Kuro5hin.org: technology and culture, from the trenches
create account | help/FAQ | contact | links | search | IRC | site news
[ Everything | Diaries | Technology | Science | Culture | Politics | Media | News | Internet | Op-Ed | Fiction | Meta | MLP ]
We need your support: buy an ad | premium membership

[P]
Predictions for 2004

By jayhawk88 in Op-Ed
Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 07:20:35 PM EST
Tags: Culture (all tags)
Culture

Continuing what seems to have become somewhat of an annual tradition here at K5, I present to you Predictions for 2004, plus a brief look at back last year's predictions.


Author jjayson's own predictions last year were overall pretty good. He was mostly right in his economic predictions of no new major accounting scandals and a modest second half rally in the economy (though this is perhaps up for some debate still). His predictions on North Korea were in the end mostly right (the issue was relegated to the back burner for the most part), but for other reasons. His predictions on Iraq were, obviously, the biggest miss, as there was a war, while his sports predictions were mostly on target, save for the Sacramento Kings and Yao Ming predictions (Yao's good, but I wouldn't call him an "absolute force").

Other predictions of note from comments: Many correctly predicted there would be a war in Iraq, as well as the North Korea situation not going anywhere, though this seems to have been the extent of K5ers wisdom. Eisernkreuz get credit for correctly prediction the non-capture of Osama bin Laden (along with some others), and evilpenguin correctly forsaw the suck that was Matrix: Revolutions. There were many missed sports predictions, though DJBongHit deserves mention for putting the Raiders in the SuperBowl.

Apologies to any amazingly correct predictions I missed, but enough of the past, let's look into the future.

Iraq/Middle East: Iraq will continue to be the major news story of 2004. US military occupation will last the entire year, but progress in the country will continue to be made, although at a very slow and costly process. Likewise, terrorist activity within the country will continue on as well, though American casualties will drop as order is slowly restored to the region.

Osama bin Laden will continue to evade capture, mostly due to the focus on Iraq. Israel/Palestine will continue their conflict throughout the year with little progress, though serious peace negotiations will be pushed for by the Bush Administration before the 2004 elections.

2004 Elections: Bush will win a second term against Howard Dean, but the race will be closer than some might expect due to increasing frustration with the continued American military presence in Iraq. Democrats will begin pushing the "Hillary in 2008" campaign almost the second the final chad hits the floor.

North Korea/Rest of World: Continued focus on Iraq will leave North Korea in the shadows again for most of 2004, though non-action now will come back to haunt our country several years down the road. China will continue to grow in importance and power on the international stage, and will see US relations become strained as it becomes clear that China is the worlds next great SuperPower.

Economy: Will be up and down most of the year. Every "good news indicator" will be followed shortly by continued signs of consumer doubt and stagnation, preventing any significant growth. The Dow will float around the 10k mark for most of the year, but will never climb significantly above it.

Technology: A slow year for tech, as Windows Longhorn continues to be delayed and AMD/Intel will struggle to get their respective 64-bit processors on their feet. A sputtering economy will force many tech companies into survival mode, making employment in the tech industry a risky proposition. Security will buck the industry trend, however, as new worms, viruses, and hacker attacks continue to plauge businesses. Lack of significant product from Redmond will mean good times for Linux vendors, though 2004 will see more than a few succumb to Mr. Darwin. Smaller, sub-$100 iPods will be release by Apple and quickly become the hot item of the year.

Sports: 2004 in sports will be known as the Year of Steroids, as alegations and revelations of use become more widespread, particularly in baseball. Many more former players will come forward to admit use while they were playing. Pete Rose will finally admit to betting on baseball, and will be declared Hall of Fame eligible by the end of the year. Major Sport Winners:

College Football BCS: Oklahoma. USC wins too, though, resulting in a "split" championship between BCS and the polls.
Super Bowl: Patriots (God I want to pick the Chiefs though)
NBA Championship: Lakers. Gutsy pick I know, but Malone and Payton will not be denied after selling their souls.
Stanley Cup: Flyers. Picking hockey playoffs is a crapshoot in the best of years, so what the hell.
NCAA Men's Basketball: Arizona. The best starting lineup in the land stays healthy and gives Arizona the championship they feel they were denied last year.
World Series: Boston. Shilling and a grueling AL East schedule will make them ready for the Yankees in the playoffs this year.

Entertainment: Return of the King will be denied Best Picture Oscar, but will pick up a Best Director for Peter Jackson in recognition for the trilogy. This will be a down year for movies in general, but will conversely be a banner year for DVD sales, particularly boxed-sets. Television will continue to see ratings slip as more people get tired of the SameOldThing(tm), and video games continue to increase in popularity among older adults.

Teh Intarweb: Business as usual for our favorite Corporate Time Waster. Blogging will fall by the wayside, as yet another slightly different method for telling the world things they don't really care about becomes hot. P2P file sharing apps become less popular as "legitimate" services like Napster 2.0 and iTunes become more popular with average computer users. Internet news sites of all kind will continue to be the "go to" places for breaking news/disaster news, as mainstream media becomes more and more antiquated.

Sponsors

Voxel dot net
o Managed Hosting
o VoxCAST Content Delivery
o Raw Infrastructure

Login

Poll
Rate how accurate my predictions will be
o 100-95%, Spot on with almost everything 2%
o 95-80%, Why aren't you playing the market? 4%
o 80-50%, OK, not bad overall 39%
o 50-30%, Boston? Are you high? 28%
o 30-10%, Hey, even a blind squirrel.... 12%
o 10-0%, WTF u d00fus? 11%

Votes: 108
Results | Other Polls

Related Links
o annual
o tradition
o Eisernkreu z
o evilpengui n
o DJBongHit
o Also by jayhawk88


Display: Sort:
Predictions for 2004 | 256 comments (246 topical, 10 editorial, 0 hidden)
You forgot one (1.00 / 22) (#1)
by Single White Coder on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 01:06:01 PM EST

Sex:  You'll still be an anti-social virgin Linux fanboi ;)

I Offer No Apologies For Being Motivated By The Basest Desires (Excessive Amounts Of Sex, Food, & Sleep)

[ Biker Blog ]

You are correct (1.50 / 4) (#3)
by jayhawk88 on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 01:15:27 PM EST

About one of the three. I'll leave it to you to guess which one.

Why, then, should we grant government the Orwellian capability to listen at will and in real time to our communications across the Web? -- John Ashcroft
[ Parent ]
Let me guess. (1.83 / 6) (#4)
by tkatchev on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 01:24:17 PM EST

Going blind from pornography means you're not a virgin anymore?

Or do you mean that you managed to score while attending a Linux User Group?

   -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
[ Parent ]

My Prediction (2.00 / 13) (#2)
by Baal on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 01:06:57 PM EST

Either shortly before or after the next presidential election another major terrorist attack will occur. Martial law will be instated. After a short period George Bush will be declared Supreme Dictator of the World.

The world will not be happy about this. Hillary Clinton will lead a revolution against the opressors but her army will be quickly struck down by tactical nuclear weapons.

Russia will get fed up and launch their entire nuclear arsenal at the United States. The United States will respond with Antimatter bombs currently being developed in top-secret laboratories.

The sky will turn black. George Bush will reveal that he is really a robot. The machines will take over. We all will die.

We will all die. (none / 3) (#5)
by tkatchev on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 01:25:02 PM EST

Is this before or after the earth is blown up?

   -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
[ Parent ]

Why don't you go back to Adequacy? (1.28 / 7) (#6)
by Baal on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 01:29:19 PM EST

Oh wait, you can't. Why not go here instead? They'll eat your controversial opinions right up.

[ Parent ]
Thanks alot, dude. (none / 1) (#37)
by tkatchev on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 07:15:16 AM EST

Next time I want to do something, I'll be sure to ask for your englightened opinion first.

   -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
[ Parent ]

obligatory Morpheus quote (none / 2) (#77)
by Alt SysRq B on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 09:32:11 PM EST

I don't know that, but...
"...but it is us who scorched the sky."

[ Parent ]
My set of predictions. (2.33 / 6) (#7)
by Run4YourLives on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 01:41:44 PM EST

  1. There will be a minor terrorist attack on the US - a major attack is not forthcoming, but the US will act as if one was/is, and increased security and denial of freedom will continue.  
  2. Bush will win the election, and the rest of the world will shake it's head once again.
  3. There will continue to be a growing gap between common folk and corporate/government elite. Personal bankruptcies and corporate profits will hit record highs again. Although not in 2004, the onset of major conflicts and unrest within western countries will be triggered by a  economic collapse in the US within the coming years.
  4. Vancouver will win the Stanley Cup. Other sports are not important.
  5. Paul Martin will win the Canadian election, narrowly beating a surprising closer to center NDP. The new Conservative party will be left struggling for offical party status.
  6. Kuro5hin will not survive the year, and none of us will be reading about this articl next year.


It's slightly Japanese, but without all of that fanatical devotion to the workplace. - CheeseburgerBrown
Our buisiness. (none / 1) (#212)
by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 08:15:38 AM EST

Why should we care what Europeans think of our political figures? They, after all, nominate or elect such paragons of statesmanship like Jorg Haider of Austria, Schroder (winner of the 2002 "I went anti-American because I wanted to win and a fucked economy" award), half the euro-weenies in the EU parliment, and Jack "Partying like its 1805" Chirac.

Our politics are our buisness. If the rest of the world wants to vote, immigrate. Heck, the US already has far more political and social freedoms than most European countries (Sedition is only banned in like, 70% of them).

Bush is going to get elected. Get over it. Its what the people who vote in America want.


KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
[ Parent ]
Prediction (1.10 / 10) (#10)
by flippy on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 02:11:26 PM EST

Oxygen (o2) will be discovered to me the most deadly substance on the planet.  Scientists will correlate the following:

All humans breath oxygen.
All humans die.

Oxygen therefore is dangerous and should be banned by the FDA.

flippy


My Predictions (1.55 / 9) (#11)
by Recreational Abortion on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 02:12:42 PM EST

Howard Dean wins with a surprising majority, immediately rolls back the patriot act, redoubles US efforts to involve foreign troops in iraq, and lays the full brunt of US military might in the hunt for Osama.

Meanwhile, Osama's minions are busy smuggling in nuclear and biological devices, and hiding them in major metropolitian centers.

The Dean administration then captures Osama, but the minions reveal their fait acompoli, and use it to bargain Osama in a secret deal to bring the dispute to a close.

The terrorists set off the bomb anyway, and high tail it back to Packistan, while 50 Million people die.  This could take place in Washington DC, in which case the entire US government will be in shambles for a period of time, as state governors form an interim government and lead the disaster effort.

The nuclear radiation, combined with the biological weapons, give rise to not-quite-humans, some of which have surprisingly powerful powers.

Anyway, those are my predictions.
----
colorless green ideas sleep furiously

further predictions (2.28 / 7) (#16)
by JyZude on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 03:07:28 PM EST

Hello. When you find the dimensional wormhole to this alternate universe, please let me know the location. I'd like to visit. Other predictions:

Dean discovers Osama is his father.

Osama's minions grow underneath the New York subway system, and look like orcs.

Radiation fallout gives children ESP, and they build a balloon and float to Australia.

Tom Clancy books no longer sell because his plots are too boring and simplistic in comparison to the New York Times.

-----
k5 is not the new Adequacy k thnx bye


[ Parent ]
I understand that these shouldn't be taken... (none / 2) (#127)
by NoMoreNicksLeft on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:46:16 PM EST

Quite that seriously. Still the "suprisingly powerful powers" bit. What are you, a 12 yr old?

Maybe they'll get the power to have their cells run amok, dividing at an insane and unstainable pace, stealing nutrients from the entire host.

Or be born with the power to have their entire genome go berserk, giving them an array of bizarre and non-helpful congenital deformities.

Yes, mutagenic phenonema can cause all sorts of super-powers like these... I can't wait. I think I'll go eat some plutonium.

--
Do not look directly into laser with remaining good eye.
[ Parent ]

yes please do (none / 1) (#139)
by Recreational Abortion on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 07:06:52 PM EST

you need your head examined.
----
colorless green ideas sleep furiously
[ Parent ]
Predictions (1.28 / 7) (#12)
by DominantParadigm on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 02:24:49 PM EST

Bush wins in a landslide, since he represents the will and resolve of the majority of the American people.

More news in the media to make Americans afraid, and Michael Moore makes a mint pimping this old thesis. Still doesn't bother with any data

Less Disasters in Canada than this year.



Caller:So you're advocating bombing innocent children? Howard Stern:Yes, of course!


Bush wins... (none / 0) (#197)
by error 404 on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 01:14:41 PM EST

in a landslide because he represents the intelligence and nuanced foreign policy insights of the majority of the American people.

Laura realizes what she's married to and joins a monestary - which requires special Papal intervention because she is neither Catholic nor a man. Bush takes Madona as his queen.


..................................
Electrical banana is bound to be the very next phase
- Donovan

[ Parent ]

My last years predictions and this years (2.84 / 13) (#14)
by Stick on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 02:35:15 PM EST

Here is last years (2003) with my comments on them now

1. kwsNI and Spyderfarie will break up this year.
This one came through. The fact that I told them to break up 30 times a may have had an influence. As far as I know they're both still friends and kwsNI is doing well for himself designing fighter jets.

2. Linux will stagnate on the desktop. The techie/geek community will start to migrate over to Windows 2000/XP as their desktop systems. Slashdot will be slightly more Microsoft friendly.
I feel this one has come true although it is subjective. Redhat has pulled out of the desktop arena pretty much and many people are quite happy with Windows 2000 and XP. Saying positive things about Microsoft on Slashdot has become more and more common in my opinion.

3. Iraq will not be invaded this year
I really screwed up on this one.

4. I will be rich (no, seriously)
I am richer, but not rich. I brought a lot of stablity to my business this year which has meant a nice pay raise for me, however the activities that I expected to make rich last year will only be happening this year.

5. K5 will have another financial crisis
Totally wrong on this one. Ruston has did quite a good job keeping K5 afloat. The text ads bring in a regular amount of cash, and using the google adverts was a great idea. I still think the site still has a lot more money making potential (without annoying everyone in the process).

6. tombuck will lose his job
This kind of came through. Does it count if he quit?


Below are this years predictions (2004) also with comments

1. I will be rich (no, seriously)
I'm going with this one again because if it's going to happen it will be within the next two years. Sales will be quite a big thing for me this year.

2. HuSi traitors will start to make reappearances here
They'll soon be bored of only having each other to talk to. It's like the Linux effect. It's great for while because it doesn't have the same flaws as Windows however you eventually go back to Windows after you realise Linux has plenty of it's own flaws.

3. It will be good year for Apple
Microsoft can't really go much further with the desktop. With Steve Jobs back in charge I expect Apple to catch up and possibly overtake with some interesting innovations (real ones, not Microsoft innovations). 2003 was a good year for them and they really have improved the perception of Macs. Even I want to get a Mac now.

4. Progress will be made on the CMF
I've given Ruston plenty of slack on this because I know how hard it can be getting all these things together but it really is starting to drag on. He needs to take a holiday and come back refreshed and just get stuck in. I'll be badgering him to get it moving forward again.

5. Bush will not be re-elected
If I get this one wrong it matter because we'll all be dead anyway.

6. Osama Bin Laden will not be caught
The US have proved their incompetence in this area. They only caught Saddam because someone else turned him in. I doubt the same will happen in this case as he has quite a few loyal followers and hasn't oppressed a middle eastern country as Saddam did.

7. Linux on the desktop will still progress slowly if at all
I don't have to much hope for Linux on the desktop. Too much infighting, no strong leadership, and a lack of willingness to tackle the flaws will prevent any real progress from happening. The only thing I can see happening is a company making a Linux system that is easy to use but can still run various programs out there. Lindows tried this but I think they failed in many aspects.

8. noogie will grow a beard
If not I'll just hide his razor.

9. IE will remain the default browser for many
Due to piss poor marketing with mozilla and all the other web browsers IE will remain the number one browser.


---
Stick, thine posts bring light to mine eyes, tingles to my loins. Yea, each moment I sit, my monitor before me, waiting, yearning, needing your prose to make the moment complete. - Joh3n

Apple will "catch up"? (none / 0) (#135)
by Sap on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 04:06:24 PM EST

You honestly think that Apple, with its market share of something like 3% (according to the latest Google zeitgeist), will overtake Microsoft in one year?

Same goes for your IE prediction.  Again, according to Google, it looks like MS has something like a 95% marketshare.  I think your prediction that third party browsers won't become the majority is pretty sound.

[ Parent ]

Are you a gambling man? (none / 2) (#15)
by ti dave on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 02:40:23 PM EST

Play the odds.
"If you dial," Iran said, eyes open and watching, "for greater venom, then I'll dial the same."

both (none / 1) (#17)
by Run4YourLives on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 03:24:04 PM EST

Saving Private Ryan and Traffic were robbed.

It's slightly Japanese, but without all of that fanatical devotion to the workplace. - CheeseburgerBrown
[ Parent ]
Out of the four... (none / 1) (#19)
by ti dave on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 03:54:44 PM EST

I don't own "Shakespeare in Love".

Make of that what you will.

"If you dial," Iran said, eyes open and watching, "for greater venom, then I'll dial the same."

[ Parent ]
it wasn't a bad movie... (none / 1) (#21)
by Run4YourLives on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 04:02:50 PM EST

It wasn't "Best Picture" either.

It's slightly Japanese, but without all of that fanatical devotion to the workplace. - CheeseburgerBrown
[ Parent ]
I'll play along (2.71 / 7) (#18)
by godix on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 03:30:15 PM EST

Iraq - Progress will continue to be made and power will slowly be handed back to the Iraqis, although US troops will still be there. Once things quiet down the UN will step in and take an active role in reconstuction (expect more arguements about this). The media will continue to paint Iraq as a miserable failure but they will lose interest as the election comes up however since Iraq will be an election issue there will still be some stories. After the election all major media coverage of Iraq will stop as they move on to another story, probably Iran or Syria. You'll hear about Iraq about as often as you currently hear about Afghan.

Israel - Same old, same old. There will be an attempt at peace sometime in the year which will fail because the Hamas continues attacking. This will end up increasing Sharons power base since he'll claim peace was tried and now it's time to kick ass. Arafat will still be around as a token figurehead but it'll become increasingly clear that he doesn't have much real influence in the Palestinian power structure. The year will end with things basically the same as they are now.

Iran/Syria - As things in Iraq quiet down America will take an increasingly hardline stance against Iran and Syria. Syria will probably make appeasing actions but Iran will try to face down America. Things will become tense but there will not be an actual war. In late December all the same things we saw pre-Iraq war will just be starting again (IE protesters, UN bickering, US and Europe bitching about each other, etc). This is the story that will drive Iraq out of the news.

Saudi Arabia and Bin Laden - America will not find Bin Laden and will basically give up searching, although we won't admit we failed. With the pressure off and the US busy elsewhere expect Bin Laen to start on his real goal, overthrowing Saudi Arabia. I predict at least one major terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia this year and by years end things will look like Suadi Arabia is heading for a revolution. America will stay out of it, although in private our leaders will laugh and go 'serves em right'.

Terrorism - It will continue world-wide although there will be no foreign terrorist attack on US soil. Our own wackos may do something but other countries wackos will leave us alone. The anti-terrorism rah-rah crap will continue because Israel and Saudi Arabia will keep it in the news.

Election - Bush will beat Dean in both the electoral and popular vote, although not by a landslide. Major issues for Dean will be the economy, Iraq, and health care. Bush will rest on his laurels because the economy is improving, Iraq isn't bad now and will quiet down, and he got through the perscription drug benefits. Expect talk of another tax cut but there won't be one.

Economy - There will be gains but it'll be the 'two steps forward one step back' type.

Technology - Intel will falter on their first 64 bit processor and lose ground to AMD. No major breakthroughs will happen, instead the year will be focused on increasing the abilities of existing toys like the ipod.

Sports - Some teams will win, most will lose. People will act like it's important which teams these are.

Entertainment - It'll be another summer where no movie dominates. In television news, the reality TV show fad will continue fading. American Idol will be hyped as all hell but will have about 20% less viewship. Entertainment news will focus on sitcoms as the next big thing. Expect a marriage, a divorce, a career ending movie, legal problems, and a death this year; perhaps even by the same actor/actress. Michael Jackson will either not go to trial or will be found innocent. America won't give a damn and it'll be general opinion that he diddles kids.

Legal - The SCO case will end up being thrown out, and early in the year. The push for anti-terrorism legislation will die out but we'll be stuck with the crap we currently have. The RIAA will be quiet for the start of the year while it's licking it's plublicity wounds but will come back strong, and just as dumb, later.

Business - Europe will go through the same crap America went through when Enron failed. SCO will fall, MS will stay the same, and Halbitron will end up with some investigations that turn up nothing.

K5 - The exodus of old users will continue. New users will make sure the predictions of K5's death won't be true. Rusty might post an article. The CMF will still be in limbo. There will be another fiction contest that gets trolled to death although it'll be in the diaries so it's easy to ignore. Localroger will get so pissed about it that he leaves. Major topics this year will be Iran, how Bush is going to lose, how horrible it is that Bush won, food, and of course the ever present crapflood from trolls.

Other - There will be no more mad cows in America and it'll be quickly forgotten by everyone. Canada will end up eating some crow and have to destroy a couple hundred more cows just to be safe but they won't have more cases either.

Well, at least I shall die as I have lived. Completely surrounded by morons.
- Black Mage

i think the largest legal case... (none / 2) (#24)
by Work on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 05:47:38 PM EST

will be the michael jackson trial.

I predict he will be found innocent. Whether this will have the same circus atmosphere that OJ had will depend on whether the judge allows cameras in the court room (I predict they won't).

[ Parent ]

mj (none / 3) (#33)
by horny smurf on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 11:31:07 PM EST

I predict he goes to jail for contempt of court when he refuses to take his surgical mask off. Jury can't agree on molestation charges, but finds him guilty of being very fucking weird. In CBS interview, he denies having had plastic surgery, but admits to taking bubble baths with little boys. "It's not what you're thinking, it's very cute, and we always lube ourselves up first" he explains.

[ Parent ]
My Prediction (1.50 / 3) (#22)
by ComradeFork on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 05:20:37 PM EST

In the dark day, the prince shall come forth and deal abominably with the king of the west. For I have spoken. And Stuff.

Predictions for '04 (1.83 / 6) (#23)
by maynard on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 05:36:48 PM EST

Economy:

Significant short term upturn for the United States primarily due to central bank policy (low interest rates) and dollar depreciation finally taking root. As we've seen across the last quarter of '03, the majority of the financing will flow into a new stock market bubble. The upturn will likely last four to six quarters, long enough to ensure Bush's reelection. Further specific predictions:

a) The FED will raise interest rates between 25 and 50 basis points before '04 year end.

b) The mortgage refinancing market will die, and due to this the housing market will decline across the board by up to 10% across the US. In certain overpriced urban markets such as Boston, New York, and San Francisco, expect declines as large as 20% - 30%. Mortgage defaults will continue to rise across '04.

c) Unemployment will ease, and demand for technology skills will return to the moderate levels seen before the tech bubble run-up. This will last unless/until bank policy tightens or the dollar tightens in a run-up against the Euro / Yen. After that, expect a severe recession again sometime in '05.

Politics:

General Republican sweep:

a) With five democratic senate races due to resignation all showing signs of being highly contested, expect Republicans to take a clear majority in the Senate, though not a "super-majority" of +2/3rd.

b) House Gerry Mandering will work as expected, thus further increasing a Republican majority in the house.

c) Bush wins re-election, though highly contested. It's possible, though unlikely to see a similar popular vote / electoral vote split once again. The race will be highly contested and won not in a landslide, but by a slim majority.

(Unclear if the vote will be manipulated by electoral fraud through security holes in electronic voting machines).

Social Issues:

While the Republicans have won all three branches of government, ironically, they continue to lose the social debate. Gays will continue to gain acceptance in urban society, at least a few more states will enact civil union laws allowing gay "marriages" (guess: Massachusetts and Hawaii, next in list), and drug laws against Marijuana will continue to erode as the drug war will be subsumed by the war against terror.

Terrorism:

Suicide bombing will come to US soil for the first time. It will likely be individuals in jackets targeting shopping malls, public transportation, and/or financial centers, and not car bombs. We won't see a nuclear detonation on US soil, though there is a short possibility of a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India, or a flare up between North and South Korea which could go nuclear.

