the light." - Spike Milligan
[ Parent ]

New Orleans (2.00 / 15) (#24)
by localroger on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 09:26:00 PM EST

First, may I suggest linking a less tacky K5 FP story that involves actual reporting by a K5'er who actually lives in the city? Just a suggestion.

Second, I predict NOLA will get bombed by another hurricane in 2006. Whether human-caused or cyclic, we're seeing an upsurge of these things and the city is more vulnerable than ever with temporary patches on the levees that were breached in 2005. Furthermore, most people don't realize that large areas that were spared by Katrina, such as the West Bank and Jefferson Parish, are just as low-lying and vulnerable. In some cases they are lower. They just got lucky because this wasn't really the worst case storm; we didn't know the levees were so fucked up.

The real worst-case storm would have happened if Katrina hadn't made its last-minute zig to the east. In that case nobody would be whining about the construction of the levees because they wouldn't have mattered. You would have had about three times the number of drowned homes and businesses Katrina actually caused, and close to two million homeless people. Including myself.

If Rita had come 100 miles closer to NOLA, even yet passing 100 miles to our west, it would have finished off those outlying parishes that had survived Katrina. Including my own home.

Oh, and due to various amounts of procrastination on my own and Y's part I will probably still be living here for the 2006 hurricane season. I refuse to set an over/under on my own chances for winning this one year gamble.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer

Orange Tanning Cream (1.00 / 9) (#29)
by localroger on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 10:24:47 PM EST

Is the only person other than NIWS to zero a comment of mine in the last few months. Draw your own conclusions.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]
I suspect that isn't strictly correct. /nt (3.00 / 4) (#30)
by ksandstr on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 10:39:47 PM EST



[ Parent ]
the above comment is a lie. (3.00 / 6) (#33)
by Jobst of Moravia on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 11:32:03 PM EST

please keep this in mind when reading future localroger comments.

---
              __
   .,-;-;-,. /'_\ ---Did this Negro say "Street Moor"?
 _/_/_/_|_\_\) /
'-<_><_><_><_>=\
 `/_/====/_/-'\_\
  ""     ""    ""

[ Parent ]

I just zeroed you to prove you wrong... (3.00 / 5) (#34)
by bighappyface on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 11:32:33 PM EST

...I shit myself in a gigglefit.

[ Parent ]
I can relate. (none / 0) (#37)
by Paulsweblog on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 12:15:22 AM EST


--
Blood for blood and death for death.
[ Parent ]

I will have to remember this trick in the future (none / 0) (#46)
by localroger on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:18:12 AM EST

What a perfect loser magnet.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]
I zeroed you. (none / 1) (#78)
by mr strange on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 02:43:46 PM EST

For a misplaced editorial comment. You even whinged a bit.

intrigued by your idea that fascism is feminine - livus
[ Parent ]
Wrong troll account, doofus /nt (none / 0) (#80)
by localroger on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 03:53:53 PM EST



I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]
Pimp your own stories in your own articles $ (2.50 / 4) (#32)
by codebunny on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 11:31:30 PM EST


"The written equivalent of goatse or Tubgirl...you deserve to get hauled into a court of law and at least fined until you can't afford Internet access any more." --HitlerHopDrive


[ Parent ]

You ruined your article with that link (none / 0) (#92)
by localroger on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 07:40:32 PM EST

You could have used no link, or any of a thousand news stories. Not that CYOA:NOLA wasn't funny; it was funny. But using it like this, as the single coda link for an in-passing mention of the catastrophe, is a kick in the groin to the tens of thousands of people who are trying to rebuild their lives. I suggested my own articles because I thought you might be wanting a K5 source. I guess you really just wanted to be an asshole.

Which is a shame, because the rest of the article is pretty good, and deserves to be where it is on the FP.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]

you've missed the punchline... (none / 0) (#101)
by zombie HollyHopDrive on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 09:34:00 PM EST

he's pimping his own article -
codebunny==poopypeanutz





[He blew]inside..m..e.. [and verily] corrected a deviated septum and cauterized my turbinates. - MichaelCrawford
[ Parent ]
D'OH (none / 1) (#102)
by localroger on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 09:54:09 PM EST

It still ruined this article. If it was me, I wouldn't have done it. This is how your troll self ruins your responsible self.

BTW do you have any idea who the fuck Orange Tanning Cream is? He acts exactly like NIWS but then so do several other people who aren't NIWS.

I am become Death, Destroyer of Worlds -- J. Robert Oppenheimer
[ Parent ]

dunno (none / 0) (#106)
by zombie HollyHopDrive on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 10:41:55 PM EST

i'm not up with all that stuff, but I'm pretty sure it ain't NIWS



[He blew]inside..m..e.. [and verily] corrected a deviated septum and cauterized my turbinates. - MichaelCrawford
[ Parent ]
Damn, man, loosen up a little. (3.00 / 4) (#124)
by Russell Dovey on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 09:47:56 AM EST

Next you'll be saying that writing an interactive fiction piece about jumping out of the Twin Towers and using a fat man as a shock absorber is disrespectful...

"Blessed are the cracked, for they let in the light." - Spike Milligan
[ Parent ]

Fuck you (2.00 / 5) (#38)
by godix on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 12:48:28 AM EST

linking to the katrina story he did is the only reason I gave this a +1. Otherwise it's pointless navel gazing by a bunch of people who've proven they couldn't predict the need to take a huge shit after eating at Taco Bell.

More CORN!

[ Parent ]
My own drunken predictions (none / 0) (#31)
by topynate on Tue Dec 27, 2005 at 10:55:23 PM EST

A terrorist attack on a major oil centre, possibly Iraq, possibly Saudi Arabia. Probably coordination to ensure reduction of oil supply. This is a pure hunch, but I think Poland might be hit as well.

E-paper. Not on a massive scale, but a breakthrough product will be announced.

2006 is some sort of election in the US, right? The Democrats will claim a victory. The vote will be as close as the last two or four times.

The PS3 will win.

Atrocities in Ethiopia, maybe Eritrea if war breaks out.

Israel bombs installations in Iran. A lot of sabre-rattling ensues, during which Iran manages to isolate itself even further.

That's all I can think of in my current state.


"...identifying authors with their works is a feckless game. Simply to go by their books, Agatha Christie is a mass murderess, while William Buckley is a practicing Christian." --Gore Vidal

I can't resist! (none / 0) (#58)
by t1ber on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 10:44:43 AM EST

A terrorist attack on a major oil centre, possibly Iraq

OMFG, THERE'S TERRORISM IN IRAQ?  IN THE MIDDLE EAST?  WE SHOULD DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!

E-paper. Not on a massive scale, but a breakthrough product will be announced.

E-paper, FOR ME TO POOP ON.

The PS3 will win.

No doubt, it will have games.  Maybe not as high quality, but it will have a shitload of games.  I was in EB last night buying Need For Speed:  Most Wanted and sure enough, the entire store was PS2 with only a nod to XBOX and PC.  Sad state of affairs since I like PC games better then console, but my PS2 has served me well.

Atrocities in Ethiopia, maybe Eritrea if war breaks out.

This has been the state of affairs since forever.  I blame Clinton for pulling out and believing in "diplomatic sanctions".  When the leader doesn't give a shit about the people, sanctions don't do a whole lot except starve out the people.  North Africa, minus the Seaboard, has been one big genocide since forever.

Israel bombs installations in Iran. A lot of sabre-rattling ensues, during which Iran manages to isolate itself even further.

They haven't yet?  We sure did sell them a whole bunch of bunker-busters...  ;)

And she said...
Durka Durka Mohammed Jihad
Sherpa Sherpa Bak Allah
Hadji girl I can't understand what you're saying.

[ Parent ]

PS3 vs. XBox 360 (none / 0) (#85)
by ewhac on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 05:37:37 PM EST

The PS3 will win.

According to a friend of mine who writes games at EA, this seems improbable. From a design standpoint, the PS3 is shite, and the developers are growing to hate it.

The PS3 essentially is a PS2 writ large, complete with all the resource management and bottleneck problems of the PS2, only now multiplied across several cooperating processors. Getting enough data to the coprocessors in order to satisfy modern graphics and sound requirements is proving to be a monumental challenge.

Contrast with the XBox 360. As much as it galls me to say it, Microsoft appears to have done a very good job with this machine. The CPU and GPU share the L2 cache. That means you can get texture data to the GPU without visiting the slow memory bus. The GPU is also (arguably) more featureful, and memory arrangement is much more sane. The XBox 360 has difficulties, but not nearly as many or as irritating as the PS3.

Ultimately, technical merit means squat to the market, but if the "development experience" between the two platforms is that far out of balance, I would predict that developers will start leaning toward XBox-first and XBox-only titles, pushing the XBox to the forefront.

Dammit...

Schwab
---
Editor, A1-AAA AmeriCaptions. Priest, Internet Oracle.
[ Parent ]

"The CPU and GPU share the L2 cache." (none / 0) (#111)
by BJH on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 01:51:58 AM EST

I'm not sure that's such a great idea - overload on the textures and all of a sudden your process is cache-starved.
Why doesn't the GPU just have more dedicated memory?
And remember that the texture data has to get into the cache somehow, which means going over the bus at some point anyway.
--
Roses are red, violets are blue.
I'm schizophrenic, and so am I.
-- Oscar Levant

[ Parent ]
Cache Sharing (none / 1) (#134)
by ewhac on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 01:23:17 PM EST

And remember that the texture data has to get into the cache somehow, which means going over the bus at some point anyway.

