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Predictions for the coming year

By SIGFPE in Op-Ed
Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:18:41 AM EST
Tags: Technology (all tags)

As the first year of the new millennium approaches (I'm old fashioned about the calendar) I thought it would be fun to compare predictions about what changes we can expect in the technology world in the coming year. In a year's time I'll post a followup and we can come back to this story and see how well we fared as pundits. Of course there'll be lots of kudos for the wildest predictions that turn out to be true.

Will I be able to fit my whole music collection (9Gb) into a cigarette packet sized mp3 player? Will I have a 2GHz PC on my desk? Will 64 bit computing become commonplace? Will NASDAQ recover? Will Microsoft still be one company? Will the record companies figure out how to make music secure? Will PocketPC wipe out Palm?

One important proviso - it would be nice if all predictions could come with some kind of justificatory argument so that we have some meat for discussion.

So get your crystal balls out and start writing predictions!


Voxel dot net
o Managed Hosting
o VoxCAST Content Delivery
o Raw Infrastructure


How much on a cigarette pack sized mp3 player by 12/31/2001?
o 2Gb 24%
o 4Gb 12%
o 6Gb 16%
o 12Gb 10%
o 18Gb 4%
o 30Gb 12%
o 100Gb 7%
o 1Tb 11%

Votes: 141
Results | Other Polls

Related Links
o Also by SIGFPE

Display: Sort:
Predictions for the coming year | 78 comments (73 topical, 5 editorial, 0 hidden)
i mean a commercial mp3 player... (2.00 / 9) (#1)
by SIGFPE on Thu Dec 21, 2000 at 07:37:05 PM EST

...as no doubt IBM could fit all of the music available on Napster on a pinhead with their scanning tunnelling electron microscope!

And as wma will be more popular than mp3 by the end of the year (oops...I've just made a prediction there) I mean digital audio players rather than just mp3 players.

It's just the same story... (2.07 / 13) (#2)
by DeadBaby on Thu Dec 21, 2000 at 07:46:13 PM EST

2 Billion websites, only 367 sites to read. When will the web get decent content? When will I stop getting pop up ads shoved down my throat? When will I stop getting 404's at major sites? (Thank you ESPN.com)

The internet is really awful. I hope something is done about it soon.
"Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us." - Carl Sagan
Internet != Web (3.00 / 1) (#12)
by BigZaphod on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 02:12:28 AM EST

No no... The Internet is the greatest thing to ever happen to this planet (well, maybe not quite--but close :-). The web could use some work, though....

"We're all patients, there are no doctors, our meds ran out a long time ago and nobody loves us." - skyknight
[ Parent ]
Just like TV then? (4.00 / 2) (#30)
by DeadBaby on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:33:20 PM EST

I recall seeing people talking about how TV was the greatest invention ever because it was ideal for teaching. That didn't exactly work out. I have no faith at all that the internet is any better or worse than other meida types.
"Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us." - Carl Sagan
[ Parent ]
Answers... (3.66 / 15) (#3)
by ucblockhead on Thu Dec 21, 2000 at 07:51:59 PM EST

Will I be able to fit my whole music collection (9Gb) into a cigarette packet sized mp3 player?

Probably not.

Will I have a 2GHz PC on my desk?

If you are willing to spend a lot.

Will 64 bit computing become commonplace?


Will NASDAQ recover?


Will Microsoft still be one company?


Will the record companies figure out how to make music secure?


Will PocketPC wipe out Palm?


Most of those predictions are too long range to come true in a year.
This is k5. We're all tools - duxup

y2k+1 (2.50 / 2) (#18)
by aschafer on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 10:18:15 AM EST

Dell's Dimension line already offers a model w/ 1.5 ghz processor starting at $1900, why not 2ghz by next year?

[ Parent ]
Paying lots. (none / 0) (#55)
by ucblockhead on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 12:54:59 AM EST

No, I said "if you are willing to pay a lot". I suppose it depends on your definition of "a lot". I'm a cheap bastard!

This is k5. We're all tools - duxup
[ Parent ]

Nasdaq (3.66 / 3) (#19)
by dennis on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:05:53 AM EST

I predict the Nasdaq sinks well below 2000 and stays there for a while. The reason it's crashing is that P/E ratios were ridiculously high (graph here). They're just starting to move into reasonable territory. With debt levels high and the economy weakening, it seems unlikely that the "irrational exuberance" will return soon.

[ Parent ]
MSFT: no breakup (4.00 / 3) (#23)
by pmk on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:35:26 AM EST

The selection (not election) of George the Third essentially removes any threat of the Department of Justice continuing its efforts to seek public remedies for MSFT's proven abuses of monopoly powers.

[ Parent ]
I agree, but (none / 0) (#53)
by ucblockhead on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:41:33 PM EST

I agree, but the reason I said "no" up there is because one year is far too short a timeline for a breakup.
This is k5. We're all tools - duxup
[ Parent ]
Gas prices (3.14 / 7) (#5)
by iCEBaLM on Thu Dec 21, 2000 at 09:22:22 PM EST

Soaring gas prices will drive R&D into alternate (electric, ethanol, water, solar, cold fusion?!) means for automobile and home heating fuel and we will have alternatives on the market. That's my big prediction. Electric cars in 2001 :)

-- iCEBaLM

well (2.00 / 2) (#15)
by gregholmes on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 06:38:22 AM EST

Gas prices aren't exactly soaring, in fact they're down a bit. And I'd like to see something else that was $1.20 ish 20 years ago (your state may vary -taxes) be $1.50 today (again, adjust for your state tax).

As for alternative fuel, states that aren't enviro-havens don't seem to be having a problem. If California had allowed a power plant to be built in, oh, say the last ten years, they wouldn't be having this problem.

[ Parent ]
Fuel Prices are soaring... (3.66 / 3) (#26)
by iCEBaLM on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:10:49 PM EST

Why do you take such a US centric view? I'm talking about globally. Gas prices have DOUBLED in the last year here in Canada, in Europe it's worse. Deisel fuel which is cheaper to produce because it isn't as refined as regular unleaded costs MORE where it has always cost less.

The reason? OPEC and its price fixing tactics. What's funny is that they're putting their nails into their own coffins. The higher gas prices make a need for something alternative, and you know what they say about the mother of invention...

