Perpetual Newbie voted 1 on this story.
Shure, post it, whydahecknot.
From what I've read about the CSS matter, it looks like this guy's pretty clued(that is, his opinions fit neatly into my own little worldview). However, when he gets past the history lesson and starts pondering, that makes me ponder, and some of my ponderings disagree with his.
The first thing I'm going to rebuff is the assertion that the Movie Industry[tm](C)(r) is expecting the $5k licence fees to make up for the cost of bitlegged movies. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that the people doing the licensing were not the Movie Industry, but some guys that own the IP for creating DVD discs and have to convince the Movie Industry to make movies on their discs. Even if I'm wrong and it is the Movie Industry doing the licensing, there are like, what, a dozen companies licensed(or some similar number pulled out of my ass)? Nobody needs to buy the licensing anymore, big whoop, they'd be out a couple tens/hundreds of thousands. Mr. Faceless Executive would have to wait another month to buy his eighth Porche. That wouldn't be enough reason for the Movie Industry to kill the DVD format.
So the piracy angle then? Now seriously, is the Movie Industry so clueless as to think that piracy is restricted to the DVD format? VHS movies have been swapped around the Internet for years. I remember some C-NET TV show where they were showing off how you can find porn on the Internet or something like that, and they showed a clip of some schoolgirls from some hentai Anime screaming "they want our bodies" or something like that, then again I wasn't paying much attention and my dirty mind probably filled in some blanks in the memory, but in any case CNET was showing off downloading movies from the Internet years before I got on it. And of course, there's the special camcorder edition of the Matrix. If the Movie Industry doesn't know that movies can be bitlegged from ANY format, they are either blind as bats or utterly clueless. Knowing (of) the Movie Industry, this is a very good possibility.
Sean ends the article by implying that the Movie Industry cannot make money selling DVDs. I find this very hard to believe.
I'm not totally discounting the possibility of the DVD format going belly-up in the near future. I see two ways that this can happen, and Sean didn't write much on either of them. First is if they have something else in the works that is so much better than DVD that it is worth it to the Movie Industry to completely drop an established format that is largely accepted by consumers to push the latestgreatest that may or may not make it. The second is if the Movie Industry goes Divx on the DVD consumers(or likewise, if the DVD consortium goes Divx on the Movie Industry), we'd see Instant Dead Format.
Well, that's my longwinded opinion.
(points out through the monitor)