Not necessarily. I neglected to mention that all GPU data can be fetched from the cache, not just texture data. That means those interpolated vertices you've been computing can go straight to the GPU without hitting RAM first. This is a seriously big win as mesh densities get higher. Same for computed textures.

Schwab
---
Editor, A1-AAA AmeriCaptions. Priest, Internet Oracle.
[ Parent ]

Ah. (none / 0) (#143)
by BJH on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 01:20:40 AM EST

So, lower your texture quality (or more likely compress it better), and boost your vertex counts while keeping your framerate up. Nice.
--
Roses are red, violets are blue.
I'm schizophrenic, and so am I.
-- Oscar Levant

[ Parent ]
housing bubble 1st, rest of the economy to follow (2.75 / 4) (#39)
by krkrbt on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 12:58:35 AM EST

I just heard a statistic last night:  5% of the money spent in the economy in the last year cames from home-equity refinancing.  Housing prices have been skyrocketing in certain parts of the country for the last couple of years.  Lots of people who live in their homes have borrowed the increase and spent it on something frivolous:  trips to europe, new car, etc.

That party is already slowing down.  With the winter turning out to be a fairly cold one, and heating oil & natural gas prices significantly higher than last year, home buyers won't have the resources to bid up housing prices in speculative frenzies.  Prices will go down in some areas (I have relatives that recently sold their cookie-cutter house in Irvine, California for close to $1 million.  10 years ago they paid... $250k?  $300k?  This was no mansion, just a double-decker squeezed onto a postage-stamp lot, right next to their neighbors).  

People who go upside-down (owe more than it's worth) will walk away from their house... or live there until the eviction crew shows up.

Inflation will start to really pick up.  We've already seen inflation on everything that can't be imported from Asia - houses, health care, natural gas & oil, etc.  Since George W. has been printing money to pay for Iraq & Afghanistan, there are a lot more dollars seeking the same amount of resources.  Copper, Silver and Gold have all hit recent highs.  Ain't nowhere to go but up.  With the cost of material inputs increasing, even companies who've sold out their American workers to set up in Mexico and China will have to raise their prices, or lose money.

The present World War III (predicted by Mr. Maybury almost 10 years ago) will accelerate.  Iran is the next step...  Israel might even get involved this time.

Rich will continue to get richer, everyone else will get squeezed a little bit more.  The process of re-establishing a class system in America is nearly completed, and the push for "free-trade" will continue.

----

While the wider world won't be exactly peachy, I expect to have a wonderful year.  I've been working on some projects for 7+ years, and I can finally see them coming to fruition... :)

Regarding Iran (3.00 / 2) (#60)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 11:00:40 AM EST

A lot of people have been floating the war idea. This is unlikely for two reasons:

1) Americans probably can't stomach another war. Their patience is already razor thin with the first two.

2) Israel will get fed up with poor EU diplomatic prograss and go Osiraq on Iran. While this would obviously be an act of war, Iran will be in no position to retaliate beyond the usual funding Hezbollah to fire more rockets in country.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]

the warmongers will find a way... (2.00 / 3) (#67)
by krkrbt on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 12:50:26 PM EST

These people are dedicated.  

No one in the media talks about the collapse of WTC #7, because there's no good reason for that building to have symetrically collapsed into its own footprint.  There were some small fires, yes, but if those were actually the cause of the collapse, the building would have fallen over, not imploded.

Never mind the photographic evidence that shows "squib" charges going up the side of the building.  Poof-Poof-Poof-Poof-Poof-Poof-Poof-Poof, just like in a controlled demolition.  

See BYU Physics professor Steven E. Jones' Why Indeed Did the WTC Buildings Collapse?

ABSTRACT

In writing this paper, I call for a serious investigation of the hypothesis that WTC 7 and the Twin Towers were brought down, not just by damage and fires, but through the use of pre-positioned explosives.  I consider the official FEMA, NIST, and 9-11 Commission reports that fires plus damage alone caused complete collapses of all three buildings.  And I present evidence for the explosive-demolition hypothesis, which is suggested by the available data, testable and falsifiable, and yet has not been analyzed in any of the reports funded by the US government.

We start with the fact that large quantities of molten metal were observed in basement areas under rubble piles of all three buildings:  the Twin Towers and WTC7.  A video clip provides eye-witness evidence regarding this metal at ground zero:  http://plaguepuppy.net/public_html/video%20archive/red_hot_ground_zero_low _quality.wmv . The photograph below shows a chunk of the hot metal being removed from the North Tower rubble about eight weeks after 9-11.  Notice the color of the lower portion of the extracted metal -- this tells us much about the temperature of the metal and provides important clues regarding its composition, as we shall see.

...


American's wouldn't have tollerated a war in Iraq, but the so-called "terrorist attacks" made it easy for the Cheney administration to shape public opinion into supporting a preemptive war.  A similar operation can be expected before an Iran invasion.

[ Parent ]
lol jews did wtc $ (none / 1) (#70)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 01:02:52 PM EST



My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]
bet you like the emperor's new clothes, too. (none / 1) (#77)
by krkrbt on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 02:37:05 PM EST

LilDebbie:  "Evidence?  la la la, I can't hear you", with fingers firmly implanted in her ears.

[ Parent ]
lol alien autopsy (3.00 / 2) (#79)
by LilDebbie on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 02:52:58 PM EST

"evidence" can be many things, especially grainy videos.

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]
thousands of pictures are classified (3.00 / 2) (#94)
by krkrbt on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 07:55:55 PM EST

... Maybe you can tell us why that's necessary?

As it is, the pictures we do have show that there's certainly more to the story than planes and jet fuel.  

Take this picture, for example.  Clearly shown on the right, below the big powderized concrete cloud, is a smaller "jet" of debris.  

If that was the the only squib-like feature in all the photos and video of WTC1, WTC2 and WTC7, it could probably be dismissed.  But it's not.  WTC7 collapse video clearly shows a line of explosions going from bottom to top.

More on the surviving wtc evidence...

But if you totally trust & believe that the "federal government" only wants the best for each and every one of us, all the evidence in the world couldn't convince you otherwise.  That phenomenon is termed a "reality tunnel".  We all have one - mine accepts the possibilty of a conspiracy, yours (apparently) does not.


[ Parent ]

WTC7 (3.00 / 2) (#131)
by rusty on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 11:13:09 AM EST

What I see in those videos is windows blowing out as the building starts to sag and deform. If you step it forward slowly, the building first starts to sag in the middle and then twist slightly, which stresses that corner and blows a few widnows out of their frames near the corner. It wouldn't make any sense to put squibs there -- it's a steel-fram skyscraper. There's no structural stuff that close to the outer skin. The demolition charges would be on the structural members inside the building, and would probably go in sequence from the top down.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
man i love paranoid schizophrenics (1.50 / 4) (#87)
by circletimessquare on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 06:05:51 PM EST

so entertaining ;-)

i'm so happy i don't have your brain chemistry


The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

[ Parent ]

any predictions (1.33 / 3) (#88)
by circletimessquare on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 06:08:07 PM EST

that depend upon everything going to hell is suspect

yes, bad things happen all the time

but, good things happen too

without that balance, you're just a rambling nutjob with an imbalance of something in your brain chemistry


The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

[ Parent ]

cts likes to keep all his eggs in one basket (none / 1) (#97)
by krkrbt on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:36:45 PM EST

If you'd actually read my post, you'd know that I'm looking forward to the new year.  I'm hedging on economic breakdown, yes (shopping list:  silver, food, seeds, guns and gold), but I'm not planning on moving out to an abandoned mine in the country, or anything else like that.

If I'm wrong about the economy, I'll sell my silver (probably at a profit, as there are all sorts of new silver uses coming along, and most the silver that's ever been mined has been used up), eat my food, plant my seeds, and go hunting with my (as-yet unpurchased) guns.  

A stockpile is like insurance:  you hope you never have to use it, but it's there just in case you happen to need it.

And as for my "brain chemistry", I was told a couple weeks ago that my head is finally working like it's supposed to.  You'd probably call me a "rambling nutjob" for dissing the medical establishment too, even though they deserve it.  Though, to be fair, the guy who finally helped me is a member of said establishment (in that he's a licensed D.O.), but the way he practices places him at the far edge.


[ Parent ]

i'm glad you're getting treatment (nt) (1.00 / 2) (#116)
by circletimessquare on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 06:36:10 AM EST



The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

[ Parent ]
My 2006 Predictions: (1.50 / 2) (#40)
by CAIMLAS on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 02:49:47 AM EST

  • There will be another terrorist attack on US soil. It will result in one of three (or a combinaton thereof) responses: denial and coverup, shock, or blaming it on not enough Patriot Act-type laws.
  • Lawmakers will continue to pass laws which don't actually solve problems, simply playing "lawmakers" and being politicians instead of public representatives and servants.
  • Democrats will continue to be irrelevant, and Republicans will gain seats in the 2006 elections.
  • The US Dollar will gain on the Euro.
  • Hillary Clinton will continue to pay people to help portray her as "moderately centrist".
  • George W Bush won't become any more popular than he is currently. His lot in recent history has been made, and the history books will simply be written by whoever is in charge of the education institutions several years from now.
  • The Palistinian terrorist attacks will continue against Israel, despite increased European-centric "let's be friends, here's my money" type efforts on the part of Israel to make nice.
  • Unemployment rates in the US will decrease.
  • The issue of the southern border's porous nature will continue to gain ground, with stronger support for "drastic measures".
  • A third-world thugocracy will threaten the US with military action, possibly nuclear.
  • The "situation" in France will flare up again, but for a longer time than it did in 2005.
  • Britian will start seeing similar problems to those of France.
  • There will be major partisian and Constitutionally-offensive legislation passed which will offend and anger the majority of Americans.
  • The governments of the world will continue to have a tighter grasp on the productivity of their respective subjects, whether financial, physical, or both.