-- iCEBaLM

[ Parent ]
I'm all for invention (3.00 / 3) (#29)
by gregholmes on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:22:52 PM EST

Got nothing against it. But if the reason for high gas prices in Canada and Europe is OPEC price-fixing, why doesn't it have the same effect here (US)? I think the difference, long term, is accounted for by taxes. It is not my fault if Europe wants to tax itself to death. Obviously gasoline isn't "naturally" US$4.00/gallon there, or I'd quit my job and become a gas exporter. They would save and I'd make a killing.

I take a "US-centric" view because I live in the U.S.

[ Parent ]
Hmm... (4.50 / 2) (#50)
by ghjm on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 08:32:08 PM EST

I'd like to see something else that was $1.20 ish 20 years ago be $1.50 today.

Hey, I got it: The amount of money you have to earn, in order to keep a dollar!

[ Parent ]

bzzt (2.60 / 5) (#31)
by Wah on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:43:47 PM EST

GWB will follow up his thre^H^H^H^Hplan to plunder the Alaskan wilderness, finds lots of oil and prices will stay the same as the major oil companies realize that consumers don't mind the higher prices, or will buy excuses for why prices have to stay high.

The idea of restraining consumption will be overshadowed by the new year's line of SUVs.
Fail to Obey?
[ Parent ]

big flaw with electric cars (5.00 / 1) (#52)
by el_guapo on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:14:18 PM EST

whaddya use to generate the electricity you're using to recharge those suckers? ummm fossil fuels, so THAT won't work. and if you're in CA, with a stressed out electric grid already, adding a bazillion electric car rechargers to the load would be a baaad idea....electric cars are complete bunk - if you do a life cycle evaluation they actually increase pollution
mas cerveza, por favor mirrors, manifestos, etc.
[ Parent ]
Remember, it's supposed to be Q4/2001 (none / 0) (#69)
by ksandstr on Sun Dec 24, 2000 at 12:22:25 PM EST

So we'll obviously be using cold fusion to generate the power to charge our cars. Duh.

[ Parent ]
FUEL CELLS (5.00 / 2) (#74)
by PenguinWrangler on Wed Dec 27, 2000 at 10:36:02 AM EST

The only way electric cars will ever work. No added strain on the generating industry. Existing petrol-pump infrastructure can be modified to supply fuel. There's still a problem with storage of hydrogen, but Methanol can be used, pumped like petrol and stored in tanks like petrol, and produces way, way, way less pollution than petrol does.

"Information wants to be paid"
[ Parent ]
Millenium shmillenium (1.57 / 14) (#6)
by yoder on Thu Dec 21, 2000 at 09:34:08 PM EST

The true beginning to the millenium passed us by 3 to 4 years ago without somuch as a whimper. Leave it alone already.

oh please (3.50 / 2) (#10)
by Defect on Thu Dec 21, 2000 at 10:49:04 PM EST

if we're going to get so specific about it a millenium passes every freaking year. Hell, for that matter, some millenium somewhere passes infinitely many times as the seconds roll by. There's already enough controversy, let's at least stick to the story that people actually care about.
defect - jso - joseth || a link
[ Parent ]
RE: oh please (2.66 / 3) (#57)
by Numbersyx on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 03:24:45 AM EST

If the passing of the Millenium is no big deal, then why was everyone so excited last year, they celebrated it a year early. Actually this bothers me alot, Why did we celebrate the new Millenium a year early, it was no secret. I'll tell you why, because the Media decided they wanted to cash in on it a year early and "We the People" fell for it hook, line and sinker. They told you it was the new Millenium, you believed them and anyone who disagreed with them was held up to ridicule. Any time I brought it up, I was told the same thing you said, "OH Who cares, just enjoy the party". My point here is simple, society has degenerated so far you beleive everything the media tells you. They started small by telling you what soda to buy and what music to listen to, then they told you the year 2000 was the beginning of the new Millenium. More recently, they tried to tell you what Candidate won the election, which failed or didn't depending on who you talk to, but I'm sure by 2004, they will have it down and when they tell you who won the election 20 minutes after the first poll opens, you will beleive them and if I disagree, you will ridicule me and say "OH Who cares, just enjoy the party."

[ Parent ]
well smack my ass and call me whipped. (4.00 / 1) (#59)
by Defect on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 04:13:15 AM EST


Excuse me while i back up and absorb this. Alright, i'm set. Wait, no i'm not. ok, i've got it now. I was merely referring to the fact that a millenium is not an absolute date, as in the millenium can only be a multiple of 1k after someone was born, or after the year 1. It's a thousand years. Referring to "The Millenium" as only mattering 1k (or 2k, in this matter) years after a fellow was allegedly born is kind of a non-issue.

My point here is simple, society has degenerated so far you beleive everything the media tells you

If the media allows me to have some fun, a year in advance, or every year, or every day, then by golly, SO BE IT! You don't have to believe everything the media tells you to take a break and enjoy a party.

And why do you care about when people celebrate, does it matter to you? Whether this year is the end or beginning of a millenium really shouldn't make a difference to the people who choose to celebrate either "just" the new year or the new millenium. And besides, i think you're underestimating the state this world is in, we don't suck nearly as bad as you think we do. Now pardon me, i have to go buy some nikes, drink some coke, and go do something else that media has told me to do.
defect - jso - joseth || a link
[ Parent ]
RE: well smack my ass and call me whipped (none / 0) (#71)
by Numbersyx on Sun Dec 24, 2000 at 01:43:15 PM EST

Okay, I may over react to this "Non-Issue" and maybe I should "Just get over it", but the issue is not really about celebrating the Millennium a year early. The real issue is we accepted a lie from the media, and worse we knew it was a lie. I accept that this was a minor lie and no one got hurt. But what does this tell us about our society? It tells me, we will accept any lie as long as there is a good party afterwards. Maybe most of the world can live with that, but I have a serious problem with it and if I am alone in this concern, then so be it.

[ Parent ]
The 3 most important facts about the millennium (4.50 / 2) (#21)
by pmk on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:28:19 AM EST

1) In our calendar, the Gregorian, the first year of the common era is numbered 1. One thousand years later it was 1001. A thousand years after that is 2001. Happy millennium.

2) It's spelled with two 'N's.

3) Errors like "2000 was the millennium" and "the millennium is some even multiple of 1000 years after the birth of a particular human, and since we don't know exactly when that was, we don't know when the next millennium is" are excellent examples of bad memes.

[ Parent ]

The 3 most important facts about the millennium (4.00 / 4) (#22)
by pmk on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:29:36 AM EST

1) In our calendar, the Gregorian, the first year of the common era is numbered 1. One thousand years later it was 1001. A thousand years after that is 2001. Happy millennium.

2) It's spelled with two 'N's.

