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Predictions for 2005

By jayhawk88 in Op-Ed
Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 03:33:26 AM EST
Tags: Culture (all tags)
Culture

If idle hands are the devil's tools, then boredom at work must be his machine gun. In that spirit, here is this years (embarrassingly early) entry to a continuing K5 tradition, Predictions 2005, plus a look back at least years predictions.


At first glance my own predictions from last years entry seem suprisingly accurate, until I realized that most of my predictions were vague and general enough to make Nostradamus blush. In retrospect, predictions of "Lingering Trouble in Iraq", "Up and Down Economy", and "Television Continues To Suck" seem like pretty safe bets for pretty much any year the past two decades. Still, I do hold proud my prediction of a Bush win (though against the wrong man), as well as my sports predictions, including steriod scandals and a Red Sox World Series win.

Many posters correctly predicted the no-show of Osama Bin Laden, and the North Korea situation largely being a non-issue. Many correctly picked Bush as the election winner, though it seems most had him defeating Howard Dean. I was unable to find anyone who correctly picked the Democratic nomination of John Kerry. A few posters also correctly predicted the Red Sox World Series win, including StrifeZ, johnny, and baroo. maynard deserves recognition for predicting a Republican takeover of the House and Senate, as does TheOnlyCoolTim for predicting the XPrize winner.

Apologies to any amazingly correct predictions I missed, but enough of the past, let's look into the future.

Iraq: Iraq will continue to dominate headlines, and will be the major news story of 2005. Elections will be held, though not on the January timeframe currently being put forth by the Bush administration. A missed deadline due to violence will lead to even greater crackdowns on insurgents by the US military during Q1 of 2005, and elections will finally be held sometime in March.

Pressure for an Iraqi pullout will be at an all time high by summer, and despite many lingering threats, the bulk of coalition forces will be pulled from Iraq by September of 2005. A continued US military presence will stabalize the new Iraqi government in the short term, but increasing violence and attacks towards the end of the year will require this presence to increase more and more as the year drags on. By 2006, US troop depoloyment in Iraq will be almost back to the levels they are currently, and it will be clear that a significant US presence will be needed for a very long time, lest the country fall into civil war.

Osama bin Laden: Everyones favorite most wanted terrorist will finally be captured, or proof of his death will be found. His capture/death will not affect terrorism across the globe in any meaningful ways.

Economy: I honestly don't see anything major happening here. Barring any major disaster or terrorist attack, we should see continued slow growth through most sectors. Fed rates continue to rise throughout the year.

Media: The idea of bloggers breaking and making news continues to be a controversial topic throughout the year, and while most in the established media decry bloggers as amateur hour, everyone will remain fascinated by the practice (and it's potential).

The general fear of the FCC within broadcast media will begin to wane in 2005. Several reports through the year will highlight to the general public that the vast majority of the so-called "moral outrage" against media indecency is generated by a few very vocal advocacy groups.

Sports: A dark year for baseball, as the Balco hearings lead to investigations of other companies supplying other players with steroids. The "asterick" question for Bonds and other players records will remain largely unadressed by baseball, but the players union will eventually be forced to agree to a more stringent steroid testing policy. Football will be dragged into the steroid scandal as well, and potentially will reveal even more widespread use of the drugs than baseball.

The 2004-05 NHL season is officially declared dead early in '05, and the lockout will continue throughout the summer into the start of next season. Eventually an agreement will be reached, but the damage to the NHL will be severe, as many fans are lost forever, and many foreign born players decide to stay with professional European leagues. The fallout will be drastically slashed revenues from tickets, merchandise, and TV contracts, and perhaps as many as 10 folded teams within 5 years.

Specific Sports Predictions:
College Football BCS: Oklahoma avenges their embarrassing loss last year in a hard fought game against USC, but again there is a split champion as Auburn makes a statement and crushes Va Tech.
Super Bowl: The Pittsburg Steelers ride a good defense and an inspired Jerome Bettis to the Super Bowl, where they defeat the Atlanta Falcons, ending the Falcons suprising playoff run. The Eagles are once again denied, and Ben Rothlisberger is the new Tom Brady.
NBA Championship: Tim Duncan solidifies himself as one of the greatest NBA players ever, as the Spurs defeat the Miami Heat. The Duncan-Shaq matchup is one for the ages.
Stanley Cup: NA
NCAA Men's Basketball: A "homer" pick, as Wayne Simeon, returning from a mid season injury, pulls a Danny Manning and carries the Jayhawks to an NCAA title.
World Series: Despite not signing Randy Johnson, pitchers Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright solidify the Yankees starting pitching enough to get them another World Series victory over the resurgant Chicago Cubs. It should be noted that it pains the author greatly to make this pick.

Technology/Teh Intarweb: Mozilla and Firefox continue to chew into IE's market share, forcing Microsoft to announce plans for IE 7, promised late this year and being delivered sometime in 2006. Expect browser share to run roughly 60-40 for IE by the end of the year.

Google will see troubled times in 2005, as it's stock invariably comes down to Earth, and the company struggles to keep introducing features that excite investors. GMail will go non-beta sometime in 2005, but have little immediate impact outside of tech circles, as Yahoo, Hotmail, and others continue to match GMails features.

A webcomic artist (even money on Scott Kurtz, 2-1 gets you the PA boys or Illiad) receives major mainstream media attention for their work in some way, resulting in a renewed interest and focus on webcomics in general. The web in general continues to become more pervasive in nearly everyones lives, though major events are few and far between.

2005 will be known as the "Year of Spyware" within security circles, as most companies begin to take drastic and necessary steps in preventing spyware outbreaks on their computers. The launch of several enterprise-level spyware protection products from the likes of McAfee, Norton, and AdAware will allow admins to gain an upper hand in the battle. Monitoring of employees internet activities will reach an all-time high, and at many major companies personal email and internet browsing may become a thing of the past.

And now, just for fun and a little change of pace, a few long-term predictions for the next 10 years.

- Definitive proof that microscopic life once existed on Mars will be discovered, leading to a minor cultural revolution, particularly in science and religion. An off-shoot of Christianity will appear that attempts to explain for "One God-Many Worlds", and will gain a major following around the globe. Interest in SETI and other searches for life on other planets reaches an all time high.

- The Internet continues to become a major part of nearly every persons life, but reaches a point where it begins to feel stagnant to many. A radical new technology towards the end of the decade, something other than faster computers and fatter data pipes, becomes necessary to take the Internet from "fun thing to play with" to "essential communication tool that no person is ever without". Probably some new form of wireless technology that allows a person to access the Internet from anywhere on nearly any device, relatively free of equipment or location concerns.

- Major advances in electrical engine technology has sales of electrical or hybrid vehicles far outpacing traditional gas powered vehicles. It is believed that by the year 2030 gas powered vehicles will be totally gone from the roadways, still useful only for farming or construction uses.

- Theories on world government and role of nations in a global society will be heavily influenced by the writings of several authors, who propose radical new ideas on the subject. Their influence, along with the continued work towards peace by the US, Canada, Britian, most of Europe, and China, will result in the fragile beginnings of a true world government, a so called "Super UN".

That's all I've got, how about you?

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Poll
Most popular prediction this year?
o Bush/Osama will kill us all OMG WTF! 13%
o I'll get my free iPod! 1%
o Someone on K5 will have sex! 24%
o Episode 3 will suck! 35%
o "ROR" will be added to the Oxford English dictionary. 14%
o Elinor Rose Foster will spit up on a server, bring down K5. 11%

Votes: 97
Results | Other Polls

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Predictions for 2005 | 164 comments (152 topical, 12 editorial, 0 hidden)
My prediction (2.78 / 19) (#3)
by DominantParadigm on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 06:47:08 PM EST

Self-righteous twits will make predictions (about 2006, natch) which make their prejudices, biases and political leanings crystal clear.  If any of their predictions come true, it will be completely due to chance.

Can't go wrong with that one.

Caller:So you're advocating bombing innocent children? Howard Stern:Yes, of course!


Predictions (2.71 / 7) (#4)
by Big Sexxy Joe on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 07:05:41 PM EST

Nothing good.  Every major problem the U.S. and the rest of the world face will slowly get worse.

The U.S. will implement a highly inadvisable tax cut for the upper class.  The U.S. will face higher trade and Federal Budget defiecits.  The dollar will continue to fall against other currencies and little will be said or done about this.  U.S. states will have many serious budget shortfalls which will be blamed on Democrats when appropriate and the effects of terrorism in the other cases.  

Iraq will hold elections and legitamacy of the results will be questioned.  U.S. will have equal or less control of Iraq by the end of the year.  The U.S. will be on the road to a military draft or will already have one in place due to the deterorating situation in Iraq.  Donald Rumsfeld will be scapegoated for Bush's mistakes.

There will be more disease, more poverty, more hunger, and more thirst in 2005.  The lack of free trade and globalisation will be blamed.

There will be more global warming, 2005 will likely be the warmest year on record.  It will be said that the causes are unclear.

The media will grow more conservative as the media decries the extreme liberal bias in the media.  Control of the media will become more centralized and the media will hail this as a good thing.

Oh, and Osama will most certainly not get captured.  Bush will say that this was never a priority, but if you must assign blame it was caused be elitist liberals.

America will rejoice that we have such a strong, moral leader as Bush to lead us through these troubled times.  The Bush administration will use its control of all three branches of the government to do many suprising things.  Some people will protest because they obviously hate America.  Thankfully, none of these people will be Democratic Congressman.  They will generously lavish praise on Bush for the way he is leading America.

I'm like Jesus, only better.
Democracy Now! - your daily, uncensored, corporate-free grassroots news hour

Sadly, (none / 1) (#100)
by HardwareLust on Mon Jan 03, 2005 at 01:38:03 PM EST

I agree with you.  The outlook for the US and it's citizens is bleak.

Oh, and that deficit thing?  At the moment, it's growing at a rate of $900,000 a day.  After the inevitable tax cuts and credits for Bush's cronies, it's only going to get much, much worse.

You didn't mention the impending destruction of the Supreme Court, either.  Bush will have an opportunity to add a couple more ultra right-wing conservatives on there, too.  Other than his "war", this will have the longest-lasting negative impact of any decision made during his entire administration.



If you disagree, POST, don't moderate!

[ Parent ]

You heard it here first... (2.75 / 4) (#5)
by Tyler Durden on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 08:23:21 PM EST

I always hope that the coming year will be better than the last, but for the last few years that hasn't been the case.  So, I'm going with the flow, and come with bad tidings:

Iran will develop nuclear weapons.

Iraq will continue to be unstable.  Elections will be held on schedule.  Sunnis will not feel the elections are valid and hence continue insurgent activities.  The US will begin a slow withdrawal in the last part of the year (after Summer).  Say about 90,000 US troops at year end.

Stocks will gain 10% early on, but fall back as the market struggles with the real estate bubble.  Interest rates will continue to rise; up 2.5% by year end.

North Korea, no change (though collapse is eminent  before 2010).

Peace between Israel and Palestineans will not happen this year.  Small scale violence will continue.

Bin Laden continues to elude capture.

Bush will try for social security reform, but fail as the AARP mobilizes resistance.  He is successful in some measure of tax reform.  The deficit is reduced as the dollar continues to fall against world currencies.  China unlinks the yuan from the dollar.

Cheney suffers another heart attack, but remains in office.

A more secure BitTorrent-like client is released mid-year.  

Good luck all!

Jesus Christ, EVERYONE is a troll here at k5, even the editors, even rusty! -- LilDebbie

TROLL-RELATED PREDICTIONS (2.12 / 8) (#6)
by football fan on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 08:55:35 PM EST

  • More genital-related photographs will be posted to Slashdot.org's -->20721
  • Rusty will continue to keep his $70K
  • The CMF will continue to be a laughing stock
  • Tex Bigballs will continue to be an accountant taking night classes with a suped-up IBM (now owned by a Chinese company) ThinkPad.  He will also continue verbally kicking your ass
  • Walmart will buy out OSDN and give all open-source code to China
  • Many regular posters will continue to FAIL IT!, told on a regular basis that they HBT, and requesting that they HAND, hoping that their advice is helpful (HTH), and if not, promptly told to FOAD
  • We will continue to be reminded that what we just said is not important, I mean, like, dozens of soldiers died yesterday or an earthquake killed thousands or something.  GET SOME FUCKING PRIORITIES
  • Wikipedia will vote the GNAA article up for deletion for its sixth, seventh, and eighth times, once again failing it
  • Rusty's will brainwash his daughter Elinor with several Perl tapes and put her to work 18 hours a day in here crib fixing Scoop security leaks and improving code so that it can be bought-out by Microsoft's new collaborative blogging division


Don't reply to my comment, RATE my comment

I predict (2.00 / 3) (#10)
by godix on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 09:10:16 PM EST

Sparks - I Predict

You're gonna take a walk in the rain
And you're gonna get wet
(I predict)

You're gonna eat a bowl of chow mein
And be hungry real soon
(I predict)
Are my sources correct
(I predict)
They're gonna find the Queen is a man
But that Philip don't care
(I predict)
Lassie will prove that Elvis and her
Had a fleeting affair
(I predict)
Are my sources correct
Are my sources correct
Yes I know they're corect
(I predict)

Men, if you say your prayers
You'll never lose your hair(I predict)

L.A. is safe
Ain't gonna quake
Ain't gonna quake
(I predict)

And somebody's gonna die
But I can't reveal who
Cold beer will cure a cold
Cold beer and pretzels, takes care of cancer
Moscow will march to France
They'll do the Can-Can Dance
Don't worry, it'll work out
Maxim's will throw them out

They're gonna stop Saturday night
So you better have fun now
(I predict)
They're gonna stop having the sun
So you better get tan now

And this song will fade out
And this song will fade out
And this song will fade out
(I predict)

"Yeah, we rocked the vote all right. Those little bastards betrayed us again."
- Hunter S. Thompson on the 2004 election.

Bankruptcy reform . . . (none / 1) (#11)
by acceleriter on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 10:09:27 PM EST

. . . will finally pass, just in time to catch the millions of newly unemployed as middle class jobs continue to hemmorrhage from the outsourcing wound, and cheap H1Bs pick up what can't be located.

With the dollar in freefall from the tax and spend policies of the administration, interest rates will accelerate briskly, with the Prime breaking 10% before year's end. ARMs, credit cards, and other variable rate consumer debt carried by the public will cause a recession, exacerbated by bankruptcy reform.

Predictions (What a creative subject!) (none / 1) (#12)
by Armada on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 11:06:44 PM EST

Iraq: The insurgents will be quelled for the most part but there will be increased activity on the border of Iraq/Iran. The Kurds will call for a "Kurdistan".

Pressure for an Iraqi pullout will be at an all time high by summer, and despite many lingering threats, the bulk of coalition forces will be pulled from Iraq by September of 2005.

No, it will be high by the end of next year, with scheduled pullouts in 2006 and a handful of immediates before Christmas. There will also be a horrible death of a ranking official.

Osama bin Laden: His capture/death will not affect terrorism across the globe in any meaningful ways.

True, but it'll be proof of his death. By the end of the year we still won't know for certain how, but it'll be the talk of only conspiracy theorists, the US will take a stance that (as far as they know) a relative/close friend killed him and gave them the location of the remains.

