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Death of the Web 'Inevitable'?

By kellan in MLP
Fri May 25, 2001 at 07:36:19 PM EST
Tags: Internet (all tags)
Internet

The Register is reporting Death of the Web 'Inevitable', which sounds something like Imminent Death Of The Net Predicted! , but is actually about the a new report from the Forrester group, that next generation web, dubbed "X Internet" will be composed of "quickly downloaded, disposable programs".


The report claims that the current internet is static, "dumb, boring, and isolated...news, sports, and weather imparted on static Web pages offer essentially the same content presented on paper...now that the novelty has faded, [people] are going back to reading newspapers and watching TV."

This doesn't sound like my experience of the net, with sites like K5, is our experience so different from the norm?

Then, according to the Register, the report goes on to claim, that the next generation of the Internet will be "...the executable Net - termed X Internet by Forrester - will consist of quickly downloaded, disposable programs loaded onto PCs and handhelds."

This is in line with Microsoft's Windows XP vision, but very different from TBL's and the W3C's SemanticWeb, which is a vision for a web of rich data, and metadata.

Without a deep and widely pervasive culture of free software, I'm personally going to have to take a pass on "X Internet".

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Poll
Does the Forrester Group know what its talking about?
o Yes, and its exciting. 1%
o Yes, and its scary. 0%
o No, but I'm sure their stock went up today. 73%
o Hey, who drank my koolaid. 24%

Votes: 107
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o Death of the Web 'Inevitable'
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Death of the Web 'Inevitable'? | 33 comments (17 topical, 16 editorial, 0 hidden)
We've got that already (3.77 / 9) (#3)
by kostya on Fri May 18, 2001 at 03:03:08 PM EST

"...the executable Net - termed X Internet by Forrester - will consist of quickly downloaded, disposable programs loaded onto PCs and handhelds."

Oh, you mean Java Applets, right? Yeah, we've got those. ;-)

Yeah, that worked real well the last time. People have been yacking about agents and distributed components for longer than the web has been around.



----
Veritas otium parit. --Terence
"Invention exchange" Forrester? (3.85 / 7) (#4)
by DesiredUsername on Fri May 18, 2001 at 03:04:15 PM EST

1) No, the current Internet isn't like that.
2) No, "people" aren't going back. My wife and I have the same conversation every 6 months or so: "How did we used to live before the Internet?"
3) Can I run your diposable programs on Windows, Mac, Linux, Tru64, Plan 9, OS X, Inferno and VMS? Because I can get on the current Internet with all those OS's...

Play 囲碁
Maybe... (1.00 / 1) (#5)
by DeadBaby on Fri May 18, 2001 at 03:07:39 PM EST

Push the button Frank.
"Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us." - Carl Sagan
[ Parent ]
they're wrong, but so are you (4.66 / 3) (#18)
by cory on Fri May 18, 2001 at 05:04:15 PM EST

I think the Forrester group is collectively smoking crack. That said, you don't need an application to run on 100% of the OSs in existance for it to be "common". If the "X Internet" only worked for Windows *, that would be enough for the "average" user to use it.

Also, just because you and your wife can't live without the Internet doesn't mean other people can't. Like I said, I think the Forrester group is dead wrong, but I'm not going to substitute my own anecdotal experience to refute it. Rather, I'll just say that most of the people who make predictions about the success or failure about specific technologies are almost always wrong (with the "worldwide market for five computers" being one of the more famous in the group). Why should these clowns be any different?

Cory


[ Parent ]
WWW != Internet (none / 0) (#30)
by LQ on Tue May 22, 2001 at 04:38:17 AM EST

The article talks about downloadable apps replacing the web not the internet. There was a big net community before HTML came along ten years ago. Net years are like dog years so that feels like a lifetime ago.

There will be new and exciting ways of using the net that have not yet been dreamed of. Each generation assumes that the next will do things just the same way they did.

[ Parent ]
Evolution of the Web (4.50 / 4) (#7)
by starbreeze on Fri May 18, 2001 at 03:23:31 PM EST

I think it's a load of bunk. I sent a writeup on this same article to editors@k5 about four hours ago. It never made it to the queue since I am still waiting for a reply with some helpful editorials, so I'll post some of my comments from the writeup here.

I can see this with handhelds, but how many non-tech-savvy people have handhelds yet? And why would you want to use this on a PC? I can see this for news and weather and other everyday service type sites, but what about other sites like businesses and homepages? I don't know many people who typically download sites like that to their handhelds, or who would have a use to. And it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for just surfing.

I also see a problem with the downloading disposable code idea. Not everyone has broadband access at this point. Sure, its growing all the time, but with the amount of DSL companies going down the tube lately, who knows.