3) Errors like "2000 was the millennium" and "the millennium is some even multiple of 1000 years after the birth of a particular human, and since we don't know exactly when that was, we don't know when the next millennium is" are excellent examples of bad memes.

[ Parent ]

Predicting technology isn't really predicting (3.85 / 7) (#11)
by turtleshadow on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:49:31 AM EST

Pondering the state of such simplistic technology is trivial.

Try some more "important ones"
  • Prediction: Will the human genome project lead to cures of fatal diseases or other dreaded things or just a whole raft of designer patented drugs to treat the symptoms not the cause.
    Answer: At most 1 (possibly for obesity, or hairloss)
  • Prediction: When will the largest of the World's economies begin to embrace alterative fuels -- props to iCEBaLM
    Answer: After a series of scares California will begin to offer solar power incentives rebates and replacement with LED lights to relieve the stressed out grid and the rest of the Nation will follow in 3 years.
  • Prediction: How long will America, the supposed bastion of human rights, ignore the health and economic crisis of Africa and Indonesia?
    Answer: Not until Ebola or some nasty thing gets tracked into the U.S. via our crappy ports of call.
  • Prediction: Will Fidel C. make it through another year and if so will George W be the first American President to be welcomed into Cuba?
    Answer: Fidel is really a robot operated by the CIA. NO


Africa? (2.50 / 2) (#35)
by trhurler on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 02:44:58 PM EST

Exactly how is the US obligated to Africa?! I could understand an argument that Europe is, seeing as Europe made Africa what it is today, but the US? That's pretty bold. We already send a lot of money, goods, and people over there(more, I might add, than Europe can be bothered to cough up,) and all they do is use our resources to perpetuate their stupid civil wars, making the rights situation even worse. What else can we do, short of invading them and imposing a western-style government on them, which obviously isn't going to work, and why should we do it? Governments exist to protect THEIR people - not ALL people. Whose money and whose lives are going to be spent supporting this "noble cause" you dream of? By what right?

'God dammit, your posts make me hard.' --LilDebbie

[ Parent ]
We walked away from our battlefield (3.00 / 1) (#49)
by turtleshadow on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 08:14:38 PM EST

Indeed there are many opinons both pro & con for the involvement of the U.S. into the 3rd world regions. I must clarify my statement; I am not saying that the U.S. is solely reponsible nor singularly able to assist these areas.

However I do believe that the U.S. is more able to do so than other Nations.

I can only infer that when you mean that when Governments only protect their people you really mean Governments should also do so in a moral manner and never do so at the expense of neighbors.

Default on International loans is everyones' problem.
Poor health conditions lead to problems that know no political boundries.or social class distinction
Indeed the U.S. has a substantial investment in Africa.
  • Trends in U.S. Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa U.S. assistance to sub-Saharan Africa reached a peak in 1985 when global competition with the Soviet Union was at a high point.
  • Bilateral economic assistance for the region in 1999-2000 is close to the 1990 low.
  • The United States, once the second-leading development aid donor to sub-Saharan Africa after France, has fallen to fourth place, behind France, Germany, and Japan.
Source : Raymond W. Copson, "Africa: U.S. Foreign Assistance Issues," CRS Issue Brief for Congress, August 19, 1999, posted at: http://www.cnie.org/nle/econ-51.html.

Realistically we are in for a long bumpy ride for the 21st Century.
Got to fix my tag line someday.

[ Parent ]
cable radio (2.60 / 5) (#13)
by enterfornone on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 03:55:19 AM EST

OK MP3's are nice, but what I want is CD quality music that is streamed to a CD quality sound system. And not over the net, since I doubt the RIAA would go for that.

But cable radio would just be like cable TV, MPAA doesn't complain about movies broadcast down the cable, why would the RIAA complain about music. Imagine, hundreds of stations, no longer having to listen to the shit your local stations pump out.

Surely we already have the technology for this, and since the stations will pay the RIAA like regular radio stations they won't have to worry about getting sued.

efn 26/m/syd
Will sponsor new accounts for porn.
Should Exist (4.00 / 1) (#14)
by enterfornone on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 04:38:00 AM EST

After I wrote this I remembered there is a site for talking about stuff like this. Should Exist, it runs on Scoop - so you can go and submit stuff just like you submit it here.

efn 26/m/syd
Will sponsor new accounts for porn.
[ Parent ]
um... been around for years (3.00 / 1) (#17)
by delmoi on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 09:48:42 AM EST

This technology has been around for years. Perhaps not in your aria, but in others.

I belive you also get something like that with DSS dishes.

And don't be to hard on internet radio. A frend of mine listens to something called launch cast. It's actually pretty cool. You rate music you like, and it plays stuff it thinks you'll enjoy. The quality is fine from what I've heard. Don't be so hard on internet radio, its your fault if you don't have a CD quality sound system hooked up to your computer.
"'argumentation' is not a word, idiot." -- thelizman
[ Parent ]
well.. (none / 0) (#20)
by enterfornone on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:13:49 AM EST

I have a stereo hooked up to my home computer. I also have a 33.6k modem hooked up to it.

Was using a thing called Spinner at work today, wasn't bad considering the speakers on my work machine, but working nights at an ISP and getting 100Mbps to the backbone pretty much to myself would probably help somewhat. My article at Should Exist makes more sense than that comment.

efn 26/m/syd
Will sponsor new accounts for porn.
[ Parent ]

Digital Cable already does this.. (none / 0) (#34)
by DrEvil on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 01:43:28 PM EST

Rogers Digital Cable offers digital music service over the cable, as do all the Canadian satellite serivces as far as I know.

I however would like to see it streamed over the internet (forget the RIAA!) I would also like to see ICraveTV come back (or a similar service). I believe that the internet should eventually become the transport medium for all media (tv, radio, phones, etc.) We aren't quite there yet, but in a few years we hopefully are!

[ Parent ]
Less technology, more marketing (3.37 / 8) (#16)
by tetsuo on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 08:13:29 AM EST

I predict we'll see a shift from getting software sold to more subscription based services, for *everything*. Technologically, we'll still advance according to moores law, so nothing too shocking will come of it.

Here's a prediction... (2.42 / 7) (#24)
by Electric Angst on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:52:46 AM EST

Okay, for those of us who work in computer labs or high-tech offices. See the machines in front of your face? Those will be the future of computers for the poor and lower-middle class. You've got their "future" right in front of your face.