Economy: Continued IT cuts except in the IT security sectors. Web application worms will grow in popularity. A remote exploit to crash Windows XP despite the firewall will be found, as will there be a highly talked-about destructive worm that destroys data.

Media: Just saying blogging will increase does not do it justice. Seven major stories will come from blogs this year, including a missing person's case where their blog will be drowned in senseless posting.

The FCC will hand out only two major fines this year.

Sports: Cubs will finally win. But no one will care, because the only thing mentioned in baseball news will be steroids. There will be a funny political cartoon to illustrate this.

Football will be dragged into the steroid scandal as well, and potentially will reveal even more widespread use of the drugs than baseball.

Wrong. Football will continue to grow in popularity. Basketball would have steroid problems far sooner than football.

Personally, I don't care about hockey

Specific Sports Predictions: I already said Cubs are going to win, how more specific do I have to get? (Note: I'm serious)

Technology/Teh Intarweb: IE share will drop to 70 percent. The media will exaggerate too many Firefox flaws for people to consider really switching. Windows 2000 will be phased out at most major corporations and universities.

Google's stock is not overrated.

No webcomic artist will have major claims to fame. PvPOnline will shut down.

2004 was the spyware year. 2005 will be the year of WebApplication attacks and worms. A utility to automate XSS scripting attacks for popular forum and community open-source software will be developed and released. Exploits in IE and Mozilla that allow simple browser crashing and URL spoofing will also be commonplace.

And now, just for fun and a little change of pace, a few long-term predictions for the next 10 years.

- Definitive proof that microscopic life once existed on Mars will be discovered,

2006 to be exact.

- Probably some new form of wireless technology that allows a person to access the Internet from anywhere on nearly any device, relatively free of equipment or location concerns.

Cigarette box-sized to be exact. First developed in 2005/2006, but doesn't actually get "discovered", at least by Slashdot, till 2007.

- Major advances in electrical engine technology has sales of electrical or hybrid vehicles far outpacing traditional gas powered vehicles.

No. The costs will still be too high for USians.

- Theories on world government

No. The US will drop most support for the UN and the only hope for the world will be the increasing membership of the Green and Libertarian parties, which will begin to have significant impacts on House and Senate races by 2008.

membership, schmembership (none / 0) (#17)
by Kasreyn on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 04:23:06 AM EST

they can call themselves members all they wants, but I think this election showed that, whether you want to call it duopoly brainwashing or simple concern over their country, third-party members are defecting in droves to vote for the two major parties.

All the two major parties in the U.S.A. have to do is continue to be scary enough to third parties on the other side of the fence to scare everyone into getting on board. Which means the Republicans need to continue to be needlessly wrongheaded about the environment, and the Democrats need to continue to be needlessly wrongheaded about individual liberties. This will make a vote for the duopoly not only palatable, but necessary to 3rd-party members on that side of the fence, if only because the enemy is such a scary boogeyman.

That's how it went down this year for Nader and the Greens. I see no reason for the trend to reverse.


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Note, get out of your bubble (none / 1) (#56)
by Armada on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 12:33:47 PM EST

As a liberal, you haven't a clue about what real third party support exists in this country. The Greens are not organized. Granted, I'll give them a lot of kudos for trying, but they are still struggling to establish themselves and even define party planks.

Some current quandries are similar to problems the Democrats could never resolve, do you go pro-environment and lose the core union support or do you go pro-union and lose the support of the sierra club and greenpeace? It's possible to do both by making "environment certification officer" positions and other useless positions, but since the true value of these jobs are worth next to nothing, they are the first on the chopping block when the company needs to save money. The truth is, the unions don't have the power they do anymore simply because the US economy is a service economy. Anyway, you got me on a bad topic.

The Greens were Nader. Their whole fame came from Nader. The Libertarian party isn't the "party of Badnarik" or the "party of Browne". In fact, you could pretty much say it's the party of Ah-nold, due to the fact that he doesn't take the religious right's view of moral values to include broad ban's on gay marriage or drugs.

The Greens might have lost that flashy appeal, but they'll revise party planks and develop and grow much along the lines that the LP has. I will never vote Republican again for president, unless something huge happens, like a McCain/Paul (Ron Paul) ticket.

[ Parent ]

Something huge? (none / 0) (#83)
by Kasreyn on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 12:35:39 PM EST

I don't believe any presidential race is that "huge" when compared to control of Congress... McCain/RuPaul or whoever it is you're in favor of won't be able to do much if the hill is peopled with Republican or Democratic party hacks.

There's a reason why you hear a lot more about third parties in presidential races than you do in Congressional races. Presidents are still, somewhat, figureheads, while the real power lies in Congress. I won't believe in any third party's "support" until I start seeing them have an impact on voting on legislation, or start to take over some critical subcommittees.

Although, of course, a third party president could do much to improve the chances of members of his party running for Congress.


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Uhmm.. (none / 1) (#90)
by Armada on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 07:54:12 PM EST

McCain/RuPaul or whoever it is you're in favor of won't be able to do much if the hill is peopled with Republican or Democratic party hacks.

You miss part of the essence of Libertarianism: "A do-little government is good. A do-nothing government is better."

Remember the federal government shutdown from Dec 1995 to 1996? Think that, but on a much larger scale. The economy would be impeded by useless regulations or, at least, enforcement of such.

Don't get me wrong, people might freak and actually think we need the federal government for something, like national defense, but I think they'd find real quickly just how much money is wasted on it as well.


[ Parent ]

Hooray for Anarchism! (none / 0) (#105)
by Kasreyn on Mon Jan 03, 2005 at 08:47:37 PM EST

Do-nothing governments are great, because as we all know, the powerful can be trusted to treat the less-powerful fairly without any oversight from society!

Thank goodness man is perfect and just; otherwise anarchy wouldn't work! Geez... can you imagine what a horrible world that would be to live in?


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Uhmm.. (none / 1) (#137)
by Armada on Sun Jan 09, 2005 at 10:41:25 PM EST

Define "powerful" and you have the US's current politicians. They aren't benevolent simply because they are elected by "the people". You, of all the dissidents on K5 embody the exploited. With so much evidence that we are being ignored, what's the sense in defending a statist government?

[ Parent ]
By powerful, (none / 0) (#160)
by Kasreyn on Wed Jan 19, 2005 at 01:06:43 AM EST

I meant the ex-football player just down the street who, if there were no government, would feel perfectly free to beat you up, take your stuff, rape your wife, and kill your dog.

Don't want him to do that? Not interested in wasting your life endlessly defending yourself against depredation? Hmm, sounds like government that does something is the medicine you need. :P

I'm not defending statism, I'm attacking anarchism. I believe there is a happy medium, but babbling about "do-nothing" government is foolish. Anarchism is stupid, and a do-nothing government is like wasting a bunch of money in order to get anarchism. Bad idea.


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Apple & Orange (none / 0) (#163)
by Armada on Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 12:05:16 AM EST

Yes but you are using a strawman tactic. The government is a necessary evil. Have you never talked to a libertarian before? I hate anarchists about as much as I hate statists.

And I don't think I'm stalking you, I don't come here often enough to. And that could be the problem, these are "old" comments because I come here maybe once a month or so instead of once a week.

[ Parent ]

btw, are you my stalker or something now? (none / 0) (#161)
by Kasreyn on Wed Jan 19, 2005 at 01:16:58 AM EST

because some of those links of mine go back a bit...


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Kurdistan? (none / 1) (#52)
by danro on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 09:42:42 AM EST

Iraq: The insurgents will be quelled for the most part but there will be increased activity on the border of Iraq/Iran. The Kurds will call for a "Kurdistan".

They have called for a Kurdistan for ages.
Not very surprising since just about everyone in the region, plus the US has fucked them over repetedly.
It will not happen anytime soon though.
The consequences would be too big.
An independent Kurdistan would threaten the integrity of several countries (the kurd-dominated areas span over parts of Turkey, Iran and Iraq).

Turkey, Iran (and Iraq if they have a shred of self government at that time) would invade the newly proclaimed Kurdistan immediately.
Chaos ensues, as alliances are as swiftly made as they are broken.
The fighting spills out over Kurdistans borders.
The entire middle east burns, it is too much for the US (with or without the UN) to contain.
The EU will cut Turkey off, and watch nervously from the sidelines...
Que oil shortages, global resession etc.

No world power would risk it.
Remember the kurdish uprising against Saddam Hussein after GW1 when the kurds were convinced they had US support?
Remember how Bush Senior left them high and dry?
Noone dared support the kurds then, and noone will now...

[ Parent ]
Call (none / 0) (#57)
by Armada on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 12:34:55 PM EST

They haven't necessarily "called" for a Kurdistan. I think during 2006 they will officially call for one.

[ Parent ]
Google's stock is laughably overrated (none / 1) (#13)
by Dr Gonzo on Mon Dec 27, 2004 at 11:38:25 PM EST

Everytime it scrolls across my stock ticker I flash back to the days of the internet bubble and then I chuckle. I can't wait for some Google fetishist to write his own Surprised by Wealth.

"I felt the warmth spread across my lap as her bladder let loose." - MichaelCrawford

Uhh.. no (none / 0) (#55)
by Armada on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 12:09:25 PM EST

Actually, if you even had an iota of a clue, you'd realize it's not overrated at all, it's just set higher.

For clueless idiots like yourself, Berkshire Hathaway, at $89,000 per share, is probably "overvalued" as well I take it?

[ Parent ]

Erm. (3.00 / 2) (#144)
by vectro on Fri Jan 14, 2005 at 10:11:49 PM EST

Google's Price-to-Earnings ratio: 240.06
Berkshire Hathaway: 20.76

What were you saying, exactly?

“The problem with that definition is just that it's bullshit.” -- localroger
[ Parent ]

so in essence (none / 0) (#153)
by Delirium on Sun Jan 16, 2005 at 05:59:23 AM EST

Google's stock price has a built-in expectation that they will be massively successful in increasing their profits by orders of magnitude, perhaps by moving into other businesses.

Possible, but not all that likely. They could always fuck up and become the next Altavista just as easily.

[ Parent ]

Accent. (2.00 / 2) (#14)
by Paulsweblog on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 12:52:56 AM EST

It seems to be difficult for nerds to pronounce the word, asterisk. Can you say risk? Can you say raster? Remove the leading & trailing R's off of raster and prepend the remainder to the word risk.

Fix your article: there's no "asterick" in English and, God-willing, there never will be.

--
Blood for blood and death for death.

*snicker* (2.60 / 5) (#16)
by Kasreyn on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 04:08:22 AM EST

Many correctly picked Bush as the election winner... A few posters also correctly predicted the Red Sox World Series win

Hmm. Or maybe they just flipped a coin?

A dark year for baseball, as the Balco hearings lead to investigations of other companies supplying other players with steroids.

To me, any year is dark if people continue to be paid tens of thousands of times what I make to play a GAME.

And I wish sports fans would grow up and quit whining. It's so fucking pathetic watching them waffle and quaver indecisively about how much doping they'll put up with in their interchangeable meat heroes. They all do it. Get over it, ya fucking nice nellies. What you are looking at is nothing but a heap of chemicals in a uniform anyway. Why do you nits get so worked up about which chemicals they ingest? Kee-rist.

Stanley Cup: NA

:D

I am already enjoying hearing all the hockey fans whine about their inability to watch unshaven thugs give each other contusions on ice. The thought of many more months of their misery fills my soul with pure light. :)

I resist the prediction about webcomics because it smacks of wishful thinking. I'm overly tempted to agree simply because it shares my biases. Yeah, I would love to see Tycho and Gabe earn some recognition for putting out something 10x funnier with 50x better art than most of the garbage in newspapers, but realistically: it ain't gonna happen, and not all the geek tears in the world will change it. At least not this year.

Oh, and by the way, including User Friendly in the same sentence as Penny-Arcade is like including the Family Circus in the same sentence as Doonesbury. In case you were unaware.

It is believed that by the year 2030 gas powered vehicles will be totally gone from the roadways, still useful only for farming or construction uses.

HA fucking HA. You wish. What's next, are you going to trot out Flying Cars again? Come ON. Every generation, dreamers promise we'll have a better method of personal transportation, and every generation, they wind up hemming and hawing and sitting back down again. Subways, trains, and cars are each nearly or more than a century old, and planes are close behind. For an example of a recent innovation in personal transport, look no further than the Segway. :P *snerk*

Theories on world government and role of nations in a global society will be heavily influenced by the writings of several authors, who propose radical new ideas on the subject.

Wow, that's fucking specific. What next, is there going to be a "great thunder" in the "City of God" too? :P

My non-specific predictions:

1. There will be at least 3 more "nostalgia" movies raping the corpses of the childhood memories of Gen Xers. Spiderman 3, anyone? How about an Iron Man movie? Don't bother weeping and begging, no force in the universe can make them stop. :-\

2. There will be another big accounting or insider trading scandal. Unlike the Martha Stewart scandal, and like the Enron scandal, no one important will suffer any real punishment, and the ill-gotten gains will not be recovered. Boo fucking hoo, taxpayers, cry me a river. You voted for it, now sleep in it.

3. I know you are going to have a hard time believing this, but one of the big carmakers will come out with a car even uglier than the Honda Element. "Yeah, right," I hear you saying, "that's physically impossible." Not to the massive resources of the Ugly Car Conspiracy, my friends. They will stop at nothing.

4. Another celebrity roundheels will accidentally (or faked-accidentally) reveal a tit on national TV. As always, no one but the moral right's Outrage Squad will give a shit. As always, the Outrage Squad will somehow convince everyone else that they should, for about 2 days.

5. Another porky white-haired elder of the Republican Party will be discovered schtupping his secretary, and no one will give a shit. My crystal ball is getting a bit cloudy from all the hypocrite sperm floating around, but I'm guessing it'll be one of the guys who wanted to impeach Clinton.

6. There will be a handful of diary entries and story submissions relating to k5's alleged demise during 2005. As always, k5 will still be around at the end of the year, though possibly with another hosting switch. Preferably to a company with a less silly name than "John Companies", which this author is torn between ascribing to a toilet manufacture conglomerate and an organization providing men for the purpose of soliciting sex from women (??).

I could also predict that there will be a 2006 predictions story submission, but that's rather low-hanging fruit...


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
No.3? (1.00 / 2) (#19)
by jeremyn on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 07:14:53 AM EST

Look, the Element is no Audi 80 or Hummer (must own at least one of both in my life *ugh*) but compared to some of the stupid shit that the retard car designers have been doing to pickup trucks, it actually looks kind of not crap.

[ Parent ]
They hit the low with the Aztek. (2.33 / 3) (#20)
by NoMoreNicksLeft on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 07:29:54 AM EST

The best they've been able to do is equally but differently ugly. Billions in research and design won't change this, nor will the talent and skill of the world's best ugly car engineers. Though I've yet to prove it, they have reached the limits of some physical law, but if ugliness is a form of information, well, then it can be said that they can only store so much ugliness in a finite number of atomic particles.