Civil Rights:

Most, if not all the provisions of the Patriot II act will be passed as riders on individual bills throughout the upcoming year. Expect to see warrantless random searches of cars on interstate highways, warrantless searches of private homes, and further detaining of citizen and noncitizen alike without due process. We may see the first execution by order of military tribunal of "unlawful combatants".

Immigration:

Noting the new Social Security building in downtown Mexico city, expect to see restrictions on immigration from the south slowly lifted in stages until the Mexican border ceases to exist. For '04 I predict that this year the next stage will be a complete amnesty of all illegal immigrants along with easing naturalization policy toward Mexican immigrants.

Technology:

The G5 will make it into a Powerbook, finally. SCO will be forced to either drop their lawsuit or settle on terms to IBM's benefit. Linux will continue as IBM's main strategy against Microsoft. The tech sector will regain profitability, primarily due to increased defense spending. For the competent, tech jobs will become more readily available. (I note that over the last quarter I've received more unsolicited recruiter calls than across the last twelve quarters combined).

Television:

'04 will be the year we all collectively realize that reality TV sucks, and viewership will decline accordingly. Unfortunately, we will see a commensurate increase in stupid sitcoms as a result.

OK, I pulled all that out of my ass. Can you tell? :)

--Maynard


Read The Proxies, a short crime thriller.

i doubt electoral fraud... (none / 1) (#25)
by Work on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 05:51:59 PM EST

but i do predict there will be problems relating to machine failures and overall confusion on how to deal with disputes and it will lead to federal standards legislation regarding how elections are conducted. Who knows, maybe they'll even create a federal election commission to oversee the implementation on a national level...

[ Parent ]
I was gonna say... (none / 1) (#81)
by /dev/trash on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 10:18:59 PM EST

a) The FED will raise interest rates between 25 and 50 basis points before '04 year end.

b) The mortgage refinancing market will die, and due to this the housing market will decline across the board by up to 10% across the US. In certain overpriced urban markets such as Boston, New York, and San Francisco, expect declines as large as 20% - 30%. Mortgage defaults will continue to rise across '04.

Since the interest rates are at all time lows anyway they can ONLY go up.

---
Updated NEW 10/15/2003!!
New Site, More Parks
[ Parent ]

Interest rates held at current level (none / 1) (#84)
by maynard on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 11:03:03 PM EST

The Fed could hold interest rates at the current level for some time. But you're right, they don't have much room to go down unless they want to hit negative interest rates. Bank of Japan did it, but our situation isn't that dire. --M


Read The Proxies, a short crime thriller.
[ Parent ]
With Gerry Mandering (none / 1) (#82)
by JayGarner on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 10:52:24 PM EST

...as the Beaver.

[ Parent ]
2004: Anarchy and Chaos. (2.64 / 14) (#27)
by Psycho Dave on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 08:49:19 PM EST

Iraq:
With the capture of Saddam Hussien, insurgency by Baath party loyalists will begin to decline. But as a US approved Iraqi consitution begins to take shape, expect to see violence from other groups ie. Shiite insurgents, spurred on by Al Qaeda. Politically, the US will find it convenient to begin withdrawing troops by the end of the year, damning the Iraqi people to civil war, anarchy and chaos.

2004 Elections:
Dean vs. Bush. The two will be neck and neck throughout the campaign. The rhetoric will be vicious. The Rove directed smear campaign against Dean will be effective, but Dean will trounce the incumbent in every debate. Expect the election to be nearly a repeat of 2000, with the vote coming down to a few counties in Florida and automatic recounts. Dean will handle the recount situation better than Gore, but Bush will still come out on top in the end. Demonstrations will occur throughout the country protesting the "coup d'etat" Bush has once again perpetrated. Expect anarchy and chaos until the National Guard puts down the protests.

North Korea/Rest of the World:
Late in the year, Kim Jong Il will take his Asian dictator/brinksmanship politics right over the cliff by announcing an active nuc-u-lear weapons program. Intelligence may indicate that the warheads will be ready for deployment within hours, and airstrikes on their facility will occur immediately. The North will retaliate by bombarding Seoul and firing a few cruise missles at Japan, but will stop in order to mass its army at the DMZ. South Korea and the US (backed by the UN, oddly enough) will do the same. Crisis will stop short of full-scale warfare on the Korean peninsula, but already sagging relations between North Korea and the rest of the world will continue to deteriorate.

In the meantime, while the US otherwise has it's hands tied up in other regions, China will begin to clear up it's "rogue province" problem by the conducting raids on Taiwan. World anarchy and chaos to follow.

Economy:
Will see modest gains through out the first two quarters. Jobs will pick up, but not nearly at the pace they were lost. The economy will continue to be a liability to Bush throughout the election to everyone except the ultra-rich who he shamelessly panders to.

More troubling will be the complete collapse of dollar against the Euro. Foriegn investment will flee from US markets. OPEC will begin serious talks about changing the fiat currency of oil to Euro over the dollar. By the end of the year, expect the dollar to be on track to becoming the peso of Western markets. Wall street will be a scene of much anarchy and chaos.

Sports:
Broncos will have an enormous winning streak in the playoffs, carrying them to their third Super Bowl victory (against, I dunno, the Patriots?) Drunken yuppies will start bonfires, break windows, and flip over cars in lower downtown Denver until riot police tear gas the fuckers. Expect to see some asshole with red eyes, nursing a hangover, and complaining to the news that the cops used "excessive force" when they tried to qwell the anarchy and chaos of their celebration.

Entertainment:
Britney Spears will go to rehab. People will still care about Bennifer. People will still be talking about that spoiled cunt Paris Hilton. Christina Aguilera will do some Wendy's ads and put on about thirty pounds. Michael Jackson will go to jail, find Allah, get cornrows, and start lifting weights. The record industry will continue to decline, but don't expect it's collapse until 2005. I will keep wondering why I don't slit my wrists at this whole fiasco we call a cultural "zeitgeist".

The biggest news of the year will involve the Academy Awards. Both Return of the King and Peter Jackson will be nominated, but will lose both awards. An army of geeks, fresh from their parents basements, dressed in their Renaissance faire chain mail and replica swords will promptly swarm the auditorium and slaughter at least half of Hollywood in an orgy of anarchy, blood, and chaos. The qwell the acne scarred rebellion, expect yet another Matrix sequel and the original versions of Star Wars on DVD by the end of the year.

love that...why don't you just kill yourself now? (1.50 / 2) (#76)
by modmans2ndcoming on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:56:52 PM EST

I mean your world view is so bad that you might as well just kill yourself. we are going to blow ourselves up in 2005 if the predictions you made for 04 accelerate.

[ Parent ]
al Qaeda backing Shi'ites? (none / 1) (#177)
by lucius on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 02:36:28 PM EST

Are you drunk? Do you not realise that, as a Wahhabist organisation, al Qaeda hates and fears political Shi'ism above and beyond anything else?

[ Parent ]
Red Sox win world series (1.66 / 6) (#28)
by johnny on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 09:20:23 PM EST

Everything else turns out more or less OK.

yr frn,
jrs
Get your free download of prizewinning novels Acts of the Apostles and Che
You've gotta be kidding me... (none / 3) (#50)
by maynard on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 03:11:56 PM EST

I live in Boston and even I am not so foolish to believe THAT! Give up, the Red Sox are a lost cause... --M


Read The Proxies, a short crime thriller.
[ Parent ]
Oh Maynard! You are such a kidder! (none / 2) (#64)
by polish surprise on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 07:58:12 PM EST

Can you hear the laugher on my end?

--
Controversy is my middle name.
[ Parent ]

roofle. (none / 1) (#80)
by Hide The Hamster on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 10:04:26 PM EST




Free spirits are a liability.

August 8, 2004: "it certainly is" and I had engaged in a homosexual tryst.

[ Parent ]
Don't forget the most important wildcard. (2.00 / 4) (#29)
by tthomas48 on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 09:31:33 PM EST

Remember that Ashcroft recused himself from the CIA leak probe. While this could simply be a Republican doing something moral (which I suppose is theoretically possible), or trying to shift the investigation away from the President in a time of election, it could also be the beginning of an enormous firestorm. If someone like Rumsfeld or Rove is found to have been the source of the leak, I'd imagine we'll see a massive political shift. My prediction is still that this will be THE story of 2004.

Theoretical Republican Morality (2.40 / 5) (#30)
by thelizman on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 10:21:50 PM EST

While this could simply be a Republican doing something moral (which I suppose is theoretically possible)
Theoretically? I pointed out elsewhere that Ashcroft stopped compaigning against Mel Carnahan for a seat in the US Senate because Carnahan was killed late in his campaign in a plane crash. While he showed reverence and respect for his deceased colleague, the Carnahan compaign kept up the slander and mud-slinging. When Carnahan won the seat, the Democratic governer appointed his widow to the Senate seat (perfectly legal, mind you) and she proceeded to tow the party line - something her late husband had more honesty than to do.

We can go back to Ron Brown's funeral, where Democrats slammed Newt Gingrich and the Republicans for being insensitive to Ron Brown's death because they filibustered some Democrat sponsered legislation. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich and the Republican's originated, sponsored, and supported a bill which lent the pedestal that upheld JFK's coffin to be used by Ron Brown.

More often than not, the Republican's do the moral thing while Democrats do the compulsive self-serving thing.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
[ Parent ]
Wow, by the time I finished... (none / 2) (#38)
by FuriousXGeorge on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 07:16:26 AM EST

reading that I almost forgot what we were talking about, O yeah.

"More often than not, the Republican's do the moral thing while Democrats do the compulsive self-serving thing."

Like leaking a CIA agents name for political revenge?  

--
-- FIELDISM NOW!
[ Parent ]

When Did That Happen? (none / 2) (#39)
by thelizman on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 10:37:30 AM EST

I like how you've already solved this investigation. But then, I can go back to the Clinton administration's abuses if you want to play your little games. Can you say "FBI Files of Political Opponants"?
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
[ Parent ]
Tu quoque (none / 3) (#54)
by cyberdruid on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 04:13:03 PM EST

Explain to me what arguing that Democrats are lying scumbags have to do with the question of whether Republicans are lying scumbags? Are the two mutually exclusive?

If the Clinton administration lied, whored to the Fortune 500 and sacrificed cats in satanic rites, does this make it OK for Bush to do so?

I believe this type of fallacy is called a "Tu quoque"-argument. It seems to be a common strategy in american politics.

[ Parent ]

You twist... (none / 1) (#132)
by StewedSquirrels on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 03:00:22 PM EST

Clinton did some Bad Things(TM).

Bush did some Bad Things(TM).

Ashcroft did some Bad Things(TM).

I think you twist things to slant toward your political opinion.  He merely said that Ashcroft did some bad things and that most Republicans have done some bad things...  He never said Democrats did not (at least not what I read).

Frankly, I don't care for many American politicians.  But Extra Frankly(TM), I think Ashcroft is one of the most negative forces in American political circles.  blech.

Stewey

[ Parent ]

CIA agent my ass (none / 1) (#131)
by kurioszyn on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 02:44:32 PM EST

CIA agent ?
You mean that women that was interviewed by Vanity Fair with her photos sitting in her Jaguar ?
Does that sound like a secrect CIA operative to you ?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A29782-2003Dec2&notFound=true


[ Parent ]

Not that this was the point of my comment. (none / 1) (#106)
by tthomas48 on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 09:15:58 AM EST

As I was commenting on my prediction that the leak probe could become a massive problem for the Bush administration, but you've stretched pretty hard to find morality. Ashcroft was going to loose. Was it moral for him to drop out of the race to avoid be trounced? And allowing someone to borrow a pedestal is morality? If this is the best you have to offer the Republican party is probably more immoral than I initially thought. In any case, reading over my initial post I used the wrong word. I meant to say that Ashcroft appeared to be doing the ethical thing (albeit 6 months too late).

[ Parent ]
Please (1.22 / 9) (#32)
by Verbophobe on Wed Dec 31, 2003 at 11:13:04 PM EST

Shut up with the "China == TEH NEXT SUPREPOWER!!1".  It's annoying and has very little basis in reality, if anything.  Plus, you can't even speak Chinese.

Proud member of the Canadian Broadcorping Castration
I'll bet... (none / 2) (#35)
by melia on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 02:27:38 AM EST

..."made in China" is already stamped on half the stuff you own. ni tse pu tan!
Disclaimer: All of the above is probably wrong
[ Parent ]
Well (none / 2) (#40)
by Stickerboy on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 11:40:11 AM EST

Owning the world's largest collection of low-wage, low-tech manufacturing plants is not an indicator of military, political, or even economic power.

[ Parent ]
Good thing (2.75 / 4) (#47)
by cburke on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 02:22:59 PM EST

everyone on earth* is doing their best to help China develop high-tech manufacturing plants, then, isn't it?

China's economic power is self-evident.
China's military power is self-evident.
China's political power is increasingly self-evident.
They're working on the low tech bit, thanks to the rest of the world (and Al Gore :P).

Next superpower?  Maybe, maybe not.  Not in 2004 anyway.

* note to pedants:  not everyone on earth.

[ Parent ]

Well... (none / 1) (#137)
by Verbophobe on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 05:47:09 PM EST

Canada's enconomic power is self-evident.
Canada's political power is self-evident.
Canada's military power is increasingly self-evident.

Hot-damn!  We've got a superpower on our hands, folks!  Haul in the wild speculation.

Proud member of the Canadian Broadcorping Castration
[ Parent ]

it is funny, if tehy were a near super power (none / 2) (#75)
by modmans2ndcoming on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:53:23 PM EST

then why were they considered to have 3rd world status when Kyoto was developed?

I agree with you...it is just silly.

[ Parent ]

predictions (2.60 / 5) (#42)
by mami on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 12:40:28 PM EST

President Bush will have had it - hands over the Presidency to his Vice President Cheney, who is so happy and exited about it that he suffers a heart attack over it.

Speculations are leaked by the Conspiracy trolls, saying "some doctor" might have sabotaged Cheney´s pacemaker to function properly. Anarchy will break out due to the media coverage of this "scandal" and "some general with leadership qualities" will be elected to become Presidentand restore order and integrity.

North and South Korea will reunify, because the general understands that the Koreans might be perfectly capable to solve their problems on their own.

Osama bin Laden will be found - dead. Several  doubles of Osama will be located in Europe and Latin America. Terrorism will continue - mainly in Europe and on US soil. Pakistan will have the first benign dictator, who survives longer than any other of this kind.

Arafat will die, Sharon will retire and the wall will be built on a border agreed by Palestinians and Israeli. Two states will be created and peace will come to both states. The wall will be protected by nukes, guarded by US and Russian armed forces.

War will break out in China and Taiwan. The US takes a hike and doesn´t engage. In Europe war is in the air, it won´t break out before 2005 though. WWIII will occur in 2005 over a dispute completely irrelevant to 98% of the world population.

The economy will be bad, but the problems of depression in the US and in Russia will be solved.
Russia will be able to develop Siberia under Putin and the US will be its best customer. Farmers in the Midwest and Siberia become soul brothers.

Just keeping my 2004 resolution to say something meaningful on K5... :-/.

Developing Siberia. (none / 3) (#44)
by tkatchev on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 12:55:38 PM EST

Uh, it is already well-developed. Better developed, more populous and overall nicer than most "european" parts of Russia.

   -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
[ Parent ]

I think he means resource wise (none / 1) (#74)
by modmans2ndcoming on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:51:54 PM EST

like drilling for oil, getting at the diamonds and gold and other such resources below the ice.

[ Parent ]
It's already developed. (none / 1) (#103)
by tkatchev on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 07:41:23 AM EST

Most of it is already being drilled and mined for resources. The parts that aren't are not economically viable at the moment.

   -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
[ Parent ]

no, I meant it differently (none / 2) (#122)
by mami on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:00:38 PM EST

after having seen a new documentary with recent comments from people in Siberia, who just wish the return of a strong man like Stalin (or at least they don´t mind the loss of democracy and support the strong man Putin without hesitation to bring back law and order), because the average person lives under more hardship than ever before.

Poor Midwesterners in the US and poor Siberians have something in common. Midwesterners can´t handle their hardship without booze and dope and Siberians couldn´t survive and can´t handle their current life without Wodka.

So, in spirit they become "Soul brothers".

I said somewhere before that it is a shame and a pain how few good TV documentations cross over the Atlantic. The good ones of the US don´t reach the Europeans and the good European ones don´t reach the US. All they can is trading their more trashy TV entertainment series, unfortunately.

[ Parent ]

I am also koo-koo for Coca Puffs. (1.75 / 4) (#133)
by Hide The Hamster on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 03:06:55 PM EST




Free spirits are a liability.

August 8, 2004: "it certainly is" and I had engaged in a homosexual tryst.

[ Parent ]
Totally. (none / 1) (#152)
by tkatchev on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 03:57:26 AM EST

Me too.

   -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
[ Parent ]

Excuse me? (none / 3) (#136)
by Cro Magnon on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 04:21:33 PM EST

Poor Midwesterners in the US and poor Siberians have something in common. Midwesterners can´t handle their hardship without booze and dope and Siberians couldn´t survive and can´t handle their current life without Wodka.
I don't pretend to know anything about Siberians, but I DO know something about Midwesterners, since I am one. I handled my hardships just fine WITHOUT booze or dope. Which may explain why I'm no longer a POOR Midwesterner.
Information wants to be beer.
[ Parent ]
well, fellow comrade, you are not the only one, (none / 2) (#160)
by mami on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 08:41:57 AM EST

who should try some Vodka before you start reading K5, because as my Siberian countrymen  know so well, with Vodka you can survive Communism (actually you can win over Communism with Vodka), so I am sure you will be able to survive K5, especially mami´s comments, if you just tried a little harder.

Prost! To Siberian-Midwesterner Brotherhood!


[ Parent ]

Yeah. (1.50 / 4) (#46)
by Hide The Hamster on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 01:59:49 PM EST

Just keeping my 2004 resolution to say something meaningful on K5... :-/.

You just broke that resolution. Everything just proposed is insane, worthless and ridiculous.


Free spirits are a liability.

August 8, 2004: "it certainly is" and I had engaged in a homosexual tryst.

[ Parent ]
bravo, you got it ... (nt) (none / 1) (#119)
by mami on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 12:52:31 PM EST



[ Parent ]
do you live in the US? (2.50 / 4) (#73)
by modmans2ndcoming on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:50:01 PM EST

in the event the President dies or leaves, and the vice president dies or leaves before he can appoint a successor, the speaker of the house becomes president.

why would a general take over? oh I get it .... because you are a liberal freak who thinks our democracy is about to be usurped by a military dictatorship and you need to come up with some sort of mechanism for that to happen ... unfortunately for you, you are under educated about our political system and failed to realize there is a well defined order of succession in the constitution and have made yourself look like the fool you are.

[ Parent ]

hmm, are you sure YOU live in the US? (none / 2) (#118)
by mami on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 12:51:21 PM EST

apparently you overlooked that the only general, who is running for President, is a rather "liberal freak"-style general, who thinks your beloved democracy is that good that it doesn´t deserve to be usurped by a pseudo-military civilian, who dreams of chasing all the dictatorships there are in the world.

May be YOU need to come up with some sort of mechanism that helps you to not fall in your own traps of prejuidices against perceived undereducated liberal freaks that sound foreign to your ears.

[ Parent ]

if Bush is reelected, his administration (none / 2) (#128)
by modmans2ndcoming on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 02:08:44 PM EST

does not end just because he and the vice president are gone.

there is no special election, so Dennis hastert would be placed in as president for the remainder of term.

perhaps you should stop speaking since you make yourself sound even more stupid.

[ Parent ]

I think I fit in well on K5 sounding stupid (nt) (none / 2) (#158)
by mami on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 08:30:40 AM EST



[ Parent ]
War in Europe? (none / 0) (#184)
by Kuranes on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 05:06:58 PM EST

and who against whom? I'm just hoping that Austria isn't involved because our military is crap.

Please inform me. ;-)


------------------------------------------
The Church of Fear says: HAVE FEAR!
[ Parent ]
Osama bin Laden death. (2.00 / 4) (#48)
by dasunt on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 02:31:46 PM EST

Here's a nice dark-horse prediction for 2004.

Instead of Osama being captured or evading capture, he'll died of natural causes sometime during 2004, perhaps due to kidney failure.



His body will be found in Omaha, Nebraska (2.40 / 5) (#53)
by cburke on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 03:48:57 PM EST

in an apartment rented under the name Al K. Dah.

[ Parent ]
Ha! Very Funny! (nt) (none / 0) (#183)
by Kuranes on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 04:31:36 PM EST




------------------------------------------
The Church of Fear says: HAVE FEAR!
[ Parent ]
2004 (1.00 / 4) (#49)
by NaCh0 on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 02:56:41 PM EST

Bush WINS!

Tells liberals of the world to suck it.

--
K5: Your daily dose of socialism.

Actually (none / 2) (#52)
by DominantParadigm on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 03:48:53 PM EST

Liberals of the world hope he'll win and deep-six the American economy. Liberals of America can suck it down for all I care though, the brain-damaged simpletons.

Caller:So you're advocating bombing innocent children? Howard Stern:Yes, of course!


[ Parent ]
-1, doesn't mention Tom Petty (2.00 / 7) (#51)
by kitten on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 03:22:53 PM EST

I believe I speak for everyone here.
mirrorshades radio - darkwave, synthpop, industrial, futurepop.
Then your delusions are getting worse [nt] (1.50 / 4) (#55)
by Stick on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 04:33:33 PM EST




---
Stick, thine posts bring light to mine eyes, tingles to my loins. Yea, each moment I sit, my monitor before me, waiting, yearning, needing your prose to make the moment complete. - Joh3n
[ Parent ]
Alright, about Tom Petty (1.20 / 5) (#56)
by Hide The Hamster on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 04:55:37 PM EST

Let's get something straight. The sound of me taking a gassy loose shit on a tabletop is more pleasing to the ear than Tom Petty's nasal bitch voice.


Free spirits are a liability.

August 8, 2004: "it certainly is" and I had engaged in a homosexual tryst.

[ Parent ]
another crystal ball (2.66 / 6) (#57)
by adiffer on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 05:01:37 PM EST

Predictions from last year and comments followed by predictions for next year:

1.  There will be a short shooting war in Iraq involving ground forces before someone shoots their leader.  The war will end promptly with Iraq being given a chance to organize a new government under a few watchful eyes.

Not quite.  There was a war, but it has turned into an occupation.  All involved were more stubborn than I thought they would be.

2.  Many more people will be blown up and shot in Israel.  No progress will be made, though many people will continue to scream at one another.

Pretty close.  Carter's friends have a peace proposal out there that I wasn't expecting.  I hope it gains traction, but I won't hold my breath.

3.  The major US stock markets will experience a moderate broad-based gain by the end of the year, but things will remain volatile and flat through late Spring.

They did quite a bit better than I expected, but the switch over was about the way I expected.

4.  The US unemployment rate will flatten out by mid-year and then move slightly down by the Winter.

Close enough for government work.

5.  Many more people in North Korea will continue to go hungry and live a stone-age life style.  Some Americans will realize their people might be better off if China were to annex the region.

Irrelevant.  The people who should be worrying about North Korea are doing a fair job and have resources to perform their tasks.

6.  The Sacramento Kings will take the NBA championship through good play and good acting.

Oh well.  It was a good show anyway.

7.  A US private company will try to crash land something on the Moon and make money doing it.  The vehicle will actually be flown instead of being yet another drawing board fiction.

Finance access put a stop to this once again.

8.  China will join the modern age when they send people into orbit and recover them safely.

Right on the money.

9.  College football fans in the US will say 'Huh?  Which game is which?' and some bowl game organizers will move to put their traditional bowl game name back up front to where the fans can see it.

Who cares?

10.  By the end of the year, the next target of the US war on terrorism will be apparent.  It will be a former ally.

I was in a pessimistic mood when I wrote this one.  I'm glad it didn't work out that way.