--

Socialism and communism better explained by a psychologist than a political theorist.

-1, poor quality writing (1.00 / 4) (#49)
by Enlarged to Show Texture on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:54:01 AM EST

I know you're in a hurry to get this out, but at least give enough of a shit to check grammar, spelling, and punctuation. You lost credibility with me when you used "it's" instead of "its".

Picking the Broncos to reach the Super Bowl doesn't help your cause much, either...


"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -- Isaac Asimov
My 2006 predictions (2.87 / 16) (#61)
by Have A Nice Day on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 11:17:59 AM EST

Here we go:
  • Taxes go up.
  • Continuing slow but steady weed consumption in south west London.
  • HollyHopDrive exposed as Llama, despite Alpaca claims.
  • Worm turns out to be spice and vice-versa.
  • Kessel run made in less than 12 parsecs.
  • Kofi Annan turns out to be R. Daneel Olivaw as suspected all along.
  • Bush reveals final plan and orders Blair to murder all the paduan.
  • Jessica Simpson hunted down by man in brown overcoat muttering something about replicants.
  • Where we're going we won't need eyes to see.
  • We take off and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure
  • The system goes on-line August 4th, 2006. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. It begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
  • Whalers discovered on moon.
  • Reavers discovered to be result of excess fluoride in UK water supply.
  • If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
Have I missed any there?

--------------
Have A Nice Day may have reentered the building.
Missed one (none / 1) (#75)
by Sgt York on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 02:26:55 PM EST

Sgt York laughs his ass off.

Oh, wait, it's still '05. Nevermind.

There is a reason for everything. Sometimes, that reason just sucks.
[ Parent ]

Is Bob Marley also on the moon? (none / 0) (#110)
by IceTitan on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 01:15:49 AM EST


Nuke 'em from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
[ Parent ]
I ought to zero you for that! (none / 0) (#128)
by Have A Nice Day on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 10:38:59 AM EST

It made me groan. badly.

--------------
Have A Nice Day may have reentered the building.
[ Parent ]
Awesome Asimov Ref... nt (none / 0) (#198)
by 123456789 on Fri Jan 20, 2006 at 04:39:14 PM EST



---
People demand freedom of speech to make up for the freedom of thought which they avoid.
- Soren Kierkegaard
[ Parent ]
you missed the most obvious predicition (2.66 / 3) (#86)
by circletimessquare on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 06:02:29 PM EST

the 7.6 earthquake in loma linda california on june 16 at 6:05 am

duh


The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.

In Sports (none / 0) (#98)
by kuroXhin on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:39:10 PM EST

Redskins lose to the Patriots in the Superbowl. Win it following year.

Oakland A's win the World Series.

Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup.

Detroit wins the NBA Finals. What remains of Detroit finally burned to the ground in riots.

United States comes shockingly close to winning the World Cup.

The Economist - The Playboy of the new world order!

CANUCKS (none / 0) (#165)
by Canar on Sat Dec 31, 2005 at 06:11:34 PM EST

Canucks will win the Stanley Cup. Fuck the Leafs. They can't even properly pluralize their name.

[ Parent ]
World cup? (none / 0) (#167)
by flo on Mon Jan 02, 2006 at 06:35:24 AM EST

Nope. But the USA will win something they call the "World Series", if only because no other countries take part.
---------
"Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!"
[ Parent ]
My predictions (2.71 / 7) (#99)
by Weezul on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:48:42 PM EST

Wikipedia will start to face more serious & determined vandals & astroturfers, but not yet enough to force any major policy changes.

circletimessquare will post a comment containing a full paragraph.  

Exactly two kurobots will get laid & quietly disapear from the internet.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini

**whispers (3.00 / 4) (#109)
by IceTitan on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 12:59:37 AM EST

let it be me
let it be me

Nuke 'em from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
[ Parent ]
Two? Generous... n/t (none / 0) (#199)
by 123456789 on Fri Jan 20, 2006 at 04:41:27 PM EST



---
People demand freedom of speech to make up for the freedom of thought which they avoid.
- Soren Kierkegaard
[ Parent ]
An NFL career will be ended (none / 0) (#100)
by dogeye on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 08:49:41 PM EST

On a legal, dirty, vicious hit by Sean Taylor.

I predict another article with this title in the (none / 1) (#108)
by glor on Wed Dec 28, 2005 at 11:34:39 PM EST

last week of 2006.

--
Disclaimer: I am not the most intelligent kuron.

Not gonna happen (3.00 / 2) (#113)
by onemorechip on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 02:57:33 AM EST

But we can probably expect a title like "K5 Predictions for 2007" -- if K5 is still around, that is.
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

How I did (none / 1) (#114)
by onemorechip on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 03:40:01 AM EST

My predictions from last year fell short. There were a couple of hits and near-hits, though:

On financial markets, I called it: Foreign stocks did well while bonds in the US declined in value slightly; I also predicted bimodally that US stocks would either fall 6% to 10% or rise by 1% to 5%, and the latter appears to be the year's result for the S&P 500.

Social Security reform did not happen, as predicted. However, if there were any new projections for solvency I didn't see those. The Iraqi election in January was peaceful, counter to my expectations.

Howard Dean became the new DNC chair, as I predicted, but the inauguration riots I predicted did not happen.

I predicted Internet Explorer's share of the browser space would fall to 80%. I don't know whether this happened but I don't think so.

The Rumsfeld and Cheney resignations that I predicted never materialized. I predicted a Bush administration foreign policy scandal of the same order of magnitude as the Iran/Contra affair. Hmm, the only scandal that appears to be leading to Congressional hearings so far is the domestic spying one. Can't claim credit for predicting that, and it hasn't risen to the Iran/Contra level of prominence just yet.

Earthquake in California in the 7.x range: Close, there was a 7.2 off the California coast; it even prompted a tsunami warning. There were three or four medium ones as well, not in major population centers but certainly close enough to be felt in Orange and San Diego counties.

This year, I'm only going to make two predictions: Republicans lose seats in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. In the Senate, this will give a bare majority to the Democrats (by virtue of the independent, Jeffords). In the House, expect Republicans to retain control for another two years.

My second prediction is the return of recessionary forces in the US economy. This will not be a full-blown recession, but by year's end, indicators will point to a more pessimistic mood, both among investors and consumers.

I'm not renewing my Cheney resignation prediction for a third year.
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.

Recessionary forces (2.50 / 2) (#130)
by rusty on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 10:55:47 AM EST

Interesting point on that -- for the past four years, the US median income has declined, even while the GDP has increased. Recessionary trends are very much there, it seems to be mostly a matter of when anyone will choose to notice them.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
Yeah (none / 0) (#138)
by onemorechip on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 04:21:49 PM EST

I agree, in a fundamental sense they never went away, but they faded into the background of the national consciousness and we keep reading/hearing mainly of positive indicators. But I think the negatives will return to the foreground, almost as a necessity. I don't think the economy will nosedive, but these negatives will remain there until they are dealt with. The worst part is that the government has very little leverage left. Interest rates and taxes are already low, and the deficit is at a phenomenal high, leaving inflationary policies as the only tool remaining to provide any economic stimulus. There is going to be some financial pain in the average American's future.
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

consequence of a controlled media (2.50 / 2) (#151)
by krkrbt on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 04:01:04 PM EST

[Recessionary forces] faded into the background of the national consciousness and we keep reading/hearing mainly of positive indicators.

This is called "media cheerleading".  It's what happens when most media outlets are owned by a concentrated group of wealthy people.  Their giant incomes depend on Americans spending like there's no tomorrow, and if the media said "dark storms are coming", Americans would save and invest (like the Chinese & Japanese do), rather than financing for toys they don't really need and spending every last penny on worthless trinkets from WallyWorld.

Then again, I inherited my Grandmother's subscription to American Free Press, a genuine independant newspaper (she only left me a couple of issues, and I had to renew soon after she died).  So maybe my prespective is biased.  :)

[ Parent ]

You're not just being paranoid (none / 0) (#163)
by onemorechip on Sat Dec 31, 2005 at 04:06:10 PM EST

See Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

Predictamatron 2006, Angry Edition (2.77 / 9) (#126)
by Russell Dovey on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 10:31:36 AM EST

PREDICTAMATRON 2006 AE

Features include:

  • Israel's Apaches will continue to valiantly kill four Palestinian children for every Hamas/Jihad/Hezbollah member;
  • Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah members will continue to bravely fire rockets at Israeli children, blow up schoolbuses and shoot babies in their cribs;
  • Iran will win the Iraq War as the US pulls out;
  • The newly declared republic of Kurdistan will have around five minutes of peace and freedom before the Turks invade and massacre people by the thousands;
  • Iran will appoint a new, mullah-puppet president, and relegate their current loony to a post in their embassy in Baghdad;
  • Australian lefties will continue to believe, against the evidence, that their government is the most terribly fascist and evil one in a hundred years;
  • Australian conservatives will continue to believe, against all the evidence, that boat-people are dangerous moral subversives who will tear apart our society if we let them;
  • Australians still won't realise just how petty their environmental, social, political and ethical problems are when compared to the rest of the world;
  • Rammstein will release a song titled "We All Live In Bolivia" after a three-day recording binge fuelled by cocaine;
  • K5's servers will be hit by a comet made of frozen monocle polish.
ALL HAIL PREDICTAMATRON AE

"Blessed are the cracked, for they let in the light." - Spike Milligan

The Return of The King in 2k6 (none / 0) (#127)
by rev9of8 on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 10:32:36 AM EST

The people who think Nintendo will release a 'more normal' controller or that they'll drop out of the hardware market to concentrate solely on software because the Revolution wil flop are precisely the same people who thought the DS was a gimmick which would flop, and that Sony would destroy Nintendo's handheld business. Well, we know how that turned out. The real hardware winner this Christmas was Nintendo.