Oh yea, and in 2001, I'll still be pissed at Bush.
"Hell, at least [Mailbox Pipebombing suspect Lucas Helder's] argument makes sense, which is more than I can say for the vast majority of people." - trhurler
0xfeedfacedeadbeef (3.33 / 6) (#25)
by pmk on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 11:53:29 AM EST

I've been using 64 bit computers since 1983 myself. Will 64-bit computing become more widely used in the first year of the new millennium? Certainly; the disastrously weird IA-64 architecture has big players behind it and it is certainly too big to fail immediately in the marketplace. The next generation of the superior Alpha architecture will ship in 2001. And perhaps most exciting for the desktop world, AMD's 64-bit compatible extension of the venerable Intel x86 architecture will be available.

But will 64-bit computing become "mainstream" in 2001, however, in the sense that my Mom will be buying 64-bit gear from Dell? No way. The limiting factor is the price of cheap RAM for pee-cees. And while commercial (and, alas, free) software continues to bloat, it'll still be years before we'll see gigabytes of RAM in the average pee-cee. I think we're heading into a period in which server class boxes will complete their transition in the 64-bit world, and exciting shakeouts will result, while laptops and desktops will remain 32-bit for years to come. What may bring 64-bit to the little machines eventually is pressure for software compatibility with the servers, and I can think of several good arguments for why that won't matter.

Could you say something about the IA-64... (3.00 / 2) (#37)
by SIGFPE on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 03:48:33 PM EST

You say it has a weird architecture. I'm interested to know more as I know next to nothing about the IA-64 architecture.

it'll still be years before we'll see gigabytes of RAM in the average pee-cee
2Gb is the norm on desktop PCs at my work (though I personally only have .75Gb). Even the laptops at work have 0.75Gb. I've been taking for granted that this is commonplace...
[ Parent ]
Why IA-64 sucks (4.66 / 3) (#44)
by pmk on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 06:14:30 PM EST

Disclaimer: I'm a compiler writer who's gotten into instruction set design and simulation at a high-performance computer systems vendor.

IA-64 stinks because it assumes a misplaced balance between the compiler and the hardware implementation for high performance. Specifically, the architecture makes it hard (never say impossible) for a hardware implementation to dynamically adjust its behavior at runtime to the actual observed latencies of the memory hierarchy with well-known techniques such as out-of-order execution. Too much of the burden for performance is placed on the compiler, which has to schedule code under some fixed assumptions about latency. This means that when code is compiled to be portable to different platforms or different generations, it has to make worst-case assumptions.

It is true that IA-64 contains cache prefetching operations that a compiler can use to try to get data into the caches early. It is also true that caches continue to grow in effective capacity. Nevertheless, when we have effective hardware implementation techniques that already allow code to gracefully adapt to runtime conditions, IA-64 takes the wrong approach.

It is true that the performance bottleneck in modern computer architecture is the rate at which instructions can be fetched, decoded, initiated, and graduated. The VLIW approach helps widen that bottleneck. But there are alternatives that are far superior, require simpler hardware, can support hardware speculative and out-of-order execution, and which scale to higher bandwidths and wider replication of execution units. They're also easier to compile for. I'm talking namely about vector architectures.

Worse, IA-64 is an ugly VLIW. Download the instruction set encoding from Intel and take a look. It makes the x86 look elegant and cohesive.

So, as an architect and compiler guy, I much prefer a clean RISC architecture like Alpha. But wait till you see the Cray SV2!

[ Parent ]

IA-64, vector machines (3.00 / 3) (#48)
by trhurler on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 07:53:51 PM EST

First off, a vector machine only performs well for certain applications - it is NOT a replacement for any general purpose microprocessor, as you obviously know - so why would you pretend otherwise? Your Cray is all well and good, but it will run worse than my desktop when I decide to use it as a desktop machine.

Secondly, the truth about IA-64 is that it is very hard to write good compilers - but if you can do it, or if your code is handcrafted assembler, the results will outright obliterate what is possible using adaptive hardware techniques. I doubt compilers will make it, honestly, but I can respect Intel for hoping so, because if they do, we'll all be a lot better off. Incidentally, the idiots going around saying Intel didn't know what they were doing might just want to have a look at the 840, which is basically a smaller scale version of the same basic idea IA-64 is based on - run like a bat out of hell if and only if the instruction stream is well optimized beforehand. That's why it flopped as a general purpose processor and did so well in niches such as Sun's graphics towers, where engineers literally DID tune the instruction streams carefully.

As for ugly, what did you expect from Intel? I mean, would it be a REAL Intel if it was elegant?

'God dammit, your posts make me hard.' --LilDebbie

[ Parent ]
It's obvious! (3.85 / 7) (#27)
by FlinkDelDinky on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:20:43 PM EST

One thing about the future can be counted upon by all the people of our globe.

That is, Amiga inc. will introduce one or two software products and a flurry of exciting press releases. Then it will suddenly go bankrupt.

This will be followed by much gnashing of teeth, pulling of hair, and general lamenting of the Amiga faithful about how CBM's marketing blew chunks.

Then a saviour will miraculously appear and rescue Amiga from its well deserved place in computing history.

In my serious analysis of this topic I expect for this to continue every year for about twelve thousand years.

Paul Allen? (none / 0) (#47)
by jabber on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 07:50:37 PM EST

The man has money to burn - he just gave $100 mil to The Oxygen Network. Who? Yeah, that's what I said...

If anyone at Vulcan reads K5... Please.. Take an active role in Amiga. There's potential. Sack the board, set some directives, talk to Transmeta.

[TINK5C] |"Is K5 my kapusta intellectual teddy bear?"| "Yes"
[ Parent ]

9GB cigarette pack MP3 player? Duh! (3.25 / 4) (#28)
by Speare on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:21:24 PM EST

Emphatically, YES.

Hammacher Schlemmer offers the 4.6GB version for US$795. They're known for overpricing items. [No direct link, the website is framed. Search for MP3.]

ThinkGeek has the 6.0GB version for just US$600.

This specific variety has been around for over a year. I am sure we will get an upgrade in the next twelve months. Same form factor, more storage.

[ e d @ h a l l e y . c c ]
Hammacher Schlemmer mp3 player link (none / 0) (#32)
by Andrew Dvorak on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 12:59:47 PM EST

Here's a link to the mp3 player offered by Hammacher Schlemmer: http://www.hammacher.com/publish/74201.htm?pcat=&pcont=mp3%20KWSP&cat=mp3%20KWSP (just hope somewhere along the line they don't break the link on me :-) .