---

  1.  Iraq will continue to be occupied by US and British forces for the whole of 2004.  Bombs will be blown up killing the occupation forces on a fairly steady basis.  Those same bombs will probably kill more Iraqis, though, than occupiers.  It will also be apparent that the 'softest' targets are the Iraqis themselves.
  2.  Many more people will be blown up and shot in Israel.  No progress will be made, though many people will continue to scream at one another.
  3.  The major US stockmarkets will move upwards about 12% with the NASDAQ proving the exception by growing about 25%.  The NYSE will make moves toward automation that removes human specialists, but the solution probably won't be a complete removal of human interests in that middle layer of stock transactions.
  4.  The US unemployment index will trend downward and finish the year around 5.5%.  Other economic indicators will show parts of the US economy growing at around 4% per year on average.  
  5.  The low cost equipment sellers (pc's, printers, home entertainment, smart appliances) will take more market share away from other retailers in the tech markets by making more and more use of regulatory trade liberalizations among the world's nations.
  6.  Election politics in the US will put a halt to overt trade liberalizations and free trade pacts, but such discussions will continue under wraps because some will see the anticorrelation between economic success and being a target in the War on Terror.
  7.  Someone will win the X-Prize.  This will probably happen in the third quarter of the year.
  8.  The US Federal Government will continue to try to shut down sport and amateur rocketry hobbies persued by its citizens.  The approach will be to scare Congress into enacting stifling rules regarding access to propellants.  The hobbyists will fight back in Court.  Commercial providers of propellants, though, won't be able to remain viable and will probably all go under.
  9.  The US will continue to apply pressure to nations on its 'Evil Axis' list to get reforms, but no new wars will be started as a result of this effort.
  10.  A record amount of money will be spent in support of the US elections.  No third party candidate will make a dent in the Presidential election results.  If Howard Dean is nominated by the Democrats, he will loose and the election won't be close.
Bonus:  California State level elections will demonstrate the populace is annoyed at their legislators too.
-Dream Big. --Grow Up.
Don't feel too bad about #10 (none / 2) (#60)
by DominantParadigm on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 06:46:12 PM EST

You were right on the money

10. By the end of the year, the next target of the US war on terrorism will be apparent. It will be a former ally.

Iraq, baby. Iraq. That former ally was trying to kick some Aryan (Iranian) ass and the Americans were damned glad and throwing money and guns at them don't yah know.



Caller:So you're advocating bombing innocent children? Howard Stern:Yes, of course!


[ Parent ]
politics of the cold war, no ideological basis (none / 2) (#71)
by modmans2ndcoming on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:45:01 PM EST

for the partnership.

[ Parent ]
politics in general, never an ideological basis (none / 0) (#176)
by lucius on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 02:20:39 PM EST

see Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (1979)

[ Parent ]
I know what you mean (none / 1) (#98)
by adiffer on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 03:20:14 AM EST

but that isn't what I was thinking about.  My original thought involved Pakistan.  It could still happen if their current leader fails to maintain his powerbase.  If he looses and the next regime is hostile relative to us (and friendly to Bin Laden's people, they will probably discover that we are willing to take on a nuclear nation.  The stakes are high enough.  

That would scare the piss out of a lot of people around the world.  That is why I am happy it hasn't happened.
-Dream Big. --Grow Up.
[ Parent ]

Bow to your lord. (1.50 / 6) (#58)
by readpunk on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 05:30:49 PM EST

Sauron, the dark lord will rise again. Give thanks to his greatness for he will rid the earth of the light (GWB) and cover this planet in darkness.

./revolution
don't bet on it (2.25 / 4) (#61)
by Lord Sauron on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 06:53:58 PM EST

I made a New Year's Resolution to be nicer in 2004, and spreading darkness has gotten old anyway. I was thinking I'd settle for helping a new wretched boy band to hit the scenes in 2004.
Have you seen my ring?
[ Parent ]
Fail me now... (none / 0) (#223)
by readpunk on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 10:42:35 PM EST

If you fail now, Saruman shall rule. My allegiance belongs with you, dark lord. Do not tempt me to allow my soul to be marshalled by the wizard.

./revolution
[ Parent ]
What about Parmalat (2.80 / 5) (#59)
by Deus Horribilus on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 06:00:18 PM EST

Sorry, jjayson was wrong about no accounting scandals. Just type Parmalat into Google news to see what was up in Europe around December.

Seriously, you Americans have to realise there is a world outside your borders (that isn't Canada or Mexico or Iraq).

By the way, my prediction: Armageddon. (Yeah, I make it every year, but I still keep on hoping...)

_________________________________________
"Beliefs are never concrete, they change direction like autumn leaves in a windstorm..."

Good point (none / 0) (#66)
by jayhawk88 on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:07:16 PM EST

But I'm pretty sure jjayson was predicting American-based accounting scandals, given that they were the hot news at the time.

Why, then, should we grant government the Orwellian capability to listen at will and in real time to our communications across the Web? -- John Ashcroft
[ Parent ]
predictions (2.25 / 4) (#62)
by just8 on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 07:41:03 PM EST

Middle East: Bombings and insurgency continue in Iraq. Faction squabbling slows start of Iraqi self-rule. Israel-Palestine conflict worsens and moves to separation.

Economy: Chinese economy grows at over 8% again. US stock market regresses in 2nd half of 2004 due to declines in: housing (as mortgage rates go up), travel (with continued decline in air travel), manufacturing (continued de-industrialization and job flight), and service (white color jobs also leave for developing countries) industries. Unemployment creeps up.

2004 Elections: Green presence in the EU parliament increases from 45 to over 50 parliamentarians. Dean continues to rally support through Internet and from big donors like Soros. Due to worsening US domestic and foreign policy problems for Bush, Dean wins in a squeaker. On environmental platforms, more greens win local elections in US.

Technology: Net telephony through voice-over-Internet protocol hits mainstream. Business use expands of office document-editing palmtops integrated with 3G phones, which begin to replace laptops as portable computing platform of choice. Linux desktops begin to find a market. Nanotech research promises to push Moore's law into 2020s. Human cloning for profit company with substantiated results starts commercial baby making operations.

Media: Music industry renegotiates royalties, leading to expanded use of download sites. More US FCC deregulations rolled back by congress. Satellite TV rates are cut. Offerings expanded to include more international news and porn options (sometimes on same show).

Education: Building on their existing financial education efforts online, Citigroup purchases a college campus and founds Citigroup University, CU. Partly modeled on University of Phoenix, CU offers online business and finance college degree and nondegree programs to Citigroup employees and tuition paying students (and customers). The curricula are modeled on MIT's open courseware program, open and online.

Food: Additional mad cow disease cases are discovered in US. In reaction and through growth of the US anti-GMO movement, a new health craze takes off in US. Soy products go mainstream. Restaurants begin to carry more soy and vegetarian food selections.

Sports: Three Big East basketball teams (including the new expansion teams) make it to the final four in NCAA March madness - one Big East team wins. Due to split championship again in the college football Bowl Championship Series, Negotiations to revise BCS result in a playoff plan. Chicago Cubs make World Series and lose to Yankees. With coach Jauron and offensive coordinator Shoop replaced, Chicago Bears make playoffs and lose in first round. A new psychological disorder is discovered in Chicago in early 2005: eu-phobia, fear of happiness (and Europe).


you are one delusional fellow :-) (1.50 / 2) (#70)
by modmans2ndcoming on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:40:12 PM EST

I was laughing pretty hard reading your predictions.

[ Parent ]
White COLLAR (none / 1) (#170)
by flaw on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 09:51:51 PM EST

Fool.

--
ピニス, ピニス, everyone loves ピニス!
[ Parent ]
My predictions: (2.83 / 12) (#63)
by Kasreyn on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 07:46:01 PM EST

Iraq: Will continue to be used as a smokescreen to hide domestic abuses of the administration. The longer the news herd harp on American boys coming home in boxes, the longer no one will hear about the Bushes' rich cronies raping America's economy right here at home. J. Paul Bremer and his goons will coerce the Iraqis into "freely" electing another batch of U.S. puppets into power, thus resentment will continue to simmer and the bombings in Iraq will continue unabated.

Saddam: will be given a kangaroo trial and executed. There will be no international buy-in to this process.

OBL: Will never be "found". He probably was reduced to a red smear by one of our daisy-cutters back in the Afghanistan conflict. Happily, the government will be able to trot him out, Snowball-esque, as a boogeyman for many years to come.

2004 elections: A combination of apathy, stupidity, and Diebold voting machine fraud will put Pres. Cheney back in the White House. Dean might protest with a little more spine than Gore did, which might make it more interesting. Democrats will prepare for Hillary 08, Republicans for Jeb 08.

N. Korea: Will continue to be a major threat. I hate to say the Republicans are right, but any time you have a nuclear power whose citizens literally believe the leader is a living god, you've got trouble with a capital T that rhymes with B that stands for bomb.

Economy: Will continue to suffer Bush-itis. Naturally, no one will notice why.

Tech: The lack of more anti-competetive software from Redmond will make a good year for OSes. The tight economy will slay another handful of Linux companies. Same old same old. iPods will be a hot item, agreed. My girlfriend would like me to also add her prediction that basic package computers, perhaps Wal-Mart brand, will get under the $300 mark.

Sports: A big bunch of heavily muscled guys will beat up another such bunch and win a trophy. This will happen in several sports. I'M RIGHT.

Entertainment: The Oscars will be a drink of bile, as always. Best Original Soundtrack will, also as always, be given as a consolation prize to whatever movie was 2nd favorite for Best Picture, even if its score was retracked heavy metal.

Internet: AOL/Time Warner and other such companies will continue to buy out more stuff. Places to speak freely in any anti-corporate or politically incorrect way will become ever more rare, as lawsuits continue to fly and hosting companies become more cautious. There will be at least one over-hyped "virus" (read: worm) which will afflict yet another security flaw in Windows, which will cause yet another panic.

Other stuff: There will be at least one overhyped school shooting, with the media conveniently ignoring the fact that more American schoolchildren are slain by lightning than by school shootings; there will be at least one completely ludicrous lawsuit of the "million dollar coffee spill" type; there will be television footage of the same damn idiots as last time having their homes swept away by the Mississippi or Missouri rivers; there will be yet more architectural monstrosities called "Freedom"; and John Ashcroft will salute the little statue of Hitler he keeps in his bedroom at least 1100 times.


-Kasreyn


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
PARENT CONTAINS SPOILER! (1.16 / 6) (#65)
by jim10101 on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 07:59:00 PM EST

The parent is a troll - the second-last
para has a spoiler for LoTR RoTK.

[ Parent ]
Wow, fp (1.40 / 5) (#67)
by jayhawk88 on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:09:41 PM EST

That's a first for me. BTW, sorry about the errors in the second paragraph. It was pretty slow around here Wednesday, I hadn't gotten any edit comments in a while; guess I pulled the trigger a little quick. If some kind editor would be nice enough to correct my horrible grammer/linking skills, it would be nice.

Why, then, should we grant government the Orwellian capability to listen at will and in real time to our communications across the Web? -- John Ashcroft
My predictions (2.25 / 4) (#68)
by strlen on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:33:13 PM EST

There will be a reducement of troops in Iraq by the end of the year, and preparations for an election.

Nothing will change in regards to North Korea.

There's going to be economic growth for at least the first half of the year, and there may be a growth of jobs in Sillicon Valley.

Arafat will have to get a new job (I suggest McDonalds or Burger King, both are readily available).

SCO will continue to be asshats.

AMD will grow to market dominance with their 64-bit products, while Intel will try to push Ia-64 using through HPaq (by offering a phase out program for Alpha/Tru64 customers getting them to switch to IA64/HP[silent S]UX). Sun may be able to make some achivements with Opteron/Solaris-AMD64 based products, enough to keep it afloat.

More corporate users will be turning to Linux/Java Desktop/OS X as Microsoft will begin taking their customers for granted, and tormenting them with expensive software upgrades that will also entail hardware upgrades. You'll see a major increase in Linux desktops at corporations (not for the end user, thoughs) and universities as earlier desktop systems will be getting increasingly slower and slower in respect to demands of Microsoft software.

The popular backslash agaisnt outsourcing will see the return of more call centers to the US, and companies will be able to play "we do not outsource" card in securing government contracts and consumer confidence.

FreeBSD will slowly begin to invade Linux server market, as SCO's asshattery and RedHat's decision to drop non-enterprise version of their Linux product (and the incredible suckage of Redhat's Enterprise products) will drive customers away from Linux. Expect to see a major hardware vendor (Dell?) sell BSD-ready servers sometime this year.

There will be a massive backlash against blogging, and most importantly "the blogosphere" and other forms of related navel-gazing and meta-wankery.

Oh, and some meta wankery for you: Baldrson, upon finding correlation between HimTrollingUseNetAndK5ForOverADecade and EveryoneElseThinkingHeIsAnIdiot, will convert to Orthodox Judaism, grow a beard, will have a bris (performed by tiger) , move to Israel, and join Mossad (along side psychologist who's long been a member of it).


--
[T]he strongest man in the world is he who stands most alone. - Henrik Ibsen.

nice mixed bag (1.75 / 4) (#69)
by modmans2ndcoming on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:36:45 PM EST

so basicly, you have a view of reality that is skewed by your politics...it can't be too good because then your political views will be dashed.

-Iraq will have a constitution and begin to rule itself by the end of the summer.

-bush will win more than 50% of the popular vote

-the economy will be in full recovery and I suspect the only blemish will be that the job losses will not totally be made up though they will be very close relative to the over all Job market. stagnation is not happening now and it will no be happening in 2004.

-ROTK will win best picture and best director. revolutions will win best special effects Nicole kidman will win best actress.

-Iran will go nuclear and international pressure will come down hard on them and a security council consensus will be reached in regards to Iran since there is little political entanglement with them from our friends in Europe as there was in Iraq, however we will push hard for diplomacy. Israel will bomb the Nuclear sites and financial pressure will come in the form of locking down assets that make their way to terror groups in Syria and Palestine.

hmmm (none / 1) (#93)
by rankor on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:14:10 AM EST

Pot, Kettle.
Kettle, this is Pot.

[ Parent ]
hardly, I voted for gore and will be voting Dean (none / 2) (#108)
by modmans2ndcoming on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 10:17:27 AM EST

but I have a SOLID VIEW OF REALITY.

[ Parent ]
Revolutions Won't Win (none / 2) (#117)
by spamtastique on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 12:45:46 PM EST

It's not even in the bake-off, which means it can't be nominated.

Source :

http://www.ilmfan.com/main/index.php?module=announce&ANN_user_op=view&AN N_id=781

[ Parent ]

Regarding Iran's allies: (none / 1) (#175)
by lucius on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 02:13:40 PM EST

Iran has more friends than you might suppose, their nuclear program is in large part run by CIS personnel (Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians mostly, a number of whom I have met), and Putin has in the past made veiled references to some kind of understanding between Russia and Iran (something short of an actual alliance).
Germany, being one of Iran's major trading partners, is also a close friend.

The isolation that the US media seems to talk about so often is only really an isolation from the US, and thus the Iranian situation is very different from the one Iraq found itself in. US pressure on Iran would probably be in a form more reminiscent of that on North Korea than that on Iraq, and not because of some putative nuclear capability, but because of the interests of other concerned parties in the region.


[ Parent ]

I very much doubt the constitution thing (nt) (none / 0) (#182)
by Kuranes on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 04:27:06 PM EST




------------------------------------------
The Church of Fear says: HAVE FEAR!
[ Parent ]
My darkest fantasies (2.62 / 8) (#72)
by Estanislao Martínez on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 08:47:42 PM EST

  1. The Saddam trial is cynically organized so as to serve as what, at the moment, will look like a government-paid propaganda for Bush's reelection.
  2. In the end it really isn't reelection propaganda, because TEH TERRORISTS (all too conveniently) attack the US around election time with simultaneous dirty bombs nationwide, prompting martial rule, and indefinite cancellation of the election.
  3. The US invades Trinidad and Tobago in December. Hey, they've got oil, they've got Muslims, and guess who they're right next to? That's right, Venezuela.
Ok, I only really believe #1.

--em

MUSLIM 5.8% (none / 2) (#85)
by ti dave on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 11:08:44 PM EST

THEY HAVE FOUR TIMES THAT MANY HINDU. WHAT A RIDICULOUS JUSTIFICATION.
"If you dial," Iran said, eyes open and watching, "for greater venom, then I'll dial the same."

[ Parent ]
Well (none / 2) (#111)
by greenrd on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 10:55:57 AM EST

A shortage of actual, living breathing Communist Agitators never stopped the US during the Cold War...


"Capitalism is the absurd belief that the worst of men, for the worst of reasons, will somehow work for the benefit of us all." -- John Maynard Keynes
[ Parent ]

THE COLD WAR IS OVER... (none / 1) (#124)
by ti dave on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:10:43 PM EST

SO NOW WE OUGHT TO LOCATE ACTUAL, LIVING & BREATHING ISLAMO-MARXIST AGITATORS BEFORE WE ACT UNI-LATERALLY.
"If you dial," Iran said, eyes open and watching, "for greater venom, then I'll dial the same."

[ Parent ]
Woah.... (none / 1) (#129)
by StewedSquirrels on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 02:18:42 PM EST

Hello there Mr. All Caps.

1)  He was making a joke

2)  He was playing on a farce of the current administration to make blanket, somewhat untrue statements

3)  He was making fun of the concept of racial profiling

4)  He was subtly criticizing such action.

You, sir, seem to have lost most of the subtle connotation of what he wrote.

Stewey

[ Parent ]

sheesh. (none / 1) (#143)
by /dev/trash on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 09:02:12 PM EST

What is with people who think that come Nov. 2004 if Bush is seen to lose he launches a coup and we have him forever?  The closest in recent history we were to martial law was when OPEC cut off our oil.

---
Updated NEW 10/15/2003!!
New Site, More Parks
[ Parent ]
Israel/Palestine (2.25 / 4) (#78)
by jonnyd on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 09:32:34 PM EST

There will be a sudden shift to the left in the thinking of many Israeli political leaders with regard to the Palestinian situation. This shift will be widely supported in the Israeli populous everywhere except for in the settlements on the West Bank (and Gaza...) where it will be opposed strongly. This will not be enough to overcome the wave of support to seed all of the West Bank and Gaza strip to the newly formed Palestinian state. Peace will come to the area, but it will be short lived - other squable points between Israelis and Palestinians will come to the surface degrading security of Israel once again.
JD
Cede, not seed. (none / 3) (#104)
by salsaman on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 07:45:28 AM EST

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=cede

[ Parent ]
My Predictions (2.75 / 8) (#79)
by spakatak on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 09:54:01 PM EST

Something, Somewhere will happen. Being a slow news day, CNN will latch onto the story and run it as breaking news. "Experts" will come on to tell us all that Something happened because it happened, and something might happen again.

Something happens again a week later, and although it happens pretty much every week, it is now a hot news Item. All the major networks will run it as breaking news and more experts will tell us it is now time to run around screaming in fear that the world is about to end.

A week later, everyone forgets about something. CNN has a slow news day, and something else happens. Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

My prediction (1.37 / 8) (#83)
by JayGarner on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 10:56:00 PM EST

Nobody will bother to read more than one or two lines into any of you sorry jokers' longwinded, malinformed predictions.

I'll bite (2.25 / 4) (#86)
by pyramid termite on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 11:20:31 PM EST

Election 2004 - Bush wins, but not by an overwhelming margin. Republicans make gains in both houses of Congress.

Iraq - Baathest insugency declines, but the country is not much more stable due to Shi'ite non-cooperation with the occupation forces. Basically, the ultimate outcome depends on what the Shi'ites decide to do, and they probably won't decide this year.

Economy - improves at a slow pace - domestically good, but the dollar continues a slow decline and foreign investment continues to flee. Not bad, but not especially good.

The social and political divisions in this country continue to sharpen.

Osama remains a mystery. North Korea continues to sabre rattle, but doesn't do anything. China continues to verbally bully Taiwan but doesn't do anything. The European economy will continue to stumble. The Middle East will continue to be a bloody mess, but there will be no real escalation.

Many rumors of terrorist acts, very few terrorist acts, and no major ones in the US.

An increasing feeling that the world is heading towards a crisis period. However, that crisis period will not be for 2 or 3 years, at least.

WILD CARDS - things that could make much of the above not that important, but aren't likely to happen, with guesses as to how likely they are -

A scandal involving the Bush Administration (5%)
A major terrorist act on US soil(15%)
India and Pakistan go to war(10%)
North Korea invades and/or fights South Korea(10%)
A stock market crash or disasterous decline in the dollar(20%)
A sudden and drastic escalation in the Middle East(10%)
Revolution in Saudi Arabia(15%)
Violent Shi'ite rebellion in Iraq(15%)
Civil war in China(5%)
Something none of us are smart enough to predict that will change everything(10%)

My figures are probably screwed, but I think the likelyhood of any one of these events happening in 2004 would be less than 25%. Odds are, we'll get a pass this year.

By 2008, I don't think we'll be that fortunate.

On the Internet, anyone can accuse you of being a dog.
minor point (2.71 / 7) (#94)
by Terren on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:15:51 AM EST

Assuming all the "wild card" events you've listed are independant, given your estimates of their likelihood, the chance of at least one of them happening is actually 70.9%. Probably need to lower the estimates for each event.

Of course, it could be argued that the wild cards are not truly independant, in which case the chance of at least one of them happening this year would be lower than 70.9%. For example, a revolution in Saudia Arabia or a Shi'ite revolution would both tend to cause a sudden and drastic escalation in the Middle East. For these events to be truly independent, you'd have to define a "sudden and drastic escalation in the Middle East" in terms of an event that doesn't involve either a revolution in Saudia Arabia or a Shi'ite revolution.



[ Parent ]
rest of world (2.25 / 4) (#87)
by mikpos on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 11:21:35 PM EST

I haven't seen much talk of "the rest of the world" when nuclear weapons and suicide bombings aren't involved. Africa and Afghanistan look terribly important to me.

I've heard predictions for a couple of years now that Ethiopia is heading for its worst famine since the 1980s. It could happen. If not, it's only a matter of time before HIV gets them anyway. If the UN had any passion at all, Mugabe would get his ass smashed in this year. As that seems unlikely, humanity's only hope for salvation is for numerous oil deposits to be found under sub-Saharan Africa (also unlikely). Zaire, or the People's Democratic Republic of the Populist Congo or whatever it's called now, might again witness mass homicide and be promptly ignored.

Overall Africa prediction: everyone keeps dying.

As for Afghanistan, the new highway seems to offer much in the way of security outside of Kabul. The provincial reconstruction teams are getting set up as well. For all I know, the last year has been the most peaceful time in Afghanistan's history since like forever. Afghanistan's future has implications for Pakistan and opium as well.

Overall Afghanistan prediction: yay.

Also, WTF is up with France? Are they all on glue there? Yeah, let's start banning stuff because it's "overt" or "conspicuous". Good plan.

Overall France prediction: major export continues to be whine.

Indeed (none / 3) (#112)
by jmzero on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 11:29:27 AM EST

And if Africa sees another famine, we're going to see another Band-Aid.  Imagine a Band-Aid with Creed, Googloo Dolls, and Enrique Iglesias.  

I don't want to live in that kind of world, and neither do African children.  Let's put an end to hunger now, before it's too late.  
.
"Let's not stir that bag of worms." - my lovely wife
[ Parent ]

Overall Africa prediction: everyone keeps dying (none / 1) (#157)
by mami on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 08:18:28 AM EST

you forget and underestimate the strength of African women soldiers ... they will fight, rest assured.

[ Parent ]
Yes (none / 0) (#242)
by Cackmobile on Tue Jan 13, 2004 at 11:24:05 AM EST

Your prediction about Africa is the only one on this article which will definately come true and is definately the saddest. No oil in Africa (except Nigeria and they are sorted)

[ Parent ]
My Prediction (2.66 / 6) (#88)
by bloodnok on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 11:39:17 PM EST

Apathy will continue to gain ground as the personal guiding philosophy of choice, until a wave of Ohcrapwhathashappenedism takes over around 2008.

Violence continues in the Middle East until there are 2 people left: One in Israel, the other in Iran. There is talk of a peace treaty, maybe before 2010.

Survivor: Antarctica screens during the 2004 US Election. Bush wins a second term by a narrow 7-6 majority.

Happy New Year everyone!

I assume you are being facetius about the election (2.25 / 4) (#92)
by modmans2ndcoming on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:07:40 AM EST

and the 7-6 majority refers to the supreme court....it would have been funnier if perhaps you had gotten the numbers correct.

there are 9 members on the supreme court. so a narrow majority would be 5 - 4.