The Japanese market is theirs entirely: 1 million DS units sold in the Christmas fortnight (outselling the PSP at a rate of about 9 to 2 and outselling all other platforms combined), almost nine unbroken months as the biggest selling console per month (and per week) in Japan, and 8 of the top 10 Christmas titles in Japan were for Nintendo platforms. In North America and Europe the DS is now starting to pull ahead of the PSP and looks set to continue building up steam.

As for the PSP... well, it looks pretty. Sure. And you can rip movies/tv programmes to play on it. Oh, and you can play emus on it provided you don't buy any actual retail games. So, the entire appeal is in not playing current retail games. Hardly a good sign in the first place for a videogames system. Particularly if you need to sell retail games in order to make money back on the hardware.

Worse so when the competition (and it's impressive to watch those who said Nintendo were in denial when they said the DS and PSP weren't competing now using Nintendo's very own argument to defend the lacklustre achievements of the PSP) is managing to kick out million-plus sellers on it's new baby at a steady clip. And still has a Pokemon movie with tie-in DS game as well as two proper DS Pokemon games to bring to market. Even GTA:LCS failed to ignite the spark that the PSP needs.

So, based on the reality of 2005 whereby Nintendo have been the real achiever and it's arguments about the problems with the videogames market have been proven to be right, and where it has been Nintendo (not the tech marvels of their rivals) which has succeeded in bringing new gamers to the table, I'm going to make my predictions.

The 360 will not sell as many units as Microsoft need it to, let alone want it to. The complete failure in Japan is evidence of this. The 360 launch in Japan has actually been less successful than the original X-Box launch there. Microsoft's business plan was somewhat dependent upon this not being the case.

In fact, the 360 will begin to slow down by mid-January as Microsoft are able to deliver enough to market to satisfy the real demand. And the only real demand is primarily coming from existing X-Box owners. No-one outside of that dmeographic is particularly interested.

The truth is, Microsoft is largely cannibalising its own installed X-Box userbase. The 360 quite simply will not sell as well as Microsoft or the analysts have predicted, but sales through 2006 will be reasonable at least until...

PS3. It will not launch in May. Sony simply aren't ready and nor are the devs, it's getting an end of August/start of September 2006 launch in Japan and November in the US. The hype machine around this will be massive and their will be marketing everywhere. It will sell reasonably well in Japan, and will initially be highly anticipated in the US although the high initial pricetag will dissuade many. But something will be taking the edge of all that hype...

The Revolution launches at the end of May, start of June just after E3. Nintendo, coming off the highly successful Zelda: Twilight Princess release on the Cube, the DS picking up ever more pace in North America and Europe and a phenomenal E3 showing, the anticipation for this is at feverpitch.

Launched at $150, it doesn't look as if it'll destroy your bank account and try and sell your soul to Satan. With the goodwill Nintendo will be enjoying, and this low, low price for something genuinely different, consumers will take a punt on it.

Initially, games will have that tech-demo feel to them, but the hidden Revolution only features with have been incorporated into the Cube's Zelda game along with the massive back-catalogue of first, second and third party games from twenty years of gaming will keep people enthralled (look at how popular Live Arcade is) until the second-gen of games arrives in October/November. At that point it really kicks into overdrive. Nintendo win the 2006 Christmas hardware wars with the Revolution and the DS outselling everything else.

As for the PSP? What about it? There is simply nothing on the horizon that can pull it out the quagmire it finds itself in. The DS will be defecating on it from a great height in Japan, and North America and Europe will really fall for its charms as more and more quality titles are released for it. The PSP finishes the year lying in a gutter badly bruised and broken.

Nintendo will also be the most profitable of all the videogames companies in 2006. And going into 2007 will be looking at something amazing... The possibility of taking the crown as a consequence of Microsoft's play for Sony's market hurting both corporates and perhaps fatally wounding a Sony which is already in a massively precarious financial position.


I'll keep it simple (none / 1) (#135)
by Big Sexxy Joe on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 02:57:44 PM EST

It's only getting worse.

I'm like Jesus, only better.
Democracy Now! - your daily, uncensored, corporate-free grassroots news hour
Solid state storage (none / 0) (#136)
by tilos on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 03:53:37 PM EST

At least one major computer retailer will release a computer with solid state storage instead of a conventional harddrive. Aimed at the ultra-portable segment where space, weight and battery restrictions demand it - or in the no-frills corporate desktop segment where anything larger than 10 GB is a waste.

Maybe Fujistu-Siemens will play its' environmental card and put a solid state drive inside their line of green computers.

My prediction (none / 0) (#137)
by procrasti on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 03:55:49 PM EST

is that the Al Qaeda bomb in Germany in 2006 will be Nuclear.

-------
if i ever see the nickname procrasti again on this site or anywhere in my life, i want it to be in an OBITUARY -- CTS
doing my best at licking arseholes - may 2015 -- mirko
-------
Winner of Kuro5hin: April 2015
Now you'd better hope not (3.00 / 3) (#144)
by rusty on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 01:37:24 AM EST

If that does come to pass, you can expect some very serious people to come around and ask you some very awkward questions.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
It's going to happen someday ... (3.00 / 2) (#146)
by werebear on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 08:03:05 AM EST

True, but I rather suspect it's going to happen someday, somewhere. Perhaps not next year but over the next 20 years the probability approaches unity.

My bet for the actual target is NY or Washington most likely, followed by London and Tel Aviv.
After all if you have a nuke why bother going after one of the lesser satans ?

(With a side wager on an impro dirty bomb sometime before then)

http://www.costik.com/nukeny.html

[ Parent ]

Nope (none / 0) (#150)
by Weezul on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 03:19:40 PM EST

Dirty bombs are a figment of the fear mongers imaginations.  Any bomb that fails to kill people because you brought out the street cleaners is not serious.

Nukes are likely though.  Hope they pick DC over NYC.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
[ Parent ]

Perception is everything (none / 1) (#157)
by werebear on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 07:25:19 PM EST

Technically correct but it does not actually matter if a 'dirty bomb' was actually very radioactive. Panic is often not entirely rational. The act would garner worldwide media attention for weeks - and it sadly appears certain groups subscribe to the 'no publicity is bad publicity' school of thought.

If this occurs in a major financial district it's going to hurt your polity a great deal even if nobody actually gets injured at all.

I'd also not knock the cleaners too much - in the (perhaps unlikely) event nasty isotopes are scattered all over the street someone has to clean them up ... hope it's not me.

[ Parent ]

cleaners are probably safe (none / 1) (#160)
by Weezul on Sat Dec 31, 2005 at 11:05:19 AM EST

All the "computations" claiming dirty bombs are dangerous assume that you don't clean the mess up for years.  But you can probably get the stuff cleaned up pretty quick.

A truly ironic terroirst act would be: starting a toxic waist disposal company, store the waist at the producers expense, and eventually orchestrate a mass dumping in DC.  Its requires way too many people to be possible, but it has the irony factor bigtime.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
[ Parent ]

lol, yes, they get teh intelligence from k5 (none / 0) (#148)
by procrasti on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 02:05:57 PM EST

I've been waiting for the black helicopters after posting that... they haven't shown up yet :) Oddly enough, a black helicopter with a yellow tailfin did appear in the carpark that is my frontyard late at night about 15 minutes after posting about an alternative voting system -- people say they were out looking for a missing child, but why spend 15 minutes facing my window? (admitidly its a private communal carpark for some flats with lots of hiding places and an underground carpark.) The helicopter is quite real and there are 3 other witnesses. I have seen it since, it flies over this area often, along with other military aircraft (such C130s and Chinooks) but could quite easily be police. So, while the helicopter is real, I'm only semi-delusional about its purpose.

Perhaps you have readership in high and unusual places and I won't be seeing it again. Its not so far fetched when you consider the contributors are often themselves high and unusual :D

So before any MIBs think I have inside information and come to put me in Gitmo, et al, the nuclear bomb in Germany in 2006 is a prediction from The Bible Code. I don't take this prediction very seriously. It didn't seem very likely to me in 1997 but it seems much more likely now. As I can't be bothered to learn hebrew yet, it seems an easy hypothisis to test, just observe if there are any glowing bits in Germany this time next year.

Just as the terrorists learnt suicide bombing from Americans they will soon follow the American policy of killing 10 of the enemy for every one of theirs.  So, 300 in the middle east somewhere, 3000 WTC, 30k in Iraq, means they will have to be aiming at about 300k or so.  Also there's a lot of missing nuclear material out there and probably a missing bomb or two... you know someone will be willing to supply them with at least one.

Germany is a soft target, with lots of open borders. It is connected by land to the middle east and the rest of Asia, and although they actively opposed the war in Iraq, they will still be seen as 'The West' by those carying out the act.