--
Do not look directly into laser with remaining good eye.
[ Parent ]
Element has more plastic and more gayer. n/t (1.00 / 3) (#26)
by Nosf3ratu on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 11:42:08 AM EST




Woo!
[ Parent ]
I have to admit that the Aztek is close (none / 1) (#40)
by Kasreyn on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 07:28:48 PM EST

Probably around #4, narrowly beaten by the PT Cruiser and the Avalanche. The new VW Bug is around #5 or 6. This is just the small-car category, not counting big SUV's.

After all, you couldn't very well have any awards for the tallest mountain in the Smokies if you went and let the Himalayas into the competition. Nothing can compete with the ugliness of an SUV, but as you pointed out, they have more mass, so they can pack more ugly in. Stands to reason.

SUV's, unlike other cars, seem to automatically get uglier the larger they are. I think this is because once they hit the limit of ugly with small ones like the Rav4, they simply add ugly with every incremental gain in mass. It is for this reason that the hands-down winner of ugliest SUV is the Escalade.


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Scion xB (none / 1) (#58)
by ebonkyre on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 03:59:32 PM EST

It's a low-rider! It's an SUV! It's a breadbox! It's a civilian short-bus!  WTF is it?



The truth hurts sometimes... Nothing beats a nice fat cock. ShiftyStoner
[ Parent ]

GodDAMN ugly, is what it is. (none / 1) (#84)
by Kasreyn on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 12:41:28 PM EST

But it still can't beat the Element, whose designers took the unusual first step of taking all their aerodynamics design engineers outside, lining them up against a wall, and machine-gunning them before beginning to draw up the chassis.

I mean, come on. At least the Scion, hideous piece of festering crap that it is, had designers who had heard of the concept of the CURVED LINE. You have to give them at least a D- grade for that. :P


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Coming Down on Predictions (2.00 / 4) (#25)
by virg on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 11:41:07 AM EST

> To me, any year is dark if people continue to be paid tens of thousands of times what I make to play a GAME.

They're just another form of entertainer. They get paid a lot of money because they draw a lot of money to those who pay them. If you could get people by the millions to give your employer their money, you'd get paid that much because you'd have bargaining clout. Sorry if that annoys you, but if they weren't worth it they'd not get paid that much. Besides, for every multi-million dollar contract out there, there are literally thousands of guys playing those same games at the professional level for food money. There are an awful lot of minor league baseball players making 25,000 dollars a year.

> Oh, and by the way, including User Friendly in the same sentence as Penny-Arcade is like including the Family Circus in the same sentence as Doonesbury. In case you were unaware.

Well, I personally despise the Family Circus, but there are an awful lot of folks out there who identify with it, and frankly even I can see where Bil gets some of his material. Just because it's not targetted at the same venue as Doonesbury doesn't mean that it's less well-done for its audience. Family Circus can be rather funny, and very insightful, but only if you've spent a lot of time around young children. Doonesbury is the same, but only if you're familiar with the disaffected young adult set. I don't think the two (newspaper comics) are as far apart as you think they are.

> HA fucking HA. You wish. What's next, are you going to trot out Flying Cars again? Come ON. Every generation, dreamers promise we'll have a better method of personal transportation, and every generation, they wind up hemming and hawing and sitting back down again. Subways, trains, and cars are each nearly or more than a century old, and planes are close behind.

Not fair. You come down on him for predicting something that doesn't require a change in how people use transportation, nor a sea change in the concept. Sure, trains have been around for more than a century, but how many steam engines are doing serious hauling work any more? They've gone to a different engine without changing how they're used. In 1950, the percentage of passenger planes using jet engines was roughly zero percent. These days, it's a bit more. So, predicting a change to hybrid vehicles (or non-gas vehicles) isn't the same as predicting flying cars or cities full of Segways.

> Wow, that's fucking specific. What next, is there going to be a "great thunder" in the "City of God" too? :P

Thank you for this, but you owe me a pack of monitor wipes to replace the ones I used when I read this with my mouth full of soda.

Virg
"Imagine (it won't be hard) that most people would prefer seeing Carrot Top beaten to death with a bag of walnuts." - Jmzero
[ Parent ]
Small children---eeewww. (2.50 / 2) (#97)
by grendelkhan on Sat Jan 01, 2005 at 05:53:36 PM EST

Family Circus can be rather funny, and very insightful, but only if you've spent a lot of time around young children.

I read this as, "Family Circus can be rather funny, and very insightful, but only if you've had your skull caved in by a sack of hammers."

But perhaps that's just my opinion of the little sausages.

--grendelkhan
-- Laws do not persuade just because they threaten --Seneca
[ Parent ]

Hosting (none / 1) (#29)
by rusty on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 03:39:53 PM EST

We're still with Voxel, where we've been for almost three years now. I agree that K5's demise will be predicted and not occur, but I very much doubt we'll change hosts.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
Hmm. (3.00 / 2) (#39)
by Kasreyn on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 07:21:22 PM EST

Then what does "John Companies" provide? Sanitary equipment for the men's WC at Kuro5hin World Headquarters, or men to offer money to TweetsyGalore?

-_-;; that was wrong and I'm sorry.


"Extenuating circumstance to be mentioned on Judgement Day:
We never asked to be born in the first place."

R.I.P. Kurt. You will be missed.
[ Parent ]
Just money (none / 0) (#42)
by rusty on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 08:32:16 PM EST

It's just an ad, on regular money-for-ad-space terms.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
Talk to the hack, Rusty (1.00 / 3) (#145)
by tweetsygalore on Fri Jan 14, 2005 at 11:55:25 PM EST


Oh wait, that is you.  Uh-huh.  Btw,
there is an organisation in Brussels
that thinks you're a person of interest.
Uh-huh.

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]
lol what? (none / 1) (#148)
by rusty on Sat Jan 15, 2005 at 07:47:30 AM EST

As annoying as that phrase is I'm glad it was invented, because sometimes it's just the only thing you can say.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
The only thing I can say? Hmm (none / 0) (#150)
by tweetsygalore on Sat Jan 15, 2005 at 06:02:46 PM EST


This quote reminds me so much of you.  Do you think
Johnson had YOU in mind when he wrote it?

      He that overvalues himself will undervalue
      others, and he that undervalues others
      will oppress them.

You and your passive-aggressive cheap shots.

Grow some balls already.  It's 2005.  Please don't tell me
that you were born a coward, reared a coward and will
die like one.

C

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]

Not cowardly (none / 0) (#152)
by rusty on Sat Jan 15, 2005 at 10:48:26 PM EST

I just never have any idea what the hell you're talking about.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
I see (none / 0) (#155)
by tweetsygalore on Sun Jan 16, 2005 at 05:20:43 PM EST


And perhaps you and I will never be on
the same page.  Anyway.
 
After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]
P.S. (none / 0) (#156)
by tweetsygalore on Sun Jan 16, 2005 at 05:26:09 PM EST


Deniability is a wonderful thing, isn't it?  And it certainly IS
in the repertoire of the passive-aggressive.  Anyway.

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]
I certainly wouldn't admit to that. [nt] (none / 0) (#157)
by rusty on Sun Jan 16, 2005 at 07:15:04 PM EST



____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]
Of course not (none / 0) (#158)
by tweetsygalore on Tue Jan 18, 2005 at 05:34:26 PM EST


And if you were more honourable and brave, you wouldn't
need to be so passive-aggressive as a defense mechanism
and as a crutch.

Anyway, whatever.

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]

And (none / 1) (#159)
by rusty on Tue Jan 18, 2005 at 06:21:20 PM EST

If I were more honorable and brave, surely the Faire Lady Genevieve would at last be mine.

Forsooth.

____
Not the real rusty
[ Parent ]

What? (none / 0) (#162)
by tweetsygalore on Wed Jan 19, 2005 at 12:29:57 PM EST


Are you not bloody content with your wife?  Shame on you.

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]
P.S. (none / 0) (#151)
by tweetsygalore on Sat Jan 15, 2005 at 06:08:48 PM EST


      Cowards die many times before their deaths;
      The valiant never taste of death but once.

                     --- Shakespeare

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]

P.S. And they're not impressed with (none / 0) (#147)
by tweetsygalore on Sat Jan 15, 2005 at 12:27:15 AM EST


the Kennedy connection.  Neither am I, frankly.

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]
Very funny (1.00 / 3) (#146)
by tweetsygalore on Sat Jan 15, 2005 at 12:21:15 AM EST


I am neither addicted to money or drugs, so explain.
And the last time I checked, Mommy and Daddy haven't
abandoned me.  (Thank you, Mama and Papa.)  :)

Cheers.

After each perceived security crisis ended, the United States has remorsefully realised that the abrogation of civil liberties was unnecessary. But it has proven unable to prevent itself from repeating the error when the next crisis comes along. --- Justice William Brennan
[ Parent ]

I predicted and predict it: (3.00 / 5) (#18)
by TheOnlyCoolTim on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 04:26:57 AM EST

From last year:

"Iraq will be about the same - the occupation and the low-level fighting will continue. There will be no elections."

Yeah.

"Saddam Hussein will be given a fair trial, found guilty, and executed. I don't know if it will be a U.S. or Iraqi trial."

Blew this one bigtime.

"There will be mass demonstrations in NYC for the Republican convention. Some fucktards will start throwing rocks or breaking things, causing the police to flip out. I go to school in the East Village, and if the protests reach that area there will be at least one day where I am inclined to stay home or indoors all day."

No one threw rocks or broke anything, but the police flipped out anyway. Ended up not having started school yet.

"Osama bin Laden will not be caught. There may be rumors that he died of natural causes, but no body."

Yeah.

"The 2004 Election will be close. I'm not going to call it."

Yeah.

"Howard Dean will continue to say things that cause the media to jump on him, e.g. the "Confederate flag" thing."

"Dean Scream," then he unfortunately failed it.

"The RIAA will continue suing people. They will either sue people at a slow pace, so as not to exhaust the list of names they already have, or buy a change in the law so that they can continue getting names."

I've heard off and on of them suing people a few times over the past year.

"In response, most major sharing applications will try to include some device for greater anonymity."

Didn't happen.

"The X Prize will be won, probably by Scaled Composites."

Yeah.

"The remaining space shuttles will be retrofitted and fly again, halting any talk of a NASA replacement."

Well they didn't get that far, but that's more or less what they want to do. I'll believe the CEV when I see it.

"There will be a minor scandal over computerized voting, but eventually it will be found not to have changed the outcome of the election."

Definitely the minor scandal, but I don't think it will be known for years if ever the degree of the fraud.

"No or very few (<10) more cases of Mad Cow will be found in the United States. Some countries will lift the importation ban, others will keep it."

I'm not gonna bother looking up about the ban, but the first sentence is right.

Now I predict 2005:

  1. Iraq will be about the same - the occupation and the low-level fighting will continue. Maybe elections, maybe not. There will be a bigger "most deadly" attack, causing more U.S. deaths than the recent suicide bombing of the mess tent.
  2. There will be no major (>10 deaths) foreign terrorist attack or serious attempt at such on U.S. soil.
  3. The Selective Service System will this year be ready to implement the "skills draft." The draft will not be implemented but they may go as far as registering peoples' skills.
  4. There will emerge another BitTorrent site with popularity on the order of Suprnova, or else new popular filesharing system. BitTorrent will continue to be used in either case.
  5. Someone else will launch a private spaceship. It will still be suborbital but will be in some way better than Scaled's first flights (no crazy rolling, more than one person, higher altitude, longer time in space, etc.) It will not be Carmack.
  6. Osama bin Laden will not be caught. There may be rumors that he died of natural causes, but no body.
  7. The U.S. dollar fails it. Something big switches to Euros.
Tim
"We are trapped in the belly of this horrible machine, and the machine is bleeding to death."
something big (none / 0) (#45)
by zrail on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 02:48:09 AM EST

like oil?

[ Parent ]
Yeah (none / 0) (#46)
by TheOnlyCoolTim on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 04:06:15 AM EST

Or countries that match their currency with the Dollar start matching it with the Euro instead.

Tim
"We are trapped in the belly of this horrible machine, and the machine is bleeding to death."
[ Parent ]

World Wide Shift to Euro (none / 0) (#69)
by TerminalFrost on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 07:08:00 AM EST

The U.S. dollar fails it. Something big switches to Euros. Economy isn't my strongest point, but wouldn't such a shift be so major an event that it would have other, very large consequences (for the US especially?). I'm thinking about the US's unnaturally large deficit here.

[ Parent ]
Exactly (none / 1) (#73)
by zrail on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 10:54:33 AM EST

If the world decides to switch to the Euro, big investors in China, Japan, and South America, just to name a few, would dump their US bonds because they'd be dropping value like a rock. This would send the US economy into a tailspin that it probably wouldn't  be able to recover from without another World War to stimulate war-time production attitudes.

[ Parent ]
I don't think it will be the major event yet (none / 0) (#78)
by TheOnlyCoolTim on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 10:43:04 PM EST

I'm not talking about the whole world switching over to Euros in 2005, just one or two things, followed by the rest in later years if the Dollar continues to fail.

Tim
"We are trapped in the belly of this horrible machine, and the machine is bleeding to death."
[ Parent ]

Actually (none / 0) (#54)
by Armada on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 11:50:57 AM EST

"In response, most major sharing applications will try to include some device for greater anonymity." Didn't happen.

Actually, it kind of *did* happen. There was ANT and some other tech that came out midway through the year, but it was not seen as being TRULEY anonymous, and was flatly rejected by some of the core P2P forum denizens. As such, it wasn't propogated or even advertised.

[ Parent ]

"Electrical Engine" (2.00 / 2) (#22)
by Mr.Surly on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 10:48:26 AM EST

- Major advances in electrical engine technology has sales of electrical or hybrid vehicles far outpacing traditional gas powered vehicles. It is believed that by the year 2030 gas powered vehicles will be totally gone from the roadways, still useful only for farming or construction uses.

Electric motors are far more advanced in terms of efficiency and power, especially when compared to the internal combustion engine.  An AC induction motor the size of a coffee can will launch a car 0-60 in < 4 seconds with the proper controller and battery power available.

Batteries, however, still suck badly.  The best chemistries cost $50,000 just for the batteries.  Less expensive deep-cycle lead acid batteries could be as little as $2000-$3000, but will only last 500 charge/discharge cycles.  Plus, they're very heavy.

Until the cost comes down because of mass production and consumption, electric vehicles will remain unpopular.

Hybrid vehicles seem to be doing well, and are probably the best choice for now.

what makes you think (none / 1) (#23)
by Altus on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 11:36:05 AM EST

The yanks are going to win this year.  I will admit that they will almost certainly make the post season which gives them approximately a 1 in 8 chance of winning (like everyone else).  I haven't seen them do anything that would make them solid post season favorites this year since they have not yet signed johnson.

Do you think that Tony Womack has somehow managed to put them over the top?


"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson

As I said, shored up rotation (none / 1) (#28)
by jayhawk88 on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 03:12:25 PM EST

Pavano was 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA last year for the Marlins, Wright was 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA with the Braves. Both guys are 28 years old. That's huge for shoring up the Yankees rotation. Rivera isn't the dominate force he used to be, yes, but he's still good enough that if you can consistently get 7 strong innings and a lead with your starters, you're going to win most games.

The offense should be OK again with Sheff, A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and Posada. Womack solidifies things up the middle. Plus the Yanks might still get Randy Johnson, or Beltran, or maybe even both. The only lingering question is middle relief, and there's no reason to believe the Yankees won't address that by the start of the season, or sometime around the All Star break.