[ Parent ]

I assume he's being overly negative. (none / 1) (#140)
by istewart on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 07:09:11 PM EST

I think he means that Bush will win the popular vote with a total of 13 people voting in the general election.

[ Parent ]
Supreme Court (none / 0) (#185)
by bloodnok on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 05:56:26 PM EST

No, I was meaning a 7-6 majority of voters, the rest were watching Survivor :) - bloodnok
--- When you give up freedom for security you get neither.
[ Parent ]
My Predictions (2.25 / 4) (#89)
by Stickerboy on Thu Jan 01, 2004 at 11:42:08 PM EST

US Politics: I predict that Howard Dean wins the Democratic nomination in a contested race. Dean then runs a largely negative campaign against George Bush, is outspent on media airtime 5 to 1 by the Republicans, and loses by 10 percentage points in the popular election when Bush is able to present a unified Republican voting bloc, whereas a substantial percentage of Democrats will not show up, disgusted by the Democratic infighting, the inability to come up with a unified party platform, and Dean's anti-Clinton, anti-Clark rhetoric during the primary.

US Economy: I predict that jobs will rebound into the six digit creation figure, as they have always and always will be a lagging indicator of how the economy is doing. Growth in GDP and the securities markets will continue at a steady pace, if slower than the great 8.2% it grew in the 3rd quarter of 2003. The continuing upturn in the economy will be a major reason Bush is reelected.

Iraq: I predict that the Shia community, with the decline of the influence of Moqtada Sadr, will be content (relatively speaking) with the fact that the US is unopposed to the political rise to power of the Shia majority and refuse to turn against the coalition. The Kurdish community will get semi-autonomy in a federal Iraq, and will be more than happy with a slice of the oil revenues being generated by the country. The Sunni community will feel even more isolation after the capture of Saddam Hussein, and the failure of any single Sunni group or figure to come to legitimately represent and express the wishes and concerns of the Sunni population at large. While the resistance will grow more fragmented and less effective due to the coalition gaining ground in capturing the financial resources, weapons caches, and leadership figures behind the resistance, attacks will continue against the new Iraqi government even after the coalition military forces leave. This will occur because a large part of the insurgency is fueled for no better reason than the fact that the Sunnis lost the power to dominate (and profit from) the other segments of Iraqi society with the toppling of Saddam Hussein's government, and nothing about a Shia dominated Iraq will change that.

As for the coalition, I predict that US losses will taper off as US forces turn over more of the day-to-day security to Iraqis, and withdraw to secure bases a la Camp Bondsteel in the former Yugoslavia, where they can act as a rapid reaction force to supplement Iraqi security forces and serve as a guarantor against civil war. The final toll will be approximately 600 US soldiers killed in theater, with 400 of those being combat deaths. US and other coalition forces will be in Iraq throughout next year.

Iran:I predict that events from last year, beginning with the arrest and disarmament of Iranian resistance groups in Iraq by the coalition and the latest being the US humanitarian aid sent to Iran, will lead to a general detente between the US and Iran. The first official meetings between American and Iranian government officials will take place sometime this year, although nothing significant will come about it other than the fact that the two countries will be finally willing to talk to one another. The US will be happy that Iran seems content to have a Shia dominated Iraq as a neighbor, and is willing to dismantle its nascent nuclear weapons program for trade and energy benefits. Iran will be happy that the US doesn't seem intent on an invasion to topple the theocratic oligarchy, and is willing to let the Shia community lead in Iraq as opposed to settling for yet another Sunni strongman.

North Korea: I predict that China will put the screws on the North Koreans to settle diplomatically this year in exchange for the US' recent hard line on Taiwanese independence. Negotiations will begin this year in which North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons and programs in order to prevent China from turning off the lights and the food supply, and the US and other Asian countries will give the idiocracy in North Korea billions in food, fuel, and economic development guarantees in return. The US will formally pledge, but not sign a treaty, to not attack the North Korean government without provocation unless it restarts its nuclear weapons programs.

China: I predict that due to a convergence on Taiwan, terrorism and North Korea, not to mention the billions in trade between the two countries, relations between China and the US will be at an all-time high this year.

US: I predict that the US will plan to add another two active divisions to the Army and delay the decommissioning of an aircraft carrier in order to increase its force reserve and reduce the strain on its already-deployed fighting forces.

Much will be made of a new American Empire, which will be all hot air as people around the world begin to realize yet again that the Attention Deficit Disorder common to American foreign policy precludes any sort of lasting military empire. (We're all too busy making business and trade deals, and a real empire costs too much money to maintain.) Global hegemony exerted by US power, however, will continue unabated as it has since the end of the Cold War.

China, North Korea,Taiwan (none / 1) (#105)
by wiredog on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 08:11:46 AM EST

That's pretty much what I've been thinking. China is becoming a superpower, at least economically, and the last thing they want is a war, possibly nuclear, on their southern border. Especially since some of their seaborne trade routes run near there.

Taiwan is going to be interesting. For several years to come. Recent polls indicate that the people of Taiwan don't consider themselves Chinese and, in fact, consider Taiwan to be an independent country. China (and the US) officially oppose this. But the US has a longstanding (verbal/tacit) commitment to preserve Taiwan's independence. China doesn't have the capability to sucessfully invade Taiwan, and Taiwan is a country that can probably have nukes anytime it wants. Will the Chinese hardliners win out and force the issue? Or will the pragmatists in Beijing win out and support a slow evolution from de facto to de jure independence for Taiwan?

Wilford Brimley scares my chickens.
Phil the Canuck

[ Parent ]

China doesn't have the capability to sucessfully ? (none / 1) (#123)
by mami on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:08:20 PM EST

Is that true? Why not? Taiwan can have nukes anyitme it wants? Do you think the US would stand by and watch that to happen?

[ Parent ]
Sealift (none / 2) (#130)
by wiredog on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 02:25:48 PM EST

The PRC doesn't have enough assault ships to make an opposed landing, and get supplies ashore until it can sieze and rebuild a port.

As to Taiwan getting nukes, basic plutonium a-bombs only have one hard to get ingredient. The plutonium. Which can be gotten from spent reactor rods chemically (the chemistry is in textbooks). Taiwan has reactors, and spent fuel rods. The rest of the ingredients, such as switches for controlling the explosive detonators, the detonators themselves, and the like, are dual use technology. Take a look at the insides of laser printers, or office copiers someday. Oh, and the Americium 241 (IIRC) is useful for initiators, and smoke detectors.

I suspect that most state universities in the US could design and, if the Pu was available, build nukes. A Princeton undergrad designed a workable plutonium bomb in the 1970's.

And, yes, the US would stand by and watch Taiwan build nukes. How would the US stop it? Trade sanctions? Is the US willing to shut down the tech industry, in the US, in order to stop an ally with a democratically elected government from getting nuclear weapons?

Wilford Brimley scares my chickens.
Phil the Canuck

[ Parent ]

My predictions (2.50 / 4) (#90)
by Slobodan Milosevic on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 12:34:37 AM EST

Elections:  Paul Martin will be officially elected in an overwhelming Liberal majority.  The Bloc will be almost completely wiped out of Quebec.  The Canadian Alliance/PCs will continue to be the ineffectual whinging bastards that they have always been.  I will vote NDP in the hopes that others may as well.  Overwhelming majorities piss the shit out of me.

Oscars:  Best Picture for LotR: RotK (pronounced LotR: Rotk, just as it's spelled).  Hollywood can't ignore this fucker any longer.  Everyone I've talked to loves this movie, even the hardcore Tolkien fangurls and bois.

Sports: Will continue to suck in general.

Weather: It looks to be an overly cold winter for most of Canada and the northern US, though the warming trend will continue in the south.  California will drop into the ocean.

Music: We will continue to see a mass proliferation of online music download services, as anyone and their dog tries to make a buck at this.  The RIAA (and CRIA) realize that licensing is still the way to make money.  They're just licensing the songs out twice now, and hence making twice as much money.  Nothing ever changes.

Me: I will continue to be Stuck In Jail <tm>, thanks to the inept internation war crimes tribunal.  My cell is still comfortable.

---
"Where else do you have deposed Eastern European dictators commenting on the politics of open source? Nowhere, that's where."
--grouse on why he loves kuro5hin.org

hm (none / 0) (#206)
by calimehtar on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 01:57:58 AM EST

ca/pc 30%. I vote Green. Best picture to Cold Mountain. LOTR will win for fx again and not much else.

+++

The whole point of the Doomsday Machine is lost if you keep it a secret.


[ Parent ]
Ijust did a search through the bible code (1.25 / 4) (#91)
by modmans2ndcoming on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 12:59:38 AM EST

and it says that GW will be elected to a 50 state landslide if he goes up against Dean.

My one and only prediction: (1.80 / 5) (#95)
by fink on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 02:23:46 AM EST

K5 will continue to have it's slow days.

I predict 364 of them.


----

My one and only comment: (none / 2) (#125)
by mami on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:12:43 PM EST

K5 will always have grammar nazis, but I am not one of them, because otherwise I would tell you that you made a grammar mistake even I wouldn´t have made.

"Its" just too bad, "isnt" it?

[ Parent ]

Thank heaven for leap years! (none / 0) (#203)
by onemorechip on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 12:07:01 AM EST

Wow, that means for two whole days it won't be slow!
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

And, by ghod, I was RIGHT! (none / 0) (#257)
by fink on Mon Jan 31, 2005 at 05:49:31 AM EST

entea.


[ Parent ]
My prediction: (1.50 / 4) (#96)
by Hide The Hamster on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 02:42:58 AM EST

The film Underworld will continue to suck shit even on its new video release.


Free spirits are a liability.

August 8, 2004: "it certainly is" and I had engaged in a homosexual tryst.

Tell it to FX (2.25 / 4) (#97)
by Baldrson on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 02:44:48 AM EST

See the Foresight Exchange for people who are willing to go on record with their predictions and keep count of their wins and losses.

-------- Empty the Cities --------


My predictions (2.83 / 6) (#99)
by Big Sexxy Joe on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 03:40:34 AM EST

  1.  The stock market and most economic indicators in the U.S. will recover with one glaring omission.  Unemployment will stay high.  Wages will be teh sucky.
  2.  Iraq:  Not much.  The U.S. will occupy throughout the year.  Progress will be slow.  No weapons will be found.  Sadaam will be executed by the U.S.  Americans will slowly start to doubt our fearless leader.
  3.  Osama won't be found as he is presently dead or hiding in a palace where he won't be disturbed.  Just because that tape shows him in the mountains doesn't mean he's acutually running around in the mountains.
  4.  And did someone say election?  The one good thing to come out of my pessimistic predictions above is that Bush will lose.  His support is slipping and people are starting to realize he isn't good for the country.  Furthermore, there is a fairly sizable rabid anti-Bush faction.  Dean (or whoever) is going to have more volunteers than he knows what to do with.  And yes, the media will come to bat for Bush again by saying that the Dem is out of touch and isn't what America wants, but they shall fail it.  Bye-bye Bush.
  5.  The Cubs finally go all the way and win the World Series.  Well, maybe not but a boy can dream can't he?
  6.  Linux will continue to be adopted by more businesses and governments but mostly outside the U.S.
  7.  I'll get a real job and post less but I won't disappear.
  8.  jjayson will come back.
  9.  A new Adequacy will be born.  (Maybe)
  10.  People will finally shut up about a certain user by the end of the year, even though he won't get life or go away.
  11.  All of Stick's predictions will come true.
  12.  Husi will die.


I'm like Jesus, only better.
Democracy Now! - your daily, uncensored, corporate-free grassroots news hour
point 1 ... (none / 1) (#151)
by blakdogg on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 01:35:41 AM EST

1.   The stock market and most economic indicators in the U.S. will recover with one glaring omission.  Unemployment will stay high.  Wages will be teh sucky.

The US employment rate is not high, its only 5.9 %. While this is higher than during the '90s, but compared to historical data it is merely above average. 7% would be high, imho.


Woe be onto the United Nations, there nothing but a front.
[ Parent ]

Our prediction for 2004: (1.50 / 6) (#100)
by United Fools on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 04:04:00 AM EST

People will continue to be fooled.

And more fools will wake up and refuse to accept the status quo.


We are united, we are fools, and we are America!

But even more fools will show up to replace them. (2.25 / 4) (#163)
by Hai Etlik on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 10:07:56 AM EST



[ Parent ]
I predict it: (2.66 / 6) (#101)
by TheOnlyCoolTim on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 06:02:31 AM EST

Ten random things.
  1. Iraq will be about the same - the occupation and the low-level fighting will continue. There will be no elections.
  2. Saddam Hussein will be given a fair trial, found guilty, and executed. I don't know if it will be a U.S. or Iraqi trial.
  3. There will be mass demonstrations in NYC for the Republican convention. Some fucktards will start throwing rocks or breaking things, causing the police to flip out. I go to school in the East Village, and if the protests reach that area there will be at least one day where I am inclined to stay home or indoors all day.
  4. Osama bin Laden will not be caught. There may be rumors that he died of natural causes, but no body.
  5. The 2004 Election will be close. I'm not going to call it.
  6. Howard Dean will continue to say things that cause the media to jump on him, e.g. the "Confederate flag" thing.
  7. The RIAA will continue suing people. They will either sue people at a slow pace, so as not to exhaust the list of names they already have, or buy a change in the law so that they can continue getting names.
  8. In response, most major sharing applications will try to include some device for greater anonymity.
  9. The X Prize will be won, probably by Scaled Composites.
  10. The remaining space shuttles will be retrofitted and fly again, halting any talk of a NASA replacement.
Tim
"We are trapped in the belly of this horrible machine, and the machine is bleeding to death."
Two more I forgot: (none / 3) (#113)
by TheOnlyCoolTim on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 11:36:15 AM EST

  1. There will be a minor scandal over computerized voting, but eventually it will be found not to have changed the outcome of the election.
  2. No or very few (<10) more cases of Mad Cow will be found in the United States. Some countries will lift the importation ban, others will keep it.
Tim
"We are trapped in the belly of this horrible machine, and the machine is bleeding to death."
[ Parent ]
Sports (1.83 / 6) (#102)
by meaningless pseudonym on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 06:52:51 AM EST

Predictions for the sports _I_ care about :-)

* Formula 1. There will be some form of terrorist scare at the Bahrain GP but it'll go ahead. Ferrari will lose out due to being the only top team on Bridgestone tyres. Close fight between Montoya and Raikkonen for the title, with Montoya winning. Williams take the constructors title relatively easily because, though Ralf's a pudding, he's less of a pudding than DC. Looking wider,

Renault - expect a solid, safe fourth place. Alonso will continue to outpace Trulli comprehensively through greater consistency. 3-4 wins.

Sauber - year of transition with two new drivers and a new wind tunnel meaning they worry too much about fine aero detail and lose focus elsewhere. Expect engine blowups due to the change in rules and them running old engines, which will further hamper them. Fisichella will consider quitting frontline F1.

BAR - solid year. Button and Sato will be relatively well matched. Button will get his first podium, finally. Expect 5th place.

Jordan
Not a pretty sight - fighting to beat Minardi. Expect big management changes part-way through the season.

Toyota
May scrape a win if they fall in the right place after a rain-affected lottery, but that'll be it. Unlikely to catch Renault _yet_ but will fight closely with BAR.

Jaguar
Christian Klien will disappoint because, yet again, Jaguar just can't run a second car for an up-and-coming driver effectively. Mark Webber to go slightly backwards - he'll continue to pester the edge of the points but that's it and no more banzai qualifying laps getting him high grid slots. This is the year he has to work for it.

Minardi
Y'know, I think they might just manage something. They're finally slightly financially secure, Paul Stoddart has his head screwed on and the new engine regs will push odd cars to the back whereas they won't make much difference to Minardi because they're already there... If they can get through the race that Toyota might win then they might even get a podium. Big unknown is two rookie drivers, though - gamble. Expect to get 5-8 points.

* WRC: Peugeot are out of it because new rally cars just aren't reliable enough out of the box and you need consistency. Expect a close fight between Markko Martin, Petter Solberg and Sebastian Loeb. Martin to take the title, Loeb second again (poor guy!), Solberg third - a title, a very young team-mate who will likely trash cars and a lost driver through illness will just prove too much of a distraction to the team.

* Ski jumping: Yes, I'm a Brit but I just love it. It's crazy! Sigurd Petterssen is untouchable in the Four Hills by now but won't sustain a challenge over the whole season. World Cup title to be a close 3-way between Ljoekelsoey, Malysz (coming up on the rails by consistency - no domination but he's always nearly there...) and Ahonen. I have to give in to total personal prejudice here and give the title to Ahonen, as long as he doesn't smile when receiving the trophy :-)


Prediction for Formula One (none / 1) (#142)
by goonie on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 08:41:55 PM EST

Bernie Ecclestone will continue to fiddle with the points system and the rules in a vain attempt to make F1 interesting.

Although I appreciate the skill that goes into constructing and driving F1 cars, they are so boring compared with virtually any other form of motor racing. Rallies, motoGP, touring cars, NASCAR, motocross, dragsters, even oddities like jet sprint boat racing, they're all more entertaining as sporting contests. Why do people bother watching F1 any more?

[ Parent ]

for me (none / 1) (#150)
by blakdogg on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 01:24:14 AM EST

I don't consider Formula 1 that interesting, but I don't think most forms of motor racing are that interesting. I think F1s strong point are its smaller field and more complex courses. The drivers seem less anonymous, and complex courses make you more appreciative of their skills. Of course complex courses mean less passing ...
Woe be onto the United Nations, there nothing but a front.
[ Parent ]
Until 2003 I agreed with you (none / 1) (#155)
by meaningless pseudonym on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 08:10:19 AM EST

Until last season, I was watching out of blind loyalty and the hope it could get back to being as good as it was 10 years ago when drivers passed just as much as any other formula, sliding and slipping around, driving visibly on the edge.

2003 restored much of my faith. Loads of different winners, close racing, drivers passing. It's still not the closest racing or the most passing but it's much closer than it was before and the cars are intrinsically spectacular in a way many of the other formulae are. Watch a good lap around Monza or Silverstone (for example) and you'll see cars so fast, so on-the-edge that they're really moving around, slipping, sliding, bucking under their own power. And while it's normally a boring race, little beats the spectacle of a pack racing round Monaco.

[ Parent ]

Predictions for the sports _I_ care about (none / 0) (#192)
by tjost on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 05:21:02 AM EST



[ Parent ]
The status quo (2.12 / 8) (#107)
by revscat on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 09:32:37 AM EST

1) Some people will continue to hate other people. All will believe their reasons for hating are justified, and that their belief system is truly superior to all others

2) People will die. The number of deaths will, however, be less than the number of births, leading to an ever more crowded planet

3) Average annual atmosphereric temperature will continue to get hotter, causing many to even more forcibly stick their fingers in their ears and go "Nahhnahhnahhnah! I can't hear you! I can't hear you!"

4) Israel and Palestine will continue to fight, hate, and die over a piece of land that is far less important than they make it out to be

5) Wal-Mart will make more money

6) A famous or growing in fame liberal or populist will be assassinated or meet with an unfortunate accident.

7) Tom Delay will continue to live and be evil

8) Wesley Clark will continue to live and be virtuous

9) The people who denegrate Tolkien for no better reason than because it is in fantasy gengre will continue to die off, sometimes by justifiably violent means

- Rev.
Libertarianism is like communism: both look great on paper.

2004 (2.50 / 4) (#109)
by barooo on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 10:26:19 AM EST

There will be another major corporate scandal, I predict it will be in the insurance sector. Stock market will be pushing 11,000 before this happens, then drop to about 8500.

In a very close election, howard dean will win the presidential election, but there will be more major controversy. I'm thinking something along the lines of a dewey defeats truman proclomation, combined with voting machine scandals in several states. There will be major protests regarding the voting machine issue leading to near martial law in several major cities like Seattle, NYC, and Chicago. And with the 2000 precedent, both sides will run to the courts before the polls have even closed.

Sports: Chiefs win superbowl. Kansas loses to an unnamed team in the NCAA championship game. Cubs sweep the playoffs and go 7 games in the world series, losing on a bad call at home plate to BOSTON.

Mad cow disease will be one of the top stories of the year. Several more cows will be found, and it will also come to light that a significant number of cases have been found in the last 2 years that were successfully covered up by the beef industry with the help of the USDA. Heads roll at the USDA, and beef goes out of vogue. Chicken and Pork producers capitalize on this trend. A major fast food company is found to also be involved in the cover up and goes tits-up.

No major terrorist attacks, although there will be several false alarms, and several unproven claims of "we stopped 'em in the nick of time".

P2P filesharing on the large scale, e.g., KaZaA will dwindle due to RIAA lawsuits and action, and the increasing popularity of legal sales like iTMS. Many small networks will prosper, but most will have << 1 million users. The DMCA will withstand most legal attacks against it.

ROTK will get screwed across the board at the oscars, winning a total of one award in some effects category.

Oh, and the SCO lawsuits will go very badly for free sofwtware with very badly reasoned and technically illiterate opinions being upheld on appeal.


--
[G. W. Bush makes] one long for the flashy showmanship of Calvin Coolidge, the easy eloquence of Dwight D. Eisenhower, the simple honesty of Richard Nixon.
P. M. Carpenter
SCO (none / 2) (#110)
by greenrd on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 10:48:57 AM EST

Oh, and the SCO lawsuits will go very badly for free sofwtware with very badly reasoned and technically illiterate opinions being upheld on appeal.

No they won't - not in 2004 - for the simple reason that a summary judgement in favour of SCO is unthinkable, and so for the results of the full trial you'll have to wait until 2005 at least.


"Capitalism is the absurd belief that the worst of men, for the worst of reasons, will somehow work for the benefit of us all." -- John Maynard Keynes
[ Parent ]

good point (none / 3) (#115)
by barooo on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 11:50:01 AM EST

Good point. I just realized that I hadn't said anything much related to technology or software, and threw that in. Okay, so put that on my 2005 predictions.


--
[G. W. Bush makes] one long for the flashy showmanship of Calvin Coolidge, the easy eloquence of Dwight D. Eisenhower, the simple honesty of Richard Nix
[ Parent ]
mad cows implications (none / 2) (#165)
by danharan on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 10:55:13 AM EST

Interesting prediction on mad cow, and as I think of it, quite likely. It seems really odd to me that the US would not have had several outbreaks by now. Either it was a statistical anomaly or it was covered up.

Such a revelation would have serious implications for Canada/US relations. Canadian farmers have only offered support to American farmers despite what they saw as an unfair measure by the US government, and would be therefore be quite pissed off to have been singled out when they had a single case of mad cow.

The CRAP conservative alliance -US cheerleaders in parliament- will have a hard time channelling that anger while pleasing the business class that wants streamlined border controls. Add lumber, water and energy disputes and it's a pretty frightening mix.

Implications for the world food market will quite certainly dwarf the Canadian implications. Beef uses a lot more feed to produce meat than either pig or fowl, so demand and prices for feed could drop, saving tens of thousands of lives. China, which imports a lot of feed-grains, will further improve its balance of trade at the expense of the US.

Finally, if it was a company like Mickey D's going "tits-up", I have trouble thinking of what the consequences would be besides the obvious financial ones. It could certainly strengthen the message of anti-globalizations such as the one headed by Jose Bove in France. Every golden arches would be seen as a symbol of American duplicity and hypocrisy.

[ Parent ]

SETI@Home pays off (2.66 / 6) (#114)
by Fizyx on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 11:47:52 AM EST

North Korea realizes that its campaign of jumping up and down to get attention isn't working. But its economy continues to worsen, and it still needs to try to hold the world hostage for foreign aid, so it necessarily ups the ante. By mid-year it looks like a run-up to Korean War II.

But then an alien radio signal is announced. The world is stunned, peace breaks out all over.

As people emerge blinking into the sunlight, they realize that shrub is a moron after all, and kick him out of office.

Still in the US, a constitutional amendment is drafted to allow Arnie to run for president.

Various things DON'T happen in 2004: the Space Shuttle fails to launch, Saddam does not get to trial, Bin Laden not found, US doesn't invade any new countries.