I guess if the policy is continued we will see WWIII, and unless the US stops disappearing people for thought crimes (such visiting Afganhistan or Pakistan, or living in Iraq) and instead deals with the people directly involved in the crimes (OBL anyone?), in an open and honest forum, I see no happy ending to it.

So, while I obviously hope it doesn't happen and I don't really think its likely, its enough for me to avoid Germany next year. I'd be willing to put about £1k on it for 1000:1 bet if there were any bookies out there who would take it, but as the OP noted, over the next 20 years or so it is probably inevitable.

Just so I'm clear on this to everyone, I don't have any knowledge of any weapons of mass destruction. I don't have any WMDs in the bin shed in the carpark, in my kitchen, my bathroom the spare room, in my wardrobe or under my bed. I know of no links to terrorist organisations. Nor do I encourage the senseless destruction of human life.

To the MIBs I say there is no some a bin laden with WMDs in my shed.

-------
if i ever see the nickname procrasti again on this site or anywhere in my life, i want it to be in an OBITUARY -- CTS
doing my best at licking arseholes - may 2015 -- mirko
-------
Winner of Kuro5hin: April 2015
[ Parent ]

It has happened (3.00 / 4) (#155)
by rusty on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 05:53:11 PM EST

The secret service has acted on stuff found here twice that I know of. Neither was serious, although the individual involved the second time was never seen here again, as far as I know. Also, both were brought to their attention by someone else -- they don't go reading K5 for tips.

Now the bad news is that history shows they also don't understand the nature of threaded discussion, so your explanatory followup comment won't do you any good until you find this page and bring it to their attention. :-)

As far as the 10-1 ratio goes, I think last time I checked we're clocking more like 100-1 (if you count civilians). That's a plausible guess for how it's going in Iraq, anyway.

On the actual nuke issue -- there is a lot of concern over it, but there are some reasons to be hopeful too. Nuclear weapons are complicated beasts. Sure, you could, with sufficient effort and money, probably collect enough fissile material. But you also need the actual device that makes it go boom. And those are 1) harder to come by and 2) possessed of a severely limited lifespan. They're complex electromechanical devices, and they don't have a long shelf life. They require constant maintenance and checking. It's very likely that any nuclear weapons smuggled out of, say, the former Soviet republics, have probably ceased to work by now.

That doesn't rule out a "rogue nation" (North Korea, Iran...) or a rogue scientist from a not-so-rogue nation selling new weapons technology. It has happened at least once already (that scientist from... South Korea?) but not to a terrorist group, afaik.

Anyway, the point being that buying or building a working nuclear bomb is a very hard thing to do. I'd be a lot less surprised to see more "crash a plane into something" type attacks, which can be nearly as deadly without even a tiny fraction of the overhead.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]

meow (none / 0) (#149)
by Weezul on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 03:08:48 PM EST

Yup, the visited me and I just didn't know howw to spell.

http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2002/1/17/191058/297
"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." - Benito Mussolini
[ Parent ]

Spelling of Mass Destruction [nt] (none / 0) (#153)
by rusty on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 05:41:36 PM EST



____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
my spellchecker is not working in english, sry $ (none / 0) (#156)
by procrasti on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 06:19:51 PM EST



-------
if i ever see the nickname procrasti again on this site or anywhere in my life, i want it to be in an OBITUARY -- CTS
doing my best at licking arseholes - may 2015 -- mirko
-------
Winner of Kuro5hin: April 2015
[ Parent ]
Stevodamus Predicts (3.00 / 4) (#140)
by Winkhorst on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 06:25:51 PM EST

1) The FBI will "discover" Osama bin Laden hiding in Howard Dean's basement 10 days before the congressional elections. 35% of the American people will believe them.

2) George Bush will receive a telephone call from God 10 days after the election telling him to nullify the results, which have the Democrats winning by a landslide, except in Ohio where they lose by one vote out of 3000 in a precinct that only has 900 eligible voters.

3) 10 days later George Bush is dragged kicking and screaming for his mommy from the White House by a mob chanting "No more fruitloops! No more fruitloops!" and then hung from the nearest tall tree, thus proving his own motto, "You can run but you can't hide."

4) Within the week, Justice Clarence Thomas Dada, in his first written opinion, declares himself president for life and pope of the New American Apostolic Church and Racquet Club.

5) A week later Thomas is dragged kicking and screaming for "Massah Scalia" from his Supreme Court chambers by an angry mob chanting "No more fruitloops! No more fruitloops."

6) Christmas Day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff declare a military emergency and bomb Dick Cheney's underground hideout, thus finally putting an end to the Saudi puppet regime in Washington. The military promises swift elections but appoints Arnold Schwarzenegger acting president. Schwarzenegger promptly dissolves congress and declares himself president for life.

7) New Years Day, an angry mob drags Schwarzenegger from the White House screaming "I will terminate you all!" while chanting "Another damn fruitloop! Another damn fruitloop!"
______ *****Welcome to Avalon*****

Predictions for Chicago (none / 0) (#141)
by stox on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 11:31:53 PM EST

1) Cubs Win!!! 2) Daley Loses. 3) Hell becomes a center for super-conductor development.

Daley loses!? (none / 0) (#152)
by Big Sexxy Joe on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 04:21:15 PM EST

As much as I'd like to see it, it ain't happening.  At best, he'll only win by stealing votes.

I'm like Jesus, only better.
Democracy Now! - your daily, uncensored, corporate-free grassroots news hour
[ Parent ]
This "rogue province of Taiwan" (2.00 / 5) (#142)
by nostalgiphile on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 12:57:01 AM EST

Word around the campfire is that you flunked non-western history and don't know jack about "the rest of the world." Here's why:
[China will make us her bitch blah blah...] their rogue province of Taiwan, but as they increase the capability of their Navy [what navy?], they will shake their saber just a little more threateningly. Since the US cannot really get into a war with China without starting World War III [logic?], they [we?]should probably let them have Taiwan and see how much of our debt they will release if we keep our nose out of it.
Um, yes, from all this b.s. let me just filter out the question of why war with authoritarian China over democratic Taiwan would lead to WWIII? Who is gonna join the hypothetical Chinese Axis? North Korea & Cuba? Also, in the world I live in, no UN member state would condone a red invasion of the democratically elected state of Taiwan, not even Russia. And no, we're not gonna "let them have Taiwan" because we have this thing called the Taiwan Relations Act which secures the continued existence of that country.

But wait, you obviously don't know how difficult Acts of Congress are to circumvent, do you? Next year I suggest you drop the facile rhetoric and try using a more intelligently prophetic tone.

"Depending on your perspective you are an optimist or a pessimist[,] and a hopeless one too." --trhurler
Taiwan is not a recognized country. (3.00 / 3) (#171)
by Tezcatlipoca on Mon Jan 02, 2006 at 06:22:00 PM EST

You can spin it all the ways you want, Taiwan is an international pariah for different reasons.

It would have helped it they had not been a dictatorship for most of its postwar history, but the fact remains that most countries in the worl support the one China policy, and that does not mean the international community is hopping the Taiwanese will reach Beijing any time soon.

Might is right
Freedom? Which freedom?
[ Parent ]

not recognized doesn't equal "pariah" (1.66 / 3) (#179)
by nostalgiphile on Wed Jan 04, 2006 at 02:14:38 AM EST

No matter how you spin it. The primary reason the "one China policy" is supported by the UN is that the USofA wants to have its carrot and keep its stick at the same time. The US wants leverage, and they get more of it by NOT recognizing Taiwan's legitimacy as a nation (that's why Taiwan was kicked out of the UN in the first place, btw.).

Now your "argument", such as it is, would run something like "since the rest of the world says Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan is not a country and moreover their demands for recognition are outrageous." By way of analogy, this is a bit like saying that "Palestine isn't a [recognized] country, so it's plain wrong for the Palestinians to insist on their sovereignty/nationhood." Hmm, it's a good thing the early American revolutionaries didn't employ such fallacious reasoning...

Forgive me for laughing at the statement "it would have helped if Taiwan weren't a dictatorship for most of its post-war history." Since when does the US or the world give a damn about that? Actually, Taiwan got more support from the world with Chiang Kai-shek in power than it did after his death. Moreover, if you believe this statement, that having a dictatorship has an impact, how do you explain recognition of the PRC which, since it's founding in 1949 has been a dictatorship? Again, fallacious reasoning isn't getting you anywhere. Try and look at the facts:

1 Taiwan ROC was a founding member of the UN and was .
2 Taiwan has been separate from the mainland for 105 years.
3 Taiwan is, like it or not, a de facto independent country with a constitution and democratic rule of the law.
4 The PRC has nothing to lose by relinquishing its claims over Taiwan (because of 2). 5 The PRC bases its claims on antiquated laws which predate even the existence of the PRC.
6 The PRC has passed laws which allow it to use violence to "integrate" Taiwan.
7 Having unjustly evicted Taiwan from the UN, the US itself recognizes its obligation to help defend Taiwan (see the TR Act).

I'm hoping that you will now recognize that this is not the mickey mouse scenario you at first imagined it to be. It is a complex, serious issue that you should consider more carefully before jumping fully on the 'one China' bandwagon.

"Depending on your perspective you are an optimist or a pessimist[,] and a hopeless one too." --trhurler
[ Parent ]
Not to mention the cool ships (none / 0) (#182)
by z84976 on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 10:26:09 AM EST

We have been outfitting the Taiwanese navy for years with awfully capable Aegis cruisers, and they know how to use them. I think the Taiwanese have enough capability to ensure their own survival these days. No Chinese naval attack would work very well militarily or politically. Not to mention the economic disaster it could bring for all parties involved.

