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R.I.P DVDs coming to an end

By rajivvarma in News
Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 01:37:53 PM EST
Tags: Technology (all tags)
Technology

Well, this pessimistic link comes from infoworld.com. Basically, "Net Prophet" Sean M. Dugan predicts that because the CSS encryption has been cracked, the only possible recourse that the movie industry should take is to get out of the DVD business. Comments?


IN EVERY ONE of Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry movies, you know there's a crusading maverick who's going to buck the system, an inept bureaucrat who's going to spoil the fun, and finally, a hapless partner -- the one who's got "dead meat" stamped on his forehead.

Like the ill-fated partner in every Dirty Harry movie, DVD's days are numbered.

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R.I.P DVDs coming to an end | 23 comments (23 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
DVD's are cheaper than Videos, so t... (none / 0) (#6)
by Strange Charmed One on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 01:38:57 PM EST

Strange Charmed One voted 1 on this story.

DVD's are cheaper than Videos, so they shouldn't but this is worth discussing.
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The link goes somewhere else.... (none / 0) (#13)
by xah on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 01:56:25 PM EST

xah voted -1 on this story.

The link goes somewhere else.

While I don't agree with the guy's ... (none / 0) (#18)
by Ethelred_Unraed on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 02:05:58 PM EST

Ethelred_Unraed voted 1 on this story.

While I don't agree with the guy's statements, it still is worth a read IMO.
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Nonsense, DVDs are _just_ starting ... (none / 0) (#2)
by joeyo on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 02:35:12 PM EST

joeyo voted 1 on this story.

Nonsense, DVDs are _just_ starting to get big now... wait till the players get a bit cheaper. 'Course I've been wrong before...

--
"Give me enough variables to work with, and I can probably do away with the notion of human free will." -- demi

Sean Dugan just happens to forget t... (none / 0) (#9)
by Kip on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 03:16:57 PM EST

Kip voted -1 on this story.

Sean Dugan just happens to forget that VHS tapes are cheaper and easier to copy, yet the movie industry continues to pump out new releases on VHS every week.

Hmm, lets see. Movies studio's ar... (none / 0) (#20)
by casret on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 03:47:46 PM EST

casret voted 1 on this story.

Hmm, lets see. Movies studio's are worried abouting pirating so they will sink the DVD format in lieu of something that they can make money off of? Say some sort of pay per view method? Oh wait, that's right, Divx failed didn't it? Conusmers ultimately drive the market, and consumers want their DVDs. In fact, i think that dreamworks/spielburg is the only studio that hasn't commited fully to DVDs.

If you look at the situation the mu... (none / 0) (#16)
by Philipp on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 04:44:36 PM EST

Philipp voted 1 on this story.

If you look at the situation the music industry is right now, you can understand their concerns. It's quite possible that because of mp3 the music industry will not be able to make any money anymore from selling shrinkwrap sound. I haven't bought a CD for half a year myself... To be able to store a movie (10GB?) on a harddrive as convient as a music album (50MB) is just a few years off.

alias kn 'killall -9 netscape-communicator'

This article is quite narrow sighte... (none / 0) (#17)
by RangerElf on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 05:25:44 PM EST

RangerElf voted 0 on this story.

This article is quite narrow sighted, it merely takes the opinions and views (and fears) of MPAA lawyers and partners, which we all (or most) already know. Nothing newsworthy in my opinion.

DVD won't die, there is too much mo... (none / 0) (#4)
by hattig on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 06:32:14 PM EST

hattig voted 1 on this story.

DVD won't die, there is too much money invested in it, and if peoples investments in a techology that they were told would be supported were suddenly made worthless (and not by a rival format) then people would get pissed off.

The latest action is in the UK, where Tesco is saying that region locking is anti-free trade, and it looks like they could win, thus us in the UK can look forward to cheaper DVDs (currently 15-20 each!)

Infoworld has a bad track record fo... (none / 0) (#7)
by Demona on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 06:41:07 PM EST

Demona voted -1 on this story.

Infoworld has a bad track record for prediction. Too many people have invested too much in DVD -- it'll just become the next-generation CD>

It's nice to read a columnist who u... (none / 0) (#11)
by grey on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 08:59:04 PM EST

grey voted 1 on this story.

It's nice to read a columnist who understands the playback/copying issue. However, I think he gives the MPAA too little credit for their understanding, and too much for their moral/legal integrity. YMMV.

Another pundit. They're still makin... (none / 0) (#22)
by Imperator on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 09:40:50 PM EST

Imperator voted -1 on this story.

Another pundit. They're still making billions of dollars on the movies, even if they no longer have a _complete_ monopoly on the players. *Yawn*

DVD is popular and NEW, and like th... (none / 0) (#10)
by mr. creep on Sun Feb 20, 2000 at 10:44:02 PM EST

mr. creep voted 0 on this story.

DVD is popular and NEW, and like the CD and CDROM, give it a few years before the next big thing(tm) comes around.
--
brian - geeknik.net

Seems like a decent article, althou... (none / 0) (#19)
by renec on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 01:18:04 AM EST

renec voted 1 on this story.

Seems like a decent article, although his conclusion is just to get page views, I think.

Shure, post it, whydahecknot. ... (none / 0) (#15)
by Perpetual Newbie on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 01:39:47 AM EST

Perpetual Newbie voted 1 on this story.