[ Parent ]
Predictions (2.80 / 5) (#33)
by menelaus on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 01:34:04 PM EST

1. The internet will change and be a major player in the market. There will be more subscription based services such as major corporations and such moving towards farmed out emails systems.

2. The US will become more dependant on the Internet, local storage of information will move to network storage so you can access you information anywhere and at any time.

3. Microsoft will continue to make headlines, and the will survive the storm of the legal battles for this year at least and fight in the appeals court. Though, they will start to lose thier dominence.

4. Broadband will continue to expand like wild fire

5. the Goverment will try and pass legislation to tax the internet. Either taxing email messages (postage) or a sales tax on all e-commerce sites

6. Half the country will hate bush. the other half will like him. Nothing in congress will get passed except for large, happy crappy make everyone feel good about themselves legislation like a tax cut or more money towards Social Security, or a raise for politicians =(

7. The Chicago Cubs will not win the World Series

8. I-mode will take over WAP

An Interesting Set, But... (2.50 / 2) (#36)
by greyrat on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 03:35:28 PM EST

7. The Chicago Cubs will not win the World Series

Ooooooooo! Going way out on a limb there, aren't we??

~ ~ ~
Did I actually read the article? No. No I didn't.
"Watch out for me nobbystyles, Gromit!"

[ Parent ]
Out on a Limb or two... (3.50 / 6) (#38)
by weathervane on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 04:17:07 PM EST

Sub $500 PCs
Yeah, they already exist, but I predict they'll become the big industry growth category, especially with the slowing economy. All the same hype that was sub $1000 a couple of years ago.

Playstation 2 Kablooey
The games will take too long to arrive. They've missed the Christmas market, and thus the biggest opening of stupid money. The games that do arrive will look like Pyros the crappy. Nobody will have much idea what to do with all those polygons except clone Doom (again). And RDRAM will never get cheap enough to allow economies of scale. All of this giving the X-Box a nice opening into the market.

Wireless Broadband
The next big airy balloon of hype (and stock prices). Actual product to follow. Unless they all go bankrupt in 2002.

Hot: Metals, Food, Transport, Military, Software.
Cold: Most OEMs, Wireless, Communications, Financial, Linux, E-Commerce, Retail.
NASDAQ Bottom: around 1800 in March. Up to about 3000 by EOY.
US $ - Down by about 30%

The Future (3.42 / 7) (#39)
by metachimp on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 04:41:18 PM EST

A couple of things for the future:

1. Microsoft will not be broken up. A conservative justice department will see to that.

2. Expect a war to break out somewhere that Dick Cheney can really sink his teeth into. Perhaps something in Afghanistan to extract Osama Bin Laden. Colombia also looks ripe for U.S. reservists to get shot in.

3. Broadband connections will become more common and less expensive, and mobile devices like the VisorPhone will begin to become omnipresent (more so than now)

4. With the complete mapping of the human genome, expect to see some amazing new advances in medical technology.

5. Expect to be blindsided by radical new technologies, coming from unlikely areas (more of the same)

6. Expect the Republicans to gut the EPA, one of their bete noirs.

That suggests a prediction for me (4.00 / 1) (#43)
by SIGFPE on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 06:05:54 PM EST

4. With the complete mapping of the human genome, expect to see some amazing new advances in medical technology.
Let me make my prediction about this: no new advances in medical technology will come out of the mapping of the human genome. It will certainly help with fundamental research - more genes will have their functionality better understood and a lot of interesting material will come from comparison with other species that are now getting mapped. In the long term this will transform medicine. But I don't think that any new medical technology will come about as a result of the mapping in the next year because we are a long way from translating a genetic sequence into a working drug.

I think the role of serendipity in drug design is much underappreciated and it's going to be a few years before drugs are really designed. I'm not sure the mapping is going to help with other kinds of therapy either.
[ Parent ]

Mah predictions. (2.85 / 7) (#40)
by dr3 on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 04:50:39 PM EST

1. Micheal jackson will come back from no where and start a new sub gener on the dance/techno scene called elcetro techno disco funkadelia.

2. Corporations will continue to rule over most world goverments, the WTO will become the enforcer of sorts surpassing nato and the UN in power (basicly allready happened). The US will become more involved with WTO further increasing american corporations power in other countries, there by allowing them to weasle there way into more markets by bending or revamping laws in other countries under the muse of unfair trade conditions. (this has happend allready, cant for the life of me rember where thought.. damnit all to hell..)

3. The antichrist will apear and yes it will be either tipper gore or martha stewart.

4.george bush SR will exposed for his involvement in some arms smuggling acts that were perpatrated in portugal which led to a supposed assination of a portugese offical (check out cyrptome.org or a direct link http://www.the-news.net/sacarneiro.htm ) But the main stream media will not pick up the story for the simple fact that there are only 40 something major corpoartions that own 98% of all media outlets in the entire world, meaning that time warner, cbs, abc adn what not will not run the story damaging our presidents father and his party for the simple fact that each company has given poltical party several million dollars. of course there not going to damage there on going relationship by breaking such evil falicies.

5. kids will continue to be suspended form school for wearing pepsi shirts on coke day.

6. The higher ups will continue to happen the flow of information in all forms (esp regarding comp sec and infosec) as these are black arts. you will see things as security focus and bugtraq being outlawed (there have been proposed bills allready, none to my knowledge have passed yet).

7. Microsoft will remain but it has passed its peak now it will start serving as almost a VC or incubator for other peoples ideas, just branding there name on products (hmm this aint predicting now).

8. There will continue to be loons on the net posting posts stateing that bigbrother is trying to take over there lives by brainwashing them with pop culture. ;)

9. I will still have a stressful job in IT.

10. k5 will grow and be bought out by some large corporation to make that corporations image better, by of course supporting the nerd underground and the open source movement. K5 staff will continue to remain in control on all aspects of the function and appearance of k5.

11. monkeys will sprout out of my arse and randomly mutilate cattle in upper england and around the world.

12. Aol will still suck.

13. Pop Music will continue on the brainless path that it is folowing. New teen ideals will come and go, some will stick around but in the end we all know there fake.

14. There will be more and more legal commotion in regards to crypto, distrobution schemes, and media.

15.Some one will create a software agent that will fix all my sp errors on the fly, in any program or window (using AI and/or fuzzy logic)

im done.
As Confused as a toddler in a topless bar.
predictions for the years to come (2.50 / 6) (#41)
by glmull on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 06:02:56 PM EST

I think technology is headed for a downtrend. I think that at some point, we'll see the International Space Station Station destroyed by meteors and things that come from outer space but I really don't see technology progressing very much further. I think that's the real question, if a civilization is destroyed then how does it recover it's technological knowledge base when things are in such disarray? Any comments, Rusty?
Zetatalk tells us what will happen in 2003.
Cool topic to discuss... (2.90 / 10) (#42)
by k5er on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 06:04:49 PM EST

I predict the following..