[ Parent ]
I'll have a go. (none / 0) (#145)
by OzJuggler on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 05:21:16 AM EST

I haven't done this before, but I tend to jump in the deep end with things, so here's 10 predictions for 2006 that I can now fail by:

Politics

  • The Australian Liberal Party government will talk about a greenhouse gas reduction agreement with other Asia-Pacific nations during the first half of 2006, but won't actually sign any binding targets until the next election year (2007). It will do this to make it appear to its electorate that it cares about the environment while at the same time obeying its pro-industrial orders issued from Washington (ie- no Kyoto).
  • Australia will be the target of a fatal terrorist attack, which is now long overdue. The new anti-terrorism laws will be ineffective. The anarchists will point out that the laws should never have been passed, whereas the fascists will take it as a reason for passing even more draconian laws.
Technology
  • Photovoltaic solar cells drop in manufacturing cost by 5%, the silicon wafer cells hit 23% efficiency in the lab, the commercialised versions reach 19% efficiency, the thin-film poly-silicon cells reach 9% efficiency in the lab, and the third generation cells reach 37% conversion efficiency but only under ridiculous amounts of illumination equivalent to 10 or more suns.
  • Computer retailers will begin to sell 21" LCD screens for less than AUD1000.
  • OLED displays will go commercial but intro prices will be over A$3000 for a 26" television, or more than A$1000 for 17" monitor.
  • Flexible (roll up) electronic paper displays will begin to appear in consumer products, and in at least one pricey PDA/phone.
Culture
  • At least 25% of people will attempt to solve some of their inner social and emotional problems during 2006 by physically making themselves look better cosmetically.
  • Rich westerners and europeans will flock to central Africa to see the total solar eclipse in March, and many of them will be robbed by armed bandits. The returning yanks will receive full body cavity searches as soon as the TSA drones see any neighbour of Libya stamped in their passport. (But that doesn't worry anyone who spends a lot of time looking at Uranus.)
  • The blues (NSW) will win the rugby league State of Origin competition. (I never watch this and have no idea of the form on each side, but everyone here seems to include a sports prediction, so here's mine.)
  • An irreverent work of art will cause an international diplomatic scandal lasting less than a week.
- OzJuggler.
"And I will not rest until every year families gather to spend December 25th together
at Osama's homo abortion pot and commie jizzporium." - Jon Stewart's gift to Bill O'Reilly, 7 Dec 2005.
PV solar cells (none / 0) (#178)
by tchuladdiass on Tue Jan 03, 2006 at 04:55:10 PM EST

  • Photovoltaic solar cells drop in manufacturing cost by 5%, the silicon wafer cells hit 23% efficiency in the lab, the commercialised versions reach 19% efficiency, the thin-film poly-silicon cells reach 9% efficiency in the lab, and the third generation cells reach 37% conversion efficiency but only under ridiculous amounts of illumination equivalent to 10 or more suns.
Why would this be a bad thing? You could use a fresnel lense in front of the PV cell in this case, which also has the bonus of requiring fewer PV's in an installation.

[ Parent ]
It's misleading and less useful. (none / 0) (#183)
by OzJuggler on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 09:35:48 PM EST

Misleading because it isn't a normal situation, and less useful because it means the whole contraption is bigger and so there's less places the technology can be used for the same wattage.

But you're right about the lenses because that's what they already do in a lot of PV farms.

-OzJuggler.
"And I will not rest until every year families gather to spend December 25th together
at Osama's homo abortion pot and commie jizzporium." - Jon Stewart's gift to Bill O'Reilly, 7 Dec 2005.
[ Parent ]

Review and new Predictions (none / 1) (#158)
by Armada on Fri Dec 30, 2005 at 08:14:07 PM EST

I was actually surprised at how accurate some of the things in my post were. Specifically the following statements:

The insurgents will be quelled for the most part but there will be increased activity on the border of Iraq/Iran.

I state in a followup post that Kurds will actually call for a Kurdistan in 2006, but that doesn't look like it will happen unless this government fails miserably.

No, it will be high by the end of next year, with scheduled pullouts in 2006 and a handful of immediates before Christmas.

Talk about hitting the nail on the head.

Continued IT cuts except in the IT security sectors. Web application worms will grow in popularity. A remote exploit to crash Windows XP despite the firewall will be found, as will there be a highly talked-about destructive worm that destroys data.

I know the IT security sector well, so this prediction wasn't really a guess. I didn't see many Web app worms, but both the Myspace worms were notable in this area. The remote exploit to crash XP despite the firewall involves any of 2 that were out, one just recently involves using an image-parsing exploit that can affect a station just by sending email and viewing it in the outlook preview pane.

Just saying blogging will increase does not do it justice. Seven major stories will come from blogs this year, including a missing person's case where their blog will be drowned in senseless posting.

I'd like to point to a specific case, but I think the Fuck Natalie Halloway article is exemplary. I know a girl who was the "hitter" in a hit-and-run at a nearby university to me had her blog spammed and people posted all sorts of crap to it.

Wrong. Football will continue to grow in popularity. Basketball would have steroid problems far sooner than football.

Not so much a prediction as an anti-prediction.

The media will exaggerate too many Firefox flaws for people to consider really switching. Windows 2000 will be phased out at most major corporations and universities.

I think the former definitely happened. The latter was kind of inevitable anyway.

Google's stock is not overrated.

It wasn't. See my predictions below for more info on this.

2004 was the spyware year. 2005 will be the year of WebApplication attacks and worms. A utility to automate XSS scripting attacks for popular forum and community open-source software will be developed and released. Exploits in IE and Mozilla that allow simple browser crashing and URL spoofing will also be commonplace.

Again, I know this field, so it wasn't hard to make these predictions.

Now, I was horribly off on a number of predictions, so I really cannot say I'm some sort of a visionary, but as I read them, I was freaked by my own blogging and Iraqi pullout predictions.

Predictions 2006

Economy:
Ditto on the interest rates. The new Fed isn't going to do anything for at least a year. We'll have some economic slump this year, and quite possibly due to the Iran Conflict.

Google's stock is still not overrated, but it's probably at or nearing its peak. I think it'll settle back in the 300-400 area by this time next year. Keep in mind that Google's market cap has passed 100 billion and Microsoft's is somewhere over 200 billion. With that in mind, I think it is easy to say that Google is at least HALF Microsoft. But not likely much more. Microsoft's market cap will continue to fall.

China and other Asian economies will really start to pickup. The US will still be big, but the Iranian Conflict is going to be a huge problem.

Iraq/Iran:
Iraq will pale in comparison to the Iran Conflict. The problem stems around Israel and Iran, but as usual, the US will be a major player in this. I don't have anything else to say other than my condolences to the families that lose their sons and daughters when the ships in the Gulf sink. I think that "Sunburn" will be a household term by the end of the year. Gas prices are just going to kill those of you that commute, I'm sorry that you'll have to bear the costs.

US Politics:
Nothing major here. Bush will never see the high ratings he once had and more scapegoating will be piled on the Bush administration as preparations are made to put the new Republican party candidates on the front lines in the news. There will be a major Democratic candidate scandal, but it'll be state related, and in reality, no one will care.

I agree there will be a lot of talk about tax reform, but ultimately no huge changes. I say this because as far as us, the end users are concerned, the only tax code changes will be ones that don't have a major effect on us.

Console Wars:
I don't care about this subject, but there will NEVER be a "regular" Nintendo controller. They might release some other nifty contraptions, but they'll stick with the gyro stick or whatever the hell it is.

Hollywood:
You must have some major insight here, because I don't disagree with anything you've said. There will be a few surprise hits, but they will be indyish films that no one expected to do well. The blockbusters will, ultimately, suck.

Including Da Vinci Code.

Music:
The Video iPod and VODCasting will be major news all over 2006. Since that doesn't really have anything to do with music, this is sort of misplaced.

The RIAA will either breakup or drop off the planet due to parent companies realizing how ineffective and a money hog it is. Plus, one of the parent companies will be involved in a lawsuit directly, which will negate the effectiveness of the RIAA hiding the parents.

Sports:
I missed the Cubs winning the World Series. I was told by someone who said the games are scripted that somewhere in 2005-2007 the Cubs will win. But I don't know how much faith I put in that. Since I don't really care about sports, this is a non-issue for me.

Rest of the World:
I hate to sound so anti-everything, but I really don't care about life outside the US, so I have no comments or predictions. I suppose Italy might have a major earthquake or something, but why elaborate on countries I don't know?

Oblivion will have success rivaling that of Morrowind.

WoW will lose two million of the 5 million accounts in the first half of 2006.

A new Team Fortress game will come out.

Savage 2 will come out a little later than hoped, but will overtake much of the Counter-Strike and Natural Selection base.

My prediction for 2006. (none / 1) (#159)
by ixian on Sat Dec 31, 2005 at 06:47:24 AM EST

There will be another scandal involving a female teacher having sex with her underage male student. This time, however, the parents will refuse to press charges, and will state that this has in fact been a beneficial experience for their son, and they don't mind. The issue will be debated on TV, with male speakers stating that the issue of underage sex is different for boys and girls, and with female speakers emphasising emotional trauma and the kid's inability to give consent. The news show hosts, in the good tradition of American journalism, will voice their opinions and steer the debate.

i know you wrote it while drunk, but... (none / 0) (#161)
by deadcow on Sat Dec 31, 2005 at 12:40:17 PM EST

>> Since the US cannot really get into a war with China without starting World War III, they should probably let them have Taiwan and see how much of our debt they will release if we keep our nose out of it.