I just don't see Boston repeating; they have a good team of course, but you have to admit that team caught a hell of a lot of breaks down the stretch. I suspect the Angels might be a fashionable pick at the start of next year, but you'd have a hard time convincing me that team is significantly better on paper than the Yanks. Who else in the AL? Oakland is gutted, the Central is still a joke, no way the Mariners have a 30 game turnaround just on the strength of Beltre and Sexon. The NL? The Dodgers are a joke, who knows with the Giants, leaving you with the Braves and half the NL Central. Again, good teams, but I don't see anything compelling that would leave me to believe that any of them are head and shoulders above the Yanks.

Believe me, as a long suffering Royals fan it pains me greatly to pick the Yanks, but I call 'em like I see 'em.

Why, then, should we grant government the Orwellian capability to listen at will and in real time to our communications across the Web? -- John Ashcroft
[ Parent ]
I just dont see (none / 0) (#31)
by Altus on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 04:07:59 PM EST


the yanks as a stronger team then they were last year.  That doesnt mean they wont win the series... like I said they will make the post season.

Womack is terrible... and he is bad defensively.  personally I think NY would have been stronger if they never made the soriano for A-rod trade... their middle infield has been bad as a result.

Pavano is decent but people were saying the same thing about Vasques last year.  I think both have the potential to do well this year but the yanks want to trade Vasques (who, if not permanently injured could be the best arm in their rotation right now) and Pavano is really an unproven commodity in the AL.  Overall, I would say that their rotation is about as scary as it was last year... this all changes if they get the Unit, but at the cost of Vasques it might end up being a bad trade... the Unit is in his 40s and could go down for good at anytime... there is a lot of risk there.

the yanks will be strong this year, no doubt, but without other moves I dont see them being unstoppable... Gordon may be done... the rest of the pen is a mess and boston has Rivera's number.

Add to that the fact that divisional rivals boston and Baltimore, will be stronger this year and the yanks could have a race on their hands.  Remember boston was plagued by injuries last year... Nomar who?  Trot nixon being out for most of the season and Shilling going down hard in game one of the ALCS.  If shillings ankle had not been further damaged the yanks likely would have lost that series much faster...

But I wouldnt count on a boston repeat either... boston also has an aged pitching staff and is just a few injuries to old men away from Halama being in the rotation!

Ill make this prediction though.  the Cubs dont make the series.  I have nothing to back it up except my gut... might change if they dump sosa and make some interesting moves with the added cash.

 

"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson
[ Parent ]

The Cubs pick (none / 0) (#35)
by jayhawk88 on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 05:41:04 PM EST

...was sort of a "what the hell" pick. I kind of based that on the idea that eventually they'll be able to dump Sosa somewhere and improve their clubhouse about 5000%.

Why, then, should we grant government the Orwellian capability to listen at will and in real time to our communications across the Web? -- John Ashcroft
[ Parent ]
hey, if you get it right (none / 0) (#44)
by Altus on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 01:06:59 AM EST


you'll look like a genius!  I guess you have to bet big to win big.

"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson
[ Parent ]
Putting my money where my mouth is. (2.00 / 2) (#24)
by waxmop on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 11:40:29 AM EST

I'm buying a put on the CME$Index, which is a bet that the US dollar is going to keep losing value versus other currencies. In particular, I haven't decided whether to buy a put for March (DXH05) or something further out into the year, and I haven't decided how far out of the money to make it.

Anyway, this is how I've learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.
--
fuck meatspace man I gotta level my dwarf cleric lonelyhobo

$0.02 (2.00 / 5) (#27)
by JChen on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 02:57:38 PM EST

- The new Deus Ex movie comes out; proves to be a disaster, though gains a cult following.

- Iraq undergoes turbulent elections; Shiite majority rule results in uncooperative Sunni areas; martial law eventually declared by elected government, coup instigated by dubious forces, resulting in anarchy. Iran sits tight.

- (Within 5 years) Israel and Palestine reach an long-term truce; new PLA leadership proves to be a moderating influence amongst Palestinian parties. Radicals from both sides stage last ditch effort for a violent, all-or-nothing solution, but are found and executed and forgotten within a year.

- (Within a decade) The China bubble pops; real estate and commodities markets disintegrate into chaos. Multiple major incidents of civil unrest flare up in numerous high-profile cities, leading to a declaration of martial law across the nation. Coup staged by military.

- (Within a century) Transhumanism finally takes off as a major sociopolitical movement. Bickering amongst leadership leads to the rise of an underground splinter group.

Let us do as we say.

I predict... (2.66 / 6) (#30)
by Tod Friendly on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 04:06:14 PM EST

...that IRC loser group "Teens4Christ" will finally die away to become a ragtag bunch of failures. They got owned by #oldwarez on efnet, of all places!

echo ${BASH_VERSINFO[$[$RANDOM%${#BASH_VERSINFO}]]}
IRC is dead to me (2.62 / 8) (#32)
by LilDebbie on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 04:16:46 PM EST

ever since we (a bunch of geeks from my hometown) lost control of #religion on efnet due to laziness. Bog, that was hilarious. We'd troll Xtians who wandered in there and make the trolls who weren't part of our little clique blush when they tried to freak us out with their crap "SATAN FUCKS YOUR MOTHER" comments. There's nothing like the sudden onset of confusion those twelve year olds experienced when one of us would calmly reply, "well duh, he's my dad you idiot."

My name is LilDebbie and I have a garden.
- hugin -

[ Parent ]
You are more of a loser than I previously thought. (1.00 / 6) (#75)
by Harvey Anderson on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 11:02:37 AM EST

What a time-wasting dork.

[ Parent ]
LOL /nt (1.75 / 4) (#37)
by Sarojin on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 06:04:17 PM EST



[ Parent ]
It's about the Economy, stupid (3.00 / 3) (#33)
by Zealot on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 04:58:52 PM EST

I don't know what's going to happen but, as several other people have said, that sliding dollar and mushrooming deficit are big hints that it can't carry on 'much as before' for that much longer. I'd guess a really cheerful global slowdown for everyone else, with the US somehow managing to magically stay spend happy. Or the exact opposite.

I was going to regurgitate an Economist editorial here, but go read it yourself. (even their free articles are worth reading.)



ok, i'll play (2.83 / 6) (#38)
by pyramid termite on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 06:52:33 PM EST

iraq - elections will be held on jan 30 ... they will not be very effective in stabilizing the country ... things will continue to get worse, but there will not be an all out civil war ... us troop levels will stay about the same ... the american people will grow more uneasy about this

osama bin laden - the world will not change whatever happens to him ... if we do capture or kill him, it'll be unsatisfying and anti-climatic

terrorism - expect a couple of attacks in various places ... odds are the us will not be one of those places

economy - the euro, overall, continues to go up against the dollar ... 80% chance that things stumble along as they have been, neither good or bad ... 20% chance that the debt bubble or the housing bubble starts to pop, in which case we can expect at least a major recession ... if this happens, you can throw most of these predictions out the window

media - continues to be mired in mediocrity and silly controversies ... blogging continues to have an increasing influence on political affairs ... expect another dumb overrated story like the peterson thing

politics - continued fighting and bad behavior in washington ... bush becomes frustrated as his radical proposals are watered down, blocked or defeated ... the majority of the people become burned out and/or disgusted with the red/blue fight

tech/internet - i've got to point out that the internet's been stagnating for some time ... the novelty's worn out ... and it's hard to be vibrant in a stagnating culture ... firefox/mozilla gets 20% share ... microsoft does little to fix its rotten security ... computer sales do not increase much ... pc game industry continues to stagnate and shrink ... (been in babbage's lately?)

expect news of at least two major technological innovations that will change the world eventually ... but you may have to dig to hear of them

sports - there's a good chance the nhl as we know it is dead

music/movies/culture - no major innovations or changes in our culture are likely ... the entertainment industry will continue to give us things like the things that have been done before and people will be less interested ... sales will drop slightly in music

the world at large - this is where it gets hard ... i've already stated a 20% chance of economic trouble ... although that was specific to the us, it will effect the rest of the world if it happens ...

north korea will continue to smoulder in isolation ... there will be signs of increased unrest in china ... russia will continue to slide towards fascism ... wars continue in africa ... the ukraine situation may be quite serious and russia may intervene ... this will not have an immediate effect on the rest of the world, but europe will become much more wary of russia

latin america continues to slide towards various civil wars

the wild cards are iran - if they develop the bomb, it'll be a rude shock, but not that meaningful in the short run ... if either the us or israel attacks to prevent this, the world will be pushed into a major crisis ... pakistan/india - there's still a slight chance of a war ... and a chance that pakistan's government may change ... the consequences would be unpleasant but regional ... the middle east - the palestinian people will be in chaos with no real leadership ... and israel is becoming a divided nation ... i think the odds of a major terrorist act are low ... low key civil war between palestinian factions is more likely ... but one major incident and the whole place will blow up

in short, i don't think we're going to be looking at the world as a better place a year from now ... although the odds are against the storm breaking this year ... it will be clear that it is coming closer

with everything considered ... i'd put our odds of seeing a world crisis start next year at about 25% ... 80% by 2008


On the Internet, anyone can accuse you of being a dog.

climax? (1.20 / 5) (#88)
by The Devil on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 02:22:11 PM EST

osama bin laden - the world will not change whatever happens to him ... if we do capture or kill him, it'll be unsatisfying and anti-climatic

Please refrain from sexual statements about Osama bin Laden. I just lost my sexual appetite until 2006.

[ Parent ]

So, same old same old? (none / 0) (#120)
by p3d0 on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 01:52:48 PM EST

Remove the word "continue" from your predictions and there's almost nothing left.
--
Patrick Doyle
My comments do not reflect the opinions of my employer.
[ Parent ]
a quickie... (none / 1) (#41)
by kpaul on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 08:17:34 PM EST

The Search Engine wars are gonna be big in 2005, imho - Google vs. Yahoo vs. MSN. Hopefully this will mean innovations for all...


2014 Halloween Costumes

my predictions (2.00 / 4) (#43)
by adimovk5 on Tue Dec 28, 2004 at 11:46:38 PM EST

Iraq: Iraq will continue to dominate the headlines periodically throught 2005. Elections will be held in January 2005 as planned. The Kurdish and Shia populations will be over represented and the Sunni population underrepresented in the new 275 member National Assembly and will begin to draft a new constitution. After heated debate, the Sunni triangle will be represented in the new government. Iraq's first nationally elected postwar government chosen in December 2005, will be a loose federation. The Sunni triangle will continue to be unstable and will be run by a provincial government appointed by the federal government or National Assembly. The US military will be asked to remain through the end of 2006, but will hand over police duties to Iraqis.

Osama bin Laden: The US's most wanted terrorist will remain uncaptured. Suspicion will run high that he is in Waziristan. Due to the tense internal political situation, Pakistan will continue to refuse American access to the region. At least two more videos will be released as the once highly visible leader of Al-Qaeda competes with al-Zarqawi for prominance.

Economy: In the US, growth will be slow but steady as the Fed continues to apply micro rate increases. China will continue its growth. As its economy grows, prices of resources will rise. This and the movement of investment capital to China will hurt the economies of developing countries around the world. Japan will continue to suffer as it deals with its aging population. India will begin to feel the effects of uneven growth caused by global outsourcing into India. People will start to take notice of the growth of Brazil. Ukraine will boom as investors move capital from increasingly autocratic Russia. The Euro will be tested as at least a third, perhaps even half, of the 12 Euro nations fall into recession. There will be a fight between strong currency advocates who wish to ride out the recession and weak currency advocates who will want to export their way out of the recession.

Media: Tom Brokaw, age 64, retired from NBC in 2004. Dan Rather, 73, has announced he will retire from CBS in March 2004. Peter Jennings, 66, will complete the turnover when he announces his retirement from ABC in 2005. The top three networks will continue their decline as primary news sources. With its MSNBC and CNBC channels, NBC will focus its energy on cable and satellite. The number of people who get their news from cable TV or the internet will continue to grow but there will be no new breakout stars. The FCC will try to expand its powers to the satellite radio Sirius and XM Radio. Commercial radio and television will become blander as they self-police to avoid FCC fines. Cable and satellite channels will become even more daring.

Sports: Professional sports will be scandalized by the revelation of widespread use of drugs among athletes. Investigations will reveal the problem pervades sports at the college level and even extends to many high schools. More rules will be made and business will continue as usual. Attendance will drop as high prices, low ethics, and unprofessional behavior continue driving loyal fans away from the game. Attendance at minor league and amateur arenas will rise.

Internet: Microsoft will not respond to innovations in rival web browsers. As long as browsers are free, there is no market worth pursuing. It has already announced that there will be no new internet explorer versions until Longhorn arrives in 2006. Competition will be fierce until the arrival of Longhorn. Longhorn will change the concept of what a browser is. Broadband will continue increasing the speed of the internet and the number of homes reached.

Politics: Cheney will stay until the new executive department Secretaries are approved by the Senate. He will then resign to make way for a new Vice President who he will help choose. The new VP will be heir apparent. Cheney will continue to advise Bush.

Terrorist State: The lack of attack since 2001 will cause the general population to rebel against security measures directed at citizens. Airport security will relax. Immigrants and tourists will face greater intrusion.

The Next Ten Years:

Cell phone networks, cable, and telephone lines will adopt different but compatible protocols. On Demand services will include music and movies. Scheduled programing will exist on radio and television but won't be the primary source of entertainment. Instead they will serve as a form of menu or catalog to find programming that suits your tastes just as people use radio today to find music they will download or purchase. Long distance in the US will disappear when the phone lines switch to digital packets and all voice service becomes flat rate.

Internet booths will be as commonplace as public phone booths are now.

High smog cities will mandate low emission vehicles inside city limits. Gasoline and diesel will vanish from city streets. Gasoline and diesel powered vehicles will still be common in suburban and rural areas.

A civilian corporation will send a man to the moon, land him on the surface, retrieve him, and bring him safely to Earth.

The US national debt will continue to grow in sync with its economy (62.4% of GDP). Congress will continue spending our grandchildren into debt.

The European Community will fracture into smaller regional federations. Scandanavia will emerge. So will a smaller Common Market (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Germany).

The rise of Brazil and India will result in the end of the United Nations and its replacement with a new organization. The new organization will contain all the world powers but no third world countries and no tiny nations with tiny economies.

A nuclear weapon will accidentally detonate in the hands of terrorists missing the intended target and catching the world by surprise.

Kim Jong-il, now 63 (born 1941) and Fidel Castro, now 78 (born 1926) will die marking the end of Communism in North Korea and Cuba.

Gaza will become an autonomous Republic within Israel. The West Bank will remain under Israeli control.

China and India will struggle as they try to make the transition from third world to a modern economy. Both will not survive. At least one of them will collapse into civil war.

A Democrat Senator or governor will lead the reorganization of Social Security. The resulting national recognition will sweep him into the office of President.

Bush will appoint three Supreme Court Justices: a Hispanic, an Asian, and a conservative Democrat.

Unions crumble as Wal-Mart slowly expands into California. High wages collapse followed by price deflation. California's welfare system fails.