Seti and world peace? (none / 2) (#166)
by pyramid termite on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 02:22:58 PM EST

Don't bet on it. In fact, our discovery of another alien civilization could be quite disruptive. A lot of religious people are not going to deal with that well, seeing as it will cause theological difficulties for them. The psychological adjustment for the human race as a whole will be immense, yet, for example, I somehow doubt that Israelis and Palestinians will feel compelled to drop their hostilities. A great number of conflicts and issues will still exist and there being an alien civilization somewhere isn't going to automaticaly solve them. Now, of course, if they were to invade us ...

On the Internet, anyone can accuse you of being a dog.
[ Parent ]
what if (none / 0) (#194)
by speek on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 10:20:17 AM EST

they called us a bunch of fucktards? Would that be enough to stop the palestinians and israelis? How about if an alien comedy station comes through and we see them making fun of us? Would that do it? Just thinking out loud...

--
al queda is kicking themsleves for not knowing about the levees
[ Parent ]

heh... (none / 0) (#200)
by Run4YourLives on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 05:45:11 PM EST

human nature says we'd probably build the biggest kick ass gun we could and blow them out of the universe.

World peace might happen, but galactic peace might be something else entirely.

It's slightly Japanese, but without all of that fanatical devotion to the workplace. - CheeseburgerBrown
[ Parent ]

My predictions (2.00 / 5) (#116)
by Cro Magnon on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 11:53:27 AM EST

The election:

Dean wins the nomination in a landslide. He loses the election, but it's far closer than expected.

Terrorism:

We continue to bounce between Yellow & Orange alerts. Nothing major happens.

Linux:

Linux usage continues to increase. SCO & Microsoft continue to FUD like crazy, but it isn't enough to stop Linux.

K5:

K5 will have several bad crashes, but it will be fine most of the time. The K5 crowd will have a cow (maybe even a mad one) when Bush wins the election.
Information wants to be beer.

Got one backwards: (2.62 / 8) (#120)
by Mr.Surly on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 12:53:16 PM EST

Osama bin Laden will continue to evade capture, mostly due to the focus on Iraq

Should read:

The focus will remain on Iraq, mostly due to Osama bin Laden's continued ability to evade capture.

I think I mentioned something like this before.

Other Predictions (2.87 / 8) (#121)
by hatshepsut on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 12:54:50 PM EST

IBM's lawyers will eat SCO's lawyers for lunch. Geeks around the world will continue to treat the trial as a major spectator sport.

The US will declare Iraq to have been a military and social victory, will pick up their toys and go home. Most Iraqis will then look around at the ruined infrastructure and wonder what the hell hit them.

The US will continue badmouthing other countries and offering military assistance where it is not requested. Americans will continue to wonder why they are disliked in many places.

Canadians will continue to wonder how it is possible that we are considered to be the US's sidekick everywhere except in the US.

There will be another outbreak of SARS somewhere. The mortality rate will be lower than in 2003, but there will be deaths, and not just in third world countries.

Summer 2004 will be another season of brutal forest fires and drought in many places (Europe and North America primarily).

Most governments will continue to ignore environmental issues, in spite of a growing vocal minority of scientists and concerned citizens. On a related note, sport utility vehicles with lousy mileage will continue to sell well in North America.

The Maple Leafs will get to the playoffs (again) only to be eliminated (again). Regardless of the fact that this team hasn't managed a Stanley Cup victory in 37 years, they will still be revered as heroes in Toronto.

Prediction (2.20 / 5) (#126)
by spike2131 on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 01:33:38 PM EST

Howard Dean channels public dissatisfaction over continued high unemployment, civil war in Iraq, and emergent scandals within the administration into exceptional voter turnout in sections of the electorate previously presumed to be highly apathetic. An unprecidented youth vote wins Dean the presidency, 276 electoral votes to 262.

Conditional prediction (none / 2) (#141)
by Estanislao Martínez on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 08:22:37 PM EST

If this happens, he will swing swiftly towards the center after being elected. Hell, I suspect he'll do so before the election.

--em
[ Parent ]

My prediction (none / 1) (#148)
by salsaman on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 11:21:49 PM EST

He will anounce Clark as his running mate and get about 60% of the vote.

[ Parent ]
Clark will nevar accept (nt) (none / 1) (#156)
by mami on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 08:11:50 AM EST



[ Parent ]
Not Clark (none / 0) (#204)
by onemorechip on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 12:12:07 AM EST

More likely he will reward either Gore or Bradley for their endorsements.
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

that's great news! (none / 2) (#164)
by danharan on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 10:34:46 AM EST

cause from where I stand, that should bring him further to the "left". See "the map".

[ Parent ]
Say Goodbye to Chess (1.75 / 4) (#134)
by TerryAtWork on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 03:55:39 PM EST

In 2004 the human species can kiss Chess goodbye. A program (Probably Fritz 9 or 10) running on a multi-processor microcomputer that gets cheaper every day will top 3000 in the Elo ratings and strong Grandmasters will regularly get clobbered by it. Eventually it will be understood that people are no longer the best at Chess, and a resurgence in Go will take place.

Not next year (none / 2) (#146)
by Gord ca on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 09:55:31 PM EST

Cheap chess playing computers may be coming, but not next year. And besides, cheap programs are available that top >95% of the chess playing public now. Increased interest in Go would more likely be the result of increased interest in all things Japanese/Asian.

If I'm attacking your idea, it's probably because I like it
[ Parent ]
Too bad. (none / 0) (#180)
by Kuranes on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 04:04:09 PM EST

I've just started beginning to play again after almost ten years.


Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
[ Parent ]
OJ (2.25 / 8) (#138)
by dreamer98 on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 05:54:27 PM EST

O.J. Simpson will find the real kilers.

I just found the kilers (none / 0) (#188)
by prolixity on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 11:17:02 PM EST

http://kile.sourceforge.net/
Bah!
[ Parent ]
Close. (none / 0) (#237)
by misfit13b on Fri Jan 09, 2004 at 04:43:25 PM EST

Not fearing persecution because of double jeopardy, OJ will hold a pay-per-view press conference in which he explains in graphic detail how he committed the murders.

A tell-all book is also released and OJ rakes in a tremendous fortune and lands a talk show.

[ Parent ]
My prediction (1.80 / 5) (#144)
by TheModerate on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 09:27:56 PM EST

Twenty-thousand people will die a horrible death for some pointless, meaningless reason and Bush will win the election.

"What a man has in himself is, then, the chief element in his happiness." -- Schopenhauer

Sport (2.25 / 4) (#145)
by fritz the cat on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 09:53:29 PM EST

Champions League final: Juventus-Monaco (Monaco wins at penalties)

European Cup: Italy beats France 3-2 and claims the cup

DOING NOTHING FUCKING SOMETHING

Monaco ?? (none / 1) (#149)
by blakdogg on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 01:16:24 AM EST

You seriously think Monaco is gonna win the Champions League ? While their form seems to have been on point in the league, I really don't see any French team getting past the quarters.

Italy v France, is a likely scenario ... unfotunately.
Woe be onto the United Nations, there nothing but a front.
[ Parent ]

Surprise package (none / 0) (#171)
by fritz the cat on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 10:08:47 PM EST

There is always a Valencia or a Kaiserslautern in the Champions League - I reckon this year it wil! be Monaco.

DOING NOTHING FUCKING SOMETHING
[ Parent ]

As I gaze into the crystal ball... (1.75 / 4) (#147)
by Entendre Entendre on Fri Jan 02, 2004 at 10:37:54 PM EST

I see Walmart in an accounting scandal. The stock dives, but the company survives. Top leadership fired. SEC wrings its hands, does nothing of substance.

I see the Saudi family geting fxxked over by terrorists. US moves in to prevent talibanesque revolutionaries from taking power. UN wrings its hands, does nothing of substance.

I see Israel completing a barrier between Israeli and non-Israeli territory. The Golan heights are thus annexed. UN wrings its hands, does nothing of substance.

I see SCO's creditors push it into Chapter 11 reorg, NewSCO washes its hands of the lawsuit. Linux users cheer, but marketplace does nothing of substance.

I see a shortage of drinking water in Las Vegas.

I see Musharraf assassinated by talibanesque fundamentalists from northern Pakistan. Bloody civil war follows. US wrings its hands, does nothing of substance. (No oil there.)

--
Reduce firearm violence: aim carefully.

I think your wrong about (none / 1) (#153)
by techwolf on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 05:14:35 AM EST

the vegas water shortage. I think that vegas will just cliam thier fair share of the water that my state (cali) has been staeling for the past 40 years. then there will be a water shortage in L.A.


"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government." - Thomas Jefferson
[ Parent ]

Not as long as LA keeps stealing Norcal water N/T (none / 0) (#187)
by prolixity on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 11:15:13 PM EST


Bah!
[ Parent ]
right now (none / 0) (#234)
by techwolf on Fri Jan 09, 2004 at 12:37:58 AM EST

we don't steal all that much from Nocal BUT we will once Vegas takes back their share of the colorado.


"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government." - Thomas Jefferson
[ Parent ]

And another thing... (none / 0) (#207)
by Entendre Entendre on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 03:45:48 AM EST

2004: CMF gets one round of funding.

2005: CMF donors finally realize that the internet doesn't really need any more playgrounds for trolls.

2006: CMF begs for money, gets none. Sole server relegated to a DSL connection in Rusty's mom's basement.

--
Reduce firearm violence: aim carefully.
[ Parent ]

my prophecies for 2004 (2.83 / 6) (#154)
by Prophet themusicgod1 on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 06:44:31 AM EST

  1. Major Terrorist Attack within Canadian borders-and whats worse, is canadians are still mostly clueless as to why, thinking there were no canadian forces in afghanistan/iraq(but thinking there should have been), Canadians will continue to buy american propeganda crap (see cnn) as truth, and Paul Martin will use this as his reason to push a fully integrated Canada-US military(which is basiacally going to be the dismantling of the canadian military, and the drafting of canadian nationals into the united states military, at the same time american occupation begins)
  2. Canadian federal election 2004 the liberals will take the east down to ontario, the conservatives and ndp will split the west, the bloc may or may not take a seat in parliment, and the smaller parties will take a loss as canadians who vote are more and more afraid to lose the election to the crazy fucking (liberals in the west, conservatives in the east). The Absurd Party makes the papers more than the NDP...and for the most part the only thing the papers will cover will be conservative vs liberal, martin vs harper(? or whoever else). i will take up drinking on account of the failure of democracy that will take place. expect the charter of rights and freedoms(and other things) to remain, but to continue to be ignored.
  3. kuro5hin will continue to deteriorate due to shoddy mod system, just enough for the trolls to give up and find somewhere else to play at(someone mentioned a new adequacy), but for the people who remain, the tight-knit community atmosphere will revitalize and it will be 'elite' to just be aware that k5 isn't dead.
  4. The united states' prison system will continue to grow, as will the right-wing "if you did the crime, you'll have to do the crime" style COPS, Jerry Springer, and soft-core porn magazines.
  5. Trent Reznor will finally, with tapeworm or without, put out a new album. it will be a copy protected CD. no one except the cummies really care.
  6. people are further devalued on television, and as a direct concequence, date rape increases moderately.
  7. west nile (especially in the prarie provinces) will be huge, taking thousands or tens of thousands of people to their death. but they will be mostly natives, so nothing will be done about it.
  8. The Internet expect a new app that you'll need a fairly brand new computer to use. think bittorrent, or multi-angle porn 3d Video format(MAP3V). most people will still have 12:00 on their VCR/DVD player, and web sites will still report 99% of their visitors are on IE.
  9. VoIP expect the major phone companies to make independant VoIP networks illegal, or to try really, really hard.
  10. "Fuck" will be reinstated as obscene on television. no one cares.
  11. There will be no nuclear war, 95 cents/litre or higher gas prices, a hot winter and a lot of really neat thunderstorms during the summer. i will not get hit by lightning, but i'll try. i will not end up dating anyone, but i'll try.
  12. H2K4 will be AMAZING, and emmanuel will have no idea how he will be able to keep this sort of thing up.
  13. microsoft will continue to grow fat, and geeks will continue to complain about DRM/Fair use/what have you. No one Cares.

"I suspect the best way to deal with procrastination is to put off the procrastination itself until later. I've been meaning to try this, but haven't gotten around to it yet."swr
Saddam trial (2.33 / 6) (#159)
by flo on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 08:34:41 AM EST

Saddam's trial will be held in an Iraqi puppet court. It will run throughout the hottest phase of the 2004 US election, being the media event of the year. The American mainstream media will mention little if anything about US assistance of Saddam before the first Gulf War, but K5 and most other internet sites will write about little else. The photo of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam in 1980s will become the most widely spread picture on the net. The American public will not care, and Bush will be reelected by a strong margin. The rest of the world groans, and Americans will continue to wonder why nobody likes them. They'll put it down to jealousy.
---------
"Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!"
For the most part, (none / 3) (#196)
by Mohammed Niyal Sayeed on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 10:36:11 AM EST

We really just don't give a fuck why the "rest of the world" doesn't like us. The best part is it really doesn't matter, because we're still this huge economic juggernaut that, even with the absurd wasting of our money on handouts to third world nations who will provide nothing in return but more bad attitude about how someone else is getting a bigger handout than then, nothing's going to change that.

Incidentally, the US selling arms of any sort to Iraq in the 70s and 80s is hardly news. Everyone knows about it. No one cares. It proves nothing. See, slavery used to be legal here, too, and then that changed, and now it's not legal anymore. Some fucktard with a picture of Thomas Jefferson addressing his slaves is not going to bring the Constitution to its knees, because that is the PAST. What *might* be interesting to see is just how much Germany and France has done to provide weaponry to Hussein in the past, oh, I dunno, maybe YEAR?

So yeah, you hate us. Why don't you go ahead and do something about it? I mean besides moderating me with a zero, you impotent pussy.


--
"You need to get your own point, then we can have an elaborate dance fight." - jmzero

[ Parent ]
Prediction (1.80 / 5) (#161)
by stuaart on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 09:41:28 AM EST

k5 will have another one of these New Year prediction thingies at the end of this year.

Linkwhore: [Hidden stories.] Baldrtainment: Corporate concubines and Baldrson: An Introspective


Major Events (1.80 / 5) (#162)
by F a l c o n on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 10:06:33 AM EST

Some of the things that I believe might happen. Read it as an "or" list, essentially. I'm fairly sure one of these will come to pass, or something close to it. I'm quite certain that they won't all happen.


  • There will be no proper elections in the USA.
    Depending on what the latest polls say, there will either be a convenient "terrorist attack" just prior to the election, or the elections will (again) be full of problems, allegations of fraud, lawsuits and other foul play.



  • Saddam Hussein "commits suicide" in prison a few weeks after newspapers around the world have picked up the "US has dirty history with him" angle due to slow news.



  • China emerges on the world trade markets as a major competitor and blows both the US and the EU out of the waters in at least one significant area.



  • Euro currency grows stronger against a sliding Dollar, combined with more accounting scandals and higher debt, throwing the US back into recession. Possibly offset by another war and more military spending.



  • EU goes into a major reorganisation as the current structures break under the load of new responsibilities and ever-enlarging membership.



  • Nothing of significance comes out of Redmond in 2004, and both Linux and OSX gain more inroads. By the end of the year, applications and application suites (Mozilla, OpenOffice, etc.) have become a stronger focus than the underlying OS.

    Microsoft has an about 50:50 chance of suffering a major financial breakdown given their last quarterly report and the general fantasy they call their stock (mostly based on expectations of growth, not actual worth or properties).


--
Back in Beta (too many new features added): BattleMaster
Stock market. (none / 2) (#168)
by tkatchev on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 04:45:18 PM EST

Stock market == pyramid scheme. You can now start kissing your retirement goodbye.

   -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
[ Parent ]

You're European like me, aren't you? (nt) (none / 0) (#179)
by Kuranes on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 03:59:54 PM EST




Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
[ Parent ]
Unlikely predictions. (2.60 / 5) (#167)
by komet on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 02:43:19 PM EST

Following the theme that the more unlikely the prediction, the better, here are mine for 2004.

U.S. Politics In the run-up to the election, a sex tape involving Bush's immediate family (either himself, or his wife or kids) will surface and make the rounds on the Internet. At least two domain names will be registered to distribute the movie file, and the operator of at least one of them will subsequently be charged for an unrelated drug or tax-evasion offense.

Hardware Asus will acquire or merge with Gigabyte, MSI, Abit or Shuttle. A car radio (to be installed in a standard DIN receptacle) powered by the Pentium M will be launched. Tom's Hardware will be bought by a large media corporation. Microsoft will purchase either a mobile phone manufacturer or Symbian.

Software Fedora Linux will fork at least twice. SCO will lose their lawsuit, and their shareholders will turn against Darl McBride, accusing him of mismanagement. The ensuing row will be halted by some sort of action by Bill Gates. Cisco will come out with a Linux-related product.

Gaming An Asian student will find a way to play Xbox games on a normal PC. Microsoft will not take action against him, but they will urge game designers to add various checks, which will all be defeated. In response to this, Microsoft will launch Windows for Xbox and announce (but not complete within 2004) Office XP for Xbox. Vmware will then launch VMware for Xbox.
At least one lawsuit regarding how games make kids violent will be brought to court, and we will see pictures of a judge playing a console game in a courtroom. The picture will subsequently be photoshopped on fark.com.

Internet IPv6 will finally break through in Japan, with IPv6-enabled mobile phones and corresponding applications. The rest of the world will still run mainly on IPv4. An embedded product (print server, wireless access point, NAS or similar) will be shipped with an Internet worm pre-installed. Microsoft will buy the AOL business from AOL Time Warner for $2B.

Entertainment Someone will buy the film rights for The Silmarillion from the Tolkien estate, but the film won't be finished in 2004, if ever. We will be treated to leaked pictures of Britney Spears' vagina. Plans will be made public to produce the most expensive movie ever, which will ultimately suck (but not be completed within 2004).

Meta There will be another K5 or CMF fundraiser in the region of $30,000. Despite the ensuing flamefest and trolling, the money comes in. rusty promises to work harder and makes some far-reaching changes to K5 over the following three months.

Terrorism and Iraq small-scale attacks on the US are made and claim about 100 lives. Osama is not captured, and G.W. Bush will at some point pronounce him "presumed dead". Saddam Hussein will die under mysterious circumstances. U.S. troop numbers in Iraq decrease shortly before the election, and subsequently return to higher levels than ever. Iraqi self-rule does not happen. A K5er goes to Iraq to do Internet-related work and posts a story about it.

YOU HAVE NO CHANCE TO SURVIVE MAKE YOUR TIME.

Pete Rose (none / 2) (#169)
by Kuli on Sat Jan 03, 2004 at 06:02:19 PM EST

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=545&ncid=755&e=2& ;u=/ap/20040103/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bbn_rose_book Holy crap. That was fast.

My shot (none / 3) (#172)
by nomoreh1b on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 12:09:54 AM EST

Bush get his "H-1b for everybody" bill: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A25882-2003Dec23?language=printer 2004 sees some serious protests around the Guest worker issue--Dean fails to grab the issue for his race. Bush is re-elected once again witha minority of the popular vote. US economy grows rapidly in 2004--but productivity per person falls when immigration is taken into account. In fact, the real growth of the US economy is related to influx of new workers. Jobless rate among US citizens increases. Several assasinations of prominant Americans.

Turtleshadows prediction 2004 (3.00 / 4) (#173)
by turtleshadow on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 01:33:34 AM EST

Global Security will continue to reach for technology over tried and true civil responsibility and vigilance for mechanisms of protection of civilians.
USA
  1. Domestic terrorist cells based on very old seething axes to grind will continue to operate and will occasionally be uncovered due to sweeps for international cells and organized crime sweeps. It will go largely unreported.
  2. Organized Crime will be linked with terrorism as the method used to smuggle persons, money and weapons. This will cause major turf wars between "patriotic" mobs and mercenary mobs that will go unseen to the general public. It will be heavily reported.
  3. The US will seal the north border at least once to hunt down somebody.
  4. The US will execute a coordinated air based strike against an economic or political terrorist cell in Mexico with the Mexican Government's "cooperation." All surviving prisoners will be taken to G-Bay.
Europe & Asia

  1. European countries will begin to run afoul of most religious fundamentalists due to support of sexual liberty, euthanasia, other liberal policies. The lack of overt support for [insert] religion will continue to rub fundamentalists raw.
  2. Domestic Islamic terrorist cells will begin increasingly targeting industries and politicians in England, Germany and France as a means to warn Saudi Arabia and Middle Eastern world of the price of getting out of line and to piss off the western world.
  3. The European banks and disenfranchised immigrants will take advantage and try to use such events to stir up new unperceived EU nationalisms for totally separate reasons.
  4. Russia will have another bad year of civil unrest (duh) and its Industries will be caught providing high tech to North Korea and Pakistan, in the form of lasers, surveillance intelligence systems and crypto. The realization how deeply the Mob infiltrated these Industries will become Russia's new shame and Europe's fear.
  5. In the U.K. Her Majesty, due to illness, will not see 2005. There will be up churn as England wrestles with the absorbent expenses for a figure head succession.
  6. The Church of England will accelerate to disintegrate over fundamental issues as the new Sovereign causes people worldwide to question the whole idea of just who's leading that church, even if only as figurehead.
  7. Bless his soul, JPII, will live past 2004. By his guidance the Catholic Church will announce a welcome those in schism with the Church of England, mostly outside UK (Africa mainly) to rejoin the Catholic Church as penitents, as incentive a specialized religious order will be formed for the incoming religious ranks. Asia
  8. Ol' fashion piracy will grow & threaten international shipping & tourism. Organized Piracy will have the confidence to bring out big guns and ships as local nations have not a means to counter act such firepower.
  9. Taiwan will piss of China and yet another Chinese naval exercise will be conducted in the straights.
  10. Possibly during such an exercise China will perform a limited "defensive strike" and use land or sea based lasers in a limited engagement to bring down current Japanese or US surveillance systems.
  11. After which Japan will become the US's biggest partner for high tech weapons as it openly orders advanced stealth technology for recon and surveillance of China in exchange for US Navy protection of shipping food & fuel.
  12. Christianity will slowly begin to rise in urban Japan as the countries marginalized persons have become so disenfranchised with unemployment, classes & elitism, socialism, nihilism, and a corrupted and failed Diet system.
Middle East & India
  1. Saudi Arabia will have a publicly known member of the Royal Family disgraced, killed or exiled for being not true enough to Moslem principals. It will be a fundamentalist smear campaign but will be effective.
  2. The Hindu / moslem skirmishes in India will become very violent this year upwards of 300 dead by year end.
  3. The US Army & Marine Corps will begin having problems with troop's addiction to heroin and will actually fess up to the issue of bad morale.
  4. US will begin covertly using RAH-66 Comanches into Pakistan airspace for elimination of terror camps. 5.If China first uses its laser based weapons, the US will roll out theirs and use them at least twice against targets in Afghanistan and any terrorist state.
  5. By 2005 US Military anti-crowd tactics will rush to field service the use of microwave technology as SOP to disburse crowds or contain them indoors. The US wins by cooking its enemies and showing China & world its capabilities. The ratifying amendments to the applicable weapons treaties will be stalled until 2020 as these prove very effective in that the general US populace will never see up close the true harm caused.

Africa
  1. A major country will be invaded by neighbors due to plague or disease consuming most the local population. The UN will try to step in with medical but will not be of any assistance militarily.
  2. The French Foreign Legion will be asked to step in to mop up with logistics supported by Halliburton and/or Brown and Root. Economics
  3. Executive Fraud & Corruption will continue to surface. England will have a startling fraud/corruption revelation in the travel industry.
  4. Germany will have a scandal in the food or health sectors. France will have a major political scandal for bribes concerning citizenship & immigration.
  5. Canada will have minor economic shocks and will want to diversify its trading partners only to be politically blockaded by the US smearing mud.
  6. Offshoring slows as investors and banks find the countries being used are just enough corrupt in political or economic systems that doing business there eats into profit and its impossible to effectively to prosecute white collar crimes and get recovery of monies siphoned off..