1) Linux will grow to encompass at least 10-15% of the desktop market

2) Linux,BSD, or *nix variant will replace most Microsoft servers.

3)More Gaming companies will produce games for Linux.

4)64-bit computing will not be common-place, at least not running software compiled and working at full potential.

5)K5 will become bigger than Slashdot.

6)DVD's will no longer be regional

7)George Bush Jr will screw up the country.

8)I'll get fired for telling my asshole manager to fuck off cause he's a dick head.

9)I'll score a really hot chick that likes computers.

10)Faster connections than cable will start to become commonplace at a reasonable price.
Long live k5, down with CNN.
Since I'm too cowardly to make my own predictions. (1.66 / 3) (#46)
by spacejack on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 07:47:46 PM EST

1) Linux will grow to encompass at least 10-15% of the desktop market

Hahah, very funny (you were supposed to wait for April 1 to post that).

2) Linux,BSD, or *nix variant will replace most Microsoft servers.

I fear the reverse.. companies don't like to have to hire high-priced gurus just to put up a web site. I however will continue to use it for mine.

3)More Gaming companies will produce games for Linux.

I think you can mark 1999 as the year Linux gaming died, however it will still be a good choice for game servers.

4)64-bit computing will not be common-place, at least not running software compiled and working at full potential.


5)K5 will become bigger than Slashdot.

Blasphemy! I love this site!

6)DVD's will no longer be regional

They will still be regional, but there will be plenty of workarounds.

7)George Bush Jr will screw up the country.

I'll let you Americans speculate on that one.

8)I'll get fired for telling my asshole manager to fuck off cause he's a dick head.

I predict the same for many people.

9)I'll score a really hot chick that likes computers.

I would have laughed a couple years ago, but damn, there are some fine babes using computers these days!

10)Faster connections than cable will start to become commonplace at a reasonable price.

Nah. The providers wouldn't be able to afford the bandwidth to support mass-market connections like that. Faster connections are here (here) already, but only the fanatics bother with it. I already know a couple people who got rid of their cable/DSL connections and went back to dialups.

Ok, I'll make a couple predictions: The public's fascination with computers & the web will begin to fade. Handhelds & similar devices become the new darlings as the public will be able to use them without having to deal with the in-your-face nature of the PC.

[ Parent ]
Does #9 really exist? (1.50 / 4) (#62)
by imperium on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 05:08:16 PM EST

The others may work. But #9 is a delusion. (apologies to all cute female K5'ers, I just haven't met you!)

Be like me, accept a cute chick who thinks her email client's called Outdoor Express (and yes, I have tried to warn her).


[ Parent ]

I agree.... (1.00 / 1) (#66)
by k5er on Sun Dec 24, 2000 at 10:00:37 AM EST

That post just made me laugh my ass off. But I must admit that you are probably rightright, I don't know any hot chicks that like computers.
Long live k5, down with CNN.
[ Parent ]
I agree.... (1.00 / 1) (#67)
by k5er on Sun Dec 24, 2000 at 10:01:15 AM EST

That post just made me laugh my ass off. But I must admit that you are probably rightright, I don't know any hot chicks that like computers.
Long live k5, down with CNN.
[ Parent ]
Of course she exists... (none / 0) (#77)
by GenericJoe on Fri Dec 29, 2000 at 11:59:08 AM EST

In fact, I'm pretty lucky, I'm dating two hot geeky women. There are lots of them out there, really. You just have to know where to look. GenericJoe

[ Parent ]
my predictions. (2.25 / 4) (#45)
by steven on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 07:35:14 PM EST

i live in australia, so this prediction is region-specific (like dvd's, heh). also this is the only major prediction that i can think of while three-quarters asleep after a long friday night ;).

broadband will become slightly cheaper, but will still be out of reach, both financially and in terms of location, for the majority of people. also, 'unlimited' broadband will continue to be 'not-so-unlimited'


My Predictions (American) (3.66 / 9) (#51)
by PacketMaster on Fri Dec 22, 2000 at 09:43:13 PM EST

1) The Time-Warner/AOL merger will be a bad bad bad deal for all of the current Time-Warner cable users (me being one of them). Time-Warner's cable system will quickly become the broadband AOL and normal Internet users will be forced to flee to unreliable DSL

2) DSL will still suck in terms of installation and support.

3) Copyright issues and copy-protection issues will reach a critical mass and the Federal government will have to address it with specific legislation.

4) Linux will remain pretty much where it is market-share-wise. Microsoft will stay where it is also becuase Microsoft won't get broken up.

5) Microsoft's .NET initiative will "slip" later and later.

6) President Bush, while not being every techie's favorite candidate (which makes no sense becuase Hollywood, RIAA, etc.. had Gore in their back pocket - everything techies are against.), will actually do positive things for the country in terms of education, social security, healthcare and general respectability of the office. The big tax cut won't get passed because of the slipping economy. Sorry. Had to add this one becuase of an earlier comment.

7) Java and JSP will become increasingly dominant on the Internet as HTML becomes more and more obsolete. PHP will also pick up significant marketshare.

8) People will realize that having web on your cell phone is a stupid marketing gimmick. Handspring will continue you have really great innovations in the transportable-web area.

9) IPv6 starts being implemented.

10) Unification of IM platforms begin.

Bush, Gore, Moe, Larry, Curly, etc. (none / 0) (#76)
by Steve B on Thu Dec 28, 2000 at 10:13:54 AM EST

President Bush, while not being every techie's favorite candidate (which makes no sense becuase Hollywood, RIAA, etc.. had Gore in their back pocket - everything techies are against.)

The interesting question: how to get the GOP's tension with Hollywood harnessed to the side of Good (reforming copyright protection back to reasonable scope and length, laws which protect fair use rights as firmly as they protect owners' rights) rather than Evil (censorship)?

[ Parent ]

Some Predictions... (4.50 / 8) (#54)
by lucas on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 12:32:10 AM EST

As more layoffs continue and consumer confidence erodes, recession will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. People expect payback to come for the wastefulness of the past two - three years and, coupled with layoffs and the decline of the uberbloated tech industry, it will gradually turn into recession. Some localized areas of the economy will profit, but most will decline across the board.