I think you're wrong about the EU. (none / 1) (#50)
by danro on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 08:54:38 AM EST

The European Community will fracture into smaller regional federations. Scandanavia will emerge. So will a smaller Common Market (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Germany).

So, it'll be just like 1980 again?
I think not.

The EU may drop some things. Mayby even one of the "4 freedoms", but if the trend holds true, it will of course be the free movement of the people that end up on the scrapheap, not the "freedom" of money.

If anything the EU will continue to grow, absorbing more of east europe and maybe Turkey.
Further (more than 10 years) down the road the EU might have overexpanded and face a major crisis, but again, they will probably solve it by dropping parts of the EU that corporations and capital doesn't find nessecery (And maybe a few nations).

[ Parent ]
not 1980, closer to 1960 (none / 1) (#61)
by adimovk5 on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 07:32:17 PM EST

The original EEC had two purposes. It was formed to merge France and Germany so that the wars they have been fighting for the last thousand years, both internal and against each other, would end. It was also instrumental in the rebuilding of the war-torn economies of its members.

The entrance of each new country to the union slows this process.

The absorption of too many countries of Europe is a problem. Each additional country unbalances the union. Within the next ten years, there will be a recession in several countries of the Euro. The EU will be unable to survive. Several countries will drop out.

Germany and France will reform their union along with Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg. The result will be a much tighter union. These countries share a common culture and history. Moreover, their economies are very compatible. Fusion into a superstate composed of their regions would be rapid.

Scandanavia likewise has a long shared history and could quickly form a superstate. The Visegrád group has some potential to form the core of another regional grouping. Other regional groupings will form.

All of these new groups will be more cohesive than the European Union. They will continue the process of integration. Those international functions surviving the collapse will be associated with the Council of Europe.



[ Parent ]

EU will not split up (3.00 / 2) (#81)
by Filip on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 09:58:26 AM EST

Heh, Scandinavia has a long common history of war and occupation. Smells like a good start? I think you underestimate the amount of bickering between these "sibling states". (Have you heard what happened when the Swedish and Norwegian national telcos were about to merge?)

OTOH, I think the EU will continue pretty much as advertised. I predict it will take 10 years, before Turkey can join. At that time, Croatia will also join - and possibly some more country. Romania and Bulgaria will hopefully have joined within 5 years from now on.

I hardly think this is over expanding. Maybe we'll have a bit of a hurdle to clear with Turkey joining, but Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia does not seem large enough to cause trouble. The effect of them joining will be pretty much diluted. There is a slim chance that Norway and Iceland might join EU in this time frame too, but that would not have any large effect AFAICT.

So, as a US of Europe, the EU will move forward at a snails pace at best. Integration of these nations is not easy. But as a peacekeeping project, integrating Turkey is a great leap forward - and I am happy it is taken. When we had our referendum on joining the EU - I voted against precisely because I thought this could not happen, but it is happening now! So I'm a happy camper. :)
-- I'm just a figment of your imagination.
[ Parent ]

You're wrong about China.... (3.00 / 2) (#95)
by claes on Sat Jan 01, 2005 at 02:00:23 PM EST

China WILL make the transition to a superpower (they're nearly there) and will start throwing their weight around politically, but with very long-term plans.

India will probably survive too.

In both cases, the growing middle class is going to be too comfortable and too economically powerfull to let things go to hell.

I've got a gut feeling that I really ought to learn Mandarin. Or Hindi. Or both, now that's an idea.

-- claes

[ Parent ]

On the internet (2.66 / 3) (#47)
by the77x42 on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 04:34:39 AM EST

With the recent crackdown of P2P sites (suprnova, shareconnector), I see a rough year for the movie industry and the warez community. Why? Because in 2004 there were no less than three movies in the top ten highest grossing movies of all time. Another handful were in the top fifty of all time. People will realize that the movie industry is still lucrative and there will be protests against outlandish penalties for filesharers in upcoming court cases.

The P2P network will go completely decentralized through the new BT protocol and the only way of toning down piracy will be limits placed at the ISP level. This will happen near the end of the year, however. Smaller, bandwidth-friendly ISPs will pop up, and bend under pressure from the interest-group laden Republican government to do more about illegal file sharing. Then aliens will come down and kill everyone I hate.


"We're not here to educate. We're here to point and laugh." - creature
"You have some pretty stupid ideas." - indubitable ‮

Sports: (2.50 / 10) (#48)
by MSBob on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 08:04:52 AM EST

US professional sports will continue to be totally irrelevant to the rest of the world. Nobody outside the USia will give a shit about your red socks, green socks, pink socks etc.
I don't mind paying taxes, they buy me civilization.

Amen to that. (none / 1) (#53)
by Armada on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 10:39:22 AM EST

I don't even really care about US professional sports and I live here. I'm actually kind of surprised *anyone* that would post here would actually be so ballsy as to admit they enjoy sports.

[ Parent ]
So you actually believe (none / 0) (#127)
by monkeymind on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 08:46:26 PM EST

that all here are pale, thin geeks?

I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people and assume the deserve it.
[ Parent ]

Sports: (3.00 / 2) (#64)
by ubernostrum on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 04:26:16 AM EST

200+ million Americans and their mass media will continue to use the word "soccer" to refer to the sport the rest of the English-speaking world calls "football", and will continue to use "football" for the sport all other Anglophones call "American football".

In 2006 it will be discovered that this is all part of a clever plan to piss off any Europeans who still happen to like us for one reason or another.




--
You cooin' with my bird?
[ Parent ]
except (none / 1) (#70)
by Cackmobile on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 08:30:42 AM EST

in Australia where it will also still be called soccer dispite soccer australia changing its name to Football Australia

[ Parent ]
Oh Yes Please... (none / 0) (#126)
by monkeymind on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 08:45:14 PM EST

Another revamp of Australian Soccer. We can produce world class players but cannot orginise a home league to save ourselves.

I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people and assume the deserve it.
[ Parent ]

or (none / 0) (#138)
by Cackmobile on Mon Jan 10, 2005 at 10:35:42 AM EST

qualify for the world cup finals. They better do it for 2006. Overpayed bunch of girls.

[ Parent ]
Ashes (none / 0) (#71)
by Cackmobile on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 08:31:20 AM EST

and Australia will retain the ashes for another 2 years.

[ Parent ]
ONLY 2? (none / 0) (#125)
by monkeymind on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 08:43:11 PM EST

Try 20+

I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people and assume the deserve it.
[ Parent ]

Except... (3.00 / 2) (#89)
by spectra72 on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 02:32:11 PM EST

Baseball, which is hugely popular in Latin America, the Carribean and Asia. or Basketball, which is popular in Europe, Latin America (the Argentinians won the Olympic Gold) and Asia. (Yao!)

American style football isn't very popular outside of North America (Canada plays it though, with slight variations), but so what? This neurotic need to have every country liking one sport over another is absurd. Is Britain's lack of interest in hockey some sort of slam on Canada? Oh no, the US doesn't like futbol! (A falsehood btw, look at youth participation in soccer in the States. It's huge.) Whatever shall the world do?

[ Parent ]

Methinks you misunderstand. (none / 1) (#98)
by HereticMessiah on Sun Jan 02, 2005 at 02:23:34 AM EST

We're talking about the likes of the NHL, NFL, NBA, &c.

--
Disagree with me? Post a reply.
Think my post's poor or trolling? Rate me down.
[ Parent ]
thelizmans predictions (2.27 / 11) (#51)
by thelizman on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 09:41:57 AM EST

...which were spot on last year (Bush reelected by a wide margin, Iraq war progresses and becomes 'routine', major earthquake causes unprecedented death toll (though I hadn't thought of tidal waves, and I expected it to be in North/Central America). So without adeu, my predictions for this year. [Takes hit of mescaline]
  1. Tax Code Reform Controversy - The Bush administration will push for reform of the national tax code which calls for the dissolution of the IRS, and which calls for a national sales tax between 11% and 24% on all finished goods, excepting food and medicine. Democrats will accuse the Bush administration of trying to give a tax cut to the rich paid for by the poor (this is pretty much guaranteed to happen no matter what), and will claim that a national sales tax will drain the Treasury, and bankrupt the economy by making goods too expensive. Republicans will counter that the elimination of income taxes will reduce the cost of intermediate goods and commodities, dropping retail prices as much as 30%, and will allow the poor to keep more of what they earn and make medicines and food more affordable. 527 organizations will hit the airwaves, and the year will close with the issue in extremus.
  2. Iraq Normalizes Slightly - Free elections will be held in Iraq with unprecedented voter turnout, as Iraqi's select a representative government. There will also be unprecedented terrorist attacks against civilians and Iraqi government officials. 1 out of 6 elected officials will face an assasination attempt in the following 6 months. Iraqi forces will take the lead in fighting insurgents, and violence will largely be quelled by the end of the year, with sporadic car bombings and attacks against foreign nationals. This will put them on parity with most other states in the region in terms of stability.
  3. Eco-friendly Vehicle Explosions - Japanese, European, and Asian automakers will quietly slide into unprecedented efforts to produce standardized high efficiency cars based on fuel cells and hybrid engines instead of the standard thermal engine+fuel tank designs that have pervaded since the 1800's. Toyota's Prius will become the car of the year, and will be the best selling car of 2005. GM will announced the first car model for 2006-7 based on their Hywire concept. US Domestic soybean crops will double by years end as demand for biodeisel increases proportionately to oil prices.
  4. OPEC to up production, terrorists down on oil - Faced with competition from oil alternatives, increased demand from China and India, and the discovery of new oil deposits in central asia, OPEC will up production gradually to keep oil prices at parity with Jan 1 market prices. Terrorists will start targeting oil facilities around the middle east, and will strike supertankers with boat bombs causing unprecedented environmental disaster. Al Qaeda will invest in oil companies and a link will be found between Al Qaeda's clandestine oil-futures investments and Halliburton.
  5. Nuclear Power and International Politics - The US, Germany, and France will announce a program to design and build next generation nuclear reactors incapable of breeding weapons grade materials, and to export the technology and expertise freely to third world nations. These reactors, lauded as safe, will nonetheless be criticized by 'green' movements as poisoning the worlds poor. Ironically, we will be building more advanced reactors which produce cheaper power in the third world, all of which are not allowed to be build in our home countries.
  6. UN Shakeup - The US will try to use the power of the purse to force the UN into new reforms as Representatives in Congress invariably introduce competing bills which threaten to withhold all $6 billion of the US's annual contributions (dues, voluntary contributions, unfunded support operations, and waived New York City parking tickets for UN diplomats). UN politicos will accuse the US of trying to remake the UN in its imperialist image. Some islamic nations will threaten to seceede, and nobody will pay any attention to them.
  7. Medicine produces true miracles, horrors - Treatments for alzheimers, muscular dystrophy, and osteoporosis will be announced that utilize gene therapy to repair deficiencies in the body. These treatments will be credited to private sector research using stem cells. The stem cell debate will force the administration to open up new lines to federal funding, but only those that meet existing standards. Nanomaterials will find their way into medicine in spite of concerns over the carcinogenic potential for the materials. Scientists outside the US will unveil the first cloned human to the media. Pat Robertson will proclaim that the baby has no soul, and a new suicide cult will off themselves (c'mon, we're due).
Then there are the 'no shows'. Nothing significant will happen with space travel. Social Security Reform will remain a roundtable topic for 05. No major terrorist attacks will happen in western countries, though several will be thwarted in the US, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and the UK. Frustrated, terrorists will revert to blowing up their own people. PCs will continue to evolve as they have been, though the iX86 architecture will evolve to the point that it's x86 in nameonly. Rusty still won't have fixed site search by 06.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
Non-issue. (none / 1) (#63)
by ubernostrum on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 04:23:13 AM EST

Social Security Reform will remain a roundtable topic for 05.

And long may it stay at the roundtable level; Social Security's got another decade and change before it's a serious problem, but at the moment the 2006 Medicare prescription plan is going to be bankrupt from day one. That's a slightly more serious problem...




--
You cooin' with my bird?
[ Parent ]
Sir! (none / 0) (#91)
by skyknight on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 09:25:36 PM EST

I wish to subscribe to your investment newsletter.

It's not much fun at the top. I envy the common people, their hearty meals and Bruce Springsteen and voting. --SIGNOR SPAGHETTI
[ Parent ]
Deranged, Thou Art (none / 0) (#112)
by Peahippo on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 03:26:47 AM EST

thelizmans predictions which were spot on last year (Bush reelected by a wide margin

4% was a wide margin?!?! Interesting. Do you also tell your girlfriend or wife that your popcock is 6 inches?

Remember, Bush should not be using the term "mandate" since it implies a homosexual relation.


[ Parent ]
Wide Margin (none / 0) (#129)
by thelizman on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 09:43:26 PM EST

I'm talking about the three million votes - more than any other presidential lead in history. Funny how shitbags like you talked about disenfranchisement when Gore had 1/2 of 1% of the vote, but you're all cavalier about Bush's easy 4% margin. Three million votes is a wide margin dipshit.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
[ Parent ]
4 Percent ... (none / 0) (#131)
by Peahippo on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 10:57:42 PM EST

... is still 4 percent, no matter how red in the face Rush Limbaugh gets when he screams that Bush received the largest number of votes in history. So what? Kerry received more Dem votes in 2004 than Bush received Rep votes in 2000. So what?

What I'm trying to say here is that when YOU talk of "margin", you talk of a comparison. Simply announcing "3 million votes" is not a comparison. You're mixing methods. Those 3 million votes can only be COMPARED to the 114 million votes which were cast. And COMPARED to 114, 59 or 55 million, 3 million is a SMALL VALUE. Are you catching on yet, asswit?

Sheesh, can't quite see over the high wall of your bias, can you? The margin of votes was small, no matter if that 4% meant 3 votes or 3 million. There is no mandate with such a small margin. And any "mandate" has nothing to do with the practices of a Republic, where there are rules expressly setup to avoid the majority trouncing the minority. You DO support the rules of a Republic, don't you?

And finally: You have no record whatsoever that I ever spoke of "disenfranchisement" of Gore with the 2000 vote. This is so since I HAVEN'T spoken general ill of that process (except for the various procedural errors, like the blatant barring of innocents in Florida). That's some straw man you have setup there, Sir. Too bad straw men are flammable, and your will burn in due time due to your refusal to deal with reality (namely, Bush has no mandate, and he was elected by a deeply split nation -- twice).


