There should be statistics of reports on crimes from other nations or places as well, including the US.
Sure, and if I were interested in making some sort of argument based on statistics, I could look them up. But that would only tell me how I interpret statistics, and that's not what I'm trying to find out. What I am interested in is finding out more what Swedes think. Because to my way of thinking, the reactions seem kind of strange. We have a saying in the United States: "It can't happen here!" This saying has a lot of connotations, most of them ironic and about denial, and I think of it when I hear about this incident. There's no way I can understand that better by further investigating my way of thinking, so I'm engaging in discussion. I want to know what you think. And so I ask questions designed to get people to tell me what they think. Sometimes it works.
As you can probably see in another post at a different comment I am not that surprised if it turns out to be a psychotic stabbing.
I saw that. However, from my perspective, which is doubtless different from yours, the dismissals of political motivations by the Stockholm police as described seem to me a bit facile and even naive. I know that Scandinavia in general has a lot of manic-depressives, probably due to SAD. Most manic-depressives have a short cycle and another long cycle, the latter of which is on the order of a year. So, I think one could probably find a lot of manic-depressives in a manic phase around this time in Sweden. I think the possibility, for example, of a political group gaining control over a mentally ill person, possibly with benzodiazepine addiction, and ensuring that he is in the right place at the right time is at least as probable as an encounter with a random nut-job. And the dismissal of this possibility by the Stockholm Police on the grounds that it didn't look "professional" in the Tom Clancy sense seems to me to indicate that it could have been extremely professional.
But that's just one idea.
If the numbers are low compared to other citys or areas, well I think that doesn't say as much as I would like for me to be able to brag about how fine a city I live in.
It is certainly not my goal to dis the safety of Stockholm. But I have a hard time judging safety. I walk pretty much everywhere I want without worrying about my safety, even through South-Central LA. But I am me, and so I'm biased by being me. Apparently, I look like the kind of person that you don't want to mess with, unless you have an axe to grind. I've experienced street gangs at 4 AM crossing the street to avoid me. I've also experienced the odd biker or psychotic targeting me because I look like I might be a challenge, and I'm an expert in talking them down. So I don't worry. But anyway, I'm not interested so much in my perceptions of safety, which I already know anyway, as I am interested in others';
But low or equal numbers would leave a testament that the murder of Anna Lindh doesnt mean the whole city if full of psychos succeeding in nipping off every major politician, which is a bit what you suggested earlier.
It does say something about likelihood and probability, though, at least through a Bayesian model. The probability of a politico getting killed may be small. However, given that a politico got killed, you can't just look at the raw numbers. You have to compare the probability of various possibilities, given the information that at least one politico got killed. Therefore, you're dealing with a number of probabilities, each of which may be small without that information, but given that information, one of them must have been the case.
The conditional probability of an assassination, given that a killing did occur, is much higher than the probability of an assassination without the knowledge that a killing did occur. It's not reasonable to dismiss the possibility simply because the unconditional probability is low.
The truth may be out there, but lies are inside your head.--Terry Pratchett
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