Erosion of rights will continue largely unnoticed as people begin using DVDs and hard drive makers use the new ATA specs we've heard about. Though Linux's height of popularity was during late '99 to early '00, keeping hold of the GPL will prove worthy and extremely beneficial for power users, but not for the mass computer users who will prefer ease of use. Someone will discover a way to crack the ATA specs and he will have his computer equipment confiscated and the code will be repressed.

Hackers will become more resented and more misunderstood as kr4x0r skr1pt kiddies fsck up some key websites or online resources. As the erosion of rights continues, however, white hats will be viewed as necessary to regain or promote certain freedoms. Hackers will always have a degree of freedom that the average person doesn't.

Most public (IPO'ed) Linux or proprietary UNIX companies (a la SCO/Caldera, etc.) will fade or die with the exception of one or possibly two. Red Hat will start to show serious financial difficulties by Q2 or Q3. As a company based on a less-than-perfect proprietary technology with only a niche market and no fab plant, Transmeta's recent IPO means they will also have to convince investors that Crusoe is not a BetaMax or a NeXT Computer -- superior in design, but expensive and too niche-oriented for a proprietary product that needs mass marketing.

Intel will try to dump some of their consumer hardware products to focus on their microprocessors and reclaim marketshare lost to AMD. Since Intel has already spread themselves too thin, however, AMD will continue to clone it better and cheaper. Intel will remain as the stiff-lipped inventor and AMD will remain as the witty innovator.

Debian will gain more popularity as the "Linux Distribution" as end-users want to use Linux but have problems with Red Hat's continuing problems with QC and focus on the Enterprise market, consisting largely of failing dot-coms and ISPs. Linus' refusal to be friendly to Big Iron clashes with Red Hat's focus on it. No code fork happens, however.

Linux, having established its marketing message already, will not be viewed as a "revolution" anymore (this will be highly passe and frowned upon as overly propagandic) and the dogma will have been toned down as we can already see... even on Slashdot. Most users will go back to/continue using products by Microsoft, which will continue to muscle around competitors, but just under the margin to provoke public ire again.

Overall Linux and BSD use will continue to increase as they are both used instead of proprietary UNIXes on servers. End-user usage will increase gradually, but both flavors of UNIX will continue to be viewed as niche products.

For those that remain, the free software community will once again become a smallish community, but the developments in free software will be noticed by popular media from its previous exposure. This will be a mixed blessing.

Linus' book will be overpromoted with a nice smiling pic of him on the front with his arms folded... and he'll lose overall credibility as the angrier portions of the community call him a sell-out. There will be mutations of the photograph published on the Internet that some will place as their X desktop.


Prediction addendums (4.00 / 1) (#73)
by meldroc on Wed Dec 27, 2000 at 02:55:07 AM EST

Economics: Yes, there will indeed be a recession next year, and the tech industry will be slapped especially hard, when all the companies with names prefixed by "E-" or suffixed by ".com" go belly up. On a related note...

Politics: Dubya Bush will be able to get very little done as President, having won the presidency by the skin of his teeth, having little mandate, and having a Congress with a Senate split 50/50 between Republicans and Democrats. For me, this is an ideal situation. But when the recession hits, people will be PISSED, and Dubya will be at the right place at the right time to be a handy scapegoat. After the 2002 election, Congress will almost certainly be controlled by Democrats. In the long term, nothing will change.

[ Parent ]

64 bit computing? (2.25 / 4) (#56)
by Les on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 03:17:58 AM EST

Will 64 bit computing become commonplace?

Depending on your platform 64 bit computing is not only commonplace but obsolete.

The PowerPC 750 (G3) that powers 2-3 year old macintoshes is 64-bit. The chip most commonly used now, the PowerPC 7400 (G4) is actually a 128-bit chip.

BZZT, wroong, but thank you for playing... (4.00 / 2) (#70)
by ksandstr on Sun Dec 24, 2000 at 12:37:28 PM EST

If the 7400 is 128-bit, then so are the P3 and Celeron2 as well - remember, they both have those lovely 128-bit XMM registers. Also, the Pentium MMX would have been, by this logic, 64-bit because the MMX registers are 64 bits wide.

Get real.

[ Parent ]
My Predictions For Next Year (2.75 / 4) (#58)
by dyskordus on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 04:08:56 AM EST

  • Colombia will be invaded by the U.S. If we win, the economy will turn around. If we lose, it will tank.
  • RAM will get even cheaper
  • Gas will cost more
  • High School will still provide the great education needed for minimum wage jobs
  • I will make more money
  • I will have a better car
  • Mainstream music will still be shit
  • More White House scandals than in all eight of the Clinton years combined.
  • "Dubaya" jokes

"Reality is less than television."-Brian Oblivion.
.Dubaya (none / 0) (#65)
by Nyarlathotep on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 09:13:07 PM EST

<i>More White House scandals than in all eight of the Clinton years combined.</i>

Wow! That is a tall order! I suppose it is possible for Dubaya to top all of Clinton's corruption within one year and still not top one year of Reagan's presidency.. Reagan is probable the all time king of corruption by a log shot.

Campus Crusade for Cthulhu -- it found me!
[ Parent ]
Will Microsoft still be one company? (2.66 / 3) (#60)
by DickBreath on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 11:42:18 AM EST

Will Microsoft still be one company?

I predict that the new administration will decide that DOJ has been too hard on poor Microsoft. Give poor MS a break. In order to fix the monopoly situation, but to cut MS some slack, the new administration will revise the breakup order as follows...

Wintel will now be ordered to split into two seperate corporations. One which totally controls the hardware, henceforth known as Intel; and one which totally controls the software, henceforth known as Microsoft.NET.

That should remedy the monopoly problems which people have been complaining about.

Next Year (1.00 / 1) (#61)
by Manish on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 03:13:35 PM EST

This January will move me to 4th Semester. The August will do it to 5th Semester.


View from Britain in 2001 (3.33 / 6) (#63)
by holdfast on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 07:17:24 PM EST

This is for those of us from the UK and any other readers here who know where this is.

1. We will continue to pay incredible prices for our fuel. It will pass 1 per litre by the summer.
(It is 90pence per litre now and there is no way this will improve.)

2. Hollywood will continue to try and stop us from buying our DVDs over the internet. They will try and get laws passed here to outlaw buying region 1 DVDs. They will fail at present.
(They have suceeded in getting this part way through the French system already.)