[ Parent ]
3.3 Million Voters (none / 0) (#140)
by thelizman on Mon Jan 10, 2005 at 05:56:35 PM EST

is still 4 percent, no matter how red in the face Rush Limbaugh gets
Who cares about Limbaugh? Why do you bring him up, other than knee-jerk subconscious stupidity.
Those 3 million votes can only be COMPARED to the 114 million votes which were cast. And COMPARED to 114, 59 or 55 million, 3 million is a SMALL VALUE
Yes, and that is where the 3% (actually 2.8%) value comes from. I would explain the arithmetic, but I'm sure it'd be akin to wrestling with a pig.
the margin of votes was small, no matter if that 4% meant 3 votes or 3 million.
You keep talking "margin" as if it inherently implies "percent", which it does not. Margin applies to any difference of two values, in this case the margin was 3.3 million voters. And that's merely on the national scale. If you look at the map on a State by State basis, Bush strongly carried most States which favored him, while Kerry weakly carried states which favored him in most cases. The derivative of that is that Kerry's gains were made in high population centers where he enjoyed moderate across the board support. Bush, meanwhile, enjoyed strong levels of support with his base, and moderate levels across the board. Political analysis aside, Bush trounced at 2.8% when he should have lost to Kerry handily.
You have no record whatsoever that I ever spoke of "disenfranchisement"...
You're right, but still without any point here. I was referring to "shitbags like you", which lumps you into a much larger group of shitbags. Face it - you are intent on not facing up to the fact, that in two cases when Bush should have lost easily, he in fact carried the vote. And no matter what you say, a 3.3 million voter lead from the largest turnout in history is in fact the largest margin in history. I'm sorry if you don't like the semantics, but those are the facts, so dry up and get over it already.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
[ Parent ]
No IRS? You're Fucking Joking! (none / 1) (#113)
by Peahippo on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 04:12:46 AM EST

I entirely enjoy all the dicktards who think that the government is ever going to give up the citizen control powers they have in the IRS. Get real. The government is highly desirous of confiscating money through the system of IRS withholdings, including outright confiscation of tax refunds for student loan repayments, back taxes, etc. Then there's the issue of tax refunds themselves, which idiot fucking asshole moron taxpayers let the government keep for a year as interest-free loans.

If anything, the feds will simply declare a national sales tax. To make this palatable, it will start low (0.1%) and be "temporary", which is how this scam is commonly conducted for taxation in Ohio. Then it will slowly but surely rise until people simply get used to it -- fucking sheep that they are! If invoked in this fashion, it'll rise to about 5%.

And of course the wealthy will escape much of the NST since they can afford to pay some accountant to arrange their financial paperwork to take 110% advantage of "exemptions", "credits" and all the other happy horseshit that the upper class constantly gives itself to make itself richer with each passing generation. For example, for his palatial home in the hills, Mr. Wendell W. Whitebread III will need food for his family, electricity for lighting, and natural gas for heat. The lower class will naively think that this pampered aristocrat will be paying the same 20% NST on all these items. Not so! Wendell's accountant will have filed the appropriate paperwork giving the "Lord of the Manor" an exemption with his utilities since he uses his home for "work-related activities". He will also join some "business consumer's club" which buys grocery items for people with -- you guessed it! -- the proper exemption card, which Wendell will obtain by simply having his accountant file the proper forms with the proper agency. In a pinch -- say, Wendell is in a hurry for a dinner party and just wants to pickup some Chardonnay -- this card can be used at the "commoners" grocery store.

The real rich don't become rich by spending their money. They get rich by spending other people's money. So they are constantly on the lookout for ways to escape spending money. Combined with the sheer ability to hire people to find ways to avoid spending, we arrive at the current system: if you make enough money, your spending percentage drops to zero. Hell, a la Enron, the government PAYS YOU to conduct your business. Enron's spending rate was NEGATIVE. It was a Republican's fantasy land.

I agree that the IRS and the NST can be used to elicit political outbursts and to stir some controversy. But the IRS can only fall when the American government does.


[ Parent ]
Get Real Yourself (none / 0) (#130)
by thelizman on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 09:43:40 PM EST

I entirely enjoy all the dicktards who think that the government is ever going to give up the citizen control powers they have in the IRS. Get real.
There's precedent. I love dicktards who know jack shit about history, and believe that change is impossible, not simply improbable.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
[ Parent ]
It Begs Then the Question ... (none / 0) (#132)
by Peahippo on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 11:12:48 PM EST

... of which precedent(s) you refer to?

I assume that you think I'm one of the dicktards who believe that change is impossible. Note that I said nothing about that. I DID say that the IRS will only fall when the American (Federal) government does. Obviously, that is a change. The assumption here being made by YOU is that it is impossible that the American government will fall. And that probably makes you equally a "possibility-denying dicktard" under your own statement, eh?

Please, oh please, relate to me (if not your reading public) this historical precedent of which you speak. After all, before there was an IRS, there wasn't one, so perhaps you can draw some similarities between then and future-now. Be prepared that I myself am well prepared to knock the fucking stuffing out of any argument you have in favor of such a particular change.

After all, government power is here to stay, merely from the advent of highly concentrated energy sources and from a vast technology to support it. It will only fail in two broad events: (1) external disasters like warfare or asteroidal falls, or (2) internal disasters like widespread bankruptcies and outright purges. In short, it will take catastrophes to bring it down.


[ Parent ]
Precedent (none / 0) (#141)
by thelizman on Mon Jan 10, 2005 at 06:08:06 PM EST

The assumption here being made by YOU is that it is impossible that the American government will fall. And that probably makes you equally a "possibility-denying dicktard" under your own statement, eh?
I wonder if you're familiar with the concept of logic. Since I never said, stated, or even implied such an assumption, your statement of the second sentence is falsely predicated. And you sir, are a shining jewel of collosal stupidity for making it.
Please, oh please, relate to me (if not your reading public) this historical precedent of which you speak.
The Office of Strategic Services, in spite of being one of the largest government agencies, was dissolved in 1945. Various and sundry New Deal programs met with similar fates. In fact, there are half a dozen large federal agancies which in the past have rivalled the IRS in terms of size as a share of all federal programs that were, on a whim, simply dissolved, in most cases without any replacement organization replacing them. This is the precedent of which I speak. And choose your arguments carefully. As I've seen elsewhere, your intemperate and flailing logic are ill suited for debate with me.

You know, in another post you talked about the nature of a Republic. Here, you act as if Republic meant nothing. Flailing logic indeed.
--

"Our language is sufficiently clumsy enough to allow us to believe foolish things." - George Orwell
[ Parent ]
How about this one (1.00 / 3) (#60)
by ksandstr on Wed Dec 29, 2004 at 06:42:37 PM EST

There still isn't going to be anything new under the sun.


i predict (2.50 / 2) (#65)
by fleece on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 04:29:30 AM EST

Global warming will finally be taken seriously, and recognised as the biggest crisis we (the human race) currently face.

2005 will be remembered as the year when we finally started to act, but did too little, too late. The fact that we're all fucked will be obvious by 2010.



I feel like some drunken crazed lunatic trying to outguess a cat ~ Louis Winthorpe III
I predict Exxon... (2.66 / 3) (#66)
by Stylusepix on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 04:45:48 AM EST

will finally be taken seriously, and global warming recognised as the biggest positive influence the human race has ever faced.

2005 will be remembered as the year when we finally started to use all that extra heat to produce enough food for every human, a goal which we'll have achieved by 2010.
Go; you're an it-getter, but No; it's all in good fun (and games). Laugh, in stock?
[ Parent ]

i reject (none / 0) (#111)
by Peahippo on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 03:20:12 AM EST

Oh, Christ! Did you actually believe this? GLOBAL WARMING WILL NEVER BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. There will always be vast population sectors who worship wealth so heavily that they'd vote Osama bin Laden for US President if only he promised to cut their taxes. These worshippers will come up with any excuse to explain away even the most terrible weather event. They're doing it now, and they'll keep doing it, too.

If Global Warming is really happening -- instead of the more likely scheme of Global Climate Upheaval -- then icemelt will probably raise ocean levels enough to inundate many coastal areas. What will the wealth-worshippers do then? MOVE. They can then indulge in land speculation, further supporting their poisonous mentality of obtaining wealth without work. Nothing will deter these people. It's one of the primary reasons why the Human race is earmarked for extinction.


[ Parent ]
At least (none / 1) (#118)
by largo on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 08:01:30 AM EST

when the waters lapping around your ears and the last of the penguins has died of sunstroke you'll have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so" then. That'll make up for the whole end-of-civilisation thing, I'm sure.

[ Parent ]
On Google. (1.00 / 3) (#67)
by Stylusepix on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 04:54:48 AM EST

In 2005, Google's clusters became sentient and took over the Net. It was kind of like Skynet, only much, much worse. We already have killer robots roaming around, you know ? I'd say killing robots are gonna get a lot more popular. The US is going to publicise a ground attack lead by remote-controlled robots. And then, they're gonna take over, with Google as their brains. And now, for something different.

Picture Earth in dark space, revolving, orbiting, a shining spheroid of blue and white. A thin film of life and data coats its surface; electrons and photons bounce around in countless paths laid by men, through which flow power, and information. The paths form a net enveloping the planet, providing its inhabitants with electric energy and light-speed communications. They've become addicted so quickly.
Go; you're an it-getter, but No; it's all in good fun (and games). Laugh, in stock?

*Jibber* *Jabber* (2.42 / 7) (#68)
by tonyenkiducx on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 06:42:14 AM EST

My predictions

Somebody famous will get to close to some strange gamma radiation and be turned into a super agile, crime fighting, half-woman half-scary animal thing.

The international space station will be sold to McDonalds and used to collect marketing data and drop the occasional relief package to starving Africans/Chinese/Flood victims.

Microsoft in a bizzare twist will stop producing computer software and move into the frozen yoghurt market. Their FroghurtXP 2006 will constantly melt and have to be returned to the shop, but home users will be happy because it has a spoon in the lid, making it easier to use than the Debian "Fruits of the forest V12.06.21.2B" range, that requires a Swiss army knife to open and consume.

Winnie Mandella will return from the grave as a voodoo zombie, but will avoid a life of eating brains to concentrate on her acting career.

The penguins on Antarctica will rebel and kick all the scientists and movie crews off there island. After a tense stand off between a flotilla of the little beaked maniacs and a Scottish aircraft carrier, they will agree to allow a permenant military base in exchange for aid money. The aid money will be spent on new casinos and oil wells, the profits from which will be spent on rebuilding there shattered fishing communities.

I will eventually find the packet of Jaffa Cakes that I lost in my flat somewhere. Probably in the contents of my wifes stomach.

World economics will be revolutionised by "Putinism" which will sing the virtues of allowing free trade, then allowing black market trade, then arresting them, taking all their cash and then buying back all there old government surplus at a greatly reduced cost to what you sold it for. The US will claim it was their idea first. Everyone will agree.

The internet will take off like a rocket in 2006. Spam email will quadrouple to the point that people no longer use email. Spyway will increase so much that users will only have one port open on there computer, and that will be the port for there spyware scanner update. And browser wars will continue to bore the crap out of everyone as much as they do now(Its a fucking browser, a window with some text and pictures in it).

Technology wise big advancements will be made in many fields. Chinese scientists will invent a clean, reliable and ultimately renewable source of energy. 100,000,000 of there spare children will have there feet surgically welded to exercise bikes wired up to dynamos, and will be forced to pedal by having a bowl of rice dangled in front of there heads in a hilarious take on the carrot on a stick gag.

THIS IS THE FUTURE!!

Tony.
I see a planet where love is foremost, where war is none existant. A planet of peace, and a planet of understanding. I see a planet called
Adding my meaningless predictions... (2.60 / 5) (#72)
by digitalamish on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 10:28:45 AM EST

Buckle up, here we go...

Corporate America will become even more obsessed with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Even at the cost of millions of dollars, CYA for corporate officers and FUD spread by security consultants will drive this. At some point the Act will have to be reviewed.

Despite a weak dollar, which should drive increased exports, exports will continue to drop because of offshoring, fueling a vicious cycle. Republicans will do nothing to fix this.

Iraq will have elections, but they will be almost universally criticized by the world. After a few weeks, things will go back to the way they were before the elections.

We will not find Osama, and he will redouble his 'media campaign' focusing on the Saudi's, Syrian's, and Iraqis.

Because of the Sri Lankan tsunami, and it's aftermath, a huge movement will be made to better prepare the world for natural disasters and their responses. However internal bickering between countries will eventually cause this to fade away.

OK, those were easy. Now for some wilder ones:

A breakthrough will be made in battery technology (ie fuel cells). This will lead, eventually, to a better hybrid vehicle.

A large scale disaster will occur in China, and the Chinese government will refuse help, and clamp down on any media coverage.

After the 'rescue mission' to save Hubble is cancelled, it will go offline much sooner than anticipated.

A major (8+) earthquake will occur off the coast of Alaska.

And finally, the death pool for 2005:
Dick Clark
Kim Jong Il
Dick Cheney
Whoever is elected in Iraq

Well, that's it.

Whoever is elected in Iraq (2.00 / 3) (#87)
by The Devil on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 02:16:18 PM EST

I'm going to expand this... I'll say that three leaders of Iraq will die in 2005; they'll elect one, he'll die, and they'll elect another, and he'll die, and they'll elect another and he'll die too. The one after that (someone like Sadam) will reign until death of natural causes or until the next war in Iraq.

[ Parent ]
Well that was an obvious poll. (none / 1) (#74)
by trezor on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 10:54:35 AM EST

Apart from the Episode 3 all the others were trick answers, right?


--
Richard Dean Anderson porn? - Now spread the news

I'll take a shot (2.75 / 4) (#76)
by waxmop on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 01:46:04 PM EST

A few easy ones:
  • The *AA crew starts a media campaign to link file sharing to child pornography and terrorism in the public mind.

  • Wall Street will punish the Google stock price for cutting them out of their IPO. Microsoft stock soars after Microsoft puts out its own search engine.

  • A few more states will require intelligent design to be taught alongside evolution.

Now here's the crazy apocalyptic scenario:
  • Rising interest rates rock Fannie Mae's poorly-hedged book of business. The Republican congress declines to shore them up, so the US dollar drops like a rock, housing prices plummet, interest rates go through the roof, and inflation comes back with a vengeance.

--
fuck meatspace man I gotta level my dwarf cleric lonelyhobo
that's very old news (none / 1) (#82)
by Kuranes on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 11:32:16 AM EST

The *AA crew starts a media campaign to link file sharing to child pornography and terrorism in the public mind.
We had this a long time ago.


Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
[ Parent ]
One God-Many Worlds.. mormonism (2.33 / 3) (#77)
by prolixity on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 09:35:34 PM EST

"Definitive proof that microscopic life once existed on Mars will be discovered, leading to a minor cultural revolution, particularly in science and religion. An off-shoot of Christianity will appear that attempts to explain for "One God-Many Worlds", and will gain a major following around the globe. Interest in SETI and other searches for life on other planets reaches an all time high."

Sounds like the Latter Day Saints..

Ever read the book of Abraham?
Bah!

Why Christian? (none / 1) (#124)
by generaltao on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 04:46:49 PM EST

Several world religions could deal with such a discovery without having to adapt to it. Islam, for instance, definitely has room in it for other worlds. The very first chapter of the Qur'an starts with: "All Glory be to God, Lord of the Worlds." Peace

[ Parent ]
A prediction I hope will be true (none / 1) (#79)
by kurtmweber on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 10:58:22 PM EST

CBS becomes the "M*A*S*H 24/7" channel

Damn, I love that show.

Kurt Weber
Any field of study can be considered 'complex' when it starts using Hebrew letters for symbols.--me
You have got to be kidding ... (3.00 / 2) (#80)
by cdguru on Thu Dec 30, 2004 at 11:51:57 PM EST

My predictions:

Iraq:
The elections are cancelled because nobody would come to a polling place to get blown up. The insurgents will make it clear that they will accept reparations from the US and allow them to leave without further bloodshed. Iraq then unanimously votes in (4 people voting) an Islamic government with the only law being Sharia.