Healthcare
  1. Someone smart out of the UK will get the Nobel Prize for their team's prion research.
  2. SARS in Canada (again), it will have 5 victims but will mutate and make over 100 sub-clinically ill.
  3. West Nile will hit the US West hard, 60-80 victims by August, Lots of dead horses & chickens and the USDA and other agencies will be held to task.
  4. A major shipping cruise line will have 5-10 dead due to outbreak on the high-seas and will be quarantined at a non-US port.
  5. A major breakthrough in the treatment of various bone diseases and burned skin will be discovered that involves something from the ocean, likely something related to coral (as its now endangered almost everywhere)

Environment
  • One of the Nordic countries will find fishing and territorial waters poisoned by a sunken Russian Submarine ala Kursk disaster.
  • Every wildfire in the US will be investigated for political terrorist angles both domestic and intl.
  • Likely a major urban fire in California will be the Governators first state of emergency.
  • A major chemical spill in the US East coast region will claim 50-100. It will be attributed to shoddy management & cost reduction to safety systems.
  • A minor satellite will deorbit unexpectedly and uncontrolled and large chunks will cause damage to a human settlement or pollute Antarctica in a bad way.
    Entertainment

    1. A major actress in Hollywood or Music [Pop, Rap or R&B] finally will cross over to p0rn, mostly "legitimizing" it as an "art form" in the US, Europe or Latin America.
    2. The SONY/IBM cell architecture will revolutionize home media but not just yet in 2004/2005. It will take till 2006 to find it everywhere including your LCD/plasma TVs
    3. Michael Jackson will be found _guilty_. It will start a wave of media coverage not yet seen on the societal issues & impacts of paedophilia.
    4. Just how did the field look to Pele while he played the beautiful game. A game company will release software for console that allows you to find out and re-live ANY American NBA/NFL/NHL or FIFA Soccer matches from ANY angle and the next promised version will let you by a system to "call-in" plays change play based on pre-recorded seasons. There will be a "per season" payment plan system. It's a Sports Fan's dream.
    5. The US Army Game may be joined by Air force and Army/Marines "Branded" simulations. These may come as rebuild which resurrect old game logic code with new render engines ala Microprose M1 Tank platoon II and F-16 falcon games. The Navy Dept cant win as Harpoon 4 has been canceled again but they have JAG on T.V.
    Technology

    1. IBM Linux coders will be vindicated. The damage caused by SCO in the industry; it will have shaken enough CEOS to keep using proprietary software simply for the reasons they can sue somebody if it goes wrong.
    2. It will be the year that "Separation of Duty", long known to financial institutions becomes a priority for Open source as it's the only way to win back confidence of industry & governments.
    3. OS X and successors will muscle Linux out of the desktop space in 2004; but OS X will hit the floor hard once Microsoft releases their uber secret BSD kernel under Windows GUI. Linux could become the defacto in 2 years for _servers_ if open source gets deeply hooked into the Industry committees that are going to revamp BIOS.
    4. If the above happens someone will found a Nobel Prize or X-Prize like system for open source in the areas of GUI, Kernel, I/O, Application, Backup/Recovery, Network to counter MS BSD kernel. Likely Woz, Jobs or Anderson.
    5. By 05, a theft and unauthorized release of code, something big and in wide use likely CAD or Office Suite related; it will be attributed to disgruntled domestic (non-offshore) employees and idiots as management.
    6. Someone will code a universal spell check for apache servers and other web forms


  • Geeks know nothing about computers. (none / 0) (#181)
    by tkatchev on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 04:05:55 PM EST

    Sad, really.

    WinNT is based on a very good, robust and modern kernel. Replacing it with BSD makes absolutely no sense.

    (Granted, standard libraries and third-party drivers for WinNT suck. But considering that neither BSD nor Linux even have things like standard libraries and third-party drivers, I don't see what you're complaining about...)


       -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
    [ Parent ]

    eschew obfuscation assiduously (none / 0) (#198)
    by phriedom on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 02:20:28 PM EST

    There might be some good points here, but it is kind of hard to take someone seriously when they say that England will face "absorbent expenses for a figure head succession." There are an exorbitant level of 50 cent words in that post.
    I don't ask for much, I just want a lot of it.
    [ Parent ]
    Japanese Christians (none / 0) (#239)
    by Lai Lai Boy on Fri Jan 09, 2004 at 08:18:40 PM EST

    Fat chance. Most Japanese see Christanity (as a religion) as odd, at least, if not down right kooky (Kamisama wa kodomo iru ga? Hen darou!). There might be a renewal in Buddhism and/or Shinto (as most Japanese would consider themselves atheist or agnostic these days) but the social stigma of being Christian (believe me, I know many native born Japanese and one christian among them) and the entire setup of Japanese culture will keep their number low (there were more Japanese Christians during the feudual period than there are now). Also, considering the way Japanese, generally, view the West (aside from entertainment culture, especially movies and music), as rather backwards (Director/Actor Beat Takeshi had a great quote about Schwanagger (Shuwa-chan) becoming the Guv'nor). Additionally, why do you think PM Koizumi gathers so much support, despite his lackluster performance at his post? Part of it is his stoking the pride of the Japanese right by visiting the Yasakuni shrine regularly. In the end, Buddhism and Shinto are Japan and Japan is Buddhist and Shinto. Very few other cultures in the world are so insular; they simply haven't the cultural crossrods that China or India has had. And the Japanese take a huge amount of pride in that.

    [Posted from Mozilla Firebird]
    [ Parent ]

    Can someone check my 2003 prediction ? (none / 1) (#174)
    by johwsun on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 11:06:01 AM EST

    by Iasson on Sat Jan 4th, 2003 at 09:24:40 AM EST

    ...if you calculate the sum of all the letters of all the comments and articles and diaries, here in k5, from 13-1-2003 00:00:00 until 13-1-2004 23:59:59, you will find out that the result is the number 13. I am talking EET. If it will be 14, this is due to this comment.

    How sad! (none / 1) (#193)
    by johwsun on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 08:15:37 AM EST

    Scientists are bulding enormous cyclotron machines in order to find their stupid particles. Their stupid theory says that those particles may exist, but their theory says also they do not know where the may be!

    So society is spending a lot of money to find their lost scientific Graal.

    In the other hand, no one is willing to test my prediction.

    DEar scientist, I think the cost of calculating my prediction is much much less than the cost of your stupid scientific experiments you are doing in order to find your lost particles..

    Dear scientists, I am you lost particle, go search anywhere, only here you are going to find it.

    All predictions are invalid! And science is invalid too.

    :-)

    [ Parent ]

    My predictions (none / 3) (#178)
    by Fontana on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 03:24:03 PM EST

    1.  A terrorist attack in one of America's former allies.  

    2.  Saddam will be tried by a group of Iraqi citizens and found guilty.

    3.  Iraqi governing council will continue to foster democracy.  New Iraqi political parties will pop up all the time.  By the end of 2004 there will be a vote in Iraq or the exact time for a vote will be set.

    4.  Growth in US will be 5%.  EU and Canada will continue to stagnate as they have for the last 10 years.

    5.  Bush will dominate in 2004.  He simply will not have any serious competition.

    6.  New medical discoveries in the US will lead to the potential for huge increases in life expectancy.  Stock in the companies that patent these new technologies will triple overnight.

    number 4 (none / 0) (#199)
    by Run4YourLives on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 05:03:48 PM EST

    4.  Growth in US will be 5%.  EU and Canada will continue to stagnate as they have for the last 10 years.

    Considering the state of affairs in the US, compared to Canada and the EU, one would have to question the value of "growth".

    It's slightly Japanese, but without all of that fanatical devotion to the workplace. - CheeseburgerBrown
    [ Parent ]

    Bush Assassination? (none / 3) (#186)
    by harrystottle on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 08:04:41 PM EST

    The US Election is the key to the year's main events

    Some might accuse me of wishful thinking rather than prediction but I'm actually reasonably serious.

    The puppet masters will know by about May whether or not they've really got a grip on Iraq. They will also know the effect on their election prospects if Iraq is still ungovernable and American losses are running in excess of 1 or 2 a day and there's still no sign of WMD yada yada.

    However, if Bush were to be conveniently assassinated in, say, somewhen between late June and Mid August, apparently by an Al Qaida attack, then the orchestrated reaction to that horror would sweep to power any substituted republican nominee with a mandate to rubber stamp even more repressive laws than the US is currently tolerating.

    Probably far fetched. But if I was George, and things don't really improve much in Iraq in the next few months, I'd be more worried than the average president in that situation.

    If I lived in America, I'd move.



    Mostly harmless
    It wouldn't work (none / 2) (#189)
    by theboz on Sun Jan 04, 2004 at 11:27:44 PM EST

    My wishful thinking would be for Bush to be revealed for the scumbag he is in such a way that he becomes less popular here than Clinton was. If anyone assasinated him, it would mean that he becomes a martyr for the neocons and we'll never hear the end of it.

    Of course, the more logistical problem for the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (VRWC) would be who to replace Bush with. Bush's popularity is dropping, but Dick Cheney would be less popular as a candidate for president. His ties to Enron, the fact that he hasn't done anything worthwhile in his political career, and that everyone knows he is one heart attack from pushing up daisies would make him a less desireable candidate. I'd say that whether your scenario were to take place, or whether Bush gets re-elected and Cheney runs in 2008, it will be interesting. If I were the conservatives, I'd look at going ahead and shaming Cheney by skipping over him for a presidential nominee whenever he runs.

    Also, as far as Iraq goes, we don't get that much information now, so I'd expect the info we do have to start dwindling even further. You can't be mad about the bad news you never hear. I predict that the "Iraqi Security Council" will come up with a decree banning foreign journalists for now. They will come up with some lame excuse about how the people need time alone to recover or something like that.

    Stuff.
    [ Parent ]

    Pshaw. (none / 0) (#190)
    by tkatchev on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 01:44:15 AM EST

    Since when is "popularity" an impediment to getting elected?

       -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
    [ Parent ]

    Very clever point. (none / 1) (#191)
    by tkatchev on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 01:46:23 AM EST

    Have you seen how sad and dejected GWB looks lately? (Especially when interviewed?) Look at his eyes.

    He looks like he's been trapped in a repressive machine far too complex, malicious and monumental to fight against.

    Personally, I feel for him. I don't think he's in an enviable position.


       -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
    [ Parent ]

    As yourself... (none / 1) (#211)
    by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 08:08:20 AM EST

    ... what is the most dangerous thing in the world.

    An America that is unilateralist and uncaring about its allies.

    or

    A US that has been wounded (say by an assassination), angry, and screaming for blood.

    Kill any President, you'll get the latter long before you get "repressive laws".

    Ask yourself, do you really want the military of the United States, the most powerful force the world has ever known, to be blood thirsty? It will happen if what you says come to pass, and they will only look to everyone else in the world.

    Frankly, I'm happier to live in America :P.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Mars (none / 1) (#195)
    by spartaqus on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 10:30:06 AM EST

    Spirit will find water and traces of hematite and methane on Mars.

    ESA will not be able to make any further contact with Beagle 2.


    We live in amazing times! (none / 2) (#201)
    by crunchycookies on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 11:51:21 PM EST

    Consider; the vast Soviet empire crumbles without a war. The second to the last racist state reforms, South Africa gives up Apartheid and grants equal rights to Africans. These two monumental events have happened in less than one generation!

    That the USSR would fall had been predicted for 70 years. The predictions had been made for so long and so often, they were considered a joke. The white regime in South Africa had been going for most of 300 years. In the last 50 years white rule had been formalized as Apartheid. Then suddenly ... gone!

    That leaves us with the last racist state; Israel. The world outside of America already understands the evil of Zionism. How much longer can Israel hold on? I suspect that, like the USSR and Apartheid, when the end comes for Zionism it will come fast.

    In America, where support for Israel is still strong, things are changing. Until recently Israel had effective control of the discussion of the situation in the Middle East. Only pro-Israeli opinions were heard on the national media. Now we are beginning to hear the other side of the story. We are seeing Arabs as human beings for the first time and not as just "terrorists" as Israel would have it.

    The very foundation of our belief in Israel is being challenged. The things that we believe without question about Israel are, in fact, false. Consider the old; "Israel has the right to exist". How did this come to be? How did a piece of land in the Middle East suddenly belong to a bunch of people from Europe and America? It doesn't! Palestine was invaded by Americans and Europeans, it is a stolen country! Israel has no more right to exist than Britain has a right to own India.

    Once we Americans begin to discuss Israeli racism, oppression, ethnic cleansing, etc, in realistic terms, Israel is done for. The Zionist apologists in this country do not want to discuss these subjects. They will point the finger everywhere else but Israel. They will hurl insults to try to shut you up. If you want to really get them going ask them a simple question; "why don't you give the Palestinians their rights?" It is quite enjoyable to watch their verbal gymnastics and at the same time claim that they are not racists.

    Once America stops the flow of money and arms, Israel will be faced with a choice; give the Palestinians their rights or be defeated. This was the same choice that the white South Africans faced. Hard choices, but in the the end they did the right thing. What will Israel do?

    I predict that this year will be the beginning of a real change in how America views the Palestinians and the Israelis.



    Now now... (none / 1) (#205)
    by Eater on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 01:40:46 AM EST

    Say what you like about the USSR, but it was equal opportunity oppression, so don't go calling it a racist state.

    Eater.

    [ Parent ]
    I did not say that! (none / 1) (#216)
    by crunchycookies on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 01:43:49 PM EST

    You are correct, the USSR was not a racist state. They practiced equality for all in their oppression.

    My point was that some of histories' great horrors have ended within the last generation, only Israel remains to be resolved.



    [ Parent ]

    Last Racist State, eh? (none / 2) (#209)
    by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 06:57:16 AM EST

    /me looks at Zimbabwe (sp?)
    Oh I get what you mean, they kicked all the white people out after Mugable took their land.

    /me looks at France

    Ah, thats right. No crossess, Yarmukas or hijabs. In the fourth republic, everyone is the same!

    /me looks at practically all of South America

    Indians oppressed by descendents of European settelers? Well, Venezuela's president is a native in descent. He drove his country into the ground, but its no longer racist I suppose.

    /me looks at Sudan

    /me looks at Malaysia

    /me looks at Indonesia

    /me looks at India (government incited anti-muslim riots)

    Get the point? This planet is as full of "racist states as ever.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Standard Zionism (none / 1) (#213)
    by crunchycookies on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 08:52:07 AM EST

    Thank you for your response proving one of my points. Zionists cannot defend Israel, they must point the finger elsewhere.

    I grant that there are other countries that have poor records on human rights. Only Israel is a racist state. Only Israel claims that it has a right to discriminate against people based on their religion and ethnic origin. Israel refers to itself as a "Jewish" state. If you are not Jewish then that is the same thing as a racist state.

    Israel is a racist state in the sense that Apartheid South Africa was a racist state. That is, that the discrimination against people is a matter of law. We are not talking about a situation where some people have racist attitudes. In Israel racism is government policy.



    [ Parent ]

    Israelis are like us. (none / 1) (#218)
    by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 04:55:04 PM EST

    Do you have any idea how rediculous people look to Americans when they use the "Z" word?

    Isreal was created because the Alliance seriously screwed up in World War II by doing little in the face of genocide until it was over. Israel was created to mitigate that crime in history's eyes.

    Further more there is another simple truth. Like countries attract like countries. Israel is a democracy (imperfect but still a democracy). Democracies like eachother and look out for eachother. America supports israel not just because its profitable (its not even that), but because Israelis and Americans share very similar values, go about their lives in similar ways, an ultimatley, in the big picture, are similar peoples.

    We can never be fair arbiters in the conflict because that reason: democracies attract democracies.

    and New Iraq is more of a democracy in 9 months than Palestine has been in 36 years.

    Also you fail to recognize that Iran is an Islamic State, Malaysia is forcing non-muslims to adopt muslim decency standards in some provinces, a woman was sentenced to Death via Stoning in Sudan, and Saudi Arabia basically prevents freedom of religion. Heck, all of them's government mouthpieces regularly put out nonsense about Zionists conspiracies.

    My friend, racist countries are legion.

    And frankly, there is this myth that the palestinians deserve nation-hood. Even before the crack down a few years ago by the Israelis, the Palestinians couldn't organize anything without UN help. Money kept disapearing (stolen by Arafat it is believed). I'm not talking about having the resources to do something, I'm talking about the fact that the Palestinians, much like the Iraqis simply didn't know how to run a democracy or set up institutions. I mean, Arafat "created" the Prime Minister post. the P.A. is run like a god damn Quake mod team for crying out lout.

    The Palestinians learn how to build and create a society first and make tangibile progress and stop blaming all their problems on Israelis, and then they realize that in order to ascend, they need to string Arafat and Hamas leaders up from a lamp post.

    They do that, they'll be ready for a nation.

    Until then, the last thing the world needs is another miserable 3rd world country with no services, no infrastructure and a charasmatic leader who controls everything surviving off American tax payer dollars.

    That day is over. The US babys the world no more. f.y.i., I'm not jewish or have any jewish friends really. I'm simply an American not interested in hearing about how these two peoples hate eachother for the next 70 years.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Israelis like to think that they are like us! (none / 0) (#222)
    by crunchycookies on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 09:28:15 PM EST

    Israel was created because the Alliance seriously screwed up in World War II by doing little in the face of genocide until it was over. Israel was created to mitigate that crime in history's eyes.

    The Zionist invasion predates WWII and the holocaust. The Zionist invasion of Palestine began in the early part of the 1900's. Your suggestion that Palestine was stolen to make up the horror of the Holocaust is standard Zionist rhetoric. The reality is that the Palestinians were punished for the crimes of the Nazis. Thus a new cycle of genocide and oppression has begun. This time the Jews are on the top and the Palestinians are on the bottom. The result of this new round of horror will likely be just as bad for the perpetrators as for the victims. You are aware that some Israelis are discussing the "Israeli Final Solution"?

    Israel is a democracy (imperfect but still a democracy).

    Israel likes to think of itself as a democracy. Apartheid South Africa was also an (imperfect) democracy by your definition. These are democracies for the right type of people. For people of the wrong religion and ethnic origin they is a brutal dictatorships. There were no tears shed when Apartheid fell, there should be no tears when Zionism falls.

    democracies attract democracies.

    America attracts parasites. The sooner that we recognize Israel for what it is the better off we all will be including Jews. Jews around the world are blamed for the horror of Israel. There are some Jews that speak out against the horrors that are being committed in their name but far too few make their objections heard.

    Israel wants the one thing that it cannot have; legitimacy. They expect the world to overlook what goes on inside Israel and treat them as equals. Israel proudly declares itself "The Jewish State", more correctly "The Racist State", and expects the world to accept it. This will never happen.

    My friend, racist countries are legion.

    I will grant that other countries have less than a prefect record on racism, that includes America. However, Israel is the worst. What other country uses the most modern weapons of war to oppress a people living in abject poverty. What other country has their racism announced from the space shuttle "Israel is the only Jewish (racist) country"? Israel stands alone as the worst.

    The Palestinians learn how to build and create a society first and make tangibile progress and stop blaming all their problems on Israelis, and then they realize that in order to ascend, they need to string Arafat and Hamas leaders up from a lamp post.

    They do that, they'll be ready for a nation.

    The Palestinians are doing the right thing. They are fighting for their country. Indeed, they are using the same tactics as the Zionists used when they invaded. It is a disgrace to hear the Israelis complain about the bombings when they used the same tactics to drive the Palestinians from their homes.

    Until then, the last thing the world needs is another miserable 3rd world country with no services, no infrastructure and a charasmatic leader who controls everything surviving off American tax payer dollars.

    No, the last thing that the world and the US needs is a racist state. Poverty is not a crime, racism is. All previous racist states have been overthrown, Rhodesia and Apartheid South Africa. America was not blamed for those countries because we, belatedly, did the right thing. America is blamed for the horror of Israel because we are propping them up. When the world sees Israel oppress the Palestinians, they notice that American weapons are being used.

    In the end, however, I am optimistic. We are beginning to discuss Israel in realistic terms. I am American and grew up with the constant lies about the reality of Israel. The change in just the last few years is amazing. People are beginning to question Israel. That had always been taboo. It will take time, but I believe that a change for the better is in the air.



    [ Parent ]

    Israel is historically important (none / 0) (#226)
    by StrifeZ on Wed Jan 07, 2004 at 02:16:29 PM EST

    Yay more Zionist crap. How about you take another swig of your Haldol/Mellaril cocktail for that paranoia. Back in the real world, history is shaped by memntous events and forces, not conspiracies. The Palestinians aren't being punished for Israeli crimes. The Palestinians are being pushined for the fact they blow up buses full of school children and call them selves martyrs, and ask us to help them. Then in turn, an Israeli gun ship go kills some palestinians, repeat, mix thrice and let sit.

    I suppose you could call fighting for their country detonating themselves in Discos and Pizza Parlors, "resistance". If the Palestinians didn't give the Israelis a reason to counterattack, they wouldn't counter attack. The cycle of violence starts and stops on the Palestinian side for the simple reason that once Palestinian violence stops, the US and the Israeli public will no longer tolerate Israeli Occupation Forces continued presence in the West Bank.

    Of course, the only person in the world who will ever give the Palestinian people a state is the President of the United States. The current one isn't really impressed with them at the moment. And why should he be? After all, in his tenure, all the Palestinians have done were sit around, blow themselves up and whine about how the Israelis are assholes. They've made no steps forward on even intengible infrastructure like setting up division of power, tax systems (the biggest joke of them all), credible police forces, hospital and health care, or even government investment into private buisness. Really, all they seem to be is a mass of people sitting on a rotten piece of land incapable of taking the big steps necessary for nation hood.

    Hundreds of other countries have done it in situations far worse than the Palestinians present one. Why can't the Palestinians.

    The historical onus is on them. Israel is going nowhere. The US is rapidly losing interest, instead helping a truly worthy people build a democracy a few hundred miles to the east. The EU says something once a year then goes back to trying to get their own mess in order. Frankly, it is a real historical irony. For many Arabs, the Palestinian situation is the most important thing in the world. For many in the West, its old boring news we're sick of hearing about and are caring less and less about every year.

    Modern Weapons of War to oppress a people? I can think of another country right off the bat: Serbia/Former Yugoslavia for, oh, pretty much the last 14 years or so. Israel has dont some really bad things over the past few years (they should have turned Jenin into a Prison Camp, not obliterated the place), but that doesn't even begin to compare to Serbia's crimes. Last that I checked, Israel didn't kill 7000 people in an afternoon or two like at Sbrenicia

    Israel is an excellent client state of ours. Its people work in a market based economy that feeds off ours. It takes multibillion dollar orders of military systems every few years (The F-16I, a Block 5x series F-16 with new conformal fuel tanks that Lockheed tried to sell to the US Airforce before the Joint Strike Fighter, but was never accepted is being sold to them). Israel has contributed greatly tomedical and telecommunications technology (i.e. internet), and like the US, has a whole generation of young engineers with big ideas. ICQ? Created by an Israeli. There is far more to Israel than the Palestinian problem. What they have contributed to this planet has more than earned them a seat at the table. The fact that an Israeli Fighter Pilot got a seat on the Space Shuttle is a symbol of this.

    The Palestinains have to do everything I said before they get their nation. Not after. Every single nation that arose from the ashes of another larger one in the past 50 years did this before they got statehood with UN help. The UN has been working with the Palestinains for decades and yet it is as bad as Serria Leone a few years ago, and they were butchering each other there and practicing ritual cannibalism in warfare.

    Israel is going no where. You better get used to it. The world is better off because Israel exists, and the US will continue to see it continues to exist, because at the end of the day, the simple fact is, the Israelis are more useful and more important historically than the Palestinains.

    If you don't like that, go march around a University Campus with a sign. No one will care.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Time is running out for Israel. (none / 0) (#231)
    by crunchycookies on Thu Jan 08, 2004 at 03:15:29 PM EST

    You may not like it but time is running out for Israel. They should take the best deal for peace now (give the Palestinians their rights) because the deal that will be forced on them later will be worse.

    The Palestinians aren't being punished for Israeli crimes. The Palestinians are being pushined for the fact they blow up buses full of school children and call them selves martyrs, and ask us to help them.

    The Palestinians are fighting against foreign invaders, the Zionists. They are using the same tactics that that the Zionists used to take Palestine in the first place. It is pitiful to hear the Israelis complain about getting blown up when they invented the tactic.

    It is truly unfortunate that innocent Israeli children are killed in this war. They should, at least, send their kids home where they will be safe. Israeli adults are not innocent. Remember that Israel is a democracy if you are Jewish. Israeli adults created Israel as a racist state and they can vote to change it. They are just as guilty as IDF soldiers with blood on their hands.