3. William Hague the leader of the UK Conservative party will say even more stupid and xenophobic things than before. He will propose that we leave the European Union and Join NAFTA.
(He already has proposed that!)

4. Independent TV companies will buy each other up madly and rich Australians will buy them.
(This has started.)

5. People will use the Internet more to buy things but there will be more scandals caused by leaks of credit card information from badly ocnfigured websites.
(I'd put money on it.)

6. Linux will continue on its slow progress. "Experts" will continually warn about 'fragmentation' and advise people to stick with their masters Micro$oft.

7. The world will watch in shock/suprise/disgust/glee as the new US president does his best to turn his country into a land fit for rich people with guns.
(Who wants to see if he got a campaign contribution from the NRA?)

"Holy war is an oxymoron."
Lazarus Long
Bush and NRA (4.00 / 1) (#64)
by Nyarlathotep on Sat Dec 23, 2000 at 09:04:29 PM EST

Bush got a LOT of support from the NRA this ellection. Actually, he could have been a mild gun control advocte ago and the NRA still would have supported him. It not just that the NRA is mindlessly republican, but that Clinton/Gore were really making a move for more gun control too, so a conservative who really likes our current gun controls could have no trouble getting lots of NRA money.

Our exit poles shoulded that guns were a *major* factor getting conservatives out to vote this election. Gore would have won the election dispite Nadar if there had not been that whole million mom thing. Anyway, the conservatives owe their ass to the NRA and corrupt Florida officials for this election and everyone knows it. The only real question is: dose the NRA want removal of existing gun controls or just to keeps the status quo?


Campus Crusade for Cthulhu -- it found me!
[ Parent ]
Lazarus Long (none / 0) (#72)
by mad-ness on Mon Dec 25, 2000 at 04:49:52 AM EST

If I remember correctly, Heinlein was pretty big on people being allowed to carry guns. I seem to remember him implying that everyone carrying guns might lead to better manners.... BTW, I KNOW Lazarus Long was against gun control, not to mention just about every other type of governmental action or intervention. The real reason that I responded though is that Lazarus Long's "notes" have some of the coolest quotes ever created. =) Nice sig.

Insert witty signature here.
[ Parent ]
predictions (3.20 / 5) (#68)
by cpfeifer on Sun Dec 24, 2000 at 10:32:52 AM EST

Here are a few of my predicitons:
  • Napster becomes a puppet of Bertelsmann AG, people actually have to start paying to download their music and it's original user base flees in horror. The quality of the content increases a little bit. Old school users will tell AOL users of the good old days over their chat medium of choice (IM, IRC...)
  • YAOSP (yet another open source project) will start to create a network where folks can search for MP3s stored on machines across the internet. None of the networks will gain the required critical mass to bring the user base (which bring the content) to make it ubiquitous. Fragmentation of the delivery of online music has been achieved.
  • Record industry execs return to sleeping at night. Artists are still pissed off.
  • 6.02 * 10^23 new open source projects will start up on sourceforge to build a better notepad. They will all start and end with the same number of participants, one.
  • Gnutella collapses under it's own weight. People get tired of everyone downloading and no one contributing.
  • CPU clocks speeds double, harddisk capacity doubles, writable mass storage (CDR, CDRW, DVD...) capacity doubles and time-to-burn time gets cut by 75%
  • Record industry execs stop sleeping at night. Unsigned artists building their fanbases through grassroots efforts revel as the playing field is leveled again.
  • The stock market will go up.
  • The stock market will go down.
  • The wheels on the bus will go round and round.
  • Some people in parts of the world will still not get enough to eat.
  • Some people in America will still be homeless.
  • Mainstream music will still suck.
  • You will go to a concert at a small venue featuring a local band. Their lyrics will be sincere & resonate with their audience. The next day they will appear on TRL, and you won't like them anymore. You & your friends will talk about how they've changed, and how you "liked their first album, but now they're a sellout."
  • Next week that same band will file a copyright infringement lawsuit against an open source music distribution network. "They're stealing from us!" they claim.

--- "What's the point of waking up in the morning if you don't try to match the enourmousness of the known forces in the world with something powerful in your own life?" - Don Delillo, "Underworld"
Looking into the future, all the way... (4.25 / 4) (#75)
by Denor on Wed Dec 27, 2000 at 02:59:01 PM EST

... to the year 2000!

(With all due apologies to Conan O' Brien...)

In the year 2000....

  • The national enquirer will run a three-page expose on the secret sexual life of site admin Rusty. The Diary feature of K5 will disappear shortly afterwards, without explanation.
  • Everything any Kuro5hin site admin says will be turned into a sig by someone. The site will be temporarily unavailable due to massive posting when everyone tries to explain what's so funny about quotes like "I'm going to the store, you want anything?" to those not in the know.
  • In a bizzare and completely coincidental twist of fate, Slashdot will officially change its name to "That other site"
  • The default poll option changes from "Inoshiro" to "Colonel Sanders". Rusty, swimming in a pool filled with $100 bills, denies this is due to corporate influence.
  • In a shocking departure from the norm, the person who gets the first post on the first story of 2000 will not mention it at all or go on to draw an ASCII art penis bird, instead making an interesting topical comment that is rated 4.
  • Kawasaki's research division #5 forms a cabal with other motorcycle dealers, finally forcing Rusty to admit that there is, in fact, a K5 cabal.
  • The next release of the scoop source code is delayed, according to maintainers, due to "that damned signal 11". The ex-slashdotter Signal 11 is lynched by an angry mob before it is revealed that the administration was "talking about an actual segmentation fault."
  • The number of Kuro5hin stories on Segfault will rival the amount of fake lawsuit stories. Fake lawsuit stories everywhere will file a class action suit.
  • Finally tired of its slowly degrading quality, CmdrTaco will leave Slashdot and join K5. His first story will be an MLP with 40 links entitled: "Quickies: the fun never stops"
  • Jon Katz attempts to submit a story to the submission queue. The resultant flame is powerful enough to fuel all of Earth's energy requirements for the next 400 years.
  • Default poll choice madness will strike even those who have never been in contact with the website. Grocery store baggers will now ask the question "Paper, plastic, or Store Manager Ralph Dermons?"

    And finally....

  • Inoshiro and Rusty finally get tired of the liberties that posters such as Denor take with their lives and their websites, and begin a wide campaign of assassination and stalking of their berators. Denor's life begins to take on characteristics of many James Bond movies, but disappointingly ceases rather abruptly immediately before the parts involving women. :)


Predictions for the coming year | 78 comments (73 topical, 5 editorial, 0 hidden)
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