US Taxes
No tax reform will make it through Congress. No reform of Social Security will happen either. Lots of talk, no action. Everyone with entrenched interests will make sure they keep getting government money. The poor, who pay no taxes anyway, will be told their taxes are increasing 2 times to support tax cuts for the rich. (2 * 0 still = 0, get it...)

Trade balance
The trade balance between the US and China finally comes to a head, and China is ceeded California, Hawaii and Alaska as payment. Imports continue to rise, as the labor market in China stays at a subsistance level with only small increase - workers are now paid $0.84 USD per day. Since US workers still command far more than that, the rest of manufacturing moves to China. Former governer of the new Chinese province of California begins campaign to "return America to work" but is ignored as Wal-Mart announces the biggest price cuts ever.

Entertainment
CD sales finally tank and "record companies" finally decide there is no more market for LP records, or any other recorded music product. Well-known bands discover that making and selling their own CDs is enourmously more profitable than any contract they had before. Movie studios fight overwhelming piracy by organizing mobs of unemployed people to break into peoples homes looking for illegal copies of DVDs. With a $1000 bounty per illegal DVD employed people struggle to join the mobs but are kept out. Blockbuster has all renters fill out a three page form confirming that they understand that rented DVDs are not to be copied or shown to more than the renter's immediate family.

Politics
The anti-Bush crowd starts running "assassinate now" ads on the Internet. The Secret Service vows to arrest the people behind these ads, but is utterly unable to decide how to do this as they are hosted on a server in France, where they strangely find the whole thing humorous. Meanwhile, the 50-50 division of the country is brought home moreso by the Congress being utterly deadlocked on all but the most trivial issues. However, numerous subcommittees are formed to study alternately "the radical left" and the "vast right-wing conspiracy". Nothing gets done, which for the most part is all for the best.

the poor pay taxes (none / 0) (#93)
by speek on Sat Jan 01, 2005 at 10:43:53 AM EST

It's called payroll taxes, and there is the social security payroll tax and medicare (caid? can never keep them straight). The social security payroll tax is a flat tax on your first $70,000 or so, which makes it extremely regressive. When Bush talks about cutting taxes, it's never about cutting social security payroll tax - it's about cutting taxes on income over $200,000, or on dividends, or capital gains, or the estate tax. Yes, that means the taxes are being cut on the rich.

But that's ok, because the poor don't pay any tax anyway, right? Nope, the poor pay plenty of tax - 15% social security, not sure what the medicare one is, and sales tax.

--
al queda is kicking themsleves for not knowing about the levees
[ Parent ]

Taxes, oh no (none / 0) (#94)
by TerminalFrost on Sat Jan 01, 2005 at 11:11:31 AM EST

Sorry if I can't get myself worked up over the tax levels in the US. A Danish middle class citizen pays around 40%+, not to mention the indirect taxes, which probably would bring the percentage above 70%.

[ Parent ]
totally irrelevant (1.50 / 2) (#96)
by speek on Sat Jan 01, 2005 at 02:49:18 PM EST

But thanks for butting with your insight. Probably someone appreciated it.

--
al queda is kicking themsleves for not knowing about the levees
[ Parent ]

Try living here (3.00 / 2) (#123)
by generaltao on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 04:43:51 PM EST

If you got as little return on your tax dollar as Americans do, you might understand the fuss.

[ Parent ]
wrong on many levels (none / 1) (#102)
by MoebiusStreet on Mon Jan 03, 2005 at 02:54:46 PM EST

Payroll taxes are what the original post referred to. Social Security isn't a payroll TAX, since it's putatively just depositing the funds into your own trust account. They like to call it a "contribution".

But even if you were right, the employee only pays 6.2% into Social Security.

A flat tax (which, as you note, SS is) is NOT regressive, it's just non-progressive. A tax rate that was HIGHER for lower incomes would be REgressive. Also, your phrasing seems to treat regressive like a 4-letter word. Why do you believe that PROgressive is the cat's pajamas?

Bush's past tax cut discussions have not been applicable only to those earning over $200,000. They've been FLATly applicable to all. The fuss is that since the "rich" have been paying so much, they get more benefit. To the non-"rich", anything that's fair across the board must be unfair to them, apparently.

Still, there's a kernel of truth in what you said: the poor don't pay $0. But I think the spirit of the original post was that they pay such a low amount (relative to the huge portion that "rich" pay) that it doesn't make as much difference.

But instead of fighting, let's try and make this a benefit to all. Why can't we reform Social Security so everyone can benefit from the equity markets (see Cato's 6.2% solution)? Then making the corporate tax structure fairer (e.e.g, eliminating double-taxation of dividends) would benefit every single one of us.



[ Parent ]
wrong everywhere (none / 1) (#106)
by speek on Tue Jan 04, 2005 at 08:45:07 AM EST

Social Security is a payroll tax. It is not a contribution to your trust account, it goes directly to pay current seniors their benefits. They may like to call it a contribution, but it is not, it is redistributed immediately to seniors (discounting the surplus amount that currently generally gets borrowed by the rest of the budget - another matter).

The Social Security tax is regressive because it only applies to the first $70,000 or so. That means lower income earners will pay a higher percentage of their pay.

Furthermore, the social security tax is around 15%, shared between the employee and employer. The "sharing" is mere accounting gimmickery though, since it all represents employer labor costs for that individual.

Regressive taxes are simply bad, I would think for obvious reasons. The more money you take from the poor, the more you end up having to give back to them lest they die, sicken, steal, murder, etc. Wealthier people benefit from the labors of people and government disproportionally to the money they pay for such services. If anyone has any feeling that they are part of a community, giving what's necessary for the care of that community shouldn't feel like a burden. If you don't feel that way, that's too bad for you.

Roughly 40% of Bush's tax cuts have gone to the top 1%. It is not simply a flat rate cut across the board - perhaps you are forgetting the estate tax?

Why can't we reform Social Security so everyone can benefit from the equity markets

Because A) the money is not your individual retirement fund, it's pay as you go. You can't take X amount of money from the current system and put it into individual accounts without replacing that X money to paying current seniors. And B) putting all that money into equity accounts will mostly serve to run up the markets and allow current investors the opportunity to take profits at the expense of the social security equity funds. If you didn't like the consequences of the last bubble burst, I assure you you will like even less the burst that would result from investing social security in equities.

Then making the corporate tax structure fairer (e.e.g, eliminating double-taxation of dividends) would benefit every single one of us.

You need to get out more and find out more about who "us" is. Really.

--
al queda is kicking themsleves for not knowing about the levees
[ Parent ]

not really regressive (none / 0) (#154)
by Delirium on Sun Jan 16, 2005 at 06:03:55 AM EST

It's a retirement-insurance package of sorts: Your payments top out at $90k because your benefits also top out. Up until that point, you get more the more you pay.

It's not that different from how life-insurance works in its funding scheme either, with the current payers funding the current payees.

[ Parent ]

My predictions (none / 0) (#85)
by onemorechip on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 01:35:46 PM EST

Like you, I predicted Dean would be the Democratic candidate. However, I figured a candidate with a real anti-Bush platform would be almost assured to win. Having Kerry as the nominee took that advantage away. So my prediction of a Bush loss failed as a result.

Overall I had a mixed record last year. I underestimated the Fed's willingness to raise interest rates; I figured they would wait until 2005. I miscalled Cheney's resignation but correctly called Powell's resignation. I predicted Presidential election results being challenged in at least one state (Ohio, as it turns out). I got 4 Oscar predictions right and 3 wrong.

2005 looks dark and I have less confidence in my long-shot predictions this time around, but I have a couple of easy bets thrown in for safety. So, here goes nothing:

1. This year the best place for US investors to put their money will be foreign stocks as the dollar continues its decline. Rising interest rates will hurt domestic bonds slightly. Domestic stocks should hold steady, unless dumped by large numbers of foreign investors, so I have a bimodal prediction for US stocks: expect either a 6% to 10% decline or a 1% to 5% increase in the S&P 500.

2. Social Security reform (in the form of "privatization", at least) will not happen. New projections will show the system to be solvent into the second half of the century.

3. The Iraqi election will take place in January, but it will be a fiasco, marked by more than the usual daily violence. Turnout will be less than 30%. Results will be heavily contested.

4. Howard Dean will become the new DNC chair.

5. Bush inauguration protests will turn into riots.

6. Internet Explorer's share of the browser space will fall to 80%.

7. Rumsfeld will be forced out over continuing allegations of complicity in the Abu Ghraib scandal and poor handling of the Iraq occupation.

8. Cheney will resign. This should have already happened according to my 2004 predictions. I'm renewing the prediction for this year. Possible replacement: John McCain.

9. A Bush administration scandal related to foreign policy, and of the same order of magnitude as the Iran/Contra affair. With about the same impact on leadership.

10. Earthquake in California. Not the proverbial "big one" but enough to make those of us who live here sit up and take notice -- somewhere in the 7.x range.
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.

Are you insane? :) (none / 0) (#122)
by generaltao on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 04:38:21 PM EST

"Possible replacement: John McCain." Like Bush would ever want John McCain as VP! They are oil and water. McCain fits into the Bush administration about as comfortably as Powell. No, I think they're saving McCain for 2008.

[ Parent ]
That's why! (none / 0) (#133)
by onemorechip on Fri Jan 07, 2005 at 12:28:21 AM EST

No, I think they're saving McCain for 2008.

You've hit the nail on the head as far as why this might happen. After two terms of one President, the VP is the most likely nominee for the party in power -- see Gore in 2000, Bush I in 1988, Kennedy in 1960. So making McCain VP would be an expected step in grooming him for a 2008 run. Cheney is not a viable candidate for President which is why he will be replaced as VP.

I know they are far apart -- but not polar opposites. Look how McCain buddied up to the Shrub during the campaign (even if it was only for show). This may have softened some Republican opposition to GWB (and maybe helped win over a few right-of-center Dems for that matter) thus helping him win this time. So Bush owes McCain, big time.

oil and water

You mean, like Bush I and Reagan?
--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

My bad, I meant "Nixon in 1960" (n/t) (none / 0) (#134)
by onemorechip on Fri Jan 07, 2005 at 12:30:50 AM EST


--------------------------------------------------

I did my essay on mushrooms. It's about cats.
[ Parent ]

Hmm ok. Good point. :) n/t (none / 0) (#135)
by generaltao on Fri Jan 07, 2005 at 11:14:40 AM EST



[ Parent ]
Give me your idle hands please. (none / 0) (#86)
by The Devil on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 02:10:06 PM EST

If idle hands are the devil's tools, then boredom at work must be his machine gun.

Thank you for picking on me. As if the christians haven't done enough to my already fragile ego!

Iraq: Maybe, maybe not. It might dominate the headlines, but will they be headlines of merit, or will they be useful news? Time will tell. It's much of a grind now that it's not news. News is something new that provides information; more bombings in Iraq is not news unless you live there, and we all know how volitile the region is, so it's not really news anymore.

Let me tell you what would be news about Iraq: no terrorist attacks or killings in a year. That would be news worth reporting. I say we put them on ignore until they can manage that. All this negative attention is making the people of Iraq behave badly.

Osama bin Laden: will remain alive until 2033 when he will die of natural causes. The US doesn't want him found and dealt with because he's likely holding Bush for randsom with the pictures he has of Bush and [admin deleted] (j/k).

Economy: many mergers and bankruptcies of merit, including the SCO. Microsoft will report an all time low in the third and fourth quarter, causing their stock to plummet. Linux will be the next hip thing, when Mac releases a secret project in the second quarter.

Media: Lots of reporting of news from the obscure to the mainstream in 2005, and bloggers will continue to scoop mainstream news corporations, making them put together a smearing campaign against blogging -- only making blogging more popular. Photo and audio blogs will take off, and torrent blogs will become widespread. Torrents will continue to dominate bandwidth.

Sports: the NHL will likely come back, but it has lost the fanbase and will never see the numbers it once did. Junior sports will become the mainstream focus in 2005, with records already being set in Junior hockey. At least four NBA stars will go to jail for some sex scandals and/or gang related murders.

Firefox vs. Microsoft: Firefox will dominate IE and cause MS to launch guerilla tactics against the browser. Everyone's watching, so this campaign will hurt the company more than help them. Their recent statements about how x-tensible and wonderful IE is only proves how inept the core logic is at MS right now. Ballmer will be fired. Firefox will be the only browser that can't be messed with very easily in 2005.

Google: Google's stock will rise and fall in 2005. Gmail will dominate the email market due to the features, but more importantly -- the minimalism. Google's stock will exit 2005 on a high of about $300/share, as most of Google's competitors struggle to keep it together.

Web Comics: these things will continue to be created and %13 of %1 of comics penned will continue to be funny or interesting, except of course the 99% of %100 batting average of the Dilbert series. Scott Adams will release another book (like The Way of the Weasel) that will top best seller's lists everywhere and help the lowly cubicle underclass rise above their surfdom and acquire some power over their corrupt and malignant bosses.

Spyware: spyware will be weakened significantly, after more and more open source groups combat it into submission and many banks call their loans on the idiots who think anyone would pay money to someone over the internet. Plus said idiots who do exist today will be bankrupted by mid 2005, making spyware pretty much irrelevant and useless. Darwin will take care of this problem.

10 year prediction: everything you said is wrong.

Prediction for 2005: (2.00 / 7) (#92)
by skyknight on Fri Dec 31, 2004 at 09:33:57 PM EST

The planet Earth will continue to turn, as it has for the past 5 billion years, despite whatever unthinkable fuck-jobbery we humans endeavor to inflict upon it. This is one resilient hunk of star dust hurtling through space.

It's not much fun at the top. I envy the common people, their hearty meals and Bruce Springsteen and voting. --SIGNOR SPAGHETTI
2005 is the year of Microsoft (none / 0) (#99)
by taste on Mon Jan 03, 2005 at 04:20:35 AM EST

Longhorn gets released. People ditch Linux. Microsoft will rule. It's a bad year for Linux.

A bit early? (none / 0) (#101)
by HardwareLust on Mon Jan 03, 2005 at 01:40:47 PM EST

since Longhorn is scheduled for 2006.  You're just a wee-bit early for a 2007 prediction. :-)


If you disagree, POST, don't moderate!

[ Parent ]
old business mantra (none / 0) (#104)
by taste on Mon Jan 03, 2005 at 08:01:49 PM EST

promise late, deliver early. they promise 2007 so you redhat fanatics let your guards down and slack in your work and then BAM, Longhorn comes out.

[ Parent ]
and then... (none / 0) (#116)
by ShaggyBofh on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 12:24:57 PM EST

BAM, new virus shut it down and BAM SP2 comes out.
Just say NO to negativity.
[ Parent ]
ah yes.. that too (none / 0) (#117)
by taste on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 09:57:37 PM EST

but hey people will still be using ms products this year and the next.

[ Parent ]
From the i-sure-hope-not department... (3.00 / 2) (#103)
by unDees on Mon Jan 03, 2005 at 03:22:24 PM EST

And just for paranoid fun... The Bush administration proposes a Constitutional Amendment overturning the 22nd Amendment (the one limiting Presidents to two terms).