I think they are jumping the gun in their assumptions about this "evolution" and sensationalizing it as "Death of the Web".

~~~~~~~~~
"There's something strangely musical about noise." ~Trent Reznor

OT (editors) (none / 0) (#23)
by Wah on Sat May 19, 2001 at 02:34:58 AM EST

I sent an email with a story to editors@k5 about 11 months ago. I'll let you know how they did when I get a response. :)
--
Some things, bandwidth can't buy. For everything else, there's Real Life ©Parent ]
Editors@k5 (none / 0) (#24)
by starbreeze on Sat May 19, 2001 at 01:20:14 PM EST

Hmm... that's nice. Well I just checked my email and got the email back anywayz. If editors aren't going to help with stories, a. how are newbies sposed to learn and b. why doesn't someone take it out of the FAQ and posting stories link?

~~~~~~~~~
"There's something strangely musical about noise." ~Trent Reznor
[ Parent ]

Interesting... (4.33 / 3) (#10)
by RareHeintz on Fri May 18, 2001 at 03:32:16 PM EST

I seem to remember having heard that Forrester is somehow in bed with Microsoft... And that would certainly fit with what you described here. Does anyone have any concrete information regarding Forrester's pushing of MS's technical initiatives?

OK,
- B
--
http://www.bradheintz.com/ - updated kind of daily

and whats with the shopping via doom? (4.66 / 6) (#12)
by kellan on Fri May 18, 2001 at 03:45:35 PM EST

While the Doom hack that allows you to run ps and kill from Doom was cute, why would I possible want to shop via an interface like that? (as suggested in the article)

As much fun as it is to make fun of Neilsen, I thought his response to this idea was eloquent, "2D is Better Than 3D because people are not frogs"

kellan

Shopping the Doom way (4.00 / 1) (#20)
by Anonymous 6522 on Fri May 18, 2001 at 07:37:22 PM EST

I could see some utility in being able to shoot the virtual salesguy if he just won't stop pestering you. Damnit! I'm just looking! Go away! Bang!

Of course, I'm not being pestered by any online salesguys now, and it might get tedious to have to shoot wave after wave of virtual salespeople just to browse a damned online store in peace.

[ Parent ]

link to Forrester press release (4.00 / 3) (#16)
by xdc on Fri May 18, 2001 at 04:53:40 PM EST

Press release: The Death Of The Web Is Inevitable, According To Forrester Research

By request, above is a link to the Forrester Research press release that is the subject of this K5 article. As Rocky pointed out, you're not going to be able to read the actual report unless you're willing to fork over a lot of money. Based on some of the alleged assertions this report makes, I would have to question its value for any person or organization.

Agree & Disagree (none / 0) (#19)
by mattyb77 on Fri May 18, 2001 at 06:16:09 PM EST

I believe that the WWW will simply evolved, as it has been for many years now. For them to say that it will simply die is a bit extreme. So, in a way, I agree that the WWW as we know it will die, but will instead become something better. It is here to stay and has become an integral part of many people's lives, including mine.

I also think that during the late 90's there was a lot of emphasis and novelity with the WWW, as if it were a replacement for traditional media. I don't know if that has changed, or not, but I don't think it has been fully realized yet. I think we've barely experienced the potential that the Internet can bring to our lives -- both good and bad.

--
"I bestow upon myself the `Doctorate of Cubicism', for educators are ignorant of Nature's Harmonic Time Cube Principle and cannot bestow the prestigious honor of wisdom upon the wisest human ever." -- Gene Ray, the wisest human ever
so.... (4.66 / 3) (#21)
by Shren on Fri May 18, 2001 at 07:38:28 PM EST

Who's going to write "quickly downloaded, disposable programs considered harmful"?

self-fulfilling prophecy (5.00 / 6) (#29)
by greycat on Mon May 21, 2001 at 03:48:04 PM EST

Let me guess how this works:

  • MSFT writes disposable pay-per-use applications.
  • MSFT tells Forrester "we're writing disposable pay-per-use applications".
  • Forrester tells everyone "disposable pay-per-use applications are the next big trend".
  • People think "Hey, I want disposable pay-per-use applications! Forrester says they're hot!".
  • People buy^H^H^H rent MSFT's pay-per-use disposable applications.
  • MSFT gets more money.

And Forrester gets paid to advertise MSFT business models to rich people? Wow, what a racket!



Indeed, and guess why they are disposible... (none / 0) (#33)
by salsaman on Sat May 26, 2001 at 04:36:50 AM EST

...because XP and .net and all of M$'s crud will take up ALL your h/d, only leaving enough space for one 'disposible' program at a time !

[ Parent ]
I have some thoughts on this... (none / 0) (#31)
by Sairon on Tue May 22, 2001 at 12:11:18 PM EST

Yes, the web as we know it is on the brink of extinction. It hasn't remained as we knew it for some time. It's in constant flux. Although, a large overhall seems near. I feel it is with something like freenet. The semantic web, over freenet with agents and the like. It actually flies in the face of .NET . MSFT seems to want all machines to be dumb and their servers smart. Client-server, back to the old dumb terminal days. I don't feel that's likely or realistic. I think that something like Freenet, realying on all the computing power that is out there, is more real.

JPM

Death of the Web 'Inevitable'? | 33 comments (17 topical, 16 editorial, 0 hidden)
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