Shure, post it, whydahecknot. From what I've read about the CSS matter, it looks like this guy's pretty clued(that is, his opinions fit neatly into my own little worldview). However, when he gets past the history lesson and starts pondering, that makes me ponder, and some of my ponderings disagree with his. The first thing I'm going to rebuff is the assertion that the Movie Industry[tm](C)(r) is expecting the $5k licence fees to make up for the cost of bitlegged movies. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that the people doing the licensing were not the Movie Industry, but some guys that own the IP for creating DVD discs and have to convince the Movie Industry to make movies on their discs. Even if I'm wrong and it is the Movie Industry doing the licensing, there are like, what, a dozen companies licensed(or some similar number pulled out of my ass)? Nobody needs to buy the licensing anymore, big whoop, they'd be out a couple tens/hundreds of thousands. Mr. Faceless Executive would have to wait another month to buy his eighth Porche. That wouldn't be enough reason for the Movie Industry to kill the DVD format. So the piracy angle then? Now seriously, is the Movie Industry so clueless as to think that piracy is restricted to the DVD format? VHS movies have been swapped around the Internet for years. I remember some C-NET TV show where they were showing off how you can find porn on the Internet or something like that, and they showed a clip of some schoolgirls from some hentai Anime screaming "they want our bodies" or something like that, then again I wasn't paying much attention and my dirty mind probably filled in some blanks in the memory, but in any case CNET was showing off downloading movies from the Internet years before I got on it. And of course, there's the special camcorder edition of the Matrix. If the Movie Industry doesn't know that movies can be bitlegged from ANY format, they are either blind as bats or utterly clueless. Knowing (of) the Movie Industry, this is a very good possibility. Sean ends the article by implying that the Movie Industry cannot make money selling DVDs. I find this very hard to believe. I'm not totally discounting the possibility of the DVD format going belly-up in the near future. I see two ways that this can happen, and Sean didn't write much on either of them. First is if they have something else in the works that is so much better than DVD that it is worth it to the Movie Industry to completely drop an established format that is largely accepted by consumers to push the latestgreatest that may or may not make it. The second is if the Movie Industry goes Divx on the DVD consumers(or likewise, if the DVD consortium goes Divx on the Movie Industry), we'd see Instant Dead Format. Well, that's my longwinded opinion. (points out through the monitor) What's yours?

A quick summery of the DVD situatio... (none / 0) (#14)
by derick on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 03:24:16 AM EST

derick voted 1 on this story.

A quick summery of the DVD situation, and always good fodder for conversation. The movie industry needs to remember that no matter what encryption scheme is used, it will eventually get cracked. They should keep using CSS, and quit worrying about. DeCSS is not increasing piracy, it's actually going to sell more DVD's as it opens up dvd to a larger market.

I wish Microsoft would get out of t... (none / 0) (#5)
by bmetzler on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 09:17:23 AM EST

bmetzler voted 1 on this story.

I wish Microsoft would get out of the software business because of Piracy. Bah, sour grapes. I don't think that DVD is going away, just because someone proved how lame encryption is.
www.bmetzler.org - it's not just a personal weblog, it's so much more.

I don't know... Seems like average... (none / 0) (#21)
by neonman on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 09:21:00 AM EST

neonman voted 0 on this story.

I don't know... Seems like average ranting. I don't know if this is suitable or not suitable for kuro5hin.
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This is one of the better articles ... (none / 0) (#1)
by techt on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 11:56:11 AM EST

techt voted 1 on this story.

This is one of the better articles about the DVD fiasco, even if it is colored with gloom-n-doom. The author got the facts reasonably well. I can't see the movie industry up and abandoning DVDs. They'd have many angry litigious excustomers to face if they did so. I can see the movie industry charging extravagant prices, releasing videos for a limited time, and only releasing some of their movies as DVD as a way to hedge their bets. (Although, in my opinion, any of these options or combinations there of will only encourage piracy.)
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The author presents an interesting ... (none / 0) (#8)
by Verement on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 01:44:56 PM EST

Verement voted 1 on this story.

The author presents an interesting and well-reasoned point of view.

An interesting idea. But I don't r... (none / 0) (#12)
by delmoi on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 02:43:07 PM EST

delmoi voted 1 on this story.

An interesting idea. But I don't really think that its a correct idea. There to far in already, and VHS dosn't have any more security features then DVD. Going back wouldn't correct the problems, and consumers are not going to want a new format.
--
"'argumentation' is not a word, idiot." -- thelizman

Blech. DVDs. Consumers like it. ... (none / 0) (#3)
by ebunga on Mon Feb 21, 2000 at 05:39:25 PM EST

ebunga voted 1 on this story.

Blech. DVDs. Consumers like it. Movie people like it, but now that it has been cracked, who knows. If they get rid of it, though, there will be enough people complaining, where they will have no choice. Remeber, we are the consumers here. They have to make what WE want.

Re: R.I.P DVDs coming to an end (none / 0) (#23)
by Anonymous Hero on Tue Feb 22, 2000 at 12:04:36 AM EST

Ain't gonna happen. Or if it does, they will have INSTANTLY lost many millions (probably 30 million by the end of this year) of customers. They aren't gonna come back for a LONG time after being burned so badly.

I know I wouldn't buy another player until 10 years have gone by, to make sure this doesn't happen again. And I know a LOT of people who are holding off on DVD even now because "they aren't sure it will make it". A change right now will make/break the digital video industry.

As Dirty Harry might have said: Go ahead, MPAA, make my day. I would LOVE to save my money over the next 10 years, recording videocassettes, rather than what I do now, BUYING DVDs. (Note: I don't buy things unless I get a quality product. VHS is NOT a quality product. DVD is.)

R.I.P DVDs coming to an end | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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