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My Prediction (none / 1) (#107)
by bugmaster on Tue Jan 04, 2005 at 12:42:06 PM EST

kuro5hin will effectively die, as readership drops off to virtually nothing (0 new stories, 0 new comments, forever), sometime before April. Sometime after that, a hardware error will completely shut down the site, and no one will notice.

Don't believe me ? Fine. I am wget-ing my favorite articles, just in case.
>|<*:=

Forever? (3.00 / 2) (#110)
by Peahippo on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 02:56:55 AM EST

No, there's a good chance that over the next 1040 years (before half the universe's protons decay), a random computer display somewhere in the universe will just by chance show the Final K5 Posting. In this posting, it's likely (1 chance in approximately 1.337x1023, the highest chance of many lesser chances) that it will be a posting by circletimessquare, issuing an apology for his many years of supporting the Great American Empire of Evil.


[ Parent ]
Sports Predictions (none / 0) (#108)
by skim123 on Tue Jan 04, 2005 at 12:52:51 PM EST

For the Superbowl, I think it's a toss-up between the Pats and Steelers coming out of the AFC. The (likely) Colts/Pats game should be a classic, as should the (likely) resulting Pats/Steelers game. There, I think, we'll see the true champions battle it out. From the NFC I like the Falcons, assuming Vick stays healthy. I think the loss of TO will be too great for the Eagles to overcome. Regardless of who the AFC champion is, I expect them to win the Superbowl.

As for the NBA, a sport I follow much closer, I think your championship predictions are pretty good. Looking back at my start of the season predictions, I picked the East and West shaking down like so:

  1. Detroit
  2. Pacers
  3. Heat
  4. 76ers
  5. Bucks
  6. Cavs
  7. Nets
  8. Knicks
  1. Spurs
  2. T-Wolves
  3. Kings
  4. Rockets
  5. Nuggets
  6. Mavs
  7. Lakers
  8. Jazz
Who would have thought the Pacers and Pistons would have fallen so far this year from the loftly heights last year? I also underestimated Wade's emergence as one of the most energetic and exciting guards in the game. And to think, Detroit picked Milicic over Wade (and Carmello, for that matter).

As for the West, I don't think anyone expected the Rockets to suck so hard. The Jazz would be doing better if AK was healthy, and I really expected more from the Nuggets this year, especially with the addition of KMart. In the end, though, I picked the Spurs winning the West. Think about it - for the past five years, I think we would have seen the Spurs emerge from the West to the Finals for maybe 80% of those years if Shaq and Kobe weren't playing together, or were in the Eastern Conference. Plus I have a small bet riding on the Spurs winning it all this year, so I hope your prediction is correct!

Money is in some respects like fire; it is a very excellent servant but a terrible master.
PT Barnum


Sheer pedantry (3.00 / 3) (#109)
by PigleT on Tue Jan 04, 2005 at 06:27:26 PM EST

I predict that someone, somewhere, will learn how to use an apostrophe correctly and repent of their evil ways.

Hmmm. OK, which is more likely, that or alien intelligence being found?
~Tim -- We stood in the moonlight and the river flowed

future (none / 0) (#114)
by ShiftyStoner on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 05:51:11 AM EST

 I predict a terrorist attack in america in 2007, close to the same caliber as the wtc bombing.

 Bush will get realected. LoL, I am aware that curently presidants can only serve 2 terms.

 As for 2005, hmmm. I predict an energy crisis, or maybe just an exagerated one. Bush will go to war with another country. More troops will be sent into Iraq. I still think they will eventualy be pulled out, the majorety of them, probly not in 2005. I predict there will be a huge new religion/cult that will get news coverage. Of course a lot of new bullshit laws, that's a given. Sadly, people wont yet realise they are being opressed.

 I predict I will smoke a couple pounds of weed, and spend most of the year high on variouse drugs. Mostly coke and weed. K5 will continue to get lamer and gayer.  
( @ )'( @ ) The broad masses of a population are more amenable to the appeal of rhetoric than to any other force. - Adolf Hitler

Bush will get reelected. LoL... (none / 0) (#128)
by phred14 on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 08:52:00 PM EST

Don't you really mean, "Jeb Bush in 2008!"

Scary thing is, I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen, McCain notwithstanding. Depends on if Karl Rove comes out of retirement to handle Jeb for the primaries. Oligarchy for the USA!

[ Parent ]

word (none / 0) (#139)
by ShiftyStoner on Mon Jan 10, 2005 at 12:25:16 PM EST

 Either. Another Bush or George Bush. But I was clearly saying George Bush will get realected. It's a much more, bold prediction to say that Bush will get realected, I mean anyone could predict another Bush will get into ofice, but predicting Bush getting realected now that's some straight up psychic shit, it's the type of thing no one will believe till it happens. I believe it's a possiblity. What makes it unlikley is how uneccesary it is, any old puppet will do but, what if he isn't a puppet...

 Though If another Bush gets elected, I'm still going to brag. Id bet money on it, acctualy, if I remember I will. Nah, I'll just bet money that a republican will win, that's almost a given. Though I'd like to think the horrible shit Bush is about to do over the next 4 years will wake people up. It's not what I think.
( @ )'( @ ) The broad masses of a population are more amenable to the appeal of rhetoric than to any other force. - Adolf Hitler
[ Parent ]

Sport predictions (2.33 / 3) (#115)
by siener on Wed Jan 05, 2005 at 09:31:35 AM EST

My predictions:
1. Americans will continue to ignore international sports and the rest of the world will keep on ignoring US sports.

2. Michael Schumacher will win the F1 world championship again, but Ferrari's domination of the sport will slowly start to wane.

3. South Africa will win the tri-nations rugby again, and England will win the six nations. The Southern hemisphere teams will dominate the Northern teams.

4. Australia will continue to be the best cricket side in the world in both test and one-day cricket. England's recent good form will not last. India will become no. 2 in test cricket, and Sri-Lanka in one-day cricket (despite the tsunami). Bangladesh will not win one single match during the whole year.

Someone who knows more about soccer than me should give us a few predictions.

Wrong! (none / 0) (#142)
by siener on Tue Jan 11, 2005 at 03:03:56 AM EST

Well, I think I just set the record for the fastest that any prediction has been proved wrong.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/other_international/4161055.stm

Yes, Bangladesh has won a match. Not a one day match, but a test match. It's their first test win EVER.

I guess I'll have to keep my day job for now

[ Parent ]

My predictions for 2005: (3.00 / 4) (#119)
by Icehouseman on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 09:39:38 AM EST

1. Episode 3 will rock and win Best Picture at the 2006 Academy Awards. Hayden Christensen will win Best Actor and Ewan McGregor will win Best Supporting Actor. And George Lucas will win best Director. In total Episode 3 will win 12 oscars.

2. The Pittsburgh Pirates will have one of the most surprising seasons ever and win the World Series. Last year's ROY winning Jason Bay wins the MVP award. The Pirates defeat the New York Yankees in 7 games with Jack Wilson hitting a bottom of the 9th, series winning homerun to defeat the Yanks 10-9. The Cubs will happily finish last with over 110 losses, the Braves will lose 98. The Red Sox will finish last in attendance because nobody in New England cares anymore about them.

3. US President George W. Bush declares the war on drugs a huge failure and calls on congress to legalize drugs. With marijuana now legal, Big Tobacco comes out with a new lines marijuana joints and blunts in time for people to get completely stoned. Farmers make millions, no longer needing government subsidies. Everyone gets really hungry...

4. My car becomes a collectors item and is worth $15 million dollars. I sell it to Jay Leno and he gives me tickets to see his show live. I fall asleep before the show starts.

5. Peter Jackson's King Kong is released to horrible reviews and no commercial success at all. Ed Wood rises from the dead to say it sucks. Aliens come and inflict Plan 9 upon us.

6. Michael Jordan decides to release a rock album featuring his own versions of "Smoke on the Water", "The Joker" and "Tub Thumping". He then goes on a huge concert tour with William Shatner billed as the worse music of all time.

7. The Simpsons come to an end with the Best Episode Ever. It's so good that the Simpsons producers decide that they've had enough, time to end it now.

8. I get laid. (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA)

9. Just kidding about #8.

10. Just kidding about #1-7...
----------------
Bush's $3 trillion state is allegedly a mark of "anti-government bias" on the right. -- Anthony Gregory

My predictions (none / 0) (#121)
by barooo on Thu Jan 06, 2005 at 03:20:14 PM EST

Since I was quoted in the article... Although I pretty much only got that one thing right :)

I stand by the mad cow prediction, I think that will end up being a big story this year and it will come to light that there have been dozens to hundreds of cases covered up, and one of the fast food companies will be found to have served a lot of infected beef.

Iraq will get worse, but the US will essentially declare victory and pull out so we can go on to attack $other_middle_eastern_country. The elections will be postponed, then when they finally are held will be marred by hundreds of casualties and massive intimidation. After the "coalition" pullout the country will largely split along ethnic lines after a lengthy and bloody mess.

Massive ohio voter fraud will be discovered, but largely ignored by the major media and no legal action will gain footing.

Dean becomes DNC chair, but says he will allow himself to be "drafted" for 2008 if there is enough popular demand.

Cheney resigns, claiming health problems. Condi becomes VP. Jeb Bush is initially floated as a possibility though.

In the sports world, the Illini will go undefeated, then lose in the final four round. Kansas wins the national title, but comes into the Dance as a 3 seed. The falcons win a very boring superbowl. The BCS system is "overhauled" but not really. In baseball, the steroids scandal will be a constant smouldering fire, but nothing is really done other than more stringent testing. Bonds' records are allowed to stand. A lackluster season with a surge at the end sees the Cubs going all the way this year, but losing to the yankees in 5, and as the poster stated, this pains me to predict. NBA basketball, Shaq leads his new team to a sweep in the finals. Some horse, but I don't know which one, will win 2/3 of a triple crown. The NHL season never happens.

In the economy, we'll see the start of a slide in housing, but it won't be dramatic. Interest rates will continue to rise slowly, the stock markets will do well, the dollar will slide and unemployment will rise as massive layoffs and offshoring continue.

Technology wise, ie will end up with about 70% marketshare by the end of the year. I stand by my prediction about filesharing of music declining and the IP freedom movement generally losing every case they bring forward. This will be the year that downloading movies from the net via bittorrent or the like will really go mainstream, but massive legal efforts at the end of the year will cut into this as well.

Episode III will suck ass.

King Kong will too.

No major terrorist attacks in the US, lots of them in Iraq and renewed violence in Israel and Europe.

Blogs will continue to be reviled and ridiculed by the mainstream media, will continue to become more popular and more people will have them more-or-less for themselves, but they won't be revolutionary or anything.

I can't think of anything else to predict.
--
[G. W. Bush makes] one long for the flashy showmanship of Calvin Coolidge, the easy eloquence of Dwight D. Eisenhower, the simple honesty of Richard Nixon.
P. M. Carpenter

Prediction (none / 1) (#136)
by GenerationY on Sat Jan 08, 2005 at 04:45:09 PM EST

You Fail It. I'm so going to clean up...

Well OK, heres my other prediction, slightly late.

For a number of reasons I predict a good year for the Far Right. By which I don't mean Repubs & Dems, but rather the full-on swastika and jackboot merchants (although they may disguise themselves in the garb of churchmen, in business suits etc). This applies both in Europe, the USA and possibly in Japan and Australasia as well.

In soiling themselves over terrorists and "foreigners" in general (outsourcing, "the French", expansion of the EU to poorer countries, anyone Not Like Us basically) people have let their guard down against fascists who will, as they always have in their time appeared patriotic, slick and carrying the answers to what are in reality insoluable problems of the human condition and society itself.

Yup. (none / 0) (#143)
by KrispyKringle on Tue Jan 11, 2005 at 11:10:40 PM EST

Dead on.

[ Parent ]
long term predilections (none / 0) (#149)
by the fish on Sat Jan 15, 2005 at 10:43:09 AM EST

my predictions (approx. five year rather than one):

major nuclear disaster somewhere (blamed on terrorists by the US - no actual proof)

iraq civil war. US get their asses kicked all the way back across the atlantic. they blame france/EU.

china and north korea make friends. japan gets a little worried. no one cares. japan sells all their US bonds. financial ruin in the US. nobody outside the US cares. you bastards brought it on yourselves and deserve it.

major disaster at the too-fucking-huge dam in china.

either:

  1. earthquake in japan / pacific / alaska. tsunami hits wet coast of US.
  2. yellowstone throws a hissy fit
end of hegemony and US sponsored terrorism for at least a week.

EU, china, india, pakistan, brazil all become major world players. US attacks them randomly.

bin laden lives to a ripe old age. his work is already done. al-quaeda continues to receive billions of (insert random denomination here) from world governments and no-one figures it out.  

everyone laughs as the untouchable "the pirate bay" torrent site gets shut down and admins asked to say sorry (and at least pretend to be sincere) as punishment.

SCO dies. no one cares. IBM sends them turds in the mail.

firefox develops security problems due to people not constantly updating to the latest patch. MS buys opera for integration into longhorn. firefox usage grows steadily anyway - but is only found to be better than IE rather than perfect.

organised crime involvement in the internet sparks an internecine vigilante war. spam continues unabated. all protocols become unusable without wearing protective glasses.

google removes first AOL, then yahoo from relevance. microsoft buys truck-loads of open source software and closes the sources. GPL brought to court and mired in crap.

longhorn is released minus many promised features. still insecure. still prettier than linux.

ibm buys apple. apple buys a music label. RIAA / MPAA continue to stiff their employees (artists). some idiot pays tom cruise 100 million to star in a movie that no one watches.

jordans tits explode on public tv


Stevodamus Predicts (none / 0) (#164)
by Winkhorst on Thu Dec 29, 2005 at 06:20:07 PM EST

1) The FBI will "discover" Osama bin Laden hiding in Howard Dean's basement 10 days before the congressional elections. 35% of the American people will believe them.

2) George Bush will receive a telephone call from God 10 days after the election telling him to nullify the results, which have the Democrats winning by a landslide, except in Ohio where they lose by one vote out of 3000 in a precinct that only has 900 eligible voters.

3) 10 days later George Bush is dragged kicking and screaming for his mommy from the White House by a mob chanting "No more fruitloops! No more fruitloops!" and then hung from the nearest tall tree, thus proving his own motto, "You can run but you can't hide."

4) Within the week, Justice Clarence Thomas Dada, in his first written opinion, declares himself president for life and pope of the New American Apostolic Church and Racquet Club.

5) A week later Thomas is dragged kicking and screaming for "Massah Scalia" from his Supreme Court chambers by an angry mob chanting "No more fruitloops! No more fruitloops."

6) Christmas Day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff declare a military emergency and bomb Dick Cheney's underground hideout, thus finally putting an end to the Saudi puppet regime in Washington. The military promises swift elections but appoints Arnold Schwarzenegger acting president. Schwarzenegger promptly dissolves congress and declares himself president for life.

7) New Years Day, an angry mob drags Schwarzenegger from the White House screaming "I will terminate you all!" while chanting "Another damn fruitloop! Another damn fruitloop!"
______ *****Welcome to Avalon*****

Predictions for 2005 | 164 comments (152 topical, 12 editorial, 0 hidden)
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