    Of course, the only person in the world who will ever give the Palestinian people a state is the President of the United States.

    It is not the President's place to give anyone a country or take one away. Indeed, this problem began because a country was taken away from it's residents.

    They've made no steps forward on even intengible infrastructure like setting up division of power, tax systems (the biggest joke of them all), credible police forces, hospital and health care, or even government investment into private buisness.

    That is a rather ridiculous statement. The Palestinians are not a country, they are a resistance movement. No one demanded that the ANC act like a government before they overthrew Apartheid. The Palestinians will form a government when the Zionists have been defeated.

    Israel is going nowhere.

    That is what they hope is true. However everyone thought that the USSR and Apartheid would last forever.

    For many in the West, its old boring news we're sick of hearing about and are caring less and less about every year.

    That was the American attitude but then 9/11 shook us out of our apathy. We then struck out in an insane rage at Afghanistan. Then we struck out at Iraq out of stupidity. We have yet to think seriously about this.

    How many Americans believe that 9/11 was an "unprovoked" attack on America? They do not connect the brutal oppression of the Palestinians that we have watched for years with the attack of 9/11. This virtually guarantees that the next attack will be much larger. This will continue until we decide that manipulating the Middle East for our purposes is just too costly. Then there will be peace.

    Modern Weapons of War to oppress a people? I can think of another country right off the bat: Serbia/Former Yugoslavia for, oh, pretty much the last 14 years or so. Israel has dont some really bad things over the past few years (they should have turned Jenin into a Prison Camp, not obliterated the place), but that doesn't even begin to compare to Serbia's crimes. Last that I checked, Israel didn't kill 7000 people in an afternoon or two like at Sbrenicia

    Israel did murder 3,500 women and children in the Sabra and Shitila refugee camps in Lebanon. There were no men in those camps, they have been evacuated with Arafat. The guy responsible is now the Prime Minister of Israel. Our president called him a "man of peace".

    The victims of the Serbs were uncovered because we dug them up after the Serbs tried to hide the crime. Israel murdered 3,500 and let the world see what they did. What crimes are they hiding? Lets start digging around in Israel and see what we find.

    Its people work in a market based economy that feeds off ours.

    I like your wording here. Israel is a parasite on America.

    Time is running out for Israel. Consider this time line;

    30 years ago Israel denied that there were such a thing as a Palestinian people.

    20 years ago Israel had to acknowledge that there was a resistance movement after some spectacularly successful attacks on Israel. This is when the words Palestinian and terrorist became synonymous.

    10 years ago Israel had to negotiate with the Palestinian leadership. This acknowledged the fact that the Palestinian struggle was well organized and well motivated.

    Now Israel is negotiating to give the Palestinians some scraps of desert in the hopes that it will placate them. It won't.

    Future prediction: The Zionists negotiate a transfer of power from the Israel government to a truly representative and democratic government. Similar to the South African transfer from Apartheid. Surely, thinking Israelis and Americans must realize that Apartheid governments are a thing of the past.



    [ Parent ]

    Yes, they are... (none / 0) (#229)
    by foon on Thu Jan 08, 2004 at 02:48:54 AM EST

    Isreal was created because the Alliance seriously screwed up in World War II by doing little in the face of genocide until it was over. Israel was created to mitigate that crime in history's eyes.

    It was not "a mistake". They knew perfectly well what was going on, and made very deliberate choices not to take any military actions for the sole purpose of compromising the death camps or the infrastructure supporting them.

    Also, most of "the alliance" actually was either neutral (the US), or actively hostile (Britain) to Israel's formation at the time it happened, and certainly did nothing to bring it about other than grudgingly accept the partition plan. Only the Soviet Union and other Eastern bloc states actually sent direct military aid to Isreal.

    Like countries attract like countries. Israel is a democracy (imperfect but still a democracy). Democracies like eachother and look out for eachother.

    Hence the strong record of American support for democracies in Iran, Nicaragua, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Guatemala, and Indonesia (just to mention a few), and Israel's courageous stand against South African apartheid, Mobutu Sese-Seko's dictatorship in Congo/Zaire, white minority rule in Rhodesia, and the military dictatorship that ruled Taiwan for many years.

    and New Iraq is more of a democracy in 9 months than Palestine has been in 36 years.

    Do you realize the rank absurdity of this statement? Do you even know what a democracy is? You are talking about two territories under military occupation, in which there is not any genuine form of representative government. Whether you think the government is good or not, does not have any bearing on whether it is more or less democratic; by definition, neither is in the slightest degree.

    Further, to even compare the occupied West Bank and Gaza strip to Iraq is rather silly, as the two occupations have explicitly different purposes. The American invasion of Iraq was chiefly for geopolitical reasons. We may find, if things ever become "stable", that it does in fact become nominally independent again under some kind of elected government, and may even be more propserous than before. Certainly there is no long-term prospect of large numbers of Iraqis being expelled from the country (they are needed to provide cheap labor for the American oil companies, after all), and certainly no sign of a plan to resettle the country with Americans, other than whatever number of soliders are necessary to keep the region in line.

    On the other hand, occupation of the West Bank and Gaza is on an inexorable trajectory towards both of those things. Elite opinion in Israel is divided over whether some limited amount of land should be designated as Bantustans for Palestinians, or even better "given back" to Jordan, while most of it, and all of the water rights, are annexed to Israel (that is the "liberal" view), or whether it should all be taken, and all Palestinians expelled (parties supporting this have non-trivial representation in the Knesset). Outside of a few courageous leftists absolutely no one even considers full compliance with UN Security Council resolutions, that is, unconditional withdrawal from all territories seized in 1967. In fact, by directly annexing the Syrian Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, and settling hundreds of thousands of Israelis in the rest of the West Bank and Gaza, they have made doing so as politically difficult as possible. Needless to say, this is all in direct contradiction to all international law concerning treatment of territories under military occupation.

    And frankly, there is this myth that the palestinians deserve nation-hood. Even before the crack down a few years ago by the Israelis, the Palestinians couldn't organize anything without UN help.

    What do you mean? The Palestinean Authority was created by the Oslo Agreement and funding from the west, so of course it could not be organized "without UN help". As for "the Palestineans", you are referring to a people under foreign domination for hundreds of years, and under a brutal colonial occupation for the past 36. To what degree a Palestinean civil society does exist, despite the fact that over half of all Palestineans are exiled and the rest under occupation, is very remarkable.

    All that is really irrelevant though. It is not for you, or Israel, to decide who "deserves" nationhood or who does not. It is a fact of international law that Israel is obligated to withdraw from Palestinean territories, and that Palestineans have the same right to self-determination as any other people. Arafat stealing money from the PA treasury does not disqualify an entire society from the rights of self-determination, any moreso than the corruption of many American politicians disqualifies America from the right of self-determination.

    [ Parent ]
    From highest likelihood down (none / 3) (#202)
    by onemorechip on Mon Jan 05, 2004 at 11:55:18 PM EST

    Starting with the most likely and progressing to the least likely, my predictions are:

    1. Contact with Beagle 2 will not be established. No determination of its fate will be possible. (This prediction is too easy; however this is one case where I am hoping to be wrong.)

    2. Bond prices in the US will go up significantly during the year. The Fed will be reluctant to raise interest rates due to deflationary tendencies.

    3. Bush will lose the Presidential election. (If, on the other hand, Bush wins, a high probability of civil disorder exists.)

    4. Dean will win the Democratic nomination (and the Presidency, if prediction #3 comes true). Possible running mates: Al Gore, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Bradley.

    5. WMDs will still not be found in Iraq.

    6. The second of NASA's two Mars landers will fail. (I am writing this after the apparent success of the first lander.)

    7. Cheney will resign for health reasons. I have no idea who might become Bush's running mate.

    8. Presidential election results in at least one state will be challenged. SCOTUS will stay out of the picture this time.

    9. Colin Powell will resign for "personal reasons" (which in this case will be code for strong disagreement with the Administration's policies).

    10. Finally, some rather bold Oscar predictions: The Academy will yield to popular pressure for once, so RotK will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (McKellan), and Best Original Score. No other wins, outside of technical categories, for RotK. Cold Mountain will have the second strongest showing, picking up awards for Kidman and Zellweger, as well as Cinematography.
    --------------------------------------------------

    I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.

    China being the next "super power"... (none / 2) (#208)
    by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 06:46:09 AM EST

    I could go on forever in a thread like this. Instead of uselessly wasting hours of my life trying to make an argument on deaf ears, i'll state a simple fact.

    No country with 800 million people living at or below the povery line, 3rd world average literacy, and sub-$1000 median annual income per household average (as opposed to $55,000 in the US), and in ability to deal with a basic medical threat like SARS without royally screwing up can be a Super-power.

    People love to hype China as the next big thing. It has more to do with them frustrated at the US dominating everything than any serious basis in fact. I mean, our rover lands on Mars, and there is an article in the London Guardian about "Yankee Cowboys throwing out billions, hiring the best minds and hogging spectacular glory". Even the UK, our truest friend, the one nation that we can always count on has an article about our dominance. Granted, its in the Guardian, but still.

    Sure its economy grows at an "reported" (from OFFICIAL CHINESE GOVERNMENT SOURCES) 8% per year, but thats mostly from building highways and towers-and thats all very limited, and all done in Dollars. Exactly how many highways and skycrapers can you build before you're building empty space? How long can it last? Look at the US. When visitors come here, they say that for the most part the US doesnt have sprawling cities. The answer is because as average people got wealthier, they moved out of city "units" and into the suburbs. So what will happen when Chinese citizens get wealthier? They may move in for now, but eventually they will leave the cities in droves and building will halt. This is exactly what happened in the US. This is the reason why New York doesnt look like Metropolis. There is no demand for it.

    The truth is, all economists agree, China will surpass the US in pure GDP by the late twenty-first century . Got that? Late. Not 2006. Not 2012. Late. As in 2070. And thats not counting some huge 1990s like boom that could befall the US or China actually unplugging their currency (which most economists agree, if done now, would set their economy back to about 1980 since banks gives out worthless loans).

    China is a massive mess. Its handling of SARS shows it at an institutional level. The fact that 800 million people, more than the population of Europe, the US and Canada combined, live in 3rd world squalor shows the social problems. It puts a man in space and people go on about China as the next Space empire. Well congrats china. Welcome to 1962. The fact that the unplugging of its currency will cripple its economy whenever it does it shows how fragile even that is. Its military is typical third world fare, barley able to get one nuclear submarine working and flying 1970s vintage jets (F-8? LOL). Then theres its glowing human rights record...

    Meanwhile, back in reality, the US again contributed 51% of world R&D in 2002 (probably even more in 2003) and its economy grew at 8.3% in the third quarter. Highest productivity on planet Earth? Good old Americans.

    Oh yeah, we have at last count 75+ nuclear submarines and are taking deliveries of the first squadron of sixth generation fighters (F/A-22 Raptors at Langley).

    So keep the "China is the next super power" stuff in check. It has more to do with the US being tired of playing nice with an lethargic world and the world's anger that the US is moving too fast for it than based on any sort of fact.

    China will have to be a Denmark long before it becomes a US.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    U.S. dominating everything? (none / 1) (#215)
    by tkatchev on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 11:31:28 AM EST

    Not unless you consider emission of junk secutiries to be "everything".

    On all honesty, please stop trolling. I know of no industry where the U.S. dominates besides that of printing paper slips to prop up pyramid schemes.


       -- Signed, Lev Andropoff, cosmonaut.
    [ Parent ]

    This wasn't a troll. (none / 1) (#219)
    by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 04:56:25 PM EST

    Trolling is lame. Trolls don't rip out facts like that.

    I see nothing has changed at K5. Make a comprehensive argument, people start yelling troll.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    On China, Soviets, and Superpowers (none / 2) (#217)
    by Valdrax on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 03:41:26 PM EST

    No country with 800 million people living at or below the povery line, 3rd world average literacy, and sub-$1000 median annual income per household average (as opposed to $55,000 in the US), and in ability to deal with a basic medical threat like SARS without royally screwing up can be a Super-power.

    China has made great strides in literacy in a nation where learning to read the set of common characters takes many years of education.  They've managed to bring themselves up from 80% to only 27% illiteracy, and that number is based off of the ability to fully read the necessary 6000 Chinese characters that are most commonly used.  While the nation is currently mostly very poor, I'm sure I don't have to remind you how well the Soviet Union did as a superpower for decades in spite of the overwhelming poverty of the nation.

    We are at the beginning of a country-wide industrial revolution in China that is finally picking itself up and dusting itself off after the decades of damage done by Mao's Great Leap Forward.  There is a ripe unskilled labor market in China that is now getting technologically savvy enough to compete with the best in show of the world's textiles and electronics companies.  It doesn't yet need to be literate or well-to-do to be exploited in the same fashion as the Soviet Union's worker class, though much like the early Soviets, the Chinese are pushing hard to try to make sure that their populace becomes better and better educated.  They're just not there yet.

    Sure its economy grows at an "reported" ... 8% per year, but thats mostly from building highways and towers ...

    Well, no kidding.  You go on afterwards to say that this didn't go anywhere eventually in America due to the fact that the rich and middle class moved out, but you ignore how exactly all those suburbanites got the money to do so.  Either other sectors of the economy will pick up to allows such an exodus or the cities will continue to grow by your own logic.

    Also, you should look into Japan.  There's a country where, despite a high standard of living and a decade-long recession, the construction industry is still booming.  You couldn't count the number of skyscraper construction sites visible from the Tokyo Tower on two hands (as of 2000 when I was last there).  Wealth does not necessarily imply an exodus from the cities.

    The truth is, all economists agree, China will surpass the US in pure GDP by the late twenty-first century.

    You know, they don't have to beat us before they can claim superpower status.  Some economists figure that they'll beat Japan by 2020.  That'll leave them only behind the US and the entire EU put together.  That economic clout, combined with growing military power in the realm of having the technology to be  equipped with nuclear ICBMs qualifies them as "a state capable of influencing events throughout the world."  After all nuclear deterrent isn't about who can hurt the other more but whether or not an opponent can hurt you enough.  No, China couldn't take us in a straight-up war right now, but that is irrelevant to the standard definition of a superpower and to the modern political situation where our way dominates world economics.  It is conceivable that China could have the power to make us flinch in trade negotiations.  After all, they're now the world's 3rd largest importers at US $400 billion (after the US & Germany, but now ahead of Japan).

    [ Parent ]

    China strikes again (none / 1) (#225)
    by StrifeZ on Wed Jan 07, 2004 at 01:41:46 PM EST

    Read this.

    Superpower-to be in deed..., lol.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Hmm.. (none / 2) (#233)
    by ha1 on Thu Jan 08, 2004 at 11:30:59 PM EST

    It has more to do with them frustrated at the US dominating everything than any serious basis in fact


    How about you provide a serious basis in fact for that rediculous, arrogant claim?


    When visitors come here, they say that for the most part the US doesnt have sprawling cities


    For the most part? You think LA is a tight, centralised city?


    Its handling of SARS shows it at an institutional level..


    Yeah, the US has a wonderful health care system. Definitely a basis for critising the handling of health care issues in other countries.


    ..barley able to get one nuclear submarine working and flying 1970s vintage jets (F-8? LOL).


    Yep, my guns are bigger and better than yours, so I must be the best. Nah nah nah nah.


    Then theres its glowing human rights record..

    Dont start. The US is holding a number of foreign citizens in undiclosed conditions without trial or charge in Cuba, and has been for 2 years. Geneva convention...whats that? Something that applies to other countries only, it seems.


    Oh yeah, we have at last count 75+ nuclear submarines and are taking deliveries of the first squadron of sixth generation fighters


    More about how wonderful the US's guns and missiles are.Owning a gun must be real indicator of success over there. Americans cant seem to comprehend that their standards of success or failure dont apply to the rest of the world.


    ..world's anger that the US is moving too fast

    No, the rest of the world is just pissed that the US wont compromise on its way of life, regardless of the effect that that has on the rest of the planets population.

    [ Parent ]
    Our way of life (none / 1) (#235)
    by StrifeZ on Fri Jan 09, 2004 at 02:12:11 PM EST

    - The fact that the US controls the IMF, World Bank, NATO, WTO, has the world's largest economy, worlds most powerful military, is home to the internet, controls 80% of all IP addresses, is resonsible for most of the world's medical and telecommunications technology and, year over year is responsibly for 50+% of world R&D (up from 39% in 1989), pretty much means we control everything.

    - Thats why I said for the most part. However, LA and New York are no Bejing or Tokyo with 2000 sky scrapers and 30 million people. Even our largest city, New York City, is just over a third of that (11 million people). - Ease of access to US healthcare may not be terribly egalitarian, but when it comes to quality of care, the US is the world benchmark. It is well known and well accepted that the US has the most sophisticated ways of curing people and saving lives in the world. Don't even try to debate this... half the world (including most of Europe) is still trying to grasph the concept of stabilizing a person en route to the hospital, not at the scene of the accident/incident before moving them. - Yes, our guns are bigger than their guns, and this gives us control of the world's international water ways and great leverage over beligerent nations. You do realize that with the scrapping of 3 destroyers due to budget cuts, the UK can't do any more naval operations without the US or French Navy because they have no air cover for their ships until the F-35 is developed? - Oh don't start whining of Guantanamo. The terrorists we caught in afghanistan gave up their rights to the Geneva Convention when they joined Al Queda and/or the Taliban. Technically speaking, historically international terrorists can be treated as spies since they live within a society they are the enemy of before trying to inflict harm on it. The Geneva convention does not protect spies. We applied the same treatment to Nazi spies in World War II. Al Queda is many things, but they are not even on the same level of infamy as the Nazis. - The US is a military nation. We always have been aside for the hiccup that is the Baby boomers. Just in line of thought that even non-military people have is militaristic: i.e., success and performance is everything. That belief keeps us on top while Europe falls further and further behind. Get used to it. - The US will never compromise on our way of life. We see much of the rest of the world as useful fools, and some nations even as our friends, but at the end of the day, America exists to take care of its own, not other people. The rest of the world, mostly a good chunk of Europe likes to pretend that all humans are fundimentally alike (they aren't) and that transnational organizations promote democracy (they don't by removing the individual from the position of power). More and more americans are increasingly sick of bank rolling half the world's countries and having to cut deals with third world thugs from third world hell holes. Compromise our way of life? For the people of this wretched planet, a planet we basically run because no one else can, not in a million years. Radical Idea here: Soverignity of the individual is superior in importance than soverignity of the nation (or the group).


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Hmm (none / 1) (#243)
    by ha1 on Wed Jan 14, 2004 at 09:10:19 PM EST

    Ease of access to US healthcare may not be terribly egalitarian, but when it comes to quality of care, the US is the world benchmark.
    Great. We have wonderful, but inaccessible, healthcare. I pay $50 a month for top hospital cover, and I have a pre-exisitng illness. What do you pay?
    Oh don't start whining of Guantanamo. The terrorists we caught in afghanistan gave up their rights to the Geneva Convention when they joined Al Queda and/or the Taliban.
    Right. The Geneva Convention only applies when it suits you. The idea is it is uniformly applied, regardless of who youre fighting, not just when your beliefs are the same. The idea is you're supposed to look beyond your disagreement and afford prisoners basic human rights, regardless of ideology. But I guess in your case, you're allowed to decide who its applied to and who its not applied to. Wow, imagine if the legal system worked that way. ("He gave up his rights when he stole that car, lets beat him with sticks!!").
    Get used to it. - The US will never compromise on our way of life.
    I know. Even when your way of life affects everyone else on the planet. Thats cool, just stop bleating when people get the shits with 5% of the worlds population using 30% of its resources and fly planes into your landmarks.
    We see much of the rest of the world as useful fools, and some nations even as our friends, but at the end of the day, America exists to take care of its own, not other people.
    Thats obvious.
    I think, though, to claim superiority over a country or continent, you have to be able to at least locate it on a map. And with only 89% of surveyed Americans able to find their own country on a map, I think America needs to stop being so concerned about the size of its guns and start educating its population, a concept other countries caught onto years ago.
    Oh, hang on, America looks after its own. Well, how can this be?

    [ Parent ]
    Our position (none / 1) (#246)
    by StrifeZ on Thu Jan 15, 2004 at 12:33:37 AM EST

    The geneva conventions were designed to prevent the horrors of World War II. They were designed to hold soldiers of nation states accountable. No one once thought about terrorism while writing it- terrorism wasn't even a concept then. People trying to use the Geneva Conventions against the US to give legal protection to international criminals who are part of a "third" force (not two nation states, that is) are more likley trying to grapple down America. People who would harm hundreds of innocent Americans given the opprotunity deserve no protections. They are our prisoners. There is nothing you can do about it. Continue to whine on. No one is listening and America supports this action.

    The United States gives the world so much and gets the shaft in return. Our consumption of resources is necessary not only to keep our nation powerful and vibrant but to keep the world economy afloat. And frankly, until World War I, the US was pretty isolated and kept to itself and really built itself, becoming the world's largest economy in the mid 1890s. We built our Empire by ourselves. Our exploitation of resources, territory and technology was done by ourselves. Generally speaking, we're sick of playing baby sitter to billions of people who are allergic to the concept of "no pain, no gain". See South America, which did a detour from democracy in the past few years when they elected populist presidents that will drag South America into yet another fiscal crisis after a short rebound. How many times does populism have to fail before South American's suck it up for a few years and change with globalization? My guess is, we'll be bailing South American nations out semi-regularly for the next 40 years.

    With our accomplishments listed in the previous post of mine, I think its ludicrous to claim that there is any country on earth that should be treated as our equal. We give so much more than anyone else in more than just science. The international instutions we're tearing down because they were built for a different world were built by us to "keep us in, the Germans down and the Soviets out". In its place, we'll build new institutions to deal with the problems for the new world.

    Ask me what i'd do? I'd abandon the UN, detach NATO from it and turn NATO into an alliance of democracies. It is time to fix what we have avoided fixing.

    This is such a pointless exercise. I mean, our empire pervades every single life on this planet and can't be combated because, simply put, no one on the planet can be as creative as we are and as agressive as we are at the same time. Even poor kids in Rwanda wear Nike shirts.

    Wonderful combination, isnt it? An aggressive peoples who are extraordinarily creative and have big visions and the dedication to match.

    ... thats the kind of thing that makes other nations go batty over their own weaknesses.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    hmm.. (none / 1) (#248)
    by ha1 on Thu Jan 15, 2004 at 01:52:21 AM EST

    I think you need to define terrorism. Is it the same as backing overthrows of Chilean, Panamanian, Costa Rican and Nicaraguan Governments? Hmm..I guess so! Stop spouting the same crap that US-centric CNN screens 24/7 and think for yourself.

    [ Parent ]
    South Americanization of the world. (none / 1) (#249)
    by StrifeZ on Thu Jan 15, 2004 at 04:54:06 PM EST

    What we did, by toppling governments over the last 50 years, was more about fighting the greater evil. Al Queda is many things, but they are not even remotley the threat the Soviet Union was. The Soviet Sphere of influence would have continued to expand unless it was activley combated. Our taking down of South Ameican governments, Iranian goverment and others was motivated by this fact and the fact that as much as democracy is nice for all people of the world, it was of even greater importance that Intermediate range nuclear weapons were not aimed at US cities and bases. Don't agree? The US government exists to server and protect Americans. Protection of everyone else is of secondary importance compared to that. Look at Latin America now: docile, safe, semi-globalized, and utterly dependent on the US for anything substantial. The fact Venezuela elected a thug like Chavez is symbolic of how well the plan is working. We're reformatting these nations as we see fit and people are having trouble with change. Well, change is hard, and people have to learn to suck it up. It seems only Americans, Russians, Japanese and Chinese understand this fact. All these nations responded to economic and social threats by making hard choices that hurt in the short run but worked out well in the long run. The response of Latin America has been to run to the left and the response of Europe has been to make the government even more wasteful by a new round of entitlement benefits or union handouts. Europe might actually be a competative economy some day if its citizens actually worked, which I realize, as of late, is basically an alien concept.

    What we're planning essentially, is the Latin America-ization of the entire world. People can have their flags, their borders, their independence days, but the destiny of their nations is made in the US.

    And there is nothing anyone can do about it. The world simply needs us too much. As for "US-centric CNN",stuff, what I have stated (such as the US being responsible for >50% of world R&D) are simple facts. Even in the current global economic recovery, it is the US (and to a lesser degree China) that are keeping the boat afloat. Eurozone, just as it has for the past 10 years, will post anemic growth (1%). This 1% figure is not symbolic of economically healthy nations.

