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Global Trends 2015 Report

By ignatiusst in MLP
Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 04:58:30 AM EST
Tags: Politics (all tags)
Politics

Yesterday on the NPR's The Diane Rhem Show, there was a discussion about the newest global trends report put out by the National Intelligence Council.


The report, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts, can be found here at the CIA's website.

Some of the topics included in this report include:

Population Trends
Science and Technology
The Global Economy
National and International Governance
Future Conflict
Major Regions

The end of the report also provides four alternative global views within the next 15 years.

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Global Trends 2015 Report | 13 comments (12 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)
Yawn (2.57 / 7) (#1)
by Kaa on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:33:43 PM EST

Another report by another government agency which believes its crystal ball actually works.

Why should we care? Did they say anything interesting? Insightful? Provocative?

Kaa
Kaa's Law: In any sufficiently large group of people most are idiots.


re: Yawn (3.25 / 4) (#2)
by ignatiusst on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:46:44 PM EST

Your right, I don't necessarily think that the governments crystal ball works. However, this is a report sub-titled, A dialogue about the future with nongovernment experts, which would suggest at least some ideas that come from outside the government...

As to whether or not they said anything interesting, insightful, or provocative... well, that's why I put it up as an MLP... So I wouldn't have to try to summarize a 40+ page report.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. -- Jonathan Swift
[ Parent ]

crystal balls? (3.66 / 3) (#8)
by _peter on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 02:16:53 PM EST

I don't necessarily think that the governments crystal ball works.
No crystal ball works on that timeframe. It's not a matter of government incompetence.

The future is going to be composed of a combination of sheer chance and the mixing up of several billion people's ideas and whims. Our world is practically the definition of a "Chaotic System".

Forecasting even the weather is utterly ridiculous when you get further than a few seasons ahead. I'd estimate that our geopolitical + socioeconomic system cannot be significantly less complex than the weather. There may indeed be far fewer actors, but their degree of freedom is literally inestimable.

Not to say this isn't interesting as a diversion. I may sit down and read the paper over the holidays if I finish my other reading.

[ Parent ]

It sucks being clueless, doesn't it. (1.00 / 4) (#4)
by simmons75 on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 01:50:43 PM EST

It's only called "National Public Radio" because it gets government funding. It's not really a government agency.
poot!
So there.

[ Parent ]
comprehension, lack thereof (3.00 / 2) (#6)
by _peter on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 02:02:38 PM EST

NPR was the vehicle for disseminating the information. The government agency which the report was from -- and to which Kaa refers -- is the National Intelligence Council.

[ Parent ]
Reliability (4.00 / 8) (#3)
by YesNoCancel on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 01:35:41 PM EST

I once read a similar report from around 1970. It suggested that a major conflict would break out in south-east asia, involving China, the USSR, Japan and the US; other predictions were that the USSR would strengthen its influence in middle and south America, nuclear missiles would become obsolete (due to missile defence systems) and space exploration would become a major industrial factor. No mention of information technology, the revolutions in the USSR and its eastern European satellite states, or globalization.

So much for the reliability of such reports.

Mark me down, but have fun...and Happy Holidays (3.85 / 7) (#7)
by eskimo on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 02:05:37 PM EST

Just perusing the CIA Kid's page, I didn't see any mention of proliferation of non and/or unconventional weapons. But I did stumble on this beauty. Be sure to switch your monitor to graphics mode. You'd think they have a better camera lying around. Christ, they could have taken a better picture with a satelite.

When I flip the Denny's placemat over and see stuff like this, I don't exactly lose respect for the Moons Over My Hammy portrayed so vividly on the otherside...because it is Denny's. This is different. This was an assignment for somebody, so they could eventually justify their post cold war job. The report has about the same impact for me. There is valid information in there, because somebody was trying to protect their ass, but you can bet there is also tons of spin to try and make sure people understand the importance of the CIA as a service to the country over the next couple decades.

I am my own home. - Banana Yoshimoto

Moons (2.00 / 1) (#10)
by rusty on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 03:03:51 PM EST

I had to read it a few times, but I see what you're saying now.

Can I just mention though, that I love the fact that you were able to work a mention of Denny's "Moons over my Hammy" into an on-topic post about the CIA. That, my friend, is a triumph. Thank you. :-)

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]

why this report is significant (3.62 / 8) (#9)
by AtomZombie on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 02:42:43 PM EST

regardless of its government biases, reports that project what will happen in the future are historically significant. in 15 years, we can read reports like these and gain an understanding of the feeling of the time, the overall mood, paranoia, or mindsets. right now, we can read this report and gain an understanding of what effects our actions now could in theory have on the future. even if it isn't a great report, it is always a good idea to step out of the subjective present every once in a while.


atomic.

"why did they have to call it UNIX. that's kind of... ewww." -mom.
3 year report (1.00 / 5) (#11)
by glmull on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 06:11:34 PM EST

One word: bull crap. Another word: go read Zetatalk. That's the 3 year plan to get you out of debt.
Zetatalk tells us what will happen in 2003.
didn't /. already cover this story? (1.00 / 4) (#12)
by glmull on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 06:18:18 PM EST

One thing these type of projections always forget to take into account is things happening in the interim. In this case, I believe they're focusing on 15 years or more into the future. That's fine but if Zetatalk is true then none of these projections will mirror reality. And none of these projections therefore have any significance. And therefore, instead of reading them, you should spend your time concentrating on things that do matter and that do have significance.
Zetatalk tells us what will happen in 2003.
This is good stuff (2.33 / 3) (#13)
by turtleshadow on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 08:12:00 PM EST

This is information that will be presented in some form to the former Govenor of Texas, President Elect G. W. Bush Jr.
Its of section topic because it has merit if possibly reworked.

It is important for the public to know there are studies that form basis of Presidential/M.P. briefings. Some are right on, some are way off. We just hope they are prepared to figure it all out
Regards,
Turtleshadow

Global Trends 2015 Report | 13 comments (12 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)
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