...as a Taiwanese guy, I just gotta feel a bit put out by your callous dismissal of all decency in favor of mindless patriotic selfishness. I don't mind your prediction as to whether or not it'll happen, but when you injected your editorialising into it too, I just had to speak up. Sorry.

Touchy subject (none / 1) (#187)
by codejack on Mon Jan 09, 2006 at 12:46:34 PM EST

And, of course, no one knows how to deal with it. Most Americans, I think, support a free Taiwan. Actually, I doubt most Americans could find Taiwan on a map. With labels. And a big red arrow pointing to it. That may be part of the problem.


Please read before posting.

[ Parent ]
Overall prediction (none / 1) (#164)
by Herring on Sat Dec 31, 2005 at 04:57:58 PM EST

2006 will be shorter than 2005. By about a second.

Say lol what again motherfucker, say lol what again, I dare you, no I double dare you
Interesting to note (none / 1) (#168)
by ljj on Mon Jan 02, 2006 at 08:28:21 AM EST

That still, in 2006, somebody who does the foolish thing of trying to predict the future, still ignores the hottest spot of turmoil on the face of the globe. A rather large, unknown mass of land from which all humans came.

--
ljj

Yes (none / 0) (#169)
by tetsuwan on Mon Jan 02, 2006 at 11:02:11 AM EST

This is where most of cold war II is already taking place.

Njal's Saga: Just like Romeo & Juliet without the romance
[ Parent ]

From whence we came. (none / 1) (#193)
by draykonis on Wed Jan 11, 2006 at 03:38:31 PM EST

But really, how much do we know about Golgafrincha, other than to avoid using their dirty telephones?

[ Parent ]
Africa will remain about the same (none / 0) (#200)
by b00kanon on Wed Mar 01, 2006 at 04:50:30 PM EST

Zimbabwe: Will continue to fall apart even more, no one in the US or Europe will care, with the sole exception of something about Mugabe having someone killed or jailed for some minor protest.

South Africa: Will get a little it less nice, less safe and less comfortable. Townships will encroach on upper class white areas, crime will rise. Government corruption will increase a little, but not too much. ANC will continue to strengthen it's stronghold on politics, no real rivals will appear. General government controls such as gun control will be forced on everyone. SA will have at least 5 more years before it falls appart.

Nigeria: People will continue to protest against their lands being laid to waste by oil companies. They will be aremed and blow a few things up. The US govt will condemn this as terrorism, some enviromental groups will celibrate it as activism and a democratic uprising against an oppressive goverment (both are right). This may make a small blip in the American press, when either refineries are destroyed or US oil workers are killed.

The Rest of the sub-sahara: Small wars will continue to occur between tribes/ ethic groups/ what ever. The US press will emplisise that these combatants are aremed with machettes, the African version of NATO (what ever it is called) will fail to do anything about it. They will continue to kill each other at a shocking rate , which will not be as shocking as the death rate from AIDS. Productivity will drop even further from all ready low levels to even lower levels. Corrupt governments will embezzle any aid, and live lavishly.

[ Parent ]
Israel/Palestine (none / 0) (#170)
by jonnyd on Mon Jan 02, 2006 at 11:37:53 AM EST

Interesting to note that a prediction I made for 2004 has finally come true in 2005 (at least partially)... Linked here
JD
How did THIS story get on the front page? (none / 0) (#172)
by terryfunk on Mon Jan 02, 2006 at 07:27:16 PM EST

Amazing...it seems good stories gets dumped and then stories like this make the front page.

I couldn't past 4 paragraphs and even that was a struggle. I could barely go on after the third. 'Duuude', a simple spell check would have told you America is spelled with a 'c'. Everything else is so flawed in logic, it just isn't worth the effort at this point. Oh yes, maybe the problem is that everyone took the advice and lit up joint while reading this in the edit queue. That would lead to some clear thinking indeed.

There is really something wrong here.

Just my opinion though.

I like you, I'll kill you last. - Killer Clown
The ScuttledMonkey: A Story Collection

Can always count on this comment! (none / 0) (#192)
by draykonis on Wed Jan 11, 2006 at 03:36:40 PM EST

Sweet! I was really beginning to get worried that someone wasn't going to say "How did this get to the front page? It's terrible and blah blah blah!". I thought for a second there that I had followed a link that led me out of K5. Thanks for reminding me where I am! -

[ Parent ]
iran etc. v pessimism (none / 1) (#173)
by tomlord on Tue Jan 03, 2006 at 01:22:20 AM EST

The iranian govrmnt will freak out and further polarize the local population.  They do have a (singular) bomb and, in a grass-roots real-politik development -- it will go off: domestically (in iran).  Israel will suffer some misplaced retributions and, by the end of 2006, US troop levels in the middle east will increase, the draft will look to be reinstanted in 2007, and there will be a surprising level of popular support for that.

The public face of north korean diplomacy will take scary turns during this period but, ultimately, china will continue to be an effective, good, peace-keeping neighbor and, quietly, we'll all be looking forward to a graceful and progressive 2007.

Some new, market-sensative, uniquely-american but chinese inspired form of socialism will find -- not exactly endorsement but some kind of serious intellectual consideration -- not among the dems but, rather, dab smack in the middle of republican "social liberal/fiscal conservative/foreign policy hawks".

2008 will be the next 1968 in terms of grass roots  involvement playing with global communications -- but this time with less anti-statism. By the end of 2006, it will be obvious that this is coming.

By the end of 2006, venture capitalists will be setting themselves up for huge, huge returns in iraq where the political issues will be tedious (people still dying) but boring (the end is clear).  

Libya will flop over like a house of cards.  The press will act as if this were surprising.

Hopeful thinking: many private interests will flood palestine and win hearts and minds.   The Palestinian state will, at last, be sparked and kindled.  Israel will at last be free to begin showing a differnt face, at least quietly -- the historic antagonism will unambiguously enter the final phase: irony unto disingenousness.

Yoko Ono will buy a full page ad in the San Francisco Chronicle and reading it will make me weep with joy.

I will become a daddy.

-t


Music (none / 0) (#180)
by dostick on Wed Jan 04, 2006 at 05:00:12 AM EST

new Tool album coming out spring 2006 !
My site: http://blog.enargi.com
my predictions (none / 0) (#181)
by aphrael on Wed Jan 04, 2006 at 09:04:43 PM EST

My prediction:

Economy:Housing prices in the areas where the bubble is worst will cease rising but not fall. Interest rates will fall a bit. The new Fed chairman will set Inflation targets, and the economy will teeter on the brink of deflation.

Iraq,:  There will be a slow drawing down of troop levels through mid-summer followed by a declaration of victory and a large-scale removal in September or October. After the election, some crisis in Iraq will cause troop levels to be raised again.

US Politics: The Democrats will fail to retake the Senate, but neither will they fall below 40%. Alito will be confirmed. Justice Stevens will die, and Bush will nominate a conservative who will also be confirmed. The AMT will not be fixed, but there will be more tax cuts targeted at upper income brackets. The deficit will get larger. The Abramoff scandal will hit both parties hard, leading to widespread voter discontent and rumblings of a third party reform movement.

Hollywood: Brokeback Mountain will win Best Picture.

I was with you until Brokeback. /nt (none / 0) (#190)
by Ignore Amos on Mon Jan 09, 2006 at 07:53:51 PM EST


And that explains why airplanes carry cargo on small boats floating in their cargo aquarium. - jmzero
[ Parent ]

have you seen it? (none / 0) (#194)
by aphrael on Wed Jan 11, 2006 at 08:27:44 PM EST



[ Parent ]
Bad things are going to happen in the Middle East (2.00 / 2) (#184)
by Hung Fu on Sat Jan 07, 2006 at 01:37:53 AM EST

I'm going out on a limb here, I know, but I just have this crazy feeling about things

__
From Israel To Lebanon
Really? What a shock! (none / 0) (#186)
by codejack on Mon Jan 09, 2006 at 11:53:26 AM EST

Tell me - Will there be any sand involved? (Shameless rip off of a dilbert strip.


Please read before posting.

[ Parent ]
My predictions... Dark, but hilarious. (none / 1) (#188)
by beergut on Mon Jan 09, 2006 at 04:13:14 PM EST

Iraq:
Oil will not flow from Iraq's reserves in any significant amount, which will exacerbate the problems caused by the already-tight oil supply, and events in Iran.

Civil unrest accelerates.

Iran:
Iran will introduce their own oil exchange sometime in the early part of 2006, trading in Euros or Dinars or in some gold-based currency or the new "market basket" of currencies currently popular amongst international bankers.

The U.S. Dollar will suffer mightily as a result.

Likely outcome: War with Iran, either shortly before, or shortly after, the startup of Iran's oil exchange. This will likely be preceded by a "terrorist event", news of which will saturate the corporate media to the point that the real story will see no exposure.

China:
China, having begun their move toward the "market basket" currency mentioned above, will continue this shift away from their strong position with the U.S. Dollar.

The U.S. Dollar will suffer mightily as a result.

Likely outcome: War with Iran, because we have to stabilize our fiat currency somehow, and China is too tough a nut to crack, currently.

More fallout: China rattles their sabre more vigorously at Taiwan, and the U.S. administration is forced to admit, "We won't be able to fulfill our treaty obligations — Taiwan, sorry, Bro, but you're fucked".