    As for me, I am thinking for myself. I'm a college student in Computer Science and am very well educated and have a keen interest in world affairs. Some how, people started believing the law of the jungle doesn't apply, forgetting some how the fact that the Congress of the United States basically wrote the UN Charter is symbolic of how unfair the world system is.

    And the fact that it is unfair will keep it safe and stable.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Hmm (none / 1) (#250)
    by ha1 on Thu Jan 15, 2004 at 07:09:30 PM EST

    As for me, I am thinking for myself. I'm a college student in Computer Science
    Ah..ok, now I see.
    Ok, when youre done with your degree and have travelled to four or five different countries, maybe lived in one or two of those for a while, and basically seen, talked to, and mingled with the remaining 95% of the planet's population (and not with Club Med or Contiki), come back to K5 and post again.


    [ Parent ]
    Yup... (none / 1) (#251)
    by StrifeZ on Fri Jan 16, 2004 at 12:08:58 AM EST

    Being part of Air Force ROTC, that is deffinetly in the plan. And i've traveled to 8 countries on three continents (South America, Europe, Asia)over my life. Heck, my family is from Colombia.

    Heck, my roomate is turkish, and after explaining our vision for the world, he agreed too it is the most logical conclusion. It is a sad fact, but it is true. No other nation is fit to lead the world. Russia still acts like the old soviet union (see its recent bullshit space counter-announcement that they will go to mars by 2014 that no one took seriously because we fund their space program). China has 800 million people in poverty and laughable human rights. France looks in the mirror every day and sees its past, and thus will forever try to live up to its glory days.

    Meanwhile, it is the US that is doing the groundbreaking, the research, the development, the freeing (of 50 million people in 2 years!), the rebuilding. Without us in position of absolute control, the world would disintegrate into conditions that would recreate World War I very quickly. All Nations except for, really, the Axis of English, the Nordic States and Japan really haven't gotten it yet. The multipolar idea that dominated decades is no more - it will never come again, and thus, the rules of international relations have changed. One world, one order now. Countries can no longer behave like they have rights to everything they want- countries are now essentially land holders. Progressivly, this American plan will further remove the option of doing specific things from Nations to better promote internationally stability and security. For instance, any nation trying to develop Nuclear Weapons from this point forward will be met with war. This was not the case as recently as 1998. Any nation trying to invade and annex another nation will be met with war (unless the invader is the US, who as world Law and Order, is essentially doing what the police do in a raid). Any nation that tries to break from the grand globalization strategy will be slapped with sanctions and see their economy crumble. Any nation that engages in unacceptable internal behavior (like Zimbabwae) will see its nation crumble. In short, the US is doing what the UN could not do because the UN was perverted into a haven and legitimizer for dictators: it is setting the margins between which all nations must exist. Stray from the margin, and the nation risks ruin.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    ...doing the freeing... (none / 0) (#256)
    by Kuranes on Thu Feb 19, 2004 at 11:41:05 AM EST

    well, I may concede, I prefer the US as superpower to many else, but isn't it your perspective on freeing of the people and the grand globalization strategy (whatever that is, I suppose it is legitimized by the trickle-down theory) a bit naive?

    And besides, please tell me how that disintegration to a status like WW1 would work out. I'm curious.


    "The Great Other doesn't exist." - Jacques Lacan


    Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
    [ Parent ]
    My predictions (none / 1) (#210)
    by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 07:55:18 AM EST

    1- Bush wins against Howard Dean 57%-44%, but <50% of voters show up again, provoking a major political issue for congress going into 2005. <br>
    2- War in Iraq has a good January, tough Febuary, captures Izzat Ibrahim in early March and occupation picks up momentum throughout the year. Power is given over on July 1st to a provisional government via regional caucuses. Shiite-Sunni friction continues throuout the year. A detachment of 60,000 soldiers will likley remain in Iraq for years, helping the three groups to reconcile. By December 2004, Iraq will be, by default, the most democratic nation in the Arab world.

    3- Economy breaks 12,000 in the Spring. A series of 1990s era scandal revelations and the now growing mutual fund scandal give it a brutal summer. It recovers in October and finishes the year a 5% higher than it opened.

    4- Jobs start appearing in early Spring. 1.5 million new jobs will appear in 2004. The "outsourcing" issue will remain through 2005, yet, as was revealed in the papers yesterday, the true extent of outsourcing is in reality, minimal.

    5- Cheney survies through 2004. The American COO, however will be seen in public about as many times as he has in the previous 3 years - half a dozen or so.

    6- Powell faithfully serves out the remainder of his term and manages to get NATO to undertake major peace keeping roles in Afghanistan (which is already happening) and Iraq starting in late 2004. Germany, with its economy barely afloat, sends soldiers and gets US contracts. France remains at odds with the US for 2004, and likely through 2008.

    7- NATO's takeover of Iraq "peace keeping" duties is done outside the auspicies of the United Nations (much like the Kosovo War). Promising cutting edge American military technology and full spectrum integration with European command, the US very publically begins a multi-year major re-organization of its European footprint and NATO's defense posture. By Late 2005, NATO's 55,000 combat ready troops will have increased to 200,000 due to outsourcing and efficiencies.

    8-The UN does not return to Iraq until Fall 2004. It is not welcomed with open arms by the Iraqi people who riot for days, fully realized they were abandoned, for the third time, by the UN in 13 years.

    9- The UN reform panel reports back to Kofi Annan. They suggest a major reorganization of the Security Council. It suggests that the US, Russia, China, Japan and a rotating EU nation seat are permanent members of the security council with veto powers. India, Brazil and Egypt are suggested to be made non-veto wielding permanent members. There will be 10 remaining seats for the rest of the world, like the 10 seats today. The permanent members are hesitant about the change and debate will continue for years. Japan threatens to cut off its UN funding (19%, us is 26%) by 2006 if it does not get a seat on the Security Council. Another bad year for the UN.

    10- Condi Rice becomes Secretary of State after Powell asks not to be nominated for a second term. Newspapers look for some sort of rift between Powell and the Administration, eventually realizing that Bush embraced his path, and not Rumsfeld since mid 2003 (2004 is the year of the multilateralist after all).

    11- Rumsfeld comes back for more after Bush wins. He continues his major success in transforming the military by ordering a replacement to the M1 series tank that is lighter, faster and just as invincible. Europe cringes as the venerable secretary of war throws 50 years of NATO planning in the recycling bin and single handedly neuters the European Military Initiative.

    12- North Korea sits down, keeps mouth shut through 2004. Big surprise with them coming in a year or two though.

    13- Chavez's presidency re-affirmed in Venezuela. Further proof that democracy came too quick on that continent.

    14- Israelis and Palestinians have a banner year. That is to say, its much like the past 36 years or so where nothing has gotten done. Despite two Administration and one European initiative to get some sort of faux peace off the ground, the two sides barley talks. Administration takes a hands off approach and, much like 2003, refuses to waste its time. Arabs shocked to learn that American public sick of hearing about Palestinian problems and more interested in real progress in the Arab world (namley Iraq).

    15- Osama spends another year scott free and becomes a major political problem for Bush by November. Efforts redoubled to catch him after November. Gut feeling is 2005 will be the year. Saddam's trial will start in 2005. Its gonna be ugly folks, for Europe, the US, the Arabs, the Iraqis, Russia, the Axis of Evil, everyone, which is why it won't happen in an election year and when Iraq is just building its foundation.

    16- No terrorist attacks this year in the US. A suicide or truck bombing in Turkey and the Arab world here and there. No "spectacular" attack (i.e., suicide hijacking or radiological bomb).

    17- Return of the King gets best Actor, Peter Jackson given Best Director and life time achievment award (kidding on the last one, but for 3 of these in a row, hes earned it).

    18- Red Sox over Astros. 100 year Score: Yankees- 27 or so (you lose count), Red Sox- 2.

    19- Bush announces major 20 year space initiaive, to establish a new generation of heavy launchers based on the Space shuttle rocket booster and fuel tank, JIMO, the Orbital Space Plane, and a permanent manned American prescence on the moon. With the initiative is a "rough" outline of a Mars mission in the 2030 area. He sells it as being a major boon for American industry that will create thousands of jobs. Allocating money with the deficit is still a huge question and will weigh on him through the election. Groups protest "nukes in space" (yes, again), and "government waste".

    and now the big prediction of 2004...

    Every year has its big even that defines it in history. 2004 is no different. The defining moment of 2004 I believe will be this:

    20- President/General Musharaff of Pakistan is assassinated by Al Queda linked terrorists. Having planned for this perhaps inevitable event months in advance, President Bush will, upon getting the news, order the B-2 Stealth Bomber fleet and F-117s to deploy. Their mission, will be, using PGMs, to evade Pakistani radar and destroy Pakistan's nuclear weapons capability before the advent of "the islamic bomb". While the strike force is half way there, Bush recieves word that a senior Pakistani Army general that the military and civilian government are in command, militants are being surpressed and the weapons are secure. The strike force is diverted to Diego Garcia to make sure the sitation stabilizes.

    This event will be a major issue for the rest of the year: is it time for all nations except permanent Security Council members to de-nuclearize?

    In short, 2004 will be, after a year of tragedy (2001), a year of coping and mourning (2002), and a year of unilaterialism and necessary warfare (2003), a year of multi-lateralism. Although, interestingly enough, more and more of it will occur outside the United Nations. 2004 will have its good moments and its bad, but the world will be stable in safer by its end, and Americans will again choose action over isolationism in November.

    2005 is going to be big trouble, however. Trouble with a capital "N"...


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    oops. (none / 0) (#220)
    by StrifeZ on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 06:09:28 PM EST

    That should read 54%, not 57%, lol. It was at 8 AM and i pulled an all nighter ;)


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    "Economy breaks 12,000"? (none / 0) (#228)
    by onemorechip on Thu Jan 08, 2004 at 12:59:07 AM EST

    12,000 what?
    --------------------------------------------------

    I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
    [ Parent ]

    #19 (none / 0) (#230)
    by fenix down on Thu Jan 08, 2004 at 05:12:42 AM EST

    You do know that rumor that Bush was going to announce a return to the moon was made up, right?  I guess if Bush's campaign guys pay a disproportionate ammount of attention to the nerd vote they might pick up on the general approval of that idea and go with it, but I seriously doubt that's anything but some remote wishful thinking.

    Plus, if they do go with that, I pray to God they don't share your booster idea.  Out of all the ugly engineering on the shuttle, the solid boosters are by far the most disgusting.  Everything that goes wrong with the shuttle is always the boosters' fault.  Even Columbia, they paid so much attention to the composition of the foam since it went without saying that of course the shitty booster couplings were tearing the foam off the fuel tank.

    If you want a big heavy-lift rocket, they have plenty of guys at NASA and Boeing and Lockheed just sitting around designing the bejesus out of every kind of big phallic object you could want.  Don't go contaminating the Delta line or whatever with those unholy, throttleless, stupidly unstable shuttle boosters.

    BTW, I think Mushy's dead too, but I think his own army will get to him first.  Al Queda gave it the first two shots, but the last one looks like an inside job.  The generals will scare shit out of him for the next 6 months/year with some shootings or maybe another bombing, until Mushy stands his ground over something, and then he's toast.  There's a chance he'll flee to England or something first, but I'm betting he'll die.  We'll have the same nuke problem, but the army will turn into another North Korea for us.  Just legitimate enough to be tough to invade, crazy enough to scare India.  We'll end up closer to India, and we'll have to keep massaging China for the next couple decades to keep them from getting pissed about all the priveliged military relationships we have with all their neighbors.

    [ Parent ]

    Not made up (none / 0) (#245)
    by StrifeZ on Thu Jan 15, 2004 at 12:18:09 AM EST

    Pssssssst. Looks like it wasn't made up.


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    I did not say that! (none / 1) (#214)
    by crunchycookies on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 09:01:33 AM EST

    You are correct, the USSR was not a racist state. They practiced equality for all in their oppression.

    My point was that some of histories' great horrors have ended within the last generation, only Israel remains to be resolved.



    Parochial Sports predictions... (none / 1) (#221)
    by Tezcatlipoca on Tue Jan 06, 2004 at 07:58:07 PM EST

    Olympic Games, European and African Nations Cup of football (the sport most popular on planet Earth) are not mentioned at all.

    Might is right
    Freedom? Which freedom?
    In 2004: (none / 2) (#224)
    by veldmon on Wed Jan 07, 2004 at 07:56:31 AM EST

    Death, will knock on my door.

    I will not answer it.

    Instead,

    I will not question it.



    short and sweet (none / 2) (#227)
    by gregholmes on Wed Jan 07, 2004 at 02:42:02 PM EST

    • Bush wins, big.
    • Iraq stabalizes, and either governs itself or gets close to it.
    • Economic recovery continues apace. Middle class continues to not disappear.


    yeah, right... (none / 0) (#232)
    by danharan on Thu Jan 08, 2004 at 07:40:00 PM EST

    It's one thing to want to believe that Bush wins, but to be confident that Iraq will govern itself? Can you qualify "gets close to it", now that this is on record?

    If you had said Bush lost, I might have been a bit more inclined to believe it was possible. But with Bush winning, neither Iraq stability or economic recovery are likely.

    [ Parent ]

    ...and lived happily ever after... (nt) (none / 0) (#255)
    by Kuranes on Thu Feb 19, 2004 at 11:26:05 AM EST




    Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
    [ Parent ]
    Try this one for size (none / 2) (#236)
    by xmedar on Fri Jan 09, 2004 at 04:17:41 PM EST

    Bush wins the election, George Soros crashes the value of the dollar in response, commodities including oil become priced in Euros, the US has more debt per capita than weimer Germany, China seeks to do a debt for equity swap with the US with California being the equity and US Treasury bonds being the debt, California becomes a Chinese territory and all California property, physical and intellectual becomes the property of the Chinese government, Mickey Mouse ends his days as the new official Chinese mascot, on the positive side there are no more extensions to copyright law to protect Mickey.

    Have you, by chance, read... (none / 0) (#254)
    by Kuranes on Thu Feb 19, 2004 at 11:25:22 AM EST

    The Man in the High Castle by P. K. Dick? The Japanese in this Book, occupying the West of the US, just love Mickey Mouse nostalgia products!


    Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
    [ Parent ]
    My predictions (none / 1) (#238)
    by sinblox on Fri Jan 09, 2004 at 07:27:26 PM EST

    This has probably already been predicted but I don't feel going through posts. WMD or Osama Bin Laden will be found shortly before election. Bush will win. Bush will also use the space program to gain votes in his support, such as the new Moon and Mars proposals expected to be announced. I will get laid at least once but not see much action otherwise.

    Jinx Predictions (none / 2) (#240)
    by bento on Mon Jan 12, 2004 at 11:38:50 PM EST

                   

                            Politics:

     1. Iraq: Bloody chaos. The US tries to hand over sovereignty on paper while retaining control. The world sees through it. The Shi'a keep demanding direct elections, which the US refuse. Shi'a imams and tribal leaders start to supply the order that the official Iraqi government cannot. The Iraqi forces fall apart as some have Sunni, some Shi'a and some Kurdish loyalties. The US proposes dividing Iraq up into separate regions, with the oil-rich areas maintained as a separate protectorate with security guaranteed by the US military. The Iraqis don't buy it.

     2. A surprising (to the government, or so they will claim) percentage of illegal aliens decline to join the guest worker program. This will be primarily for two reasons: latino distrust of the system and employer pressure to stay under the table. In response, the US will declare the reticent illegals a threat to national security and deploy Homeland Security to track them down. This probably will not begin until after the election. However, the problem is of course not the just illegals, but also their employers. Employers and potential employers of illegals will then be subject to investigation and surveillance under the Patriot Act.  Of course, middle class people routinely employ illegals for child care, housekeeping, gardening, etc. This is how the general population will be brought under the auspices of the Patriot Act.  

     3. Of course, the entire population will not be closely surveilled. What we will get are random spot checks. But they will not be truly random. The rich data currently being generated on the Internet regarding who strongly opposes Bush will be factored in to create a statistical, but not an absolute, bias. Some Republicans will go down, but more liberal Democrats will. Republicans will hold this to be proof that liberals are unpatriotic and indifferent to national security because they employ more illegal aliens. Also, one or more celebrities will be busted, so that will become the story for the media. The effect on the country will be glossed over as we all watch Julia Roberts or some such person cry into her cleavage for having employed a Mexican maid.  Since I don't expect this program to really get going before the election, I suppose this is actually a 2005 prediction.

     4. Bush will retain power under one of the following scenarios:

             A) If Bush's poll numbers are strong, he will win, but his popular-vote majority will be somewhat less than expected. The Republicans and the media will use this to argue that the touch-screen voting concerns were all paranoia. Fringe-right folks will instead argue that the Democrats tried to hijack the election and failed. These will be people with no credibility who are known for saying outrageous things. This sort of talk will be dismissed, of course, but it will bolster the mainstream argument that only crackpots believe such things, and that it has nothing to do with partisan politics. This will be spiced up as usual  with endless non-sequitor blather about Elvis, UFOs, the Illuminati, etc. "If we can spend millions on paper-trail voting machines, why not millions hunting for Elvis" - that sort of thing.  

             B) If the polls show the election to be close, Bush will win, but districts using touch-screen machines will violate poll predictions to an unusual extent and likely have other anomalies. Most of these, and the ones that really count, will favor the Republicans, but some will favor the Democrats or even the Greens. As a result, accusations of fraud will fly in both directions, given the media cover for dismissing the accusations without appearing partisan.

             C}If polls show that Bush cannot credibly win, something will happen to change that. There are two possibilities:

                     1. The death of Osama bin Laden. He will not be captured alive. If this seems insufficient:
                     2. Another actual or (more likely) narrowly-averted attack on US soil. This will not be an airliner attack, but will instead involve a chemical, biological, or radiological weapon. The intended target will be a liberal area, most likely the San Francisco Bay Area. At least one of the implicated parties will be latino or will have recently been in Latin America, and the administration will claim he is linked or probably linked to Jose Padilla.

     5. George Tenet will be removed as CIA director, possibly by death.

    The above are, of course, jinx predictions; made in the hope that such talk will prevent their coming true. Conspiracies are the opposite of religion in that they flourish best when people refuge to believe in them.

     Software:

     6. garageband will be a huge success and will itself become a kind of platform, as existing music apps are retrofitted, and new apps written, as Audio Unit add-ons to garageband. This will even include competing products like Cubase and Digital Performer. Apple will realize significant increased hardware sales attributed to garageband (which is, of course, the main purpose).

     7. Weed will be the app that rewrites the music distribution and sale rules this year. It brings together P2P and MLM. There's some genius in that. It will also generate a new and particularly virulent species of spam.

     

    Touchscreens are stupid (none / 0) (#253)
    by Kuranes on Thu Feb 19, 2004 at 11:23:16 AM EST

    I wonder when the US will finally come to their senses and agree to pay for good old-fashioned paper ballots. How hard is it to hack paper (pun intendet)?


    Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
    [ Parent ]
    An issue with your bin Laden prediction... (none / 2) (#241)
    by thanos on Tue Jan 13, 2004 at 02:00:24 AM EST

    "Osama bin Laden will continue to evade capture, mostly due to the focus on Iraq."

    This statement is so simplistic that I am at a loss to explain why I hear and see it made by so many ostensibly reasonable and intelligent individuals. This is the leitmotif sound-bite of Wesley Clark ("if I were President, we would have caught bin Laden by now"), et al. Is it 'mostly' because the government is focusing on Iraq, or 'mostly' because he is hiding in the hinterlands of East Buttfuck protected by a 100 mile radius of fellow medieval brethren, and not taking full advantage of his free nights and weekends calling plan?

    I fail to see how this evolved into an either/or choice between catching bin Laden and going to war in Iraq. Is bin Laden sitting out in the open waiting to be seen if only we would look? Did we point all our spy satellites at Iraq? Is the U.S. government only capable of focusing on a single thing at a time?

    Given the presumption that bin Laden is 'somewhere in the lawless tribal areas on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border', and given that the U.S. DOES have resources in theater actively looking for bin Laden, what quantitatively or qualitatively could be done differently if we did not have troops in Iraq? Are we saying that we don't have enough troops in Afghanistan/Pakistan because of Iraq? If all it takes is X number of additional troops, do we not believe that the military command would put those troops there? And if the nasty Bush administration, in its attempt to purposely frustrate the search for bin Laden, denied the requests of the generals, would there not be much-touted grousing in the media about such frustration? Do we need more troops to catch bin Laden? Maybe. Can we confidently put a number on the 'right' amount of troops and resources? What are the geopolitical complexities of stationing more troops on the border and in Pakistan? Should we be 'focusing' on catching bin Laden more than 'focusing' on protecting our harbors?

    I am open to be enlightened about this. Please respond and indicate, sans flame, exactly what we should be doing to catch bin Laden that we are not now doing with the condition that this thing we are not doing is the direct result of our intervention in Iraq.

    Whether you agree or disagree with the way the U.S. government is pursuing Osama bin Laden, isn't it clear that the issue is much more nuanced and layered than the simple either/or formulation which is being repeated ad nauseum by the best and brightest of the Democratic establishment?


    Savinelli testified that Pickard said on two occasions that he had accidentally spilled LSD on himself, dosing himself with the drug. Pickard acted "giddy" and was less focused and organized for about a month after the second dosing.

    Multi-tasking has been practiced for decades (none / 1) (#247)
    by StrifeZ on Thu Jan 15, 2004 at 12:40:09 AM EST

    Maybe one day people will start to understand that the Pentagon is a very big place and the same five people handling Iraq aren't handling Afghanistan as well. (Yes I know its a lot more than 5 people).

    This notion is getting stupider every time some one says it. The US military is the most powerful force the world has ever seen it has been practicing running multi-front wars since pretty much everyone on TV or in government was born. It does know what it is doing and doesn't need an overpaid columnist living in New Jersey or New York who doesn't know JDAM from JSOW or M1A2 from Vietnam Era M61s (or whatever their number is) commenting on something they clearly don't know about.

    Frankly, on a slight side note, this is getting increasingly absurd - Columnists at major media outlets are talking like certified experts about things they know very little about. Latest tragic example - Anne Applebaum, a woman with expertiese in foreign relations, commenting on a Moon mission.

    Perhaps some one should tell her first that contrary to what she claims, Mars has an atmosphere. This has been known for a very long time...


    KITTENS@(_%&@%@_($&@(_$&^@$()&@%@+(&%
    [ Parent ]
    Well.... Maby... (none / 1) (#244)
    by ChairmanMao on Wed Jan 14, 2004 at 10:31:53 PM EST

    I think that the US economy will continue to slide, causing the dollar to fall and, coupled with a rising Canadian dollar, will either reach par or sink below the Canadian dollar.

    OK, so I'm a little late. (none / 1) (#252)
    by NFW on Thu Jan 22, 2004 at 09:39:42 PM EST

    I predict that wireless cellphone headsets (using bluetooth or a successor) will get smaller and lighter (duh...) until they become (here's the prediction) fashion accessories.

    They'll be available in jewelery stores, and the accessories sections of department stores. Big-name fashion designers like Gucci and Hilfiger will have their own branded ear-dangling widgets.

    Actually I think this will take another year or so, but I post it here just in case.

    Iraq? Power is handed over, random bloodshed continues, US military stays in as cops. Foreign oil investors bring in their own private armies to defend their investments, and this gets complicated. (Psychologist will tell us all about it from deep within his mother's basement in Sacramento.)

    There will be a huge step forward in video game realism. As huge as the advent of GPUs.


    --
    Got birds?


    Predictions for 2004 | 256 comments (246 topical, 10 editorial, 0 hidden)
    Display: Sort:

    kuro5hin.org

    [XML]
    All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective companies. The Rest © 2000 - Present Kuro5hin.org Inc.
    See our legalese page for copyright policies. Please also read our Privacy Policy.
    Kuro5hin.org is powered by Free Software, including Apache, Perl, and Linux, The Scoop Engine that runs this site is freely available, under the terms of the GPL.
    Need some help? Email help@kuro5hin.org.
    My heart's the long stairs.

    Powered by Scoop create account | help/FAQ | mission | links | search | IRC | YOU choose the stories!