Target = 40'x40' = 1600 sq ft.
Splashdown Zone = 3,726 miles x 124 miles = 1.3 x 10^13 sq ft. (http://www.spaceviews.com/2000/12/09a.html)
Pretending I know something about probability, we can say that it is less likely that it will land towards the edges of the zone. So by my amazingly scientific calculations, this cuts the effective area by 80%. (Yes, that is amazingly conservative ;-)
That all comes out to about 1 in 1.6 billion. Taco Bell has pretty good odds.
Now, it will also be coming down in multiple pieces. This would change things, but the Taco Bell statement uses the word "core" *repeatedly*. So they can probably weasel their way out easily enough if something small hits it.
All in all, we ain't gettin' no tacos. However, I would still be wary of blue donkeys if I were you...
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