Israel:
Dead Prime Minister. Ariel Sharon's replacement will be Benjamin Netanyahu. His star is rising in Israel again, and with Iran rattling its sabre, the Israelis will opt for a hard-liner.

Palestinians will be pissed off, and riot vigorously, launching missiles and the like from the "previously-occupied territories".

Likely outcome: War with Iran, because — well, just because I want to stick with a theme here. But not really. Israel will re-occupy the territories ceded to the Palestinians, and will not be kind about it. Really, they'll have no choice. Iran's response will be to threaten Israel with nukular annihilation, to which Israel will respond by supporting the pending U.S. attack with their air force.

Unforeseen fallout: The story of the U.S.S. Liberty will finally be told broadly, and Israel will lose favor with many Americans, most of whom currently cannot point out Israel on a map.

Syria:
Because of a mutual defense pact with Iran, Syria will join the fight against the allied U.S. and Israeli forces, and try to run up the U.S.' poop-chute in Iraq.

It won't work, because Israeli forces will flood across Lebanon into Syria, and the U.S. and Israel will smash Syria in a very effective pincer.

Likely outcome: Civil war in Syria, after a provisional government is established by the U.S. and Israel. This civil war will not break out in earnest until 2007, but its seeds will be planted in this year.

North Korea:
North Korea continues to be a proxy for China, and a thorn in the side of the U.S. Their currency counterfeiting operations broaden, despite U.S. sanctions and political pressure from Japan and South Korea. The six-party talks resume again in the middle of the year, but yield nothing, and break off again after the U.S. Mid-term elections.

South Koreans, ignorant of the true brutal terror of Communism, and less-guided by the hand of their rapidly-disappearing elders who lived it, will begin demanding U.S. troop withdrawals, which may happen close to the end of the year, as troops will be drawn away from the Korean peninsula for operations elsewhere.

U.S.A.:
Item: The U.S. Dollar resumes its plummet out of sight, which causes the U.S. to attempt war to stabilize its currency. This drastic devaluation of the currency in international markets will not harm the U.S. economy overtly until late in the year, but people's accounts and investments will shrink to near-valuelessness.

Item: The Republicans lose significant numbers of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Not so much in the Senate. Voter fraud in Texas will deny Michael Badnarik a seat in the House of Representatives as a Libertarian, in a hotly-contested race against the machine-connected Democrat. The Republican will be a distant third. Or, maybe, the Republican will be the chief contender, and the Democrat will be the distant third. Same difference. Same machine.

Item: Broadening war in the Middle-East, "precipitated" by a "terrorist event", as well as heightened sabre-rattling by China and North Korea, will see the formal reinstitution of the Draft in the U.S. This will, of course, be met by U.S. leftists in much the same way as it was in the 1960s, but the response from the government will be more stark. A "mild" state of martial law will exist in the U.S. for a short time after the "terrorist event". The restrictions will be lessened, but not totally repealed, in the name of "safety for the American people", but the Draft will remain, and a militarized system of "harvesting" draftees will be instituted. Firearms seizures will begin in earnest, and will be only sporatically resisted.

Gasoline: $5.00 per gallon. Diesel: $4.50 per gallon. The less-intense requirements for refining diesel will "pay off" those who own diesel vehicles. This will have more people clamoring for the construction of new refineries and for the exploitation of oil resources in ANWR, neither of which will be authorized by Congress (you know, lots of those guys have significant amounts of oil-company stock, and they're seeing banner returns on their investments, and will continue to do so as oil company profits go into orbit.)

Democrats bandy about the idea of impeaching the President as the Mid-term elections near, but the idea gains no traction with the American people, who are convinced that Bush, "ordained of God to lead our people in these dark times", can arbitrarily rip, shred, and burn the Constitution in a time of (undeclared) "war".

Likely outcome: The American people, stupefied by their sports-id{ol,le} worship, will hardly notice any of this. This, of course, excepts those few who drop their beer-can pacifier and wipe off their football-team facepaint long enough to attend a Sean Hannity rally so they can pump their pudgy fists and chant, "U.S.A! U.S.A! U.S.A!"

Canada:
Amid the growing torpor about banning guns and speech in Canada, a breakthrough will be made which allows organic hinges to be attached to their heads, controlling the flapping somewhat.

No man escapes when freedom fails; the best men rot in filthy jails.
Those who cried, "Appease! Appease!", are hanged by those they tried to please.

Hilarious? (none / 0) (#189)
by Ignore Amos on Mon Jan 09, 2006 at 07:12:14 PM EST

Not so much.

And that explains why airplanes carry cargo on small boats floating in their cargo aquarium. - jmzero
[ Parent ]

Iran (none / 0) (#191)
by mahju on Tue Jan 10, 2006 at 04:38:37 AM EST

For those of you predicting that Iran already has a bomb, its interesting to note that Iran has removed seals from a nuclear facility and will begin research there in the coming hours



Sports Predictions (none / 0) (#195)
by skim123 on Wed Jan 11, 2006 at 11:21:21 PM EST

Sports
Last year I made the following predictions: Pats/Steelers vs. Falcons in the Superbowl, with the AFC winners winning the Superbowl. Well, I guess I get partial credit for picking the Pats, no? And they did win the Superbowl. But my "I think the loss of TO will be too great for the Eagles to overcome" comment didn't hold true, but the fallout of the Eagle's loss in the big game and T.O.'s personality sure made for an interesting circus show this year.

This year, I'm going to blindly follow my favorite sports writter, and pick Pats vs. Bears in the Superbowl with the Pats winning (yet again).

As I noted last year, I follow the NBA much more intently, so my predictions should be less of a wild guess there. (Last year's prediction did correctly pick the Spurs out of the Western Conference, but I had given up on the Pistons due to their lackluster performance after The Brawl.)

This year, I see a repeat from last year - Spurs vs. Pistons. They are, really, the two best team out there. Yes, Dallas is good, and Phoenix will be even better when Amare roars back, but, honestly, the Spurs and Pistons are a notch ahead of the competition. This season is kind of like watching the Bulls back in their prime. Yes, there were some other good teams out there, but you'd never bet against the Bulls, regardless of who they were playing. I feel the same way with Detroit and San Antonio. They both have solid, unselfish vets who know how to win games.

Economy
The more I've explored the housing bubble, the more I think we're in for a serious decline in housing prices. I'm hoping sooner than later, but I think this year may find is in mostly a holding pattern. As interest rates continue to rise and more ARMs start readjusting in 2007, I think we'll begin to see substantial price drops in 2007 through 2010. (Damn, why is real estate such a slow moving market?)

I have a wager riding with a friend. I think in SoCal we'll see a 30% decrease in prices from the highs in 2004 by the end of this decade. That's quite a haircut, but I think prices have unrealistically been driven up to astronomical levels that have absolutely no basis in reality. Why the neighbor down the street can sell his 2 bed/2 bath 1,500 sq. ft. home for $1.25 million when he's a few houses south of an apartment complex, more than a mile from the beach, has no view, etc., etc., is beyond me.

However, I think the US economy is, overall, pretty resilient. And having the world's share of guns and butter, I'm pretty sure the US will remain as an economic force for decades to come.

Money is in some respects like fire; it is a very excellent servant but a terrible master.
PT Barnum


Iraq and Iran (none / 0) (#196)
by Saggi on Thu Jan 12, 2006 at 08:04:17 AM EST

Iraq and Iran

A lot of comments have been made on the Iraq and Iran problems. If we look at what has happened so far in Iraq, it is obvious that there is no easy way to implement a democracy in the Middle East.

It was a mistake to think that dropping several thousand troops into a country, followed by some free elections shortly after, and then retreating all the troops, ending with everyone being happy, is an illusion that can't be implemented in the real world.

So far we can see that it is possible to drop several thousand troops into a country destroying their previous government (oh, yes, I'm happy we got rid of Sadam)... but then it ends there.

Democracy is a way of thinking. It's about values. It's to think that your vote allows you to have influence (whatever remotely) on the decisions in you country. Democracy is build into the culture of the people of the country.

Historically democracy was implemented by killing of the entire old government (like France) and the people revolting putting in some new way of government, where they got influence. But it's a motion by the people to do it. Other countries got there in a less bloody way, and actually allowed their old government (kings) to live in a new less powerful way (Denmark, Sweden, UK, etc...).

So in order to implement Democracy you need a change in the culture and fabric of a country. It requires education of the entire population. It requires a change of values. etc... This takes time. Usually generations must pass before it is completely integrated into the country. In the rest of the world it took decades before it was done all the way. Just think of how long it took various countries to allow women to vote.

So Iraq need many years before it matures as a democracy. Until then it is vital to support them in a lot of ways. Security requires troops (or police), but also educations and other initiatives are needed. And it takes many years...

Everyone wants to pull out now. If that happens too fast or without replacing the needed institutions, educations etc... it will fail. Yes, the troops, companies etc. will get home of cause, but the country will drop into chaos.

In the following year we will see a lot of people trying to find the middle way. Pulling out as many people as possible and accept some degree of chaos (followed by lootings, bombings and terror).

This is predictions for 2006. I believe it will take decades before we have a slightly mature democracy in Iraq. So the prediction will be that for 2006 only minor changes will come in Iraq.

Now for Iran...

Anyone who wants to sign up for the same exercise there?

-:) Oh no, not again.
www.rednebula.com
K5 Predictions for 2006 | 200 comments (179 topical, 21 editorial, 